The past two years the Dolphins have averaged more YPC than NE, and I would be willing to bet NE saw a much higher % of nickel and dime coverage than Miami. So basically even the Dolphins have ran the football better than NE and under much harder circumstances. The Dolphins also have allowed less PPG than NE over the last 2 years. I don't think the Pats are "finished" by any means, but to pretend it doesn't matter because Hernandez doesn't represent their shocking strength just is insane. They should still be favored to win the East, but the gap is very minuscule if you ask me.
It's ironic....these guys, NFL players, come from all walks of life and sometimes as fans, we forget that... As bad as this is, it scares me that it could be a Dolphin player or Pastie or 49er or any other NFL team that could have to deal with this...in this case, it's the pasties and they, on outward appearances, have done the right thing, but anytime you give some of these kids, coming from some of the backgrounds they come from, you stand the chance of having it blow up in your face, as it did with arguably the premier team in the NFL, with an owner and staff that are renown for 'reforming' players... Sometimes, even if you do everything right, it turns out wrong for you....of course, I have to preface my doom and gloom with the fact that he is only charged and not convicted yet...but the pasties, the fans and the NFL lose anyway you look at it...
I've been glued to this case for three days, can someone tell me why there is no talk of the other gentleman in the car?, why aren't they being pursued? Anyone have any info on that?
I believe they arrested one of them today. EDIT: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...os-ortiz-aaron-hernandez-murder-case/2463633/
When one considers his background, I'd say it is a very safe bet the Dolphins didn't even have him on their draft board. There were way too many red flags even before the 2010 draft.
From what I've seen of Ballard with the Giants, he isn't anywhere close to the athlete that Hernandez is. Ballard from what I recall is similar to Fasano, though I'm not sure he's as good. JMO.
but the Patriots offense scheming up 2 TE sets with rookies Gronk & Hernandez stymied NFL defenses quite effectively, enough so that the overall success of the offense was more efficient than the following year with a seasoned Gronk & Hernandez. Plus the duo combined for 16 TDs in 2010.
that evidence of the text to his sister "you saw who i´m with" and then "NFL" , you think his attorneys could spin this like "hey look i´m driving in a car with a NFL star" ?
Anyone who says he's a bad actor has not watched Dazed and Confused. His portrayal of O'banion is without question one of the finest acting performances ever.
Understandably, you're not accounting for the number of times the Patriots ran the football inside the red zone. Most people don't realize this but the Patriots ran the ball last year inside the red zone far, far, far more times than any team in the league. In the red zone, most teams are only gaining between 2 and 3 yards per carry. Last year for example the Patriots ran the football 119 times in the red zone. The team with the 2nd most number of runs inside the red zone ran only 96 times. The Dolphins only ran the ball in the red zone 53 times. That has a significant impact on YPA. The Dolphins gained 2.64 yards per carry in the red zone. The Patriots gained 2.74 yards per carry in the red zone. The Dolphins gained 4.57 yards per carry outside the red zone (excluding QB Kneeldowns) and the Patriots gained 4.78 yards per carry outside the red zone (excluding QB Kneeldowns). So the Patriots were all around a more efficient running team than the Dolphins in 2012. Correct. The Dolphins allowed 28 touchdowns rushing and receiving, along with 31 field goals. That's 289 points. The Patriots allowed 38 touchdowns rushing and receiving, and 21 field goals. That's 329 points. However, the Patriots were 2nd in the NFL with 41 takeaways whereas the Dolphins only had 16 takeaways. The Patriots defense scored 5 touchdowns directly on those takeaways. The Dolphins defense didn't score a single one. Just netting out the PURE SCORING, you have Miami allowing 289 points and the Patriots allowing 294 points. What would you rather have? The extra 5 points not given up by your defense? Or the extra 20 takeaways where you're able to hand the ball back to your offense with a short field? I know which I'd rather have. I think first off yes there are people saying the Patriots are finished and by that I mean the Dolphins taking the division over them. Second you say the gap is "very miniscule". Well, the Patriots won 13 games in 2012 and the Dolphins won 7 games. To me a miniscule difference means either the same number of wins but one team having the tie-break, or maybe one more win. If you think the Dolphins have gotten 2 wins better then you must think the Patriots have gotten 3 or 4 wins worse. Or if you think the Dolphins have gotten 3 games better then you must think the Patriots have gotten 2 or 3 wins worse. I'm just saying that I don't think losing Aaron Hernandez does that. And their 38.8 points per game, having never put up less than 30 points in the 10 games Hernandez has missed in his career suggets it's not as big a deal as people make of it, either.
