Tier 1 WRs: Allen, Patterson, Bailey and Hopkins, A Metrics Breakdown

This is hardly some new theory. People have always said you can't measure heart and that they want smart, driven, good character players. That wasn't b/c they wanted to start a church group. The NFL has used psychological testing for years, in large part, to try and figure out which players have the personality to succeed. The NFL has always understood that a large number of supremely talented players fail despite the measurables. At WR in particular there has always been those big and fast guys who don't succeed despite all the physical talent in the world. It's been nearly 20 years since I scouted, but even back then it was well established that players that had demonstrated improvement in their game are more desirable than those who had not. Sure you had and always will have the Al Davis types who focused on the measureables almost to the exclusion of everything else, but that's just the way some do it, not all. It's hardly revolutionary in any industry to believe that people that had demonstrated a willingness to work at their craft before you hired them are more likely to do so after you hire them. But if you to think I'm being revolutionary, so be it. By the way, I've developed a couple of other revolutionary sayings; "timing is everything" and "if at first you don't succeed, try, try again."

 

Amazing eyes, yes. Plus the patience to wait for the replay.

 

This is all fine and good but you're kind of contradicting yourself. You put forward the theory that the NFL has such a high bust rate on WRs because they place so much emphasis on athleticism. You implied that you know better.

Yet, in order to validate your priorities for the position (which evidently are so much more accurate than the NFL's), you cite how the NFL has cared about these things very strongly for years and years and years. Well if that's the case, then that contradicts your original assertion.

My issue is whenever someone implies that they've found alchemy. In other words, the MFL has a high bust rate because their systematic priorities are incorrect, but YOU have found the right systematic factors to prioritize and that's why everyone should believe you. In finance we run across that all the time, and there's every reason to be wary of it.

 

LOL! Ahhh you mother ****er. You got me there haha.

 

In all industries there are some who do their jobs better than others. In the NFL when it comes to scouting, I believe the ones that focus too much on the measurables are the ones that don't do as good of a job. Every team looks at film and puts some level of emphasis on the player's development. IMO the ones that place little emphasis on a demonstrated desire to work on their craft and much on the measurables are more prone to drafting busts. They're drafting the combine warriors, the ones who win the underwear olympics. This is talked about every year. And every year there players just like that taken too high. So while the concept I'm talking about is hardly revolutionary, it's execution varies. People get swayed by measurables. Not all, of course, but enough that the WR position has a higher bust rate than most other positions.

 

I can say this, if I was a scout, a lot of payers that are good football players who after research, demonstrate poor work ethic or a lack of enthusiasm to spend time in the gym would be off my board.

 

I agree 100%. That's the part that we don't get to do. We don't get to interview them and their coaches. The most we get to do is sift through rumors. That's why I like to see evidence that they worked on their craft. That was a big reason I was so high on Tannehill last year. I saw polish in his drop backs and fakes that you only develop if you work at it over time. IMO that makes him far more likely to be a guy who will work at it at the next level. And I don't believe that more than maybe 1% of the players can be successful over any extended period at the NFL if they don't work at it. So if I want to maximize my odds of drafting success, I'm banking on the guys who've shown they'll put the work in.

 

Tony Pauline reporting that a big group of draft receivers are all working out together training for the Combine in Florida and Keenan Allen among them is not really impressing. He's just not standing out either in his field work or his timings.

Meanwhile, Stedman Bailey is impressing a lot of people with both his field work and his timing measurements. He's drawing comparisons to Steve Smith...not the one I've been comparing him to, the OTHER Steve Smith, from USC.

Conner Vernon is not expected to run a fast 40 time but he is consistently running the best 10 yard split of all the wide receivers part of the program, and he's doing well on the field with consistent hands.

Scouts expect Ryan Swope to not run fast but the reports out of the training facility are they're wrong. They say he's running in the low 4.4's and doing really well in the jump measurements as well. Interesting.

 

If Swope runs a 4.4, then that is a guy that shoots up the draft. Looking at his film, there's no reason he wouldn't be a potential high 2nd round guy.

 

that is interesting. Wasn't Swope having some difficulty gaining separation at times during Senior Week, or am I thinking of someone else? Is Connor Vernon the next Hartline?

 

tiny hands.

