Most draft scenarios look like we will be overdrafting a player at #12 whose true value is lower than that. But what if a higher rated player *does* fall. Which one player who is consistently talked about as a top ten pick do you think has a chance to fall to #12 and be selected by our Miami Dolphins? I'll go first. I could see DT Star Lotulelei falling to 12 and us swapping picks with Dallas who selects him. Who do you think could fall from the top ten to our 12 spot and will we take him?
For something like this I look at a guy who is rated high, and would fill a very large need for a team 1-2 picks behind Miami. Tampa and Carolina. What the hell do those two teams even need?
I agree with KB when it comes to most likely. I think that Warner could fall (not that I think he should). The guy I'd most like to see fall would probably be Milliner though I doubt that happens.
Milliner, Star, and the pass rush trio of DaMontre, Mingo, and Jarvis Jones. Only the first 2 I'd be happy about falling.... unless the others allow us trade back value. I'd put Ansah right there with Milliner & Star, but I'm an idiot like that.
I'd take Damontre or Milliner if they fell to 12. Though I think I need to watch Damontre and Tank bak to back first... As our 2a pick I'm not sure Tanks much less talented than Moore... In fact Tank may even be better but it depends on the medical prognosis.
Ansah shouldn't enter the equation as high as 12 IMO. You have to try to trade down to 18 if you plan to ake Ansah. You'll still get him one pick before the Giants (a possible threat to select him at 19), you have a natural trade partner in Dallas at 18, and you pick up a little extra value, even if it is only a third round pick, or swapping our high third for their late second.
I understand what you're saying but it's operating under the assumption there's no other movement between 13 and 17 to screw the plan up. What if we trade back to 18 and the Giants subsequently leapfrog us? If Ziggy is my top guy at 12 when we're on the board, I wouldn't risk losing him by trading back 6 spots, as I feel if he's good enough at 18 then he's good enough at 12. I'd undertand trading back 2 or 3 spots like Seattle did with Irvin, but that was their man, and, despite where the pundits and analysts had Irvin on their big board, the Seahawks would've taken him at 12 regardless had they not found a short trade back partner. Interestingly enough, had Seattle pushed the envelop and traded back further like your intimating, they could've very well lost him to Chicago as the Bears reportedly wanted him badly at 19, so what's to say they wouldn't have leapfrogged Seattle at 18? For me personally, I feel Ansah does have value at 12 b/c IMO he's a top 6 pick had he been playing football another year or two longer. I guess it all depends how much the individual values Ziggy.
I'm already compromising on value by over drafting him slightly at 18,. He's a mid-twenties value, but I have to acknowledge, as you said, that others may be willing to overdraft him too. To me, the likely shooting gallery for Ziggy Ansah begins at 19 with the Giants. I don't think any team will be so convicted about Ansah that they will trade up to get him. A big part of the draft is extracting as much value as possible from each pick, picking the most talent as late as possible. That requires a good sense of who else may do this or that, and the sense of how far to push it. I want to trade down to 18 to get him. I'd go lower, but he may be gone. The truth is, if he gets combine buzz, someone will overpay for him earlier than that. But I am not interested in using a premium resource at 12 on a guy with question marks of His magnitude, thoug I love his game. Good GMing requires a value assessment and some discipline.
I simply don't value Ansah that high. The matter is, he simply does not hold that value. Jarvis Jones could easily fall to the 2nd or 3rd round because of his spinal issue. Some very valid concerns following him around. Personally, I'm not a fan of us trading back more than 3-4 spots, unless Ireland simply has a giant block of players all valued roughly the same, regardless of position. This is such a heavy draft for DE and CB in the mid 20s-mid 60s, I wouldn't be pleased if we took similar valued DE/CB in a place where we could take a WR. I view this draft top heavy for WR, and heavy with lower round guys who have lots of flags/issues.