Depends what your definition of 'significantly' is, I guess. I've said before I think the Dolphins have improved this off season. Which is a pretty nice accomplishment. Do I think the Dolphins make the playoffs? No. Do I think the Patriots make the playoffs? Most assuredly. Those are the objective markers you can take away, rather than getting lost in the vagaries of concepts like "significantly" or "enough for Phins fans to get excited".
I'm not sure about significantly. They've lost Hernandez and Welker. They've gained Talib, Amendola, Adrian Wilson. Dolphins have lost Jake Long, and gained Wallace, Keller, and Dion Jordan, for practical purposes. Certainly one could argue the talent gap has closed, but I'm not sure its significantly closed. The excitement for Dolphins fans should derive from Tannehill and Philbin improving. That is where the gap will be closed. Losing Hernandez really is a drop in the bucket. This is a league that is dominated by QBs and coaches.
Losing "Jake Long" is a bit like losing an ex GF who invites themselves everywhere you go. No great loss, he was dreadful. And it should be mentioned, naming names and the number of snaps they played does overlook the fact they had to trade for Talib last yr b/c those Cb's playing all of those snaps for them were being toasted regularly, they had little choice but to make a move. Pretty much same Cb corps is back this year, difference being they'll gave Talib for the full season (afaik he did resign with them).
I don't know I think it's been about 6 years ago I used to think how could this guy Ck write the way he does and still be as passionate as some fans out there, then I started to see examples of the way his fandom works, and when things would get exciting for us, I started seeing other sides of him that made me think, then lol, then say to myself, he's exactly like any other fan who loves his team, he's just one analytical mother grabber..
I do believe Miami has improved and NE will digress. If RT makes the strides I think he will, we will be nose and nose with that team. Didnt know you meant they were a great "redzone running team" either way the attention everyone else attracts opens up some nice running lanes. And that Hernandez guy along with Gronk n Wes was a big reason for that. So I expect that number will decrease also. Miami hasn't been very good at forcing turnovers in a long time, one of the reasons is Miami is normally either getting their *** kicked or in a dogfight wich allows teams to run the football more unlike NE who is usually ahead forcing the opposition to be one dimensional and that ensues a series of "forced" throws or coverage sack-fumbles. This is a parity driven league and NE has defied the odds by dominating our division the past 10 years, those odds are shrinking for Bill and crew. The dominance is diminishing and they are one improved QB from being dethroned Hernandez or not.
No, he leaned on his running game w/ Dillon and his defense w/ Law, McGinest, Bruschi, Vrabel, Harrison and the rest. Maybe Troy Brown can come out of retirement and play some nickel corner for them, because their secondary is an abomination.
I didn't mean they were JUST a great red zone running team. They were a good running team period. As I said they rushed with better efficiency than the Dolphins both inside and outside of the red zone. And I don't see why that's going to get worse. I think they place a lot of emphasis on running the ball effectively in the end zone where everything gets tighter and harder to move forward. That's why I think they're one of the more effective red zone rushing teams in the league. It's certainly why they're one of the most prolific ones. I look at them trading for LeGarrette Blount and signing Tim Tebow, and that's what I see. They're keeping their red zone running claws sharp. The last time Josh McDaniels had Tim Tebow, he used him as a wildcat goal line back with great success. Tebow had 11 touches inside the 10 yard line and produced 7 touchdowns on those plays. That's a very high percentage. It makes a lot of sense. Rule changes and schematic trends have made it easier than ever to move the football between the 20's. The teams that separate themselves are the ones that can go from scoring position to scoring touchdowns and I think a great way you can do that is just by physically dominating and pounding your way through the red zone. A team that's gaining 3.0 yards per carry down there is a lot better off than the ones gaining 2.0 yards per carry.
That does make sense, and I don't doubt they will be effective in the redzone...however I don't think they are an improved football team. I'm up for any sig bet or escrow wager that says NE doesn't win 12 games this year.
One of the keys to the Pats success: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/06/27/neils-nfl-daily-june-27-2013/ Good view in that link, w/o Hernandez the sort of "cover him with a nickel Db or a Lb" is somewhat gone, now Gronk will be easier to defend as well, as whomever replaces him perhaps will not be as good, so they will have a tougher time running the ball as that dual threat is gone. Before this all went down, I thought Jordan and Jenkins were meant to counter the Patriots doing exactly what they had been doing.