 

I've always viewed Swope as a nice Slot-Plus guy. If he gets overlooked it's only because we all want to shoot for the stars and find the guys that really change games. But if you're at a point where the risk/reward has gotten stretched, that's when you get a guy like Swope, IMO.

Zach Rogers, too. That's the one guy...I know we shouldn't compare players to one another by skin color, or at least it's conspicuous when you compare one white guy to another white guy, but I'll be god damned if Zach Rogers' penchant for getting open and his footwork on the sidelines don't remind me of Brian Hartline.

 

Never effected him at TAMU, particularly when Ryan Tannehill was throwing the ball to him. The guy has glue for hands!!

I would agree with that from a fan's point of view, but I also think fans overrate the overall impact of a wide receiver and do not exactly understand what it is that Joe Philbin is looking for in a receiver. Heck, I don't know what Joe is looking for in a receiver, but looking at what he had in Green Bay, I feel I have a good guess.

Fans in general see the flash of amazing athleticism and speed and think that's all there is to playing receiver. I think Joe Philbin takes that into account, but it clearly takes a back seat to overall skill level, route running, and hands.

I look at receivers like Quinton Patton, Ryan Swope, and Keenan Allen, and I see players that I believe the Green Bay Packers would be all over.

 

Much ado about nothing, IMO. Somehow his hands weren't too small to catch 252 passes in 4 seasons at TAMU

 

I'm not saying it will cause him to be a failure in the NFL; however I don't think they measure hands just to see how noticeable of a hitchhiker they'll make. Do you believe left tackles get dinged b/c their arms measure short even though their on field performance might not indicate it being an issue? Besides, Swope didn't face as tight of coverage nor as physical of coverage where defenders, especially stronger ones, will be getting their hands on him upon reception as often as he'll encounter in the NFL. Again, not saying it will make him a failure; just saying it might make teams think twice about taking him within day 2 or 3.

BTW, his 8 1/8 inch hands would be good for smallest among all WRs at the 2012 combine.

 

As long as his hands are not abnormally small, I'd not worry about it. Arm length for OTs is something that would be more of a consideration to me. As for small hands, I recall Tannehill had some of the smallest if not smallest QB hands among the top 10-15 QBs last season. In 2008, Henne also had some of the smallest hands among QBs. Last season the WR I recall having the smallest hands, or maybe 2nd smallest, was Chris Givens. Didn't stop him from having a pretty good rookie season.

 

Ryan Swope makes me think a lot of a slightly smaller version of Jordy Nelson. They both have more short area quickness than long distance straight line speed, and IMO, short area quickness is a better trait for receivers to have. Particularly if a receiver's speed is just in a straight line and they don't change direction fast (i.e. Ted Ginn Jr.). Jordy Nelson had glue for hands at Kansas State and was an excellent route runner. He came out of KSU averaging around 13 yards per catch on an impressive 122 reception senior season (caught only 34 balls as a junior). Ryan Swope is another guy with glue for hands and is an excellent route runner. If you watch his film, in particular his 2011 film in Sherman's offense, you see him beat the DB down the field on double moves with regularity. Once he is going as well, he can outrun the defense (which is that characteristic that Brian Hartline lacks and is the only thing keeping him from being a true top flight WR).

I absolutely hate giving these labels, but IMO, Ryan Swope has the potential to be a solid #2 receiver in the NFL that can play all three positions. I know some want a true "#1" guy, but I don't think having that bell cow is necessary and I believe Joe Philbin thinks the same way. Jeff Ireland may be a little different with respect to that, so this will be interesting. IMO, I'd rather have 3-4 #2's than have that one guy who is a target hog.

 

I don't agree with Nelson not having long speed. He ran a 10.63 100 meter in high school, good for the 3A state record in Kansas. He owns the 200M record as well.

 

To me, you can't be Jordy Nelson if you don't have Nelson's power and strength after the catch. That's what makes him who he is to me. Great all-around game, body control, hands, the speed to outrun a defense, the whole lot...but where he stands out is power and strength before, during and after the catch.

The whole Green Bay thing...is just very unfortunate. I think people take the wrong lessons from it sometimes. Every single one of those guys is a play maker. They're not just system guys nor are they proof that you don't need a big time receiver. They're all big time receivers. They could've all come out of that system to another team and looked really good, the only difference being they'd be the only guy looking really good on their new teams. But it seems to me like they're always held up as an example of why less talent is OK. They should be the opposite. They should be an example of how you should hoard playmakers and keep acquiring them. It's becoming this thing where if you're a guy that doesn't seem like you have game-breaking talent, suddenly you're desirable because it means you're a Green Bay guy.

