Dolphins and Hartline are talking contract

Sure I do, because it is still a higher correlation than TDs.

 

Because they have superior strength, speed, jumping ability, etc. etc. etc.

Intelligence isn't going to let Rudy catch a lot of footballs. But physical ability lets a knucklehead like Chad Johnson or Chris Henry score.

 

Sure, and intelligence and technique lets lots of players without strength or speed score too.

 

But is 100% irrelevant to our discussion. Yards are harder to come by when you get to the other side. Are you disputing my point? Then tell me why AP's ypc goes from 9.7 from his own 20, to 2.1 in the red zone, and 1.5 in the 10?Arian Foster 5.1 to 2.8.

Go up and down the list, it gets harder to complete a pass or run when you get into the end zone. Brian Hartline catching a 30 yard pass from his own 10, doesn't impress me as much as catching a 30 yard pass from the opponents 25.

 

Ain't helping Hartline is it?

 

Predictive =/= absolute, unless there's a perfect correlation. You are arguing from an absolute standpoint. You do not have the evidence to argue from that standpoint. That's been the problem with you and Shou's stances on Hartline. You're arguing that Hartline is definitively X, based on non 100% predictive stats.

If you guys were weathermen, and told us there was an 80% chance we'd get rain and we didn't, you'd tell us we must have gotten rain.

 

Code:

BY FIELD POSITION	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FUM	LST
OWN [B]1-20[/B]	11	260	[B]23.6[/B]	80	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
OWN [B]21-5[/B]0	39	536	[B]13.7[/B]	57	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	1	1
OPP [B]49-20[/B]	23	270	[B]11.7[/B]	34	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
OPP [B]19-GOAL[/B]	1	[B]17[/B]	17.0	17	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
OPP [B]10-GOAL[/B]	0	[B]0[/B]	.0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0

Hartlines YPC per field position. The 19-Goal 17 is invalid due to sample size of 1.

Looks like those yards are harder to come by when they get close eh?

 

Thats easy. AP's YPC goes down because he can't run for more than 10 yards inside the 10.

 

No, all I've said is that an individual's TDs are an awful stat to look at.

 

One of the league leaders in receptions of 20+ yards, so I would say it's helping him tremendously. Also helped him get recognized by his peers which gave him Pro Bowl votes.

 

You're being lazy. His ypc goes down every 20 yards for a reason. He can run for 50 from the 50, but his ypc is less. It's easier to defend 20-30 yards than it is 70-100. You've now gone into obtuse mode

 

We keep talking about TDs but you'll venture out of TD discussion any time when it suits your argument.

His propensity to catch 20+ yard passes extinguishes when he gets deep near the goal line. Which is the germane point of this whole discussion.

Helped Jeff Saturday too.

 

No, you've jumped around quite a bit.

Let's re target the conversation.

Hartline has not scored a lot of TDs. Fact.
Hartline has not scored a lot of TDs, regardless of his QB. Fact.
Hartline has not scored a lot of TDs, regardless of the offense. Fact.
Hartline has not scored a lot of TDs, regardless of which WR spot he was playing. Fact.
Hartline has not scored a lot of TDs, regardless of his targets. Fact.

Those are all absolute and inarguable facts.

Where the problem comes in, is with the reason for those facts. You say it has nothing whatsoever to do with Hartline's skills. To back that up, you point to a less than 100% predictive correlation that concludes the number of TDs one year have no bearing on the number TDs the next year.

I'm saying if its less than 100%, then its very possible, based on EVERYTHING else we know, Hartline's totals are exactly correct for his skill set. You forget that, if I were a WR I would suck, that would not mean one year I would get 1 TD and the next I could get 20 TDs. There is a baseline for getting TDs as a WR and Hartline is obviously not meeting that baseline.

 

Are you suggesting people voted for him because of his career accomplishments?

 

And PS, Hartline was tied for 20th with 4 other Wrs for catches of 20+ yards. That is not leading the league.

