Would you do this?

Ah so your comment about a "secret spreadsheet" was not meant to cast doubt on whether it exists or not. Sure.

Which is an interesting passive-aggressive way of accusing me of lying about Gronkowski now.

Listen, all you have to do is ask. But you're not interested in the truth. You're just interested in taking jabs.

 

It's an inexact science. If anyone doubts that simply look at the high number of bust rates the past 15 years. And we are talking guy's who make 6 and 7 figure salaries to make these decisions.

Unfortunately I think some people are uncomfortable with missing on picks or being wrong about some aspect of a player. In fact I will go as far as to guess we have lost some pretty good posters because of their inability to handle being wrong in a game your bound to fail in. Sad.

I called Cam Newton a bust, remember thinking Reggie Williams was a can't miss WRONG on and on and on. But that doesn't stop me from making even more predictions sure to go wrong. Where's the fun in that.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

 

I think you are being a little hyper-sensitive about it. You made a claim about Graham. I pointed out that it was inconsistent with what you said at the time. You tried to explain that. People can make their own judgments about it.

You are someone who puts an extraordinary amount of info out into the public domain, on this site, Finheaven, Bleacher Report and back then, Universal Draft. I understand now that there was this spreadsheet that you didn't put into the public domain that had information inconsistent with what you did put into the public domain. Perhaps I shouldn't have used the word "secret." Would "non-public" have been better?

 

I don't think there are many people who won't admit they were wrong about some personnel projections. Pretty much everyone knows it is a very inexact science/art.

 

So when will we get your apology letter for being wrong about Wallace? ?

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

 

It only seemed inconsistent without context which I believe I've provided.

Yes I put a lot of opinions out publicly. Those opinions often change leading up to the draft. Leading up to that draft I had a very high opinion of Jimmy Graham and called him a 3rd round pick as early as November 2009. As early as December 2009 I was referring to Rob Gronkowski as among the elite players in all college football (up with A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson, etc.). Around February of 2010 I also fell in love with Dennis Pitta, while simultaneously doing a lot more work on Jermaine Gresham and realizing he's not nearly as good as I and others had previously thought. From then on there was a three-way race between Gronk, Graham and Pitta. Sometimes I felt one way, sometimes another, because there were big time wildcards involved. I knew next to absolutely nothing about the real story behind Gronkowski's back, and it was a source of discomfort for me. I did make it pretty clear that absent injury issues he's the top TE in the draft for sure. I waffled much more on Pitta versus Graham and explained several times that with a young and inexperienced QB (which Miami had) you might go for Pitta whereas if you had an experienced guy like a Kurt Warner (or in the Saints case Drew Brees) then you could take Graham with much less fear.

If you have questions as to why in the end my spreadsheet position rankings went Gronkowski-Graham-Pitta, and therefore when the pick came up I went with Graham, it was because to some degree I try and insulate my simuldrafts and position rankings away from needs that are TOO specific to the Miami Dolphins. Some degree of picking based on Dolphins needs is unavoidable, but I hate the idea of another GM's mistakes (especially recent ones) putting me in unfortunate situations to where I'm need-picking. I believe I read once a long time ago that you've been doing simuldrafts on draft day for many years so you know what I'm talking about. Hence my simuldraft for 2012 actually took Quinton Coples at #9 overall and Russell Wilson in the 2nd round. Hence my simuldraft for 2013 took Star Lotulelei at #12 overall.

 

Not sure what you think my opinion/position is on Wallace is. To clarify, in case you are confusing me with others, it is:

Wallace is a good receiver with a single exceptional attribute -- speed and deep threat ability. He is a top 15-30 WR, but not an elite one. He's not quite a one-trick pony as some have said, but he's not a great route runner, doesn't have great hands, and doesn't always fight for the jump ball. He does not open up the offense for other receivers, but no WR really does. That is an old wives' tale. His value is measured by the catches he makes, not the catches that others make. As such, he fits in there somewhere in the area of the top 15-30 WRs. If you look at his contract as a $60 million contract he is vastly overpaid. If you look at him as a $3.25 million cap hit for this year, he's a relative bargain. But he's a huge cap hit next year and certainly isn't worth $17.25M for the one year. And there is a lot of dead money if he is released, so that's not a super appealing option either.

 

I bet you dollars to doughnuts Calvin Johnson opens up the offense for other WRs. A deep threat spreads the defense a little. Sometimes all you need is a little.

 

What you were saying in April 2010 was that you were too concerned about Gronk's back to have him on your All Smiles List (which had 6 other TEs on it) and the back plus the fact he hadn't played in a year that really held you back on him. That was a perfectly logical position to take. Like Graham, everyone liked Gronk's talent. The question was how high are you willing to take him in light of the back issue. What you said here was that those big concerns were weighing very heaviliy on you. But if you say he nonetheless was atop your TE board, then fine.

