Dolphins and Hartline are talking contract

Dude, you're crazy...that was because Tannehill threw it badly.......uh?....what?....really...that wasn't Tannehill?

 

Matt Moore actually made a great throw on that play.

 

like that time tanny underthrew hartline by 20 yards because hartline isn't fast enough

 

The only way he could have caught that in stride is if he pinned himself against the sideline. And if he isn't creating that space like he did, then Matt Moore enda up throwing an INT.

 

I respectfully don't agree with that. There was enough room between Hartline and the sideline to properly adjust his route while the ball was in the air like receivers routinely do on fades. I don't see Moore throwing an INT when the corner is in trail position and not looking back on the ball, so there was no reason for Hartline to use his body to create separation. However, I don't think that's what he was doing; I think he simply didn't read the throw until the tail end of it which forced him to make a last second acrobatic attempt.

 

Just remembering when he came into the league, there was a lot of coverage of Michael Crabtree with his mom, and she looked pretty good to me. Definitely a MILF. Can we have our personal MILF list include women younger than us? If we can't my list is gonna be kind of small.

 

Talk about being a playmaker. What a catch!

 

I guarantee it.

 

That they will or will not?

 

I think the mistake people fall into is thinking we need a hundred guys that scoring TDs. It's all about pieces complementing each other. Our offense would be just as bad with three Wallaces as it would be with three Hartlines. The best offenses have players that attack different areas of the field and have different strengths. Some defenses are better equipped to handle bigger bodied WRs while other defenses can stuff the less physical, quick types. Some defenses are stronger up the middle while others are better on the edges. And those strengths can even change during the game depending on what their focus is. If they're stopping one thing, you test a different part of the D. Looking at just the skill positions (not talking about the OL here) my preferred offense would have a WR that can threaten deep outside, a WR that can threaten the middle zones inside and out and a TE that can threaten the seam. I want a speed back and a pounder back. I want a back that can be a mis-match against LBs in the passing game. And I want a QB that is enough of a running threat to make them pay for focusing on my backs or sitting back in coverage. I want all these pieces to be very comfortable working together so that they adjust on the fly to what the D is doing. I put a bigger value on that familiarity than it seems many other here do as I believe that good players working together will beat more talented individual players working independently. So here's my list:

QB that is a run/pass threat: Tannehill
WR that can threaten the outside: My preference is Jennings since I believe he has the best chance to develop familiarity quickest and b/c I think that as he ages he could more easily fill the #2 role.
WR that can threaten the middle zones: Hartline is my preference since he has already shown great cohesion with RT. Bess also fits here but I don't feel he's as good at working the sidelines or in the middle beyond 10 yards. I also hope that one of the younger WRs I add could supplant Bess next year as he becomes a FA.
TE that can threaten the seam: Fasano has strengths, but that's not one of them. Clay hasn't shown enough of that skill to make me think he's the solution and Egnew may fill the role but IMO is still more likely to be cut before the season than end up the starter. My preference would be for a guy like Keller.
Pounder back: Thomas has been okay. He's made some dynamic plays, but also been a dud at times. Also he's too injury prone for me to feel comfortable as a long term solution. He's okay as a stop-gap IMO. Gray may fill the role. At this point I see him as if we just drafted a decent prospect with about third round talent.
Speed back: Miller shows enough for me to feel that it's a good gamble to rely on him. I'd love to find a way to keep Bush here as well since he's a such a good locker room guy and has proven the ability to function as the speed back and other roles.
Receiving back: Bush has shown ability here and as RT is given more of the playbook that role should expand. Miller also shown promise here.

My ideal offseason (just in terms of offensive skill positions) would add Jennings and Keller as FAs while retaining Hartline, Bush and Fasano at reasonable prices. Then drafting Stedman Bailey in the second and a TE like Escobar or Reed later. I'd also double up at WR and take a flyer on a pounder back with mid-to later picks.

