Would you do this?

Honestly, it's not that big a deal. I can see why he'd be skeptical given his and my past history and I'll admit that what I wrote in that post-draft piece can be misleading if taken incorrectly and out of context.

What he's got to understand (but not very interested in doing so, given our past history) is that I had a short list of maybe like five or six of my absolute favorites in the draft and Pitta was on it. But that didn't mean he was tops even at his position. I had Gronkowski and Graham both rated above him but they didn't feel like "my" guys as much as Pitta did. I think I had a similar crush on Corey Wootton as a for instance. Doesn't mean I had Wootton ranked above the likes of a Jason Pierre-Paul or Derrick Morgan. Just that I was, in Simon's words at the time, "Wootton crazy". So if I was going to offer up kind of a humorous stream of consciousness I'm probably going to talk about Wootton even though I've got guys ranked above him.

What I don't particularly like is that when I sit here and say I'm opening up a spreadsheet I created in 2010 with a simuldraft I did that year, and I say Jimmy Graham is there, that there's this insinuation that I'm just making it up.

 

I liked John Jerry. I really hated the guards that year. He was one of the few I was OK with.

 

I do not agree with that. From the 2010 draft, about 23 of the 34 players picked have been better than throwaways to varying degrees.

 

IMO, that is an indication the game has passed him by.

 

I was beating that drum since before the Pats and Ravens doubled up on TEs. It was one of the reasons that I believed Parcells was out of date. I've always wondered what Ireland's opinion on this was. He's taken two TEs in the 4th since Parcells' departure (I think the Egnew draft was after BP left?). Is that his assessment of the position's importance as well? He did target Keller, but that wasn't a big contract (fortunately, given the injury).

 

I guess it depends on what your standards are, doesn't it?

Just because a guy plays doesn't mean he's not a throwaway. A lot of guys play just because they're there, not because they deserve it or play well. I'm just gonna go ahead and guess that to you Ed Dickson isn't a throwaway. But to me he is.

I think 2010 might have been a pretty good year for 3rd rounders, anyway. If you go just one year earlier to 2009, I don't know how you could come away with any fewer than 19 or 20 throwaways out of 36 picks.

Obviously subjective though.

 

Yes it depends on how one defines the word. IMO if a 3rd rounder makes the roster and contributes significantly then he is not a throwaway. Dickson is not, and neither is Jerry. IMO.

 

The Jerry pick was perfectly reasonable at the time. He was a talented guy. Still is. And he filled a need. No, he hasn't played up to his talent. But at the time nobody could have known that. And Graham was a very talented guy too. Nobody thought otherwise. But a lot of people looked at the fact that he was not productive in college and was very raw and felt he shouldn't be picked before the middle rounds. Some said 3rd, some said 4th and some said 5th. But nobody thought he was a first rounder, even though from a pure talent standpoint he clearly is/was. And no NFL team felt strongly enough about him to even take him in the 2nd or 3rd. The Saints took a shot in the 4th and it paid off for them. Good for them.

 

Since around the final month of his 2009 season (I remember some November games that were very impressive), Jimmy Graham was to me a 3rd rounder. At one point I thought he could potentially even be justifiable in the 2nd round if you had a need and depending on who else was available, but in the end I felt like his being so incredibly raw was too much a hindrance to go in the 2nd round, especially if you had a young QB that was just trying to get his feet under him. I believe I wrote that you could justify a higher pick more easily if you had a veteran like a Kurt Warner or someone like that.

I don't think anyone could have put him in the 1st round.

I'm still just not sure why we'd isolate a single 3rd round pick and be like man that's when we knew Jeff Ireland was bad. People by now know that I personally don't believe Jeff Ireland is a good GM, but I'm not about to do that about a 3rd round pick. The entire NFL was surprised to some degree about Jimmy's success.

 

Isn't TE a position where, even though raw, physical size and talent wins out? From Antonio Gates, to Graham, to Julius Thomas, former BBall players with little to no football experience just tearing up the position? I mean, you have to know your playbook, and be able to block (sort of ...) but they're not running precision routes here. The only people with comparable size are on the Dline and maybe OLB spots. Know the playbook, run to a spot, beat the snot out of your guy.

 

I think the argument is that TE production depends largely on the scheme and the offense and the QB's target preferences. Before Graham was in NO and in his rookie year when he didn't do much, NOs TEs were still very productive because Brees likes to throw to TEs. And that was also a part of Gates' success in SD (which continued under Rivers). Julius Thomas is having a nice year but every Peyton Manning TE catches a lot of passes, whether its Dallas Clark, Jacob Tamme, Ken Dilger or Marcus Pollard. I think the passing rules in recent years have enhanced the role if the TE and allowed them to be bigger weapons than in the past, but that trend was not nearly so clear in 2010 when Graham was drafted.

 

I don't know that I personally see any position-based rules that govern the situation. If you can't take a guard in the 3rd round when can you take one? There's always going to be tight ends and receivers available in every round that are intriguing to someone. It's all about how you feel about the individual player.

I liked Graham, a lot...second best TE in the draft to me behind Gronk and slightly ahead of Pitta whom I raved about for ages (well, more like between February and April). I would have taken Graham in the 3rd round. I think 2nd round is where I started to shy away from Graham particularly because Miami had a younger quarterback and I thought having a guy that was raw in his understanding of offense could be a bit of double-trouble.

But...a lot of teams didn't take Graham. A lot of teams missed. This is just a criticism that I don't get, as far as it being isolated a lot. I think it's just a piece of straw on the haystack. But a lot of other GMs have that same piece of straw on their haystack.

 

Not sure if you were addressing me but my point is, TE is one position where being raw doesn't necessarily hurt as much as say QB. If you're big fast and strong, and have good hands, good chance you'll be productive on the field due to he huge mismatch TE's present.

 

Yes tight end is a position where guys with sparing football backgrounds have made some hay but that doesn't mean they shouldn't ever be dinged ever to any degree because of inexperience. I don't believe you just go ahead and do a straight grade based on athleticism metrics and then figure the rest will sort itself out. If that were the case then the "As uuusge" guy would still be here.

 

I think it depends on the offense. If you have an offense designed to get the ball to the TE, I think you are right. If not, it may be a lot of wasted talent. Arguably, teams should mold their schemes aroudn that talent, but many do not. There have been a lot of TEs with great size, speed and athleticism who just haven't done much.

 

I don't know anyone that doesn't trust that what you say is the truth..

 

Let me just say though that I do agree with Section126 in general on the topic of getting a second tight end.

For as well as Brandon Gibson did as a slot receiver, Ryan Tannehill's passing success with 3+ WRs is not inspiring.

I'm showing 252 of 410 (61%) for 2752 yards (6.7 YPA), 16 TDs and 14 INTs, with 41 sacks.

But with 0 to 2 WRs in the formation, Tannehill is 48 of 74 (65%) for 563 yards (7.6 YPA), 4 TDs and 0 INTs, with 7 sacks.

I don't think Jimmy Graham is on the table if he's franchised. You don't send two 1st round picks for anyone anymore especially on top of a huge contract, unless we're talking about a guy you're certain is a franchise quarterback (where you have none).

But IF the Dolphins were to take care of some of their OL woes with money and they're able to free up a higher draft pick for a tight end...then I would really imagine that a Troy Niklas, Eric Ebron or Jace Amaro would be fantastic to pair up with Charles Clay.

 

I'd just assume drop it. He accused me of lying. I'm sure it was out of spite for past exchanges.

 

Also if you look at a different stat source you have Ryan Tannehill completing 33 of 44 passes (75%) for 376 yards (8.5 YPA), 3 TDs and 0 INTs with 2 or 3 TEs on the field. He's taken 5 sacks on those plays but also run the football 4 times for 5 yards.

That's a 123 passer rating when you have a 2-TE or 3-TE personnel grouping.

 

Clay & Keller will be killer bookends when attacking... the TE stable is flush with Sims & Egnew.

 

I don't think you can count on Dustin Keller for anything at this point. Miami might, but he won't be happy with the contract they offer him. He's going to look at Brent Grimes as an example of the kind of contract you can get even if you're coming off a big injury and they're going to offer him significantly less than that, if anything at all.

If he gets wise to the reality of his situation and accepts a very minimal deal then I could see Miami being interested because they have Dion Sims whom I'm sure they'd like to investigate some, and they have Charles Clay stepping up as well. But right now I see a big chance that he gets pissed off at their offer and leaves out of spite.

 

IMO the multiple TE formation is difficult for a defense to match up against if you have one or two decent or better receivers among those TEs.

 

Nah he's just keeping you to your standards that you've set.

 

By accusing me of lying? That's um...interesting.

 

Hah. That's true though, for some reason those guys all really stand out to Dolphins fans as the ones that got away. Brees I get, because the position is so important. The fixation on Boldin and Graham, I'm not sure I get as much.

 

These new so called hybrid TEs are beastly wide receivers really. So is Marshall and Jeffrey and Boldin and Davis for example. You have to have beasts at WR position. We have none. Clay is kinda developing but it's been 3 years in the works. We have none and we need 3 more beasts, and we are stuck with Wallace and Hartline. That is a problem.

 

Because, these aren't just guys that were good and we didn't draft. These were guys we targeted and either passed (Boldin) or were too low on our valuation (Graham).

Brees of course, we missed twice.

 

Was that as uuuusge guy physically impressive? Aka Graham/Julius Thomas/Gates? He was getting blown off blocks if I remember. Very weak.

 

I remember CK having a pretty good idea pre draft about Graham, huge upside but a developmental risk. Insert Drew Brees and that development gets fast tracked.

So to try and criticize him for not calling Graham a beast at THAT point is pretty whack.