Yes, I did do simulated Dolphin drafts back in the day. I just wrote down who I would have picked as the Dolphin picks came up. A few times I was so irritated at trades back that I just treated it like the Fins kept there original pick instead of the trade. Some of my simulated drafts were awesome and some sucked. Most fell somewhere in between.

If you say you took Wilson in the 2nd round of your 2012 draft, that's fine. On this board you said you did a mock simulation the week of the draft and took Weeden at #21 after making a trade for that pick. http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...aft-on-MockFour-in-the-Books&highlight=wilson You were pretty clearly on record as saying you had Weeden rated higher than Wilson. If what you are saying now is that in the real draft Weeden was gone when the Dolphins' second round pick came up, so you took Wilson, then OK.

 

That's the theory, but where's the evidence. CJ missed one game this year. In that game, Stafford's completion percentage was higher than his season average and while his yardage (262) was a little lower than his average, I think that is due to not having CJ to throw to, not any supposed impact on the other receivers. The other receivers did just fine. CJ also missed one game in 2010 and in that game the Detroit QB's completion% was again higher than his season average and his yardage (258) was about 20 yards higher than when CJ played. Since CJ has been in Detroit, the other receivers have not had particularly notable efficiency numbers.

 

I think you meant make an out 7 out of 10 times. Only on the Mets would one be considered awesome for striking out 7 out of 10 times.

 

As I said. The back issues were scary but not something I ultimately felt I could speak to one way or another. I often strip those issues out of my mocks, same as character issues, to the extent that I'm not comfortable I've got my arms wrapped around the real issue. If I can't speak to the issue I have to go by the talent. If Rob Gronkowski were still on the board at the pick then the pick would've been Rob Gronkowski.

Yes I had Weeden higher than Wilson, never said any different so I don't know what bug is up your *** about it.

That was a mock draft game in which I could interact with other GMs and trade up, trade down, etc. It was not realistic. There were players in the game that weren't even available to take. I executed a similar game the following year in which I picked up CB D.J. Hayden (the #12 overall pick) in the 6th round. Trades in that game were commonly executed at prices that would never happen in the real NFL Draft, including the trade I executed to move up and get Weeden. I remember a similar game we all talked about last year in which you could trade down pretty freely and I believe I ended up with 30+ players in that game.

Fact of the matter is when it came time to stop playing games and just decide what I'm doing when the pick is up, I made the decision that I should go with Quinton Coples at #9 overall and then just see what happens in the 2nd round. If Brandon Weeden fell to that 2nd round pick, you bet your bottom I would have taken him. He didn't. Russell Wilson did. End of story.

And with that I'm done conversing on the subject. You're turning this into some pathetic Ken Starr witch hunt in which you start searching back for old posts, posting them out of context, and forcing me to go out of my way explaining them. All because you have a vendetta. So I'm just going to stop it right here and take the reminder that on the rare occasions when I actually do hit the "View Post" button on your posts, I regret it about 90% of the time.

 

Can you tell that I am not a baseball guy?

 

Would it make you feel better if I throw the Astros in there too then?

 

I have no vendetta against you. But if I see you or anyone else making claims that seem to directly contradict what they have said in the past I will call them on it if I have to the time to do it. If KB21 starts singing the praises of Earl Thomas and claims he would have taken him in the 1st round I'll call BS on that. If the Dolphins win the Super Bowl and Ireland wins Exec of the Year and LBsFinest claims he always felt Ireland was a great GM, I'll call BS on that. If Rafael claims that he knew Peyton Manning would come back from injury to shatter every passing record, I'll call BS on that. If Disgustipate starts claiming that he always felt Philbin would be a coaching genius, I'll call BS on that. If Padre31 starts singing the praises of advanced stats, I'll call BS on that. If Shouright comes back and starts screaming for the Dolphins to trade for Ted Ginn, I'll call BS on that. But that hasn't happened with those other guys. The world doesn't revolve around you. Mine certainly doesn't.

 

It worked for me in Fantasy Football. I do not think it would work in the NFL. People have to realize so many of these players are products of the QB throwing them the ball. It's not to say Graham is not a great tight end. He is. But his production would drop significantly here. Enough to where he wouldn't be worth the money to acquire him. Tannehill is on his way, but he's no Drew Brees. Not yet anyway...

 

The fact that you compare statements I've made about Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Russell Wilson to those examples you state above shows your obsession. All three of the above are guys that I went out of my way for months to heap praise upon. All three of the above are guys that I stated many times that I really like. Yet making statements about my taking them is as much of a contradiction as if LBsFinest's suddenly liked Jeff Ireland. Riiiight. You're not stretching things. Not at all.