 

I think people are placing way too much importance on TDs. Sure they matter. And you obviously want to get as many as possible. But there are significant constraints on receivers in getting TDs. Sure, I'll concede Hartline might be below average in however much ability is required to get a lot of TDs. But the fact is that even among those WRs who have great ability to "get TDs", their number of TDs varies from season to season. It depends on opportunity and luck, both of which also vary from season to season. And aside from TDs, Hartline brought enough value to the team w/out TDs to be a pretty good player.

 

Yes they do vary from season to season....except for Hartline. I'm not sure why this point keeps getting overlooked.

 

Maybe the biggest problem is that Hartline had a rookie QB that may or may not be that good throwing to him? I think it is fair to say that Tannehill would have been a nightmare without Hartline this year, instead of just another bad QB dream in which fans hope he turns out better than all the other QBs that have gone through the revolving door since Marino retired.

It is interesting how Hartline had 108 catches for 5 TDs his first 3 years with bad QB play (and OC/game-planning) while Brandon Marshall was almost exclusively the only WR targeted in the red zone, but then Hartline has 74 catches for 1 TD with rookie Tannehill throwing him the ball and his catch/TD ratio drops from 21.6/1 his first 3 years to 74/1 and some fans think the problem is only Hartline...hmmm

Looking at some of the top WRs this year:
C Johnson...122 catches, 5 TD...24.5/1 catch/TD ratio
A Johnson...112 catches, 4 TD...28/1 catch/TD ratio
R Wayne...106 catches, 5 TD...21.2 catch/TD ratio
W Welker...118 catches, 6 TD...19.7/1 catch/TD ratio

Compare similar to Hartline's pre-Tannehill years
BH pre-RT...108 catches, 5 TD...21.6 catch/TD ratio

Then looking at Hartline's year compared to the Boldin who seriously helped the Ravens win the Super Bowl:
Hartline...74 catches, 128 targets, 1083 yards, 14.6 ypc, 1 TD
Boldin...65 catches, 112 targets, 921 yards, 14.2 ypc, 4 TD

Does anyone think Hartline had the better QB throwing him the ball than Boldin?

Of course, looking at our own team we can also see that Bess went from 130 catches and 8 TD for a 16.25/1 catch/TD ratio over the past two years to a 61/1 catch/TD ratio with Tannehill throwing him the ball.

Considering Tannehill had a pretty low completion/TD ratio with a couple of NFL caliber WRs on the roster as a 5th year senior in college may support that the QB has something to do with the drop in catch/TD ratio for our WRs.

Maybe with improved QB play along with adding another good WR to the mix Hartline and Bess can improve on their previous catch/TD ratio before they had an underdeveloped, rookie QB throwing them the ball. I know it isn't popular and sounds like some wild, crazy, out-there thought to think that as QB play improves so do WR opportunities for scoring more TDs, but I think it worth giving Hartline another 3-4 year contract to find out.

 

Hartline has low TDs regardless fo the QB throwing to him. Just stop already.

 

Because their predictive value is extremely low. Not that complicated.

 

Yeah. What was I thinking.

A guy that always scores 3 and under TDs gets a free pass every year. I'm sure Hartline is line for 24 TDs this coming year.

 

The Bold is more ridiculous than what you are trying to make an argument against, TBQH. Debatable at best. Nightmare without him and his "Tripping over nothing in an open field"? Sorry. No. I watched the highlight video linked on one of the threads here showing every catch BH had this season with my GF who doesnt know the first thing about football and halfway throught the video her first remark was "He falls a lot".

Yes. Yes he does.

Yes. Yes it is.

Are you seriously comparing the production of GOOD WRs over the course of 1 season to BHs average production numbers over 3 seasons?. LOL Yeah his numbers look good in that comparison. What a hindrance his QB is.



No one is saying improved QB play wouldn't help every end of the spectrum, but don't start the Hartline parade and attempt to throw RTH under the bus please. The guy has solid hands and is a decent WR. That is all. Not a playmaker in any sense.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say you thought scoring TDs is an inherent skill.

