his speed and elusiveness is unmatched in this draft, and we know he's not some track star..gotta grade him somewhere..first round, yeah, maybe so...gotta another month to study these two at WV
The ridiculousness of that summation comment brings his entire analysis into question. Austin is a threat to go the distance from any place on the field. No logical person can say that about Bess. I like Bess, and want to keep him but he isn't nearly as dynamic as Austin with the ball in his hands.
Ain't that the truth. Bess can juke, but he's slow, bottom line. He'n not even in Austin's league as per speed, separation, etc. And the kick returns? Forget it. Here's one of my favorites, a stutter/juke that Bess could only do in fantasy land where he could ask the good witch for a massive acceleration upgrade and Austin;s top end speed as well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxzPryPMB74 I like Austin, but my question as to the size and skillset is this- TY Hilton- similar player imo (skillset/size), late 3rd rd pick. Joe Adams- similar skill set/size, 4th rd pick. Harvin is taller and twice as thick, I don't like the comparison to Austin. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxW2mL8BbOA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byPjkmgUcWg Similar skill set from Joe Adams imo, better production from Austin. I have a hard time pegging where Austin will go in the draft, but I certainly don;t want the Pats to get him and create matchup nightmares. He is a special talent, an electric player.
Simalcam just showed McCalebb was slower than the 4.27 ... bummer, it would have been nice to see a new record
I like Swope as much as anyone here, but he is not a Nelson clone physically. Nelson is 6'3 and 217. Swope is 6' even and 205. Swope is much closer in size to Brandon Stokley who goes 5'11 and almost 200.
Bess is my fav Fin but that comment (Bess is nearly as dynamic with the ball in his hands as Austin and he was arguably a better overall receiver than Austin at the same stage of his career.) made me lol
The injury history raises some concerns too. He'd be worth a late flyer though, depending on who else was on the board or had been taken by that point by us.
Swope 4.34 40? You ****ting me? I"m sure he would have been happy with the unofficial time... 4.43 IIRC? 4.34 though? He struggled a bit in the gauntlet... You know who looked really ****ing good though? Robert Woods. Either one of these guys at 2a has to be a consideration. Like Patton, but I don't think he'll last.
Da'Rick Rodgers was 6'2, 217, ran a 4.52, had an 11' broad jump, a 39.9 inch vertical. The boy done real well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1qQ1SKNlgY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbM67_GpUdc That turns the clock back.
Oh yeah, but he is a freak that has had trouble staying healthy, has trouble holding onto the ball, and has one of the absolute worst work ethics this side of Matt Jones. He was never the same after the injury and looked like three different backs in the three years he played. I would take Dennis Johnson in a heartbeat, but wouldn't touch Knile "Boobie" Davis (yes, that is his nickname).
The team made Davis a 2 time captain and his work ethic is horrendous? "Background/Character A two-time team captain in 2011 and now in 2012, Knile Davis has developed not only into an excellent running back but also a great team leader. Following a breakout 2010 season, Davis missed the entire following season due to a broken ankle suffered in fall camp. Through the rehab process, Davis' work ethic, mental and physical toughness have improved dramatically; with a renewed focus and attention to detail, specifically in the film room and on the white board, Davis has worked on understanding the game at a higher level and becoming a better pass protector. From an attitude and mentality standpoint, Davis is extremely confident in his abilities, claiming to be the top back in his conference during SEC media day interviews. Attesting to Davis' work ethic, are the numbers he posted while testing during the team's Spring football session, timing at a 4.33 in the 40 yard dash, as well as posting an impressive bench press of 415 pounds and a squat of 570 pounds." Fist I've heard of that- no offense, but it sounds dubious. Al I know is that he was one of the best RBs I've seen in this class before he got injured and Arkansas kind of went down the toilet. Excellent college RB and pro prospect based on his earlier film imo- when he's healthy and out of Arkansas, I expect good things from him in the NFL.
That's a good day overall. I don't trust "official" times so I'm still going off the unofficial times there but those jump numbers are great.
I'm not trying to be combative. I just think you are trying to draw conclusions from one drill during the combine that are inaccurate. Swope has very good hands and it's evident on his game tape. You serious man? We must have been watching different draft coverage.
There's no two ways about it, Da'Rick Rogers is not "fast" at all. On the field he gets out run by guys that test around 4.5 or even 4.6. That 4.56 he ran unofficially makes more sense in that regard than the 4.52 "official" numbers which I never, ever trust. But his jump measurements show how he gets open and why he's still potentially a good receiver. What they can't show you is his physical power going up for the football in the air, and the ability to break tackles after the catch. That's what I love about him. I would take him as a role player that way. But the only thing is, when I can get Chris Harper who is very similar as a player that way, except doesn't have even close to the off-field headaches...why would I shoot for Da'Rick Rogers? I mean considering the kind of player he is, only 10 bench reps for Da'Rick Rogers is surprising and a little eyebrow raising to me. Chris Harper is that kind of player and he did 20 reps. That tells me there could easily be a work ethic difference between the two players. Markus Wheaton is only a 189 lbs guy and not the same kind of player as those two at all, yet he put up 20 bench reps.
Potentially still a good receiver? I still think that he's better than Patterson. From a physical perspective compare Rogers's overall numbers to Mike Williams, I think that they compare favorably. As to the speed issue, is it accurate that he ran a 4.44 or 4.47 on one of his reps? Patterson is a bit faster- 1/10th of a second give or take- but in general, off field issues aside, I still think that Rogers is the best WR in the draft. Btw given that he ran a combine official 4.52 at 6-2 1/2 and 217 lbs, I'd say that he did pretty well speed wise, not sure where your "not fast at all" comment is coming from.