Here's a fact. You had no idea what you were going to find when you started searching through old posts. All you need as an excuse to do so is to see me say something like "I believe I drafted Graham in my simuldraft". That could've been true or not true. You didn't know. But the claim itself was all the cue you needed in order to execute searches and spend a bunch of time digging to see if that's true. Obsessed much?

 

I'm sorry if I didn't calibrate each of those examples to precisely the level of your claims. Yes, the LBsFinest example is more extreme. It was just an example with a bit of hyperbole. I'll replace it with if Boomer says he never liked Mark Ingram. Better?

 

And they also scored just 9 points in that game against a 21st ranked passing defense (today) that has given up the 7th most passing TDs. They didn't score less than 21 the whole year. The next week with a clearly hobbled Johnson Stafford throws for 4 TDs to WRs (and 1 RB) not named Calvin, one of them Reggie. You can argue statistics all day but if you're telling me, Hartline doesn't benefit when a Patrick Peterson or Joe Haden is occupied with someone else, well we're just going to agree to disagree. There are all sorts of factors on why #2s and #3s do better when the #1 is gone and that can include targets. But moving a safety over and the #1 CB off of a #2 or #3 WR is going to benefit. Not having a safety crash the box is going to help you. Maybe not enough to be a complete game changer but it helps.

 

Earl Thomas. That's one I regret not liking enough.

It's one of those guys...you know, you like him but do you LIKE like him? That's what I'm referring to with go with the flow people. Go with the flow people say "everyone liked Earl Thomas", or "everyone liked Rob Gronkowski". But if you take Earl Thomas with your pick at #12 overall...you're not just a go with the flow guy. You're putting something out there. I had Earl Thomas on the favorites list. But I didn't take him. I was a go with the flow guy on him I think.

Your pick #2 that was Jason Worilds...what round? Didn't the Dolphins lack a 2nd round pick that year after the Marshall trade? They didn't get that pick back until they traded down from #12 to #28 I think, and that's how they got Koa Misi. In my simuldraft I had the Dolphins picking at #12, #73, #119, #145, #163, #212 and #252.

When did Earl end up being drafted that year, anyway? Was it late enough to have taken him at #28 overall?

 

I actually caught that too (go SF Giants!) and slightly chuckled. To myself. Striking out 7 out of 10 would be a record. I mean, get the ball on the bat why don't ya?

 

How is Jerry Hughes doing now after a change in teams? I liked him in that draft mainly because I was hoping for a pass rusher.

 

At least I didn't say something like "score a goal 3 out of 10 times".

I played Little League for like five years too. My coaches must have hated me. No desire to learn the sport whatsoever.

 

Well...certain people aren't going to like this, but Hughes is doing very well in Buffalo.

And by "very well" I mean he's the 3rd most efficient and productive pass rusher in the NFL amongst 3-4 outside linebackers...a position he should have been playing from the start (and would have been, in Miami).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/da...ason=2013&stype=r&pos=3op&teamid=-1&filter=50

He's got 9 sacks, 5 hits and 33 pressures in 252 pass rush snaps. He's more efficient than Justin Houston, who is having a hell of a year (that's a regret, I didn't like Houston coming out near as much as I should have). Only Elvis Dumervil and Lamarr Woodley have better pass rush efficiency as 3-4 OLBs than Jerry Hughes.

 

The Jerry Hughes thing brings me to a second point I meant to raise when Fin-O teased about Hughes.

When you learn to actually put yourself out there and end up wrong a lot, you also learn something else. You learn about the reasons you end up wrong, the random noise that can happen, premature conclusions, etc. The ironic thing is those things teach you patience with respect to your own evaluations.

I probably run into this more on Finheaven than here but when a guy you liked temporarily doesn't do well there's often this push to get you to pop like a pimple and admit you were wrong. We're talking insanely early too. I had one guy over there basically accuse me of thinking I'm never wrong simply because halfway through the preseason of 2012 I was not prepared to admit that Michael Egnew is a complete bust and should be cut. I'm not joking. Halfway through the guy's first training camp.

But if you know you're going to be wrong and you've spent a lot of time examining the sources of why you were wrong whether it be getting too excited about too small of a sample of plays, etc...you also learn to be patient when a guy has success that you didn't see coming, or doesn't have success that you did see coming. You know how much random noise goes into those things and so you learn to be patient and to stick to your own evaluations (as long as they were well founded in the first place, and only you know whether that is the case or not) until the fat lady has sung.

I actually listed Jerry Hughes before as a mistake but in reality he might not have been. He's finally playing the position he was always supposed to play and miracle of miracles, he's become one of the best pass rushers at that position in the league all the sudden.