But watch this and tell me Greg Jennings is not and has not been a play maker...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxwaF3viHK0&feature=player_detailpage#t=59s

That's an absurd play! When have we ever seen Brian Hartline make a play like that, as a for instance? Or even Davone Bess.

And like I said, up there they all make plays like those. This is James Jones stepping up to the plate, even before he REALLY stepped up to the plate this year with like 49,000 touchdowns.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcAe1KIcA3c&feature=player_detailpage#t=91s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcAe1KIcA3c&feature=player_detailpage#t=146s

And then Jordy Nelson. I'm not even going to time index this video. Just watch the whole damn thing. Look at the range of plays he can make, from making people miss, to outrunning everyone on the field, to bulling people after the catch, making spectacular 50/50 plays, etc.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlMZzwquX30

If you're buying Ryan Swope it's because you think he can become a play maker that makes plays like the above players make plays. You buy him because you think he's going to develop into a damn fine receiver that will put on a beautiful double move and then outrun every defender on the field whereas a Brian Hartline would get caught from behind. You believe he'll jump up for 50/50 balls and make a play. You believe he'll catch the ball, break a guy's ankles, and then move up the field for free yardage. You believe he'll catch the ball and a tackler will just slide off him because of his strength, or that he'll catch the ball in front of the end zone and then just physically bull his way in so that you're not left 1st & Goal on the 5 yard line. You believe he'll get the ball in the open field and show unusual instincts to evade the defense and then press them with his speed.

You think he'll make plays.

All that said, as I noted before I consider Swope a nice Slot-Plus and I would gladly upgrade Davone Bess with him at the right price provided certain other players are off the board.

 

With all due respect, no one is making that case and I think its a misunderstanding (by the anti trade Marshall crowd) of what's been said (by the pro trade Marshall crowd) and it has festered into that.

The point always was that Philbin's offense doesn't really have a designated #1 guy. Not that #1 talent wasn't preferred. Marshall has #1 talent and expects to be a #1 WR. That's why he didn't fit. His skills fit, but he as a head case, did not. Marshall has to be the number #1 WR on a team or he starts to lose it. Philbin's offense needs guys willing to be the #2 or #3 in a given week depending on opponents, injuries, etc.

 

Completely agree. One of my biggest football pet peeves is listening to others downgrade the high talent level of the Packers receivers because they play "in a system". It's like they're treated as though they're 6th & 7th round draft picks who only excel b/c Green Bay puts them in a position to succeed and b/c of Aaron Rodgers despite Nelson being a few picks away from 1st round status, Cobb a rare 2nd round slot receiver, Jones was a mid 3rd round pick (which suggests there's some talent there considering he came from San Jose St), and Jennings being a 2nd rounder out of the MAC doesn't happen unless he has talent, which he obviously does as he won MAC Offensive POY and tallied 3500 receiving yards & 39 TDs in 3 years. Plus Jennings' peers voted him 74th & 56th in back to back years on NFL's Top 100 list. These guys are all studs, period.

And yes, Swope would be a nice upgrade over Bess at the right price and provided other certain players are off the board.

 

I agree here, but there are plenty of posters who give entirely too much credit to Green Bay's "system" for their receivers' success. For instance, the notion that Hartline could be another Jordy Nelson is absolutely absurd. Nelson is an Alpha receiver regardless of what team he's on. He's closer to a Michael Irvin type player than a system guy. A healthy Jennings is an impact player regardless of system; had he come from Michigan rather than Western Michigan he's possibly a late 1st rounder.

These Packer receivers have to have talent to do what they do, otherwise Green Bay wouldn't be spending all these high picks on them. There are a lot of posters here who seem to think we don't need as much top talent in Philbin's system, when in fact I'd argue we need EVEN MORE TALENT b/c Philbin likes to spread the ball around, and as such the more playmakers we have the better chance of breaking a play on any given snap, where as if we we're feeding 1 main receiver there wouldn't be as great a need to have a wealth of talent b/c they wouldn't be seeing as many opportunities.