Jason La Canfora: The Miami Dolphins are overhyped

I would think that tolerance for criticism would be a bit higher considering we're one of only 4 teams that has suffered through 4 straight losing seasons.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sONfxPCTU0

 

Lol..I always look at these heated disagreements as intellect clashing..I find it interesting as weird as that sounds..

 

This thread will be fun to look back on in December, one wy or another.


I'm with CK on this one. I think many in this thread are vastly underestimating the AFC and overestimating Miami.

While the AFC inst a powerhouse division, there's a bunch of strong playoff contenders out there. A lot of other young teams, who could be trending upward. Indy might be the scariest team of all, as they're clearly both.

As for Miami, I'm not sure what everyone is seeing that I'm not. Yes, we had a productive offseason. I think we're better this year than last year. I hope philbin develops the young guys an we boom. I'm really excited about this season...

However, I don't understand why fans ar getting cocky. We still have question marks at the WR position, despite signing Wallace. Our WR core is still pretty cruddy after Mike Wallace. God forbid he gets hurt for any length of time or well likely see 2012 redux with a lack of separation or explosiveness. Keller, while an upgrade for sure, isn't a game changer like the upper tier of TE's. And our OL is arguably worse. Not to mention an unproven stable of talented (on paper) RBs. Plus, a year 2 QB who was inconsistent, despite showing flashes of brilliance with a bad supporting cast.

We have question marks and issues all over this offense. Especially at the QB. And yet, we're somehow better than last years playoffs teams? This is a fact?

I feel like I'm missing something.

 

after considering so much stuff, so many variables, I'm happy with 9 and 7, playoffs or not, if we get to ten I'll be one cocky mother grabber.

 

I never even said anyone was overestimating Miami. I disagreed with the notion that the AFC, which features at least two Hall of Fame quarterbacks who both performed extremely well last year and got to the playoffs, and also features the team that won the Super Bowl, is extremely weak. That was my disagreement. Aqua took offense to that for whatever reason and GMJ decided to devolve the thread into his own brand of immature insults and personal attacks, "ermagadz you were once wrong about a prospect some years ago you is turrible!"

 

If we go 11 would you let all of our mothers grabby cocker?

I might.

 

IMO our D is good enough to get us to 7-9 almost by itself. I thought we were a pretty good D last year and I think the odds are good that we'll be better this year. I think we lost a little man coverage ability with the loss of Dansby, but that our pass D will be better overall. I base that primarily on the increased speed. Ellerbe and Wheeler just cover more ground. Jordan adds needed pass rush. Grimes adds speed, coverage and instincts. And Jones should improve with another year in the system. I think Taylor and Davis add depth, but I don't generally look for much from rookie CBs.

On offense I don't think it makes sense to look at the WRs individually. IMO that's Madden or fantasy football. That's why adding a WR like Brandon Marshall has a minimal impact on the overall offensive production even though his individual talent is an obvious upgrade. The passing game is based more on spacing and the way the pieces fit together. That's what I see in the receiving options that were added. Wallace attacks the deep areas which helps the spacing for everybody else. He also should provide a few deep TDs that we missed last year. (RT was among the better deep throwers percentage-wise so it makes sense to increase his opportunities). Hartline primarily works in the middle depth areas, but should also be more effective at breaking deep with more attention on Wallace. Gibson will basically be Bess with better quick body positioning for the short passes and be a far better redzone target. Keller isn't a top tier TE, but he is much better at getting quick separation in the passing game. He easily improves RT's options in the short zones. Matthews worked the middle depth areas like Hartline, but IMO has greater potential to develop as a WR that can work all areas of the field. I'm hoping that a guy like Bumphis wins the 5th spot as I think another WR with short area quickness will add a more dynamic element to our short passing game. Aside from health (of course) I see the keys as RT's development and Miller's development. I have a great deal of confidence in their talent levels. IMO they both have the talent to be top 10 at their position guys this year. If they reach those levels then Miami is easily one of the top 5 AFC contenders. If they don't, then we're not. I see that as the divide between the people like our chances and those that don't. I've always focused on the development and projection of players. I'm not one of those that waits for a player to be "proven". IMO that's a ridiculous concept as every year is different as players develop or break down. I look at individual talents and how they fit into a system and then at how (or what stage) that development is in and how likely it is to produce (I see that last part as largely personality based or if the player is getting "it"). Based on that and my belief in Philbin's ability to fit a player's talent to a system and provide development opportunities makes me optimistic for this season and beyond.

 

After going 7-9 with the team we had last year I'd be disappointed with 9-7 this season.


