Tier 1 WRs: Allen, Patterson, Bailey and Hopkins, A Metrics Breakdown

46 pass attempts behind the LOS.
236 pass attempts from 0-9 yards.
108 pass attempts from 10-19 yards.
51 attempts 20+ yards

Compare that to Aaron Rodgers 2012:

85 pass attempts behind the LOS
303 pass attempts 0-9 yards
125 pass attempts 10-19 yards
72 pass attempts 20+ yards

Aaron Rodgers 2011
78 behind LOS
230 0-9 yards
145 10-19 yards
66 20+

Aaron Rodgers 2010
78 behind LOS
268 0-9 yards
147 10-19 yards
85 20+

So, he had 1682 total attempts measured in these three years (I am assuming this is not counting throw aways, spikes, and batted balls). So, about 14% of his overall passes are behind the LOS. About 13% of his passes are for 20+ yards. Roughly 48% are in the 0-9 yards range, and roughly 25% is in the 10-19 yards range.

So, IMO, when looking for what receivers fit best in Miami, I think you would look for the ones that do well in the 0-19 yard range. IMO, a guy who is more of a down the field threat than a true RAC threat that can play multiple positions out wide is not a good fit for Miami. That's why I'm not convinced they will pursue Mike Wallace in free agency (Greg Jennings is a much better fit), and I think they will focus more on Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson than a guy like Marcus Wheaton in this draft.

 

If they see it the way you do, that would make sense. I sort of hope not, though, because I am not sold on Allen nor on Patterson. Not at 12, certainly.

 

What are your guys feelings on DHB? He's likely to be cut (assuming he's not willing to take a massive restructure from the Raiders) and might be able to be had for cheap. He's had one good season, regressed this past season, but looks like he's got *something* to offer. He's hardly a route running gem, but he does have the deep speed.

 

I haven't paid much attention to how he's looked it he NFL. Coming out, I liked his ability to run after the catch and aggressive way of getting out of tackles (more physical than I expected for a speed guy). I can't recall the knocks on him. Imprecise routes?

I haven't looked at him since he entered the black hole that is Oakland.

I mean, if the Raiders are cutting him, and they aren't exactly world-beaters with a surplus of talent, it makes me wonder what the problem is. Caveat emptor when you're not just shopping the scrap heap, but a terrible team's scrap heap. Then again, Randy Moss.

 

ahh, the Ireland logic.

in the pros, there's no way Bailey will be a better deep threat than Patterson. lets chill a bit on the Bailey love-fest people, I've seen Steve Smith comparisons but those are pretty inaccurate considering Smith was a much more explosive player when he entered the league.

Cordarrelle may be the most physically gifted player in this entire draft, right up there with Barkevious Mingo. he's a taller version of Percy Harvin, and you're saying you'd rather pass on him to draft another Ryan Broyles.

 

Coming out of that draft I wouldn't have been interested, but I've seen him play a few times, and I would be interested in us bringing him in for sure. I wouldn't sign him instead of Jennings/Wallace/Bowe, but he's a guy I'd like to see us give a new chance too. It could turn out great for us.

 

I don't agree that Patterson is more likely to be better than Bailey. There's far more to being a successful NFL WR than measurables. The bigger parts are work ethic and personality (drive, etc.) assuming a given level of physical talent. WR is such a high bust position b/c people focus too much on the measurables. In my experience the best indicators are whether the WR shows development in his game, whether it's obvious that he's a guy who works on his craft. That's obvious in Bailey's game and not so obvious in Patterson's.

 

In my opinion, this blanket statement is not supportable with data.