 

I'm saying player votes are unreliable as they will vote for their friends or whoever had the flashiest highlight that year on ESPN

 

Right, because the statistic isn't very relevant. I don't do it when it suits my argument. I do it all the time. TDs are a bad measurement of individual performance. Thats why YPA is more predictive than QB rating, as the biggest example.

 

Right. As he said, he's around the top-35 WRs in the the league IMO.

 

Yeah that's great considering there's 32 teams and only 32 #1 WRs.

 

Right, and in every case, you can point out a reason why a certain player got votes. Usually undeserving players get votes because of past performance, as was the case with Saturday. Why Hartline though? Are we saying that Brian Hartline is just way cooler than a lot of other WRs that are better?

 

Davone Bess has 3 less catches over 20 yards than Brian Hartline.

LOL.

 

Furthermore, there is no way there's a correlation between 20+ yrd plays and Tds.

 

Right, and Brian Hartline is a low-end #1 WR or a very good #2 WR IMO. I think we are coming to some type of consensus here.

 

...in terms of a single stat.

When it comes to TDs, he tied for second worst.

 

He had a 250 yard game. They saw it on ESPN after their own game. When it comes time to vote, that's what they remember.

Mike Furrey had a better year than Brian Hartline, I'm just saying.

You know what other Miami receiver had a 200+ yard game and also made the probowl once in his career? Chris Chambers. At least CC could score TDs.

Same thing. One game wonders.

 

No, in terms of that single stat, he's much better than 35th. You could even expand it to catches of 25+ yds, and he's 16th best.

 

Low end 1? Low end 1? Any team that has hartline as their #1 is in deep doodoo.

 

I certainly would hope they saw that performance. Justin Blackmon had a game with 230 yds too.

 

And Brian Hartline had a pretty good amount for a starting wide receiver.

Did you not like think to put it at all in any sort of context?

(lol)

 

You could say that for anyone that is starting someone that is at the 'low-end' of the spectrum.

 

Good amount = Yes. Never disagreed. I like Hartline. But he cannot, willnot score a bunch of TDs. If we all left it that, we'd be done two pages ago.

"Among the lead leaders"

I usually don't dip into the 20's to look for a league leader. My league leaders usually stop at 10.

 

Yes. Which means he's not a low #1. He's a 2 and when you put him into the #1 you're screwed.

It's like calling Brady Quinn a starting caliber qb, because he started at QB.

 

Which isn't indicative of his over all worth. Again, Chris Chambers MADE the pro bowl off of one performance. You threw the probowl thing out there as a credibility booster. You gotta live with that. Probowl voting is a joke I wouldn't throw that out there. You have Randy Moss saying he's better than Jerry Rice and he gets a vote. I'm just saying.

 

It's really a pandora's box in that context, because there are over 100 WRs seeing significant snaps in the NFL. Are you better off with a guy thats among the 10-best WRs, then a bunch of other guys that aren't in the top-50, or a bunch of guys that are in the 20-40th best range?

Either way, I think we're pretty much in agreement here regarding where Hartline is among the league's WRs.

 

He's a pretty darn good WR who can't score TDs. That's been my whole position, isn't that controversial so we went 5 pages and are back where we started.



I don't consider a guy who is #20, and has a little less than 1/3 the total of the top guy, to be a league leader. Sorry, can't do it. The pedant in me can't let it go.

 

Of course not, I never suggested that Hartline is a 250 yd per game WR.

It is a pretty slippery slope to say start picking out big games as reasons why someone gets PB votes. Chambers had a very good year in 2005.

And the PB votes for Hartline absolutely is a credibility booster for him. It goes along with everything thats been said about the guy. He's the type of player coaches love.

 

I know I know. I just feel like we are arguing two different things.

You're arguing his worth as a WR.
Me his TD catching ability.

I think we agree on both. But just like to internet fight.

 

Believe it or not, there's quite the contingent that believe Hartline has no business as the team's #3 WR.

 

Well that's silly. He's a very capable 2. If he was our #3 I'd be ecstatic.

 

Believe it or not, some think he wouldn't start over Jordan Shipley.