Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 - Miami Dolphins Chapter - (ALERT: Pessimism)

The max protect thing is interesting but it's also a chicken-or-egg observation with respect to Ryan Tannehill's play-action passing. They coincide with one another because a bunch of those play-action passes were max protect. So which is it? Was Miami inordinately successful on play-action passes because they were usually in a max protect? Or was Miami inordinately successful on max protect passes because they were usually play-action?

And I'm scratching my head at some of those video observations. So John Jerry was a consistently good offensive lineman while Richie Incognito was laughably bad. And Olivier Vernon's tape was much better than his stats.

It's opposite day.

 

I think they see Wallace as being a factor, probably similar to the factor that Hartline was last year. BH got 1000+ yrds as the #1 WR, but how will he fare as the #2 WR this year ?? I think the whole season, despite the issues of the OL, lands on the right shoulder of RT. If he takes the next step forward, the running game likely will be improved and the OL, by the nature of increased production will look better. Now the OL could really tank it and that could affect Tanny, even if he's taking those strides we think he will, but it seems a bit unlikely that it'll tank worse than where it was a year ago which was not as bad as some years for us until the injuries took their toll late in the season. In fact, I'd say the last quarter of the season is when Tanny started to look a bit better and the OL was in it's demise at that point...

 

Technically true but Martin has always been a LT so he'll actually be moving to a position he's more comfortable with.

 

No, it CAN take time to gel. And I think this staff will make the decision early.

 

IDK, our interior Oline will be playing together for its 3rd straight year. That seems like continuity to me, and IMO the concept of continuity is most relevant on the interior.

There might not be "continuity" at right tackle but I'd bet my rear end virginity that Clabo upgrades the position regardless. (considering he's replacing two players, Garner & Martin, who weren't continuous elements of the line last year to begin with)

 

No disputes there. But I don't think that was FO's point. I think their point was that he only played next to Richie Incognito for four games last year, and that's why his being new detracts from chemistry.

Also, they seem to have it out for Richie Incognito pretty badly for whatever reason, and think Dallas Thomas is going to win the job over him in camp. So that would mean Martin won't have played any games next to his new left guard.

Whole thing is weird. You call me a pessimist but I'm predicting 8 wins. They're predicting 6.1 wins. There's some I agree with in this piece, but there's much I don't.

 

I understand that but if Philbin pushes hard for Louis to start you think Ireland would cut him?

 

If they're predicting 6.1 wins then I'd like to know how many they predicted last year when we won 7. 3 wins?

 

The Dallas Thomas pick gets better by the week. He's a seriously good insurance policy. He may be starting if his training camp performances bear fruit. If he's 50/50 to start and we get a O-Lineman injured (touch wood it wont happen) he's a shoe in which gives him game time experience. Im hoping Lance Louis comes into training camp healthy. Some seriously good competition at Guard.

 

No I think it goes without saying that when it comes final cut dates the coaches have a very large say on what happens there. In fact some would say that the final 53 man roster is entirely at the coaches' discretion.

 

I don't know how many they predicted. I'll venture a guess and say it was around 6 wins, off by 1 win...perhaps.

 

That's fair enough. Although, if they estimated 6 last year and we exceeded that, I don't see how they can estimate 6 again this year despite Miami making some nice additions and obvious upgrades in FA, having no aging players on the decline, and having a handful of players at key positions who are still ascending, not to mention what appears to be a quality head coach with an extra year of experience.

 

So you were just checking to see if I knew who the GM was?

 

Question... would you rather win only 7 games this year but have the coaching staff make decisions for the long-term good of the team, so we have a greater chance of winning in 2014 and beyond, or win 9+ games this year and have a higher chance of regressing in 2014 and beyond?


This comes into play in certain decisions, like Rafael (I think) mentioned with choosing who to start at certain positions like OL based on the long term benefit of the team developing even if there is short term pain.

 

Don't know. Hard to say.

I could imagine perhaps they don't think Miami was as good as its record last year. I don't necessarily think that's true personally. Miami lost some close games (4) and won some close games (3). They lost some not so close games (5) and they won some not so close games (4). Their win total was within the range predicted by their points scored and allowed.

Close wins and losses are not random, of course. There are teams that will statistically deviate from random by being extremely consistent in close games (good and bad). New England's Super Bowl years were always to me a great example of showing that their ability to win close games was not random. I believe from 2001 to 2004 they were 19-3 in games decided by less than a touchdowns. Why do I segment this measure into games decided by 6 points or less? Because it means literally one play, one drive, could have changed the outcome of the game. Not just a play resulting in a tied ball game, going to overtime where things may further develop. I mean, one play or one drive and the lead has changed. Indianapolis the year they won the Super Bowl, same thing. I remember watching their first handful of games that year. They'd been dominant the year before, if you recall. There was talk of a perfect season. They were beating opponents by a ton every week. They outscored opponents by 192 points that year (2005). But I was more impressed in 2006 when they opened up the season with 9 straight wins, and 5 of them were by less than a touchdown (with 2 more by a touchdown). I thought that was a better predictor of their championship abilities that year, than the mere fact they were 9-0.