 

The data I've seen generally categorizes WR as one of the highest bust rate positions in the first round. While there's an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a "bust", I think most would agree that WR is one of the highest bust rate positions in the first round. As to why they bust so often, that's a matter of opinion. I think it's b/c there is a transition to playing in the NFL where you face more press and better athletes. That means that they can't get by on just being a better athlete than their opponents as they did in college. They have to work on their craft, learn to beat press, run more disciplined routes, etc. That's on top of learning the playbook, adjusting to the speed of the game and just learning to be a pro like every other position. And if they end up in an offense that requires their WRs to make quick reads and adjustments before and after the snap (like the Dolphins), then the transition is even more difficult. We've seen how long it took some vets to crack the line-up this past year. If I were drafting for such a team, I would put a priority on WRs that had a history of working at their craft. I'd want intelligent WRs who showed maturity and discipline. I'd take that over a slightly better athlete, not b/c of any moral compunction, but simply b/c taking a great athlete who can't get on the field won't make the team better or make me look like a good GM.

 

Granted. But that doesn't necessarily say anything. It could very well just be the natural rate of uncertainty or unpredictability inherent to that position.

Yes it is, and that's what I was saying. I'm wary of these reinvent the wheel/cold fusion theories about how thousands of people with decades of experience have been doing it all wrong and how I have found the key that they do not know, etc.

 

My concern is that he apparently is a poor fit for the WCO, but I thnk he opens up the possibility for a deep threat. Not sure. Stuff like this has such a heavy affect on the draft I have to keep an eye on it.

With regards to Patterson being this year's Percy Harvin, I can understand that from a utility point of view but I have to think Harvin is stronger, at least from what I've seen. Granted, I'm biased and have seen Harvin tear it up for the Vikings so maybe coming out of college it was a straight comparison.

 

Cordarrelle's size makes him pretty strong. I still remember a play against Georgia where he ran a slant and a linebacker fanned out to him to try and "cover" him (which to the linebacker evidently meant running headlong into him and tackling him). Cordarrelle was looking back for the ball and didn't see the linebacker until it was too late so he collided. The linebacker turned into a cartoon character running full speed into a tree trunk and then sliding down to the ground pathetically.

Another play comes to mind for Cordarrelle. He's taking a run against South Carolina I believe it was. He hits the edge and turns but there's a corner that has won against the receiver pretty well, and he's cluttering the road. Patterson leaps, clears no less than like 19 feet through the air, and immediately as he's landing he is walloped by a defensive player. The contact comes so close to when he's hitting the ground there's really nothing Cordarrelle can do about it to absorb the hit, try and dodge it, etc. He stayed standing though. Ended up gang tackled if I remember right.

 

No, I'm saying I watched film of both players and Stedman will be a more productive pro over his career.

And if you read more of my posts, I doubt you'd say I use Ireland logic most of the time (though I see how you're have interpreted that comment as an Ireland mindset).

I don't think Cordarrelle will develop as well as people assume he will. And there are more risk factors that go with that potential ceiling.

Realistically, Ireland is unlikely to spend a first on a WR as also get a top tier WR in free agency.

Greg Jennings plus Stedman Bailey is far superior to Cordarrelle Patterson and Ramses Barden.

I am looking at the big picture.

 

And Percy Harvin is a LOT more sudden in his cuts than Cordarrelle and accelerates better.

 

Cordarrelle is a very good prospect, but in some areas Harvin eclipses him. I think Harvin excels at hanging onto the ball and catching the ball in contact... Heavy contact... A bit more so than Cordy, who I saw drop a few in such situations.

 

Furthermore, Cordarrelle, who looks to be a slightly lesser Percy Harvin in some ways, should go LATER than Harvin went. At most, he should go where Harvin went.

Harvin was drafted 22nd in the first round. THAT'S where Cordarrelle's value begins, imo. 12 is too damned high for a guy like him, who rounds off routes, among other things.

 

Check body off the list, that kid is jacked from head to toe..no wonder the kid bounced off him, impressive size.

 

Patterson can make a great first cut, especially good considering his length and long legs at 6-3 or so. But these comparisons to Harvin- that's reach imo- Harvin is a special, special talent. Way more muscular than Patterson, too. He could throw more moves at you than Patterson ever will be able to, imo.

As to this study in the OP, I'd like to see where Marques Wilson and Da'Rick Rogers stack up, factoring in thier 2011 seasons (not cut short or transfer).

 

Percy Harvin is also 4 inches shorter

 

Not to derail the thread, but I also used to believe that QBs accuracy affected YAC. However, THIS research by Brian Burke kinda made me re-think that.