 

Yeah, it certainly hurts to not have CJ out there. He may well end up being the best WR of all time. But the effect when he isn't there is that you don't have a 6-5, 245 lb guy who runs a 4.3 and has a 40" vertical jump with great hands and body control. It's not that he's enabling the other receivers to kill you. Their other receivers have never killed anyone, with or without him.

And I am telling you Hartline doesn't benefit from that. Hartline was our #1 receiver last year and had his best season without a great WR opposite him. Much better than he ever had with Brandon Marshall there. And it's not just because of targets -- he was notably more efficient with his catch percentage and yards per target. And his efficiency has not gone up with Wallace here. His WR rating is virtually identical but his yards per target and pards per pass route run are down from last year.

Whether a safety is crashing the box depends on a lot of factors -- the quality of the running game, down and distance, etc. The identity of the WRs really isn't one of them. If it was, you'd see the teams with the top WRs having the dominant running games. But we don't see that. Many of the team with the best running games have no good receivers and some of the ones with the best WRs have bad running games. When Marshall came here our runnign game didn't improve notably. And it hasn't improved with Wallace.

 

Had the Dolphins not taken Brandon Marshall in trade (and I was against that trade though I know you were for it) then I'd have most definitely taken Dez Bryant. That was my guy until the trade, then Brandon Graham became my guy. And yes if I had accepted the trade down from 12 to 28 then I'd have taken Jerry Hughes as a 3-4 OLB.

Cue someone engaging an advanced search to find some statement from me that looks ambiguous about Dez Bryant, absent context.

 

YES. I liked Sam Shields a lot as well. I did a big write up on him for this board, I think. I regret that he was not on my final favorites list. The part that sucks about that is knowing I really liked the guy so there's a chance excluding him was just a brain fart. At one point I know I suggested a mock draft that included Sam in the 7th round I believe. But he wasn't on the final list. Oh well.

 

I have no probolem with Jerry Hughes doing well, although I'd have preferred it not be for Buffalo. I think its nice that he's finally become a productive player after 3 seasons of doing little. I was never a huge Hughes fan, but when we got into this in the past, it was because you were excoriating Ireland for his picks even though you applauded many of them at the time and even though the guys you said you'd have picked haven't done as well. I still think Odrick is the better and more versatile player than Hughes, but good for Hughes that he's salvaging his career.

 

To be honest I'm kind of happy with my haul from the simuldraft that year though.

Brandon Graham isn't getting a ton of opportunities because of the presence of Trent Cole, who is still pretty awesome even at 31 years old. They need a straight man to play opposite Cole and that's where Connor Barwin comes in. That's not a Brandon Graham, who is more of an all out pass rusher. When Cole moves on they're going to insert Graham and not miss a beat. If you look at the pass rush efficiency numbers, Brandon Graham has consistently been one of the most efficient pass rushers at any position in the NFL from 2010 to present day. Maybe the most.

After that, getting Jimmy Graham and Kam Chancellor is pretty good. Cam Thomas is an OK role player.

 

I was extremely high on Brandon Graham, I think I drafted him and traded for him 2 years after in the GML....

Damn how did that guy not pan out. (Out of position???)

 

Purely a lack of opportunities, IMO. It's like if after the 2009 season you wondered aloud how Cam Wake managed to not pan out. He was panning out. He just wasn't getting enough snaps to show it in a way that gets peoples' attention.

 

Always put him as a rush WOLB in my 3-4's, I saw Lamar Woodley in him.

Oops.

 

Keller isn't getting a decent contract anywhere. He has missed a year of football and coming off injury. Keller will be aware of this and so he could re-sign quite cheaply. Clay is having basically a pro bowl year and I think Clay and Keller would be the great 2 TE tandem the coaches envisage. They're disappointed they can't use the 2 TEs sets effectively this year.

I would probably not trade (if franchised) or sign for Graham but focus on the OL, personally.

 

According to KFFL hartline's catch percentage was 58%, 53% (two years with Marshall). All alone it was 56.5%. About average. This year he's 62.5%. A sizable bump over his career average.

His rookie year was in the 50s too but that's a real small sample size. His yards per target are indeed down due to wallace taking over the deep routes. Hence his catch percentage is also higher.

Mike Sherman earlier this year stated they were seeing a lot of two-safety looks on Wallace.

Straight from an NFL coaches mouth, not mine. You see, the attention Wallace gets creates opportunities for the offense. Whether we take advantage of this is a different story. But are you going to argue with the NFL coach here? If one WR is pulling the top CB and distracting two safeties how does that not help?

 

I loved him as well, I think he's been playing well, but I'll tell you what imo his problem has been besides some early injuries...he's lazy, and he hasn't dedicated himself in the gym, it's something I detected in college but overlooked it because I loved his talent.