I would agree with this on SOME level, just the general idea that you're not hearing about the warts in Bjoern Werner's game that do exist and aren't being talked about much right now because he's still a junior and everyone is still digesting him...HOWEVER, I think teams are still going to look at this comparatively with the other players at the position. There's simply no way to look at Barkevious Mingo, Alex Okafor or Sam Montgomery and come away rating them higher than Bjoern Werner. Dion Jordan and Jarvis Jones will be pegged for different positions so they won't have the same suitors anyway. The competition for Bjoern Werner is really Damontre Moore and Ezekiel Ansah. Ansah is a guy that scouts are split on. Some say he's a top 10 pick, others say he's a 2nd rounder. That's how wide the disparity is. I'm getting a feeling that generally speaking Damontre Moore is well respected and rated by the scouts. However, the only reason I say so is just because of mock drafts, though. I've never heard people talk about him, talk about why scouts think he's so good. I personally have no idea how anyone could watch Damontre Moore's tape and come away thinking this guy is a better defensive end than Bjoern Werner. I just don't see it and I likely never will. I've had Damontre Moore as the guy that might fall when people start to pick apart his game a little more. IF Tank Carridine did not have a busted ACL right now then Bjoern's place would be in jeopardy, in my opinion. Single jeopardy, not double jeopardy. However, with Werner's most serious competition coming from his own teammate who has a busted knee, I don't think he'll slip. As I said it's Damontre Moore who will most likely slip as people dissect the tape and realize most of what he's getting is from motor and athletic ability and he's really not very strong or a great outside rusher. I think Bjoern will probably help himself at the Combine, overall. He's not your typical white guy defensive end that gets by on strength and motor. He's going to come off pretty athletic. He'll continue to draw the Chris Long comparisons all the way through draft day and he'll go nearly as high as Long did.
I think it goes without saying that whereas it seemed unlikely a month ago for Manti Te'o to fall to #12, now he's more likely than not to get there. It isn't Lennay Kekua that changed this. Nothing's actually changed for the scouts based on Lennay Kekua, truthfully. All Lennay Kekua did was give a venue for revelation about what the scouts actually think of him. It revealed what they've been thinking all along which is that he's just another middle linebacker and not a Patrick Willis, at that. Middle linebackers are like tailbacks. They're almost always rated higher by the media early in the process than they are by the end of the process.
I assume Teo is no longer a top ten lock and thud not going to 'drop'. The Bowl game hurt perception of his ability and impact on a team. Part of his value was the magic quality of leading a team to overachieve and win. Without that he is just another decent lb.
I need to revisit Damontre. I recall not being as impressed as I expected given the mocks. But I think I was drinking the kool aid a bit and even suggested trading up to get him, more because of his rep than my gut. That's why I hate hearing anything at all about a player before I watch film and evaluate him. I need to see Damontre again.
Agree wholeheartedly. IMO Werner should be the highest rated end on more teams' boards so I'd expect him to be the first one taken. Having him slip to 12 for some fluke reason and then grabbing his Noles teammate would be fun, although my Ansah boner is at a 9 while my Werner one is probably in chub mode. Good point about the combine though; that should appropriately draw the attention back toward Bjoern, at least any of it that's been lost in the shuffle from Senior Week. I'm with you on Carradine; rather have him than Moore. DaMontre was highly productive in college, but when you take the time to look at that production it didn't jump out at me as the stats would lead to believe in my humble opinion.
I disagree with that. Even going back to last year he was always front and center as one of the most talented linebackers in college football. I didn't necessarily like him as much as other premier LBs (e.g. Luke Kuechly), but it had nothing to do with physical talent which I felt like he had coming out his ears. I felt he wasn't making good on his physical talent, taking too many false steps. He cleaned that up this year SIGNIFICANTLY. But either way, a year ago he could've come out and been a high pick, probably a 1st round pick.
To the point you've been making about Ansah, it's nice when a guy can reliably get those second chance sacks and plays because he's so physically gifted. But a star in this league at that position has to be able to create those opportunities too. Cameron Wake isn't a star because he gets second chance sacks. He does all that too, but he's a star because that dude whips offensive tackles on the regular and gets after the quarterback. I think Bjoern Werner does that. I think Alex Okafor does it. I think Tank Carridine definitely does it. I think to an extent Barkevious Mingo does it but just doesn't finish well.