Does anyone know where to find YAC data for college players?

 

The more I watch Patterson, the more I wonder if he has enough burst to be drafted in the first round. I'm not sure he's the type of player that is going to make DBs look like they're taking bad angles. He has great instincts and great balance. He knows how to set up routes pretty well. I'm just not sure he has explosiveness. Still reminds me of Roddy White a lot.

I'm really interested in seeing his 10 yd split.

 

I'm not going to try and make everyone like Cordarrelle Patterson especially as high as 12 overall. If you don't like him you don't like him and there's no problem with that.

But I do take issue with some of the details. For instance what I bolded above. Every receiver drops a few in "heavy contact" situations. Including Percy Harvin.

This is a four-game sample of catches I consider to be physical because of contact either just before the ball comes in, during the catch, or just after the catch to where if the ball popped out it would've been an incomplete catch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=0s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=31s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=54s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=102s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=127s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=146s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=432s

Here are instances during those four games when he couldn't haul in the ball:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=6s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=87s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=452s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=569s

I'm seeing a lot more of him hauling in those tough catches in traffic than not, and when he doesn't I usually see some reasons for that, that don't necessarily derive from him generally having a tough time catching the ball in traffic.

As a bonus, this is not from the four-game study...and so I don't think you can take account of it from a percentage standpoint or anything like that, but here are some more physical catches:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=170s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=385s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=412s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=431s

To me, it's really difficult to look at all these physical catches and come out thinking...he doesn't make physical catches. His entire (misplaced, IMO) reputation for body catching derives from all these physically challenged catches where he needed to use his body to shield the football.

 

As always, I would be very interested in the 10 yard split if I could ever trust it. But it's the least-trustworthy of the measurements, due to measurement error.

 

I would tend to agree with most of that. Patterson looks more explosive running those reverses than catching the ball imo. He makes very good first cuts, but I wouldn't call him a slasher.

What I'm wondering is, is it that he's not terribly explosive or does he just make it look easy because he's so smooth? My guess is a little of both. I watched some film of him again, then some film of Randy Moss, Moss as a template for a WR who is extremely fast and explosive but makes it look easy, partly because he's tall and a long strider- deceptive speed.

Patterson is no Randy Moss. But then again, who is? Patterson gets a "wow" out of me on some of the reverses, but not so much as a receiver who plays with explosion, as you mentioned. He's a compelling talent, but a top #12 talent? Honestly, I don't know and I can't make up my mind. You mentioned, CK mentioned combine testing, we'll see how he tests out. He's fast, he can cut very well, he's a deep threat- but he doesn't floor me. The thing is, I wonder how much better he is than Marques Wilson, among others? I still see value in rds 2-3, not #12 in the 1st. If we drafted Patterson at #12 I'd be cautiously optimistic, but concerned nonetheless.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzGDqM7Enhg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QypUGJch5yk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qrwg7jKMW_Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ltYDTQgf0o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILOiSfpEHUg

 

Marquess Wilson is extremely undervalued IMO. But maybe his attitude is just that bad.

 

This deserves attention. He added another tier of receivers to the study:

http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/06/tier2-wrs/

Some notes:

1. Terrance Williams' stats = Hercules. In addition to catching the football on average 14+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage (way higher than anyone else), he also produces a healthy 5 to 6 yards on average on his screen plays, which he didn't have a lot of to be fair. This is one reason I don't struggle with Terrance Williams and the idea that he will be a valuable player at the next level. I've always considered him more well-rounded than people think. That's the difference between he and DeAndre Hopkins, aside from size.

2. Markus Wheaton's lack of YAC is concerning, and it hints at the physicality characteristics that I have talked about that stand as the one thing that makes me nervous about him, but that lack of YAC could also be misleading. When you look at his screen game, and screens were 24% of his total arsenal so it's not a statistical fluke, he averaged a healthy 5.7 yards on those screens. That's what ultimately comforts me about him, is knowing that he's just so damned fast and quick that he's going to be versatile even if he does have trouble keeping his feet through physicality.

3. Quinton Patton's highest in class YAC average is not surprising, nor is it surprising that his stat breakdowns come out looking a lot like Stedman Bailey's. I think Bailey and Patton are similar creatures. The Combine will be key for them. If they have enough speed you can buy their quickness and savvy. If they don't, they'll sink.

 

I just think Bailey and Patton are as built for our offense as Tannehill is.

 

Wilson has length, speed, some shiftiness, hands and he looks like he knows how to play the position- he's crafty. Here at :18 look at the play then the replay for some trickiness that would get a fist bump or three from Run DMC:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qrwg7jKMW_Y

Now that's tricky. And for the stats fans out there, and as to the QB vs WR cause/effect chicken/egg arguments, that's a lousy throw by Halliday that would effect Wilson's stats- shows as a goose egg and if not for the lousy throw maybe a long TD I think that a 4th-6th rd pick on Wilson would be a GREAT hedge as per a high selection of Patterson, and on top of that just a great pick. And I say 4th-6th because I've seen (Draft Tek) Wilson going last pick in the 6th- what what?

Dude's a baller imo. I'm not terribly opposed to Patterson at #12, it just doesn't sit quite right with me. The more film of Ogletree I see, the more I like. We could do some damage leaving the draft with Ogletree and Poyer at OLB, Misi moved to the middle. Marquise Goodwin, maybe Patton, Baily, Austin, you never know- maybe Wheatley. And Wilson- I don't understand why he so underrated, but I hope that lasts for a few more months. I'm betting that Mike Leach was the problem more that Wilson, I'd love to draft him. I am a bit concerned how he'll handle bump and run coverage/getting off the LOS, though. But I like him, quite a bit.

ps nice burst here after the catch, 1st play at :05, and compare the speed/1st cut to Patterson at 1:02. I really don't know that I like Patterson more than Wilson, we'll see how they test out and rate after the combine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X9GkPgfB9I

 

We really need to be talking about Quinton Patton more. If there is a receiver that is molded perfectly for the type of offense Miami runs, it is him. IMO, he's a younger version of Greg Jennings.

 

Ck, I have been following Wilson closely because of your previous analysis of him real early last year, saw all his games, but only from what I've seen, bad attitude is an understatement.

 

Let's remember that first and foremost Greg Jennings was a true 4.40 guy that was a big time deep threat. I don't think you can say the same about Quinton Patton nor Stedman Bailey for that matter. So I wouldn't necessarily compare them.

Let's see how Stedman and Quinton come out at the Combine.

 

May I ask what's so tricky about what Wilson does @ :18 in? Is it a head fake or what?

 

Left the football team?

In all seriousness it's a nice double move that showed really good body control while on the hoof. It's not the head but the shoulders and feet that interest me more on that play.

 

I can't really tell, because the camera zooms in so quickly. You guys have some amazing eyes!

 

Just go to :25 and you can see it much better, good iso on Wilson making the double move. Great move, horrendous throw from Halliday.

 

I remain a big fan of Hopkins. I like what he does, I like the way he runs his routes and his use of his hands and his head at the top of his routes to create space. He has great hands, great strong hands and he constantly goes up for the tough and dirty ball. He's not fast but he just comes down with the ball and he gets open. He's not the fastest or the best with the ball in his hands but he just gets it done down after down and there's an awful lot to be said for that.

 

My favorite scenario out f this draft is to get Stedman and Terrance, my two favorite WRs who will complement one another well in a corps.

 

Looking at reports on him from back then, he timed anywhere from 4.42 to 4.46 in the forty time, but Tony Pauline and NFL Draft Scout both stated that he wasn't a down the field threat at Western Michigan. His average was a little more than 12 yards per reception as a senior at WMU. His big thing was his ability to get YAC, and his ability to stick the ball into the endzone. I think he scored 39 touchdowns in his final three years at WMU.

 

A lot of people criticized RT's ability to accurately throw the deep ball but pro football focus has his ranked at 7th best in the league.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/02/04/rookie-recap-afc-east/