Plenty of ways of predicting how many TDs he will have next season. The most accurate ones don't include TDs scored this season.

 

Interesting that Fin D who always talk about how people keep their opinions dispite seeing evidence to the contrary, does the exact same thing when someone points out something he doesn't like.

 

Yeah so when they don't vary we can just go ahead and assume it is what it is.

 

If you want to ignore the reason why they actually vary, then sure. You're free to assume.

 

But if you put $100 on 1, the last two years, based on the year before, you would have won both times.

 

Right, and if you reached that prediction of 1 by using TDs, you'd have been right because of luck, not because WR TDs have predictive value.

 

Saying hartline previously got 1.66 TDs on average Per season compared to 1 this season and blaming that solely on Tannehill is not "evidence to the contrary" by ANY means.

In Fin D's defense, I hate stupid too. Thats bad logic by any means with zero evidence for anything.

 

Agreed. There's just know way to forsee Hartline being as good as he is at not scoring TDs. It's a rare talent.

 

There are plenty of ways of predicting WR production.

 

I understand why they vary. There are a million factors that go into scoring TDs. Game plan. Offense scheme. Role in the offense. QB's accuracy. Defensive scheme. Double teams. Running game. Etc. etc. I understand a Calvin Johnson can score 12 TDs and then drop down to 5. I get it.

But Calvin Johnson is a guy who can score a bunch of TDs, but sometimes doesn't. Brian Hartline is a guy who naturally will not score a bunch of TDs. He just doesn't have it. All the skills you need to score a bunch of TDs, isn't there.

Superior break away speed. Superior juking ability. Superior Strength. Superior jumping ability. Height plus athleticism. These are all things that WRs can use to bust into the end zone. He'll sneak in a TD here and there, and might even approach the upper single digits. But do you ever, with your crystal ball of predictive factors, see him scoring prolifically?

 

Such as?

 

If you don't know, obviously you are much inferior and less intelligent than Stringer.

 

Two ways for a WR to score. Catch the ball in the end zone or catch the ball and then carry it into the end zone. He sucks *** at both. He's not going to suddenly acquire the skills you mentioned in his 10th-15th year playing the game. I'm fairly certain of this.

 

You would have to define what you mean by prolific? Is he a top-20 WR? I don't believe so. Top-35? I think he is. I certainly could see him having 5-10 TDs under the right circumstances.

 

Statistically, targets are a very good predictor.

 

Well then we mostly agree. I peg him as a 1-5 TD guy. When he was second fiddle to Marshall, he scored 1. When he was the main guy, he's 1 again. Last year Matt Moore threw quite a few touchdowns in 9 games and Hartline didn't get any of that (Bess did though).

It would have to be a magical confluence of events for Hartline to score 10 TDs IMO. The skill set isn't there. Just like I don't expect Bess to have many 40+ yard plays except for a few times when things just happen.

 

That is a terrible defense.

 

Hartline's 1 TD performance defies statistics then.

He scores 1 TD no matter what. :P

 

I could see 8-10 TDs from Hartline, if the NFL expands to a 82 game season. But he's not turning into a tackle breaking, defender eluding, jump ball winner type, ever. He has his moments, he's a solid guy to have but a scorer he is not. I'm not sure why this is even up for discussion at this point.

 

Can you elaborate on that? Do u mean a certain # of targets typically produce a certain number of TDs? That's be interesting to look at but I'm not sure if that's what you meant.

 

I think he's very good at eluding defenders. Thats evidenced by the number of catches over 20 yds.

I do agree that he's not good at breaking tackles or winning jump balls. I think there are other skills more important than those however, which he possesses.

 

What evidence has anyone given that Hartline scores TDs? Interesting you do what you always do, breeze in to argue, then bounce.

 

I'm saying that if you want to predict how many TDs a WR will have in 2013, the # of targets in 2012 would be more predictive than the # of TDs in the 2012.