Hahah! I knew you would, even as I typed it! And I was exagerrating a bit to make the point. I also thought of Keuchly, but Teo is not quite as good. he's a 1st rounder. I didn't mean he was an average player in the NFL. I meant he was not elite, not top ten. not Pro Bowl. Not special.
Yes to Werner and Tank. I didn't see that out of Okafor. Bustavious is a mirage. The quicker Vernon Gholston.
I would argue there are a handful of sacks those guys won't get that Ziggy will in unconventional fashion b/c they don't have that same combined level of pursuit precision, instinctiveness in pursuit, closing speed (that he maintains control of), athleticism, foot agility, redirect ability, brute strength, etc. I think Werner is the only one comparable in this regard but I'm pressed to give Ansah the edge. Carradine & Mingo have the speed to chase QBs down, but in my humble opinion I think with Ziggy there can be an art to it b/c there's so much more to it with him than just speed. Firstly, the angles he takes are outstanding, as is his peripheral vision- including an uncanny ability to keep his feel clean and weave through traffic w/o losing sight of his target. That vision & athleticism pair extremely well together IMO. Secondly, not only is he quick twitch but he's decisive, balanced in his movement, makes sound decisions, and isn't easy to bait or catch out of position, hence making his twitchiness a major asset IMO. He doesn't fly around uncontrolled like Sergio Kindle or Mingo. There's precision to his speed. Thirdly, in addition to the above, he has great length & strength, so the amount of sacks/TFLS that are missed by a typical dlinemen attempting a diving foot-grab or arm tackle, Ziggy turns more of those into solid grab attempts at the knees and waist, and the arm tackles are more like a croc grabbing hold of a zebra where he might not have a big piece but the hold is so strong the target has little choice but to go down.... and even if Ansah's lower body gets juked, his athleticism, length, and hand coordination should allow him a firm latch by the hands more often than normal. For comparison, I'm smitten with Carradine, but watch Tank & Ziggy in overlapping fashion. The first thing that obviously pops out is Carradine is the better pure pass rusher from a traditional standpoint. I would've liked to have seen a wider variety of moves, but I think he's capable of developing them, so I'm not worried about it. The second thing that pops out <to me at least> is how in everything else, Ziggy is a fraction quicker or better than Carradine. On runs inside the tackles or just off tackle that Ziggy stops for either a loss or minimal gain, Carradine stops a yard or two further behind Ansah. On outside runs (sweeps or in backside pursuit) Ziggy consistently makes the play for a shorter gain. Ziggy's first to get his hands up when a QB starts his motion.In pursuit plays where Tank either gets himself out of position or attempts a lunging foot or arm tackle, Ansah gets to the ball carrier a smidge more quickly and squarely, which in the NFL could be the difference between a stop and a huge gain. When it comes to reaction ability Ziggy is a hair quicker, as is his redirect ability, both of which will play more to his advantage vs mobile QBs. You'll see Ansah doing a better job keeping his feet clean and maintaining balance on plays where Tank's feet get a tad disrupted or he goes to the ground. And.... I think there's something to be said about the type of end/pass rusher Ziggy is b/c, even though he might not apply as much pressure running the arc as Tank, he's more often positioned in the QB's face and passing lane able to quickly either get his hands up or maintain containment ala JPP style rather than a speed rush guy who, if ineffective on his rush, has left an open passing lane, is out of position to bat a ball, and is behind the QB allowing an athletic QB an easier shot to take off upfield unabated. For example, Wake this year at 4-3 end had only 1 pass defended.. With Cam already being the speed rush guy, I personally wouldn't want another speed rusher starting opposite him and frequently leaving only the tackles directly in front of the QB for containment. How many times did we see Wake pressure a QB only to watch him escape through Wake's vacated spot for a 1st down or decent gain? When you watch JPP, he gets a lot of his sacks & pressures from taking a direct approach to the QB and simply out-beasting his man, and it leaves QBs with less room for escapability from what I've seen. That's why I feel the the sum of Ziggy's parts are better. If he had Tank's first step and better flexibility turning the corner he'd be in the #1 pick consideration for me. The 3rd & 5 Kaepernick TD run with 2:19 to play and us trailing by a TD is still fresh in my mind. Vernon was caught in no man's land, where as Ziggy might've gotten us the ball back shy of the 2 minute warning. If Kaep's run were prevented and we had a playmaking WR capable of breaking Hartline's weak ankle tackle, we're looking at a 20-20 tie with us having the last shot in regulation to win it IMO. [video=youtube;xm4dDYsI96E]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm4dDYsI96E[/video]
<adding to the previous post>..... whereas, if you have Wake & Carradine on the outside in nickel and Ziggy at DT, the QB has less potential to step up and escape ..... so IMO you'd get the best of both worlds- 2 ends who can apply pressure around the corner and a contain guy in the middle who prevents all that vacated space from being such a liability to athletic QBs. Ziggy can either make the play or buy Cam & Tank enough time to get back into it. It's a 3 prong attack with an insurance policy. I'm quite fond of this idea, but if there's a hole in it or if it seems like overkill to anyone, I'm open for discussion or suggestions. Of course in base defense Ansah would be opposite Wake.
You didn't see Alex Okafor straight up beating offensive tackles and pressuring/sacking the quarterback? If not I don't know if you're looking hard enough. He did it plenty. Barkevious Mingo pressured the quarterback and his blocker plenty, he just didn't finish a lot, which is a problem.
Risk averse teams might shy away from Jarvis Jones with his stenosis. To me, he's a guy that might take a nice drop, although I don't think Ireland would then take him. I also think Mingo might slide a bit, but again I don't see Jeff going there. If I had to choose one player that might slide enough that the Dolphins would draft, I'm going to go with Milliner. Wouldn't totally shock me if Warmack might also be in play.
My Okafor notes, relevant to pass rush: - boy he gets upfield fast on the first two steps on the pass rush - slaps OL's hands away well when bending arc - seems to get too upright when he goes inside, loses leverage and can't generate inside power against Guards and Center. Does little inside. - does get push on RT's in pass pro. - Not a guy who will beat you by first dipping shoulder and bending outside edge, but instead needs to JOLT the tackle with body and hands contact first, THEN use that little space to separate and dip shoulder under and bend arc. Must use his strength WITH quickness to beat tackles. Not a pure speed guy who pressures that edge and scares good Tackles with outside rush. - What concerns me is, he barely gives RTs a lot to handle. I wonder what happens when I need to flip him to RDE on a passing down to let Wake rush over LDE. I want to know this guy can give tackles a problem o either side, and RT's simply aren't as good as most LTs in pass pro. I want to see Okafor against the best. Plus, as a strongside DE I expect him to be better against the run. This guy allows runs right past him consistently. Where is the awareness? Games Watched: 2012 - WVU, OSU, Oregon State
As with all things, I am open to re-examining Okafor, but I need other games to watch. I'll have a look once I have watched more Damontre Moore, who I think fooled me the first time (shame on him).
Has this changed at all after the combine? I could see Star falling, Damontre Moore falling, Banks for sure. Others?
No way he makes 12 after that combine. I mean, who was a top ten guy pre-combine who is now a threat to drop to 12?
This is why I'd take him if he slid. My idea is simple, you have to either attack in the passing game, or be attacked in the passing game, no good option for attacking in the passing game at #12, so go with guys who can attack the opponents passing attack. Suspect Star L will fall, GM's ***** to begin with, his heart condition will knock him down the board, not wild about taking a DT that high in the modern NFL, but Bowens had a hunk out of his foot and Shula still took him. Cb's, even Millner, just are not worth high resources in the league today, they play handcuffed, I can find a 4th rd Cb who can play handcuffed, he just has to be able to tackle well and have ball skills.
Maybe Jarvis Jones if teams didn't like his medical history (I personally don't care, he played just fine at UGA) or the fact he didn't participate. I'd take him at 12. I think he could phase out Koa Misi at OLB and at the very least, give Miami that 3rd down pass-rusher opposite Wake as a rookie right off the bat.
Jarvis Jones isn't a MLB. Dansby's been an effective blitzer when asked to do so. It may not always result in a sack, but he's been disruptive.