His fastest unofficial time was 4.56 and that's the speed he runs on tape. Cordarrelle Patterson is more than just a tenth faster than him.
Chris, you explained last year why it is that you trust the unofficial numbers more. Can you share that again? It made sense at the time, I just do not recall the details.
I thought that he ran somewhere in the 4.4s on one of his attempts, that's not accurate? And his official time is 4.52, si I'm guessing that it's more relevant than 4.56. Mike Williams is my template forRogers- he ran an official 4.53 iirc- I think that Rogers will be a good player in the NFL if his off field issues are behind him- very good athlete, physical, catches alomost eveerything thrown to him and he looks way more polished to me as a WR than Patterson.
What about T.J Moe? I know he had a horrible 40 yard dash, but he absolutely killed the rest of the combine. He was the top performer in bench reps, 3 cone drill, 20 yard shuttle, and 60 yard shuttle.
Sure. This is my case against it. First off let's not be under any illusions that the "official" times are fully electronic. They're not. They're half-electronic. They're electronic at the finish but not electronic at the start. There's a human making a judgment about when to start the timer. If that were all, then I would still like the official times. I trust human judgment for this kind of thing. People underestimate how good a human can get this sort of thing. But there's a problem in the methodology. In order to make the task of starting the timer as uniform and repeatable as possible, they're actually working against themselves and introducing perversions. I'll explain. What they try to do to make it uniform is start the timer at hand movement. But players themselves do not have uniform methods of starting their 40 yard dash. It's not even about how they're coached, it's about how their individual bodies work. Some guys move their hand before their body moves. Some guys get their body and feet planted and moving, exploding, before they move their hands. We're talking about hundredths and tenths of a second here. This is why at the start the coach that sits at the start of the 40 yard dash tries and give them explanations on how they should do it. They're trying to fit potentially round pegs into square holes. We need all of you to start your 40 the same way because we're going to apply the same rule about when to start the 40 across the board no matter what. That's why he'll blow the whistle when a guy rolls forward and moves a little before he ACTUALLY starts. He knows that guy is going to have a slow time, because of the rules they set up about when to start. He'll also blow the whistle for what he calls a "jack start". And he'll also blow the whistle for a starting stance that they just haven't seen before. Which kind of tells you what we're looking at here as far as the round peg, square hole thing. The biggest surprise to me when I started re-timing all of these 40 yard dashes frame by frame using video was that if I created a uniform start rule to where I started the timer at the exact moment when the player's back foot actually leaves the earth, and stop it the exact moment he crosses the finish...like 9 times out of 10 I got a pretty fair approximation (like, within a hundredth or two hundredths of a second) of the UNOFFICIAL time for that player. Seriously. That was a shock. Sure, there were times when the unofficial time didn't seem reflective of what actually just happened...but not very often and the average variance was just not much. On the other hand, if you compare what I got to the OFFICIAL times, I got these huge differences. And I'm not even talking about just raising everyone's time by like an average of 0.08 seconds...I'm talking weird perversions. The best example had to be Kendall Wright's official 4.63 which wasn't even close to what he ran. I can only guess this is why literally no team in the NFL uses those half-electronic times put out by National Scouting at the Combine itself. Every team has their own system of hand timers. They usually have at least 6 guys hand timing a player at the same time. Some teams toss out the high and low and average the other four. Some teams average all six. But either way this is a billion dollar industry and the NFL teams are competitive with one another to the most ultimate degree, and yet they have decided that these half-electronic times do not in any way give them a competitive advantage. They stick with the hand times. And judging by my own experiences, I can see why. Another issue is that probably the biggest source of historical 40 times anyone has is NFL Draft Scout. But prior to 2012, the times you found on file for everyone at the Combine were NOT the half-electronic times. They were Rob Rang asking scouts from a team what they got for a player, and taking the fastest verifiable 40 hand time that he got from an actual scout. So now when you see the official ones go up on NFL Draft Scout, from the public's standpoint they're not comparable post-2012. I think they should just move to a fully track and field style electronic system where there's a ready-set-go and the players have to react to the buzzer. But the NFL won't do that because they don't want to give up the comparability of the current times to older times. Not because of the public, mind you. Just if you're a team and you have times on file for all these thousands of players in the NFL right now and suddenly you're not sure if a 4.6 is good or not, and how it compares with the 4.34 you have on file for the free agent-to-be...can be a problem. But I think they should bite the bullet. Personally, if they DON'T bite that bullet, I like the idea of uniformly starting the timer when everyone's foot leaves the earth. I think it has the benefit of approximating those unofficial times which have been happening for years, and it also makes intuitive sense that you're literally measuring the time it took for each player to step-step-step across 40 yards of space. There's no more issues of rolling starts, jack starts, odd stances or any of that crap. Your foot leaves the ground, you started.
You're guessing the 4.52 is more relevant than the 4.56 because you like him and it's a faster time and it makes him look better. But it's not actually a more relevant time, in my experience. Da'Rick Rogers had a fantastic Combine in every measure except the 40 and the bench press. But the 40 did little to assuage my fears related to his speed ON THE FIELD, and his bench press did little to prove to me that despite his off field character issues he's actually a hard worker. I would compare his measurements to Miles Austin actually, from what I remember of his numbers coming out of Monmouth. And that's not a bad thing because obviously Austin has been a very good player.