Now if you want to nitpick him, use the over fascination of Jerry Hughes to your advantage.

Trolling 101: instructor Fin-O

 

- Brees because we desperately needed a QB in place of Fiedler but instead Wanny pounded RBs into the dirt (Lamar Smith) or drove them into early retirement (Ricky Williams). Instead Wanny took GD Jamar Fletcher, who we didn't need and became a bust. Also, we had multiple chances to get Brees and pissed them away for first Fielder and later Culpepper when Saban was here.

- Boldin because GD Wanny took a backup f***ing LB in Eddie Moore when we needed a WR. Moore wasn't needed, couldn't stay healthy, and was a complete bust.

- Graham because we could have used a dynamic TE and instead took John f****** Jerry instead cause Sparano fell in love with him at the N/S game for some damn reason. Jerry has never done anything but have a decent game here and there when he is in shape.

 

mike Sherman being fired would be a great addition by subtraction , yet I would trade for Brandon Pettigrew and then draft all olinemen in the draft.

 

It was hard to predict Culpepper falling that far. He had one of the greatest seasons ever for a QB. But he needed a system that used his pre-injury legs, and gave him half the field to read with sick WRs. Lol.

People blame Saban for Brees but it was not his fault. He wanted Brees, and wanted him bad. But every doctor except Brees' said he was a higher risk. In hindsight a 5 year deal with option to cancel after 2 might have been worth the risk.

 

Was hoping to see a bit more from Sims this year, but oh well. I guess when he was in, we needed him for extra protection, but was hoping to see some more red zone production from. Maybe next year.

 

I didn't accuse you of lying. I was simply holding you accountable for what you said at the time, as compared to what you are saying now. I pointed out that your post-draft review written a day or two after the draft indicated that you wanted Pitta at that spot and made no mention of Graham. You explained that you were just joking around about that. OK. I could have called you on your current claim that you had Gronk as one of the top 2 TEs in that draft, but I let that go.

As I said before, if your personal spreadsheet reflects your true picks and what you wrote here and on Universal Draft was just stream of consciousness joking around, I'll take your word for it.

 

No way the Saints let him go.

 

Here's the thing. Just ask me. People pretend like I run away from evaluation mistakes. I think that's more a reflection of them and how they think than it is me or how I think. Just ask me. I'll give you ten of them right now:

01. Colt Brennan is one of the top quarterbacks in the 2008 Draft.
02. Jerry Hughes is going to be an awesome pass rusher.
03. Sam Bradford is a franchise quarterback that teams should be trying to trade up to the #1 overall pick for.
04. Christian Ponder is worthy of a 1st round pick if you're desperate for a QB.
05. Blaine Gabbert is worthy of a 1st round pick if you're desperate for a QB.
06. Dolphins should grab Culpepper over Brees because Brees has an injury to his throwing shoulder whereas Culpepper has an injury to his knee and you don't throw with your knee.
07. Peyton Manning is too risky to throw a ton of money at as a free agent.
08. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the draft but Braylon Edwards is second best and may be better at his position.
09. Jarron Gilbert is a future star on the defensive line.
10. James-Michael Johnson is a really good linebacker prospect.

Hell that's just off the top of my head. If you've been evaluating draft prospects long enough and you've been evaluating them the RIGHT way, then you're intimately familiar with the concept of being wrong. It's like being a hitter in baseball. You damn well better be comfortable with striking out because even if you're awesome you're going to strike out 7 out of 10 times.

I find most people don't really evaluate prospects the right way though. They go with the flow and then believe that absolves them of responsibility when players surprise them.

 

I blame Saban for Brees versus Culpepper because he was privy to information that we the public were not privy to. The weekend prior to Saban's final answer to Drew over the phone, Brees had been in a visit with James Andrews for an important progress check to see whether the attachments he had put into place during the surgery had taken hold and if he was healing properly. During that progress check, for the very FIRST time since the surgery, James Andrews gave Brees a prognosis of full recovery.

Even Andrews himself was reticent to say how successful the surgery would be prior to that checkup, because he'd had to use more attachments during the surgery than he'd ever used before as it was a full 360 degree tear of the rotator cuff (if I recall right). The fact that Andrews saw what he needed to see to go from being wary to giving a prognosis of full recovery was a significant change in the equation and Nick Saban simply ignored it. He listened instead to doctors that did not do the surgery, were not privy to any progress checks, and were speaking purely in theories and hypotheticals...instead of listening to the guy that not only is the foremost expert in his field but had the most intimate knowledge of the surgery.

So yeah I do kind of blame Saban on that decision. I blame myself for agreeing with Saban's decision, but at the same time Saban knew information that we didn't, and that information was game-changing IMO.

 

Seriously. That's great bro. Shows character. There should be a thread where we all admit our mistakes. Maybe it will keep all of our egos in check. Everyone from the professionals to the average fan has plenty of hits and misses. Kudos.