For one, last year's teams had a ton of red flag players on the field compared to this year. Rookies, first time starters, players taking on more of a role than they had ever shown they could handle, and injury prone/old guys. By my count that included Tannehill, J Lane, JMart, Jake, John Jerry, Hartline, Bess, on offense. The rookies are obvious, Jake was never 100% and seemed to get progressively worse as the season wore on, Jerry had never played a full season as a starter, Hartline and Bess had never been a #1 or #2 respectively, behind them at WR was garbage for most of the year. On Defense it wasn't as bad, but Misi, Smith, Carroll and Wilson were all playing in spots (#1,2,3 CB, and WLB) where they had never been asked to play before. That's 11 of 22 starters as red flag players, Not to mention a new (rookie) HC and new systems being implemented on both sides of the ball.


This season that number will be...ONE. There are no rookies in the starting lineup, they're all backups and ST guys. And not b/c they suck, more b/c there are good players ahead of them. Lamar Miller is the only first time starter, and other than him no starter will be asked to play a position/role they haven't already shown they can handle. The new FA guys, Wallace, Keller, Gibson, Ellerbe, Wheeler, have all proven they can play the positions they'll be asked to play here. The rookies will only see the field if they ball out and beat out established veterans, they won't be thrown into the fire ready or not like they have been in the past. How's that for roster building? We have the youngest team in the league, but we start ZERO rookies and only ONE player who has never started at his current position.

That's not to say there aren't other talented teams out there. Denver and New England are still the favorites for as long as Brady and Manning continue to play at an elite level. Denver is loaded again, but I expect NE to fall off a bit w/o Welker. Amendola is a nice player, but he's always hurt. Gronkowski's had how many surgeries this year? Their secondary is still weak and they still lack a dominant pass rusher. They're not invincible, as we saw in the AFCCG.

Baltimore was decimated by departures. Lewis, Reed, Ellerbe, Kruger, Pollard, Leach, Boldin, Birk and Williams. They were never dominant to begin with, a 10-6/9-7 (4th and 29, really?) team that got hot at the right time. Most of their holes are being filled with red flags, rookies (Elam/Brown), backups (Graham/McClain,Gradkowski/Jones), perennial underachievers (Canty, Huff), and Elvis Dumervil. Houston is still a very good team also. I think those four are the favorites, but outside of Denver I don't see any powerhouses.

Next I see Miami, Cincinnati, and possibly Kansas City. Young, up and coming teams, solid on both sides of the ball. Run games. Big play WRs, solid TE's. Good pass rush. QB play should be the tie breaker there.

Next is Indy, Tennesee, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Too many red flags to put them in the top 7 IMO. Tennessee couldn't stop a nose bleed last year and their QB is awful. If they throw Fitzpatrick in there and their D gives them a little something they could make a run. Indy is horrible on the OL and on the DL. The skill positions are better but not enough to overcome being dominated at the LOS week in and week out. They won a lot of down to the wire games in 2012, this year their "Luck" will run out. Cleveland will be a tough out but like Tennesee they have a QB issue and I'm not sure they have the pieces in place to run their 3-4, lots of red flags with them. Pittsburgh wasn't any good last year and I see no reason to think they'll be any higher in the pecking order this season. Lots of red flags on both sides of the ball. The OL remains an issue, Ben will always be an injury risk. Their division is hella tough, they'll need everthing to fall into place for them to have a realistic shot.

Buffalo, NY, Jax, Oakland, San Diego don't really deserve mentioning other than to say we have 5 games vs them.

 

is this really true, do we have the youngest team in the league ?

 

I agree with a lot of that, just don't agree that a winning season, after taking all that into account, is a negative for a young team with a coach and Qb in their 2nd year..

 

There's a lot of frustration in this post, GM...I feel the same way but too many things have to fall into place. This is a very young team and while there are reasons for optimism, less than 9-7 isn't a bad thing...so long as we show improvement and some of the players you mentioned start to get it...

 

As we speak, we have two thirty year old players..wake, Clabo.

 

You're right, 9-7 wouldn't be bad at all. But I'm hoping the team gets greedy, 10, maybe 11 wins.

 

I want cohesion going into the 2014 season, I want those players who are on one year deals to show me something good or bad, if it's good, I will sign you to a contract, if it's bad, I will replace you with the 2014 draft and free agency..we have all our picks, should have some pretty good cap space..we should have adequate resources to take another jump..

New staff, three year plan/re'evaluate..improving on the win total in the first two years seems fair and reason for excitement..

 

I quoted you, because I wanted this paragraph repeated, so people read it, learn it and live it.

 

I agree, a lot has to fall into place, staying healthy would be #1 on my list. Yes we're young, but we're not inexperienced. And there are other concerns as well, OL, unproven RB, 2nd year QB, new LB's, etc.. And All I'm saying is that we have our issues and other teams, even the best ones, have their issues as well.

