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Were Bess & Hartline's Number of TDs an Issue?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Jan 19, 2013.

Did Tannehill struggle in any way that wasn't caused by anyone else in the world?

  1. No

    7 vote(s)
    25.9%

  2. Yes

    20 vote(s)
    74.1%
Page 7 of 10
  1. Jan 21, 2013 #241
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Your starting point with that line of reasoning is in believing Hartline is to blame for that lack of TD production when it could just as easily be the fault of Tannehill.

    If you were to flip that around, your statement might sound like this: "It's flat out ridiculous to think that if Tannehill could pass for a freaking TD we wouldn't have a better record."

    Who knows what's true? You? :confused1:
     
  2. Jan 21, 2013 #242
    Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    You know where I stand here, I disagreed with Shou's poll, but step outside of it for a bit.

    I propose to you that we DON'T know. Hartline wasn't the only WR on the field. We said the same thing about Marshall when he came and Henne wasn't able to throw TD's to him either.

    Wes Welker has become one of the most prolific WR's in NFL history and was a footnote here.


    The truth is, we don't know what Tannehill would have done with a different WR corps this year. I did notice a lot of overthrows when things were tight in the RZ, balls thrown 4-5 yards out of bounds or in places that neither the defender or WR had a chance to make a play.

    I do know this. If Tannehill works on his game and reads when things are tight in the RZ, he will throw for more TD's. If we had Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson on the field and Tanny still tightened up in the RZ, he wouldn't throw as many TD's as you would like to believe.
     
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  3. Jan 21, 2013 #243
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    He is to blame. I'm not pulling it out of my ***. I've given you all the evidence there is. Goddman this is why you're so effing infuriating.

    You have been given evidence and evidence and evidence and evidence and you act like you haven't. This is what makes you a troll and its high effing time the mods did something about it.
     
  4. Jan 21, 2013 #244
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Ah, so when someone disagrees with you, they need intervention from the authorities.

    What is this, a cult?
     
  5. Jan 21, 2013 #245
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    He is not Henne. Hartline is not Marshall nor Welker. What happened with those players has nothing to do with our current situation. We are talking about different players in different systems in different situations. The only common denominator is the logo and that is obviously not to blame.

    Hartline's rating is more or less the same whether he's being thrown to by Henne, Moore or Tannehill. he is an ok Wr nothing more and way less as a #1. It is undeniable by anyone.

    Yes, Tanny can improve. Yes Tanny can throw more yards, more TDs and less INTs. No one is arguing that. No one. Anywhere. All we are saying is that if Tanny did everything exactly the same but Hartline or Bess could house a pass or breakaway from a CB or even stay on their goddman feet this would have been a different season. We know that for absolute, incontrovertible fact.
     
  6. Jan 21, 2013 #246
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Piss off. That's far from what I said, and you know it, but keep proving the fact that you're a troll.
     
  7. Jan 21, 2013 #247
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You're putting far more stock in your "study" than it deserves IMO, and when other people put less stock in it than you, they're told they need attention from the mods or to piss off.

    It's probably time for you to stop arguing this point. All you're going to do is frustrate yourself. :)
     
  8. Jan 21, 2013 #248
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    [​IMG]
     
  9. Jan 21, 2013 #249
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No troll, you're not ignoring just my study, you're ignoring every bit of evidence given to you from everyone else telling you how stupid your stance is. You ignore all of it and in return haven't provided a single thing to back up your lies about the role of WR in all of this. That is why you're a troll. It is what trolls do. Just like how you keep misstating why I'm calling you a troll, troll.
     
  10. Jan 21, 2013 #250
    Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    FinD, we all know Tannehill was a work in progress. He wasn't even supposed to start this season.
     
  11. Jan 21, 2013 #251
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    What is someone called when he calls someone else a troll and violates the ToS? :headscratch: ;)
     
  12. Jan 21, 2013 #252
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    No use in telling him that. Fully equipped with superhuman omniscience, he has the inside track on reality, and the rest of us are just idiots (or "trolls") if we don't agree. ;)
     
  13. Jan 21, 2013 #253
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Yes, we do all know that. Again, no one but no one is arguing that.
     
  14. Jan 21, 2013 #254
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No just you.
     
  15. Jan 21, 2013 #255
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Ah, so the other people who don't agree aren't idiots or trolls.

    Sounds like you're in perfect position to have an unbiased discussion. :chuckle:
     
  16. