A Metrics Study of Overrated Statistical Prospects

Here's my breakdown of the overrated prospects in this draft. It should be up on TheSidelineView in a day or two, but I wanted to give people to discuss and digest.

Jawan Jamison, RB – Rutgers

Jamison is often considered a mid-round prospect in the mold of former Rutger’s RB Ray Rice. At first blush his extra yardage rating is above-average and he seems to be a fine prospect. However, when you delve into the statistics, there are some glaring problems. In 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and short situations as well as runs in the redzone, he averaged under 2 yards per carry, much lower than every other RB. Only 40% of his rushes resulted in quality plays for his team, compared to an average of 55-60% for every other RB. Even his ability to gain extra yardage is trumped up by gaudy broken tackle numbers against FCS Howard University. It might be a stretch to compare him to Ray Rice or any other NFL RB.

Kenny Stills, WR – Oklahoma

The numbers just don’t favor Kenny Stills. Many project him as a quick, slot receiver to be selected in the third round. Unfortunately, the things you’d want to see from a slot receiver weren’t there during college. His yards after the catch was extremely below-average, normally gaining only 3 yards after each reception. His hands were below-average at best, dropping 7.8% of all targets thrown his way.

Justin Hunter, WR – Tennessee

The metrics for Justin Hunter point to the same negative factors as Stills. Hunter dropped an astounding 12.1% of all targets thrown his way, which gives him the worst hands of any receiver slotted to be drafted in the first 5 rounds. Hunter’s been billed as a physical specimen after his superb combine performance, but he was only able to garner 4.9 yards after the catch in 2012. That YAC isn’t as bad as Stills, but ideally you’d want more from a 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round prospect. Other notable wide receivers such as Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 6.4 yards, Tavon Austin 8.2 yards, and Keenan Allen 6.8 yards.

Jesse Williams, DT – Alabama

College production is only a single part of the evaluation process, potential has to be included in any projection to the NFL. Williams’ production in college certainly leaves something to be desired. When pass rushing, other 1[SUP]st[/SUP] and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] round DTs averaged a snaps per pressure (SPP) of 15.5, meaning they pressured the quarterback every 15.5 snaps. Williams had an SPP of 36, much lower than every other top prospect. He also had the least amount of tackles near or at the line of scrimmage among top DTs. Even after adjusting for his snap participation against rushing plays, his impact on the run game was low.

Jon Bostic, LB - Florida

There are many factors that go into a non-pass rushing LBs evaluation including coverage, pass rushing, and run support. Unfortunately, Bostic didn’t post quality metrics in any of those categories. In run support he tied for the least amount of impact tackles with Manti Te’o at 14.5 (average was 23). In pass coverage, he was beat on 58.6% of targets and only defensed four passes. His pass rushing was about average, he garnered 11 pressures through the year- about the same as Te’o on a similar number of snaps. However, that may not be enough to make up for other deficiencies.

David Amerson, CB – North Carolina State

It’s well known that Amerson had a rough year in 2012, however many are still projecting him to be selected in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] round. The metrics would suggest that he belongs among corners slotted to go in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] round and later. Amerson was targeted 5[SUP]th[/SUP] most among top CBs, which means he was thrown at every 5.1 snaps. Unlike other top CBs such as Dee Milliner who were targeted frequently but not beat often, Amerson was beat 46% of the time. To contrast, top CBs like Xavier Rhodes and Dee Milliner were only beat 38.2% and 40.6% of the time respectively. In addition, he also missed the most tackles by a wide margin (13) and gave up 8 touchdowns.

Eric Reid, S – LSU

There are many who like Reid as a first round safety, maybe even as the second one off the board. The numbers couldn’t tell a different story. Reid’s burn rate is glaringly bad. The safety class on the whole was beat on 52% of all targets. Eric Reid was beat on 61% of all targets, worst among the safety class this year. That may be acceptable if he played well as a box safety, but the metrics suggest that’s unlikely. He failed to make many impact tackles, 8.5 for Reid compared to an average of 10.5 for the group. On top of that he missed 14 tackles, second worst in the safety group behind Shamarko Thomas.

Other statistically overrated players: Johnthan Banks, Johnathan Hankins, Kenjon Barner, Zaviar Gooden, Bacarri Rambo, Keenan Allen

 

I wrote this up separately and it'll just stay here on ThePhins.

Keenan Allen: A Profile in Overratedness

Whenever any talk of Keenan Allen arises, the excuses come rolling out. I’ll say he’s a third round prospect, and people will say “But Greg! Zach Maynard was so bad in 2012, remember how that anonymous scout said he’d have more yardage with a better QB?” Well that anonymous scout was wrong.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Zach Maynard was a bad quarterback, it’s plain to see on tape. Where I start to get lost is justifying Allen’s mediocre play despite other WRs having bad quarterbacks as well. Let’s break down exactly how bad some of quarterbacks for these WRs were and how they targeted their WRs. Here’s the number of targets some top WRs had:

Patterson: 84 targets, 46 receptions, 55% completion rate
Hunter: 132 targets, 73 receptions, 55% completion rate
Wheaton: 141 targets, 90 receptions, 64% completion rate
Bailey: 148 targets, 114 receptions, 77% completion rate
Allen: 89 targets, 61 receptions, 69% completion rate (Allen was out for three games, that projects to 119 targets)

These don’t tell us much, but we can break those down even further. The program I use for my stats has every single incompletion charted and why it occurred. Naturally what we’d want to see is how many passes were simply misses. Not deflections, not drops, not throw aways, just misses.
Patterson: 21 misses, 25% miss rate on all targets
Hunter: 33 misses, 25% miss rate (that’s freakishly coincidental)
Wheaton: 25 misses, 17.7% miss rate
Bailey: 15 misses, 10.1% miss rate
Allen: 16 misses, 18% miss rate

From that perspective alone, was Zach Maynard any worse than Tyler Bray or the two headed monster of Cody Vaz and Sean Mannion? In addition to that, Allen was targeted on 25% of all passes, compared to Patterson who was targeted on 19% of all passes, Hunter 29%, Bailey 29%, Wheaton 29%. So he’s a bit below average, but not enough to where you can say he wasn’t being looked for as a number 1 WR.

All in all I think the argument towards excusing Allen is astoundingly misguided - people want to find reasons why his senior season was poor. If you want reasons, look at Allen. I’ve heard the excuse that Allen didn’t have any WRs to help him draw off coverage - a slippery slope logically. Markus Wheaton had Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods had Marqise Lee, Justin Hunter/ Cordarrelle Patterson, Stedman Bailey/ Tavon Austin, Terrance Williams had Tevin Reese and so on and so forth. This becomes convenient because suddenly Keenan Allen is the only one without a complementary receiver, thus we should elevate him. Do you then discount Allen’s prior season because he had Marvin Jones? That logic can be applied liberally, but not effectively.

After all that you may still think he’s a 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round pick, but plenty of other WRs dealt with bad QB situations as well. Let’s stop using that as an excuse.

 

Done a few days ago: http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?76218-A-Metrics-Study-of-Undervalued-Draft-Prospects

 

Because he's the quarterback New York deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So they'll boo him. Because he can take it. Because he's not their hero. He's a silent game-manager, a watchful clipboard holder. A Jets' QB.

(Oh god I'm such a nerd)

 

There's a post in here where I address two of those very concerns. The whole point was countering the concept of "Zach Maynard sucks...".

Drops aren't the problem, he has excellent hands. The concerns for me are so-so run after the catch numbers, a lack of diversity in where he caught the ball (can he just catch 5 yard routes?), so-so explosiveness and mediocre production on top of all that. I've both watched and done a considerable amount of statistical work on Allen. I've been consistent since January that I didn't like him as much as everyone says. I've maintained for a while that I would only take him in the third round and that's not even counting the character concerns floating around. I'm just tired of the excuses floating around for him. I can find excuses for any prospect. Eventually he needs to be held accountable for his flaws.

Edited to say, I know it's not a popular opinion and I'm fine with disagreeing on his draft stock. I'm just saying I don't think excuses are a good foundation for evaluating a prospect.

 

First off I never used stats (other than the YAC, which is a valid stat) to argue against him. I used stats to illustrate that other QBs were equally bad as Zach Maynard, yet those WRs still had good production where Keenan Allen didn't. There''s a difference, but you need to comprehend nuance to understand I'm not using stats to argue against him, but to disprove a common fallacy surrounding him. I listed legitimate concerns with his tape/ game and I'll stick to those.

Regardless, the great thing is - you get to find out in three years who is right and wrong. Anything else until then is just people waving their ***** around saying "look at me, look at me, I know best." I'm not interested in that frankly. We'll see.

 

I used stats to illustrate that Zach Maynard was as bad as other QBs as well. I'm not saying here, "Keenan Allen caught screens on X% of plays, thus he's a third round pick." The anonymous scout said something along the lines of "if he had a better quarterback his production would have been better." That anonymous scout is already acknowledging that his production was sub-par, so we can establish that as fact. What I'm saying is other WRs - Patterson, Hunter, Wheaton all had bad quarterbacks, thus the argument that he would have had better production with a better quarterback could be said of all WRs and isn't an excuse. You then have to go to other aspects of his play to understand why production was poor. I was disproving a fallacy surrounding his production and his quarterback. That was literally the entire point I was trying to make.

I never once said in that post that "Allen is bad because of this stat". If you can't understand that subtlety, I can't help you.

I've made my point and whether you can't or don't want to understand it, that's all there is to it. He either will or won't succeed. There's no point in arguing over it when neither of us is going to change our minds and we can literally do nothing about whether he will be a pro-bowler or a bust.