The Colts for instance:



What are your thoughts on that depth chart?

 

yeah but we were the 4th youngest team last year behind st. louis, can´t remember 2nd and cleveland and i cant find any info online that gives any info about this years teams age

 

I was saying that as a compliment to the roster homeslice..

 

So funny, I've been looking at a lot of other teams depth chart myself...it ain't pretty out there lol..

 

thats how i took it...but you tried to cheat when you didn´t include john denney....

 

I agree w/ all of that. The team is built to be good for several years, 9-7 will be a significant improvement and set the team up for bigger things in 2014 and beyond. Thing is, we shoulda swept the Jets last year, probably shoulda swept the Bills, shoulda beat AZ too. Beating those types of teams is almost a given this year.

What I'm looking for is the identity of the team, are they happy with being better on paper and the couple extra wins that should come along with it or are they a hungry, jump the line, crash the party, **** the Patriots, we want the throne right now type of group? That's the team I'm hoping to see. They'll most likely fail but it'll let me know that they want to be great.

 

I seriously see 1 defender that I'd want starting in the same spot for us. On offense gimme Luck and keep the rest. But ask around and you'll get 90% saying the Colts are better.

Cotdayumitman I can't wait for Week 2.

 

Ahhhhhhh, take it in, San Diego, which is from the roman times, I believe the Latin interpretation of the word means whales vagina.

 

well you can´t deny that Luck as that one player would be huuuuge

 

That depends on if you think the gap between Luck and Tannehill is huge, no?

 

I'd take Dwayne Allen and Fleener, but I get the point..

Luck is a special football player though, he can make chicken salad out of sh&$..

 

you've been really hyped for that rematch, what's goin on there?

 

i also want to play them again badly, can Luck have that kind of game against this defense again ?

 

LOL, where do I start? The 3rd and longs still drive me insane. Nolan Carroll looking totally lost, Jimmy Wilson not much better. Luck dancing away from pressure and firing strikes all day long. Sean Smith's dropped INTs. The "holding" call on Marlon Moore before the last drive. The 4-5 holding calls that were ignored vs Cam Wake. Tannehill going out there with a 9mm while Luck has an M-4.


Look at this ish DJ, FS 8 yds deep, on the friggin hash, at the snap he's bailing AWAY from Bess towards the middle of the field and Bethea is coming even firther towards the LOS looking for run. The CB rolled up in press man, all of this at that down/distance and score? NO RESPECT!!! And that aint Vontae either, its Cassius MF'n Vaughn he's leavin on an island! It's a disgrace! For the people wondering why we signed Mike Wallace, there's a prefect example. The Colts wont be able to pull this crap in Week 2 b/c if they do Tanne will be 10-12 for 600 yds we'll score 70 points on their asses.


I know its only one play, but believe me, there were dozens like it every friggin week and when Wallace & Keller get on the field that's gonna be a some serious change you can believe in.

 

Sean Smith, Nolan Carroll, Jimmy Wilson and a lackluster pass rush. Fired, fired, fired, plus we spent the 3rd overall pick and signed two quicker faster LBs to help out with that other thing.

 

No more cheatin' Aqua, teams are gonna have to man up and deal with our OL straight up. Most of them will fail.

 

I think the Colts' passing attack is going to be all the way around better than Miami's, better pass catchers, better quarterback, and better pass protection. The ground game is hairy though because of some turnover on both lines, and that's an area that takes cohesion to get the best results. They have better tailbacks but our interior line is more proven at blocking for ours. It's tough to take a stance one way or another on the ground game.

Their defense though, Miami should have a far superior run defense. They've upgraded their run defense compared with a year ago by adding Aubrayo Franklin and Ricky Jean-Francois, but it's not enough to be on par with Miami's, or really even close. Miami has more reliable pass rush because of Cameron Wake, who is superior to Robert Mathis. The difference in pass rush units as a whole aren't stark, but there's a solid advantage for Miami. The coverage is a wash. Both secondaries have questions. Both secondaries have only one guy you can rely on to say, that guy will play, and he'll play well...and in both cases it's a safety. Between Brent Grimes coming off the Achilles, Richard Marshall as a starter and Dimitri Patterson as the nickel...versus Vontae Davis, Darius Butler and Greg Toler...flip a coin. That's what it is. Grimes will be the best of the bunch IF healthy and he has his old mojo but that seems to be a pretty big IF when you're accounting for an Achilles tear. Reshad Jones is a bit better than Antoine Bethea but they have better linebacker coverage than our linebacker cover guys Ellerbe and Wheeler.

Better passing attack versus better run defense and pass rush. Which do you take on Sunday? Tough call. They beat us in 2012, but in their own house. Then again, that's where we play once again in 2013. Didn't really catch a break there, we play them up in their house again. Should be a good game. I expect Vegas to favor them, but not by a lot.