On the other hand, Miami in 2007 showed the direct opposite. Their consistently losing close games was not coincidental.

But outside of those rare cases that statistically deviate from random (I would argue Indianapolis in 2012 was one such case), logically speaking close games are far more subject to bad bounces and other random occurrences than games where a team won by more. So I think looking at marginal differences in how a team did in the close ones may help if you're trying to turn how good a team actually was into more of a range (e.g. "6 to 8") than just a discrete number (e.g. "7"). So anyway that's why I look at how Miami did in the close ones in 2012 and see they did about the same there as they did in the not so close ones, and I think...well, this was about a 7-9 team. Could've been 6-10, could've been 8-8.

 

Wow.

 

I'd mind this less if Tannehill had taken a few sacks instead of throwing picks. If our sack rate improves this year, we still need his TD:INT ratio to improve too.

In my opinion, a 2:1 TD to INT ratio is baseline for success in this league.

 

Well then... if they are right again, we are looknig at a 6 win season this year.

Damn, that DEFINITELY won;t match fan expectations, if it happens, and probably not OWNER expectations either.

Would that threaten Ireland or Philbin's positions, if fans and the owner asked 'How did we get worse?". How we looked in those losses becomes very important indeed.

 

At the risk of various people using this comment as an excuse to go off topic and go on the offensive...I don't think Jeff Ireland survives a 6-10 record. This is the final year in his contract and though it doesn't widely go advertised I think Steve Ross is sending a message by not extending him that he wants to see the optimism flow through to the bottom line this year.

 

Ah. Okay.

This is why I hate hearing Barry Jackson's sources say we plan to leave Odrick at DE and rotate Vernon with Dion. That is the worst plan ever to increase sack totals. That's 75% 'let's do the same thing that didn't work last year' with a small sprinkle of 'Let's put a player with effective pass rush tools out there." Maybe it's to bring Dion along slowly, but still. Doesn't give one hope of a drastic spike up in sack production.

 

I am concerned this would be the case, and yet I think even if we win 6 this year, if we look good in those losses (as good as one can look losing anyways) then this IS a team headed in theright direction. I would hate to see our continuity destroyed AGAIN.

The worst enemy this team has right now, imo, are the very high fan expectations. Because Ross will get caught up in the zeitgeist of fan sentiment when fans are not renewing tickets etc.

****. If we go 6-10 but lose competitively to the playoff teams, I hope Ireland and Philbin get one more year.

There is pressure on Tannehill to carry this team to no less than 8-8. Big pressure, imo.

 

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water.

 

While I love the idea of Dion getting some looks at LB on run downs, I HATE the idea of Vernon playing end in nickel while Dion plays LB. Hate it.

If that's Coyle's plan, I want to poop in Coyle's hat.

 

That's the thing about Football Outsiders, PFF, KC Joyner's publication back when he had one, etc, they do a good job in general but with 32 teams to cover they can't really afford to drill down on specific teams the way a guy like you can if you only have one team to worry about.

I agree with you on Incognito. I'll admit, he does whiff badly (think John Kruk fooled by a change-up) from time to time and he looks downright ugly at times when he's trying to move in space but overall he was a solid LG and IMO he's staying at LG for this season at least. The plan is for Jerry and Louis to fight it out at RG that seems pretty obvious to me. The only scenario where Cogs slides to RG this season would be if Jerry and Louis both bomb/get hurt and/or Thomas comes in looking like Larry Allen re-incarnated. I could see Cogs moving to RG next season if the team doesn't re-sign Jerry or Louis while Thomas goes to LG.

I don't think 6.1 wins even deserves discussion TBH and while I disagree with it I think 8-8 is entirely possible. What I was alluding to as pessimistic is the practice of poking holes in the team w/o poking holes in the our opponents in a similar way. For example, the Jets will be breaking in 2 new guards this season, the Bills lost Levitre at LG and will have a new RT as well. The Patriots return all five starters on their OL but as we all know they've taken a few hits at WR and TE. The Colts will have a new LG-RT (Donald Thomas-Godser Cherilus). The Saints lost Jermon Bushrod, the Ravens lost Matt Birk, etc etc etc. so if we're talking about OL continuity in the context of why Miami may struggle w/o mentioning these things then yes I'd call that less than objective.

 

I agree. Very difficult situation.

But I think it does matter HOW the 6 wins and 10 losses come about, as well. Think of the team as a whole as a heat map. If certain parts of the heat map are showing up red, those parts are going to connect with the General Manager more than other parts.

For example, the defense. Between swapping out two 1000 snap linebackers for two other linebackers that are making a total of about $12 million a year, allowing Sean Smith to walk and replacing him with Brent Grimes, drafting two high round rookie corners, re-signing Chris Clemons to a one year deal and drafting Dion Jordan, Jeff Ireland not only has his hands all over a large portion of the defense, he has had his hands all over a large portion of the defense very recently. If those changes don't seem to be working...fingers are going to start to point at the guy that made the changes. Kevin Coyle will not escape all of this blame, of course. But he will escape most of it.

Similarly on offense, if Mike Wallace goes out there and looks exactly like what many people fear him to be...which is a one-trick pony...that's going to reflect poorly on the man that brought him here. Everyone accepts right now that Joe Philbin approves of Mike Wallace as much as Jeff Ireland. But if things turn south, that's going to change. You'll start to hear murmers that Wallace was never really a Philbin guy anyway, he was more of an Ireland guy. Suddenly people will start to remember how much Philbin hated the concept of a #1 wide receiver, how he was never a big fan of a one-dimensional speedster like Clyde Gates (who was an Ireland pick, after all). Wouldn't be long before people outright start claiming Philbin wanted Greg Jennings, if anyone...and then perception becomes reality and voila. The bad news is that if this scenario plays out on the heat map, Ryan Tannehill will not escape blame. Inevitably, under-using your newly minted #1 receiver will also draw ire and doubts toward your quarterback.

But let's say Jon Martin is a turnstile at left tackle and/or Ryan Tannehill is getting killed with pressure coming through the offensive line. Then it won't be Tannehill that takes the blame. The urge to feel enthusiasm about him is too great. The line will be blamed. And everyone loves to blame the O-Line. Fingers will again point toward the man who set up the line. The man who drafted Jon Martin, decided not to re-sign Jake Long, the man who signed another Marc Colombo (for have no doubt, unless he plays unanimously-agreed awesome football, Tyson Clabo will be another Marc Colombo if the line is getting Tannehill killed). Philbin won't fully escape the blame though, because he's supposed to be an offensive line guy.

What if the running backs fail? Say Lamar Miller gets hurt and Daniel Thomas...is Daniel Thomas? That's another scenario where Tannehill gets off the hook, and probably even Joe Philbin...but not the General Manager.

So to make a long story short, there are SOME scenarios in which the coaches and Ryan Tannehill can escape blame for a 6-10 season. However, there are virtually none in which the General Manager that has been in place since 2008 and is on an expiring contract escapes blame.

 

I'm not a big fan of your "in for a penny, in for a million pounds" logic. It SEEMS to completely discount the validity of any in-depth analysis about the Miami Dolphins unless it is accompanies by in-depth analysis of all 32 other teams in the NFL. In other words, you're not allowed to write an article...it has to be an A thru Z encyclopedia, or you're a biased a-hole.

You don't see a problem with that?

I have very pointed criticisms of and praise for many of the teams you just mentioned. The Bills, the Jets, the Patriots, the Colts, the Saints, the Ravens. I've posted about some of them in various places. You're essentially saying I can't post anything in-depth about the Dolphins unless I also accompany it with every bit of in-depth analysis about all 32 other teams in the same post...and if I don't do that, I'm biased.

EDIT: And I will add, that I have noticed that this criticism for a lack of...shall we say, thoroughness?...only seems to be a problem with respect to analyses that under-sell the Miami Dolphins. You would think it would apply to analyses that are extremely positive on the Miami Dolphins all the same.

 

The Dolphins played one decent team over those last three games. That was the game against the Patriots and the offense was shut out. The other two games were against two of the worst teams in the NFL in 2012, the Bills and the Jaguars.

We will know a lot more about this offensive line after the first 5 games of the 2013 regular season. Three of those first five games are against teams which made the playoffs last year and the Saints, while not a playoff team in 2012, should be a much better team in 2013 after getting their head coach back.

 

Ireland also overlooked Andy Dalton. While some individuals on here aren't high on Dalton. The fact is that he has been a member of the AFC Pro-Bowl team in each of his two seasons in the league and the Bengals have made the playoffs in each of his first two years in the NFL.

Tannehill may yet end up being the answer at the QB position for the Dolphins. Yet if he doesn't improve greatly this year, the jobs of Ireland and Philbin will be on the line, along with Tannehill's.

 

Wow, this year might be more of a hit piece than last year. I'll keep buying it for some of their statistics, but holy **** is it clear someone has an ax to grind. People get angry about Heath Evans or whatever that other guys names are, but it isn't their job to be accurate or good, it's their job to make sounds with their mouth to a not particularly discerning public between commercial breaks. This is more like the KKK goes to college.

It's not aggressively wrong, or even opinionated, it basically just rehashes everything that has gone with the team, focusing on stuff that was 5+ years ago, and throws in baffling quotes like this on Jeff Ireland:

It's a great song, but what in the ****?

It's not really free from errors, either. For instance, for some reason they keep deciding to refer to Kevin Coyle's defense as a zone defensive unit. I'm a bit skeptical of their statistics if the guy who wrote the article is involved with it.

 

LOL. What's funny about that quote is the song specifically says he thinks his spaceship knows which way to go. Well, you probably already got that, but I felt like pointing out the obvious.

Trying to make a clever quip and misquoting or otherwise failing to connect the punch...is so wrong. If you're not sure, don't quip.

 

I didn't even catch that initially, and I had to look it up to make sure I was remembering the song correctly because every other element was so bizarre I'd have at least thought the guy was a big David Bowie fan trying to cram it in haphazardly. But no, apparently not.