Playoffs included? Because if playoffs aren't included your 11.5 over/under would imply that you think they've only gotten half a game or a full game worse than a year ago.
It is circumstantial evidence, but it is pretty strong circumstantial evidence. Non-circumstantial (i.e., direct) evidence is evidence that, if true, necessarily proves the issue without further thought or analysis. Anything else is circumstantial evidence. So a video of Hernandez shooting Odin Lloyd or an eyewitness testifying that he saw it would be direct evidence. But Hernandez' fingerprints on the gun is still circumstantial evidence because they could have gotten there either before or after the shooting. Similarly, texts from Lloyd saying he is with Hernandez around the time of the shooting and/or highly suspicious house-cleaning afterward is still circumstantial. The vast majority of murder convictions are made exclusively on circumstantial evidence -- there usually aren't any eyewitnesses or videos of the murder.
Just trying to mesh my expectations with yours so 12 sounded about right. Without looking at their schedule you can mark me down for 10 wins.
Yes, the secondary that had twice as many INTs as ours. They are an abomination. Let's not pretend like our defense played under the same circumstances as theirs. NE's defense could basically count on 28 pts per game and they played accordingly. Lots of zone, soft coverages, etc. They can afford to sit back and wait for a mistake b/c they know the offense will have their back. OTOH Miami's D could count on nothing from their offense, take the Houston game for example, 4 TOs in a 3 minute span of a close game, Tanne's pick 6 vs NY in a game the D was dominating (and a Thomas fumble on the very next possession), or the 4 TOs vs Arizona in another game the D was dominating. Defensively, it's hard to take a lot of risks when your offense isn't giving you a lead or able to get you back in the game if you fall behind. It's also hard to force the opposing offense into reckless behavior when they are never trailing by much and thus more inclined to force the issue. It's not an apples to apples comparison at all. If Miami can put some points on the board for a change then teams will be forced to pass more, more opps for Wake & co to get pressure, more opps for the secondary to get aggressive as well. If NE's offense is less productive it'll mean fewer leads and and fewer chances for their D to create turnovers. I'd also point out that Brent Grimes, Richard Marshall, Jamar Taylor and Will Davis have been added to the secondary while the Pats added Adrian (Mr. Only Db in the NFl to allow a TD to Hartline) Wilson and Logan Ryan (Who?). I'm all for respecting the program they run outta Foxboro but let's not get crazy about it. Miami and NE are pretty much evenly matched. On paper Miami has more talent, on the field NE has proven they can win and win consistently. I call it a virtual tossup.
Muah ha ha ha. That's as bad as saying Amendola will move into Welker's role. Hernandez' role will most likely be taken by a WR, they don't have another TE who even comes close to his skill set. More 3x1 formations and less 2x2 sets is what I envision.
I like Amendola's game a lot GMJ, and for whatever "reason" (steroids) it's amazing how a guy who was often injured (steroids) will somehow not miss a game for them. When you see Welker recover from major knee injury, and is then back in 7 months and has not missed a beat, well, let's just say I know what conclusion I'm drawing.
like GM mentioned, because when you have Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez working inside the red zone, secondary players and linebackers are distracted from the run game and trying to focus on coverage..
Interesting. Tough for me to imagine them finding 6 teams that can beat Tom Brady on that schedule. I think the Saints rebound and could do it. The Ravens could continue to own their number. The Dolphins will probably do it once. The Falcons MAY do it but honestly it wouldn't surprise me if they struggle some this year. But let's call that a should-be loss for now. Let's call the Broncos a likely loss. So you have 5 teams that could win against them right there, and honestly I think the Patriots jump up and take one of those games. At least. Which one? I don't know. But they're going to take one. I actually think the Texans may find themselves second in their own division this year and I think the Patriots will beat them. Same with Steelers and Bengals. Then you've got games I think they easily win like their games against the Bills and Jets, Bucs, Browns, Panthers, one of the games against Miami (I'm certainly not about to project the Dolphins sweeping them). Between all this I think the Patriots jump down and drop one of these games unexpectedly. That puts me about 11 regular season wins on them but I think the reality is I'm closer to 11.5 as an over/under with perhaps some extra vig on the under. But if we're counting the playoffs then I think 12 wins is a good bet.