 

No he cannot have that type of game against us again, he was unreal, and we had Sean smith and Nolan Carroll on the field for defense crapping all over themselves.

 

I'm a believer in elite speed on a receiver whos not just a one trick pony..I believe in the theory of worry..when you don't worry, you go full metal jacket at your own job..when you worry, you don't..

Great post..exciting...

 

I believe we have to go back there again.

 

Yeah we do. It's in their house again.

I think the Dolphins start the year off with a win in Cleveland, but I think they'll probably drop the game against Indy. Two well matched rosters but one playing a second straight game on the road versus another playing its second straight game at home. The Colts were 6-2 over the back half of the season last year and the Dolphins were 3-5. Both teams made roster improvements over the off season, but I think it might be asking too much for Miami to go up to their house and beat them.

 

The front part of the schedule is brutal, but I could actually see Miami starting off 2-1, just not in the way people think. I could see Miami beating Cleveland, losing to the Colts but then turning around and surprising the Falcons in the home opener. There's some excitement from the fans this year so there will be a decent crowd there. The team will be 1-1 after a stretch of road games and that's not bad so nobody will be discouraged yet. It would've helped if the schedule-makers would have handed the domed Falcons a 1pm game in that September heat and humidity, but I guess Ross is back to not wanting the heat advantage anymore. The Falcons should probably be 1-1 coming off a victory against the Rams when they play Miami, and they might be caught looking ahead to the New England game on prime time television a week later.

What will suck though is the following stretch. The team could be high on themselves after a 2-1 start while beating a Falcons team that went to the NFC Championship Game the year before. Then they travel to New Orleans for a Monday Night Football game and that whole stadium and team will be jazzed up. I think New Orleans is going to get off to a real fast start this year now that they have their Head Coach back, ready to dish out some payback to the rest of the league for the sanctions they dealt with. They could be looking at a 4-0 start by taking on the Falcons and the brutalizing the Buccaneers and Cardinals then coming home to make a statement on national television in front of their home crowd. That's just going to be a tough game. I don't see any way Miami wins it, and the problem is it gives them a short week to prepare for playing the Super Bowl champs at home...and the Ravens have a history of treating the Dolphins' home like their own.

Overall there's nothing earth shattering or controversial about this prediction, I think when most people saw the schedule they thought if Miami went 2-3 before the bye then they're doing well for themselves. After the bye that's when you re-asssess and see how they're going to come out against the rest of the schedule. I suspect 3-3 in the AFC East, with a victory against Tampa on Monday Night Football, and a split against San Diego, Carolina, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

 

I don't understand the rule of us playing the colts twice in their house in consecutive years.

I've watched that game a few times...imo, Andrew luck had the best game of his season in that game, he did some jaw dropping things that simply stabbed us over and over. That game is why I'm excited about the changes to the defense, that game is one of the reasons why I'm excited about DIon Jordan, here's why, I know what happens when Qbs like Luck who possess that special art of escapability, when they tap into to, I'm very in tune with the trait and I know how it works, it's as consistent as the sun rising tomorrow, and is only engaged when protection breaks down, so, with Luck being in the afc, I feel like soon he's going to be our biggest obstacle, and the only way your going to contain him is thru better corner play, and more explosive athleticism in your front 7 to minimize that trait..we must be able to make individual athletic plays in space so this man cannot reset and deliver..same thing with Russell Wilson, same thing with Kap, same thing with RG3.

I think we will win that game because him playing at that exact level probably isn't likely, our corners will be better no doubt in my mind, and Wheeler, Jordan, and Ellerbe should be on the field during third down, and those players move forward better and faster than the players they replaced...Flush him out, and finish..that's how your going to have to beat that guy.

 

Miami has increased its pass rush presence but I think Indy has increased its pass protection presence more, with the addition of Gosder Cherilus. That's a big difference from what they had before at that position with Winston Justice.

I don't think the ranginess of the linebackers (particularly Ellerbe) is going to come into play much. It'll come into play more against the Panthers.

Our coverage should be better in the secondary but so will theirs. People forget Vontae Davis didn't play in that game. They'll have Vontae and Greg Toler instead of Cassius Vaughn and Jerraud Powers. That's an upgrade for them.

They'll also have an upgraded run stopping presence due to Ricky Jean-Francois and Aubrayo Franklin. I don't think Daniel Thomas will be averaging 6.2 yards per carry against them this time. They should have an upgraded ground game as well.

On the other hand Mike Wallace should give us an upgraded pass catching unit.

Miami can't win every single game. You have to take a stand on which ones you think are going to be wins and which ones you think are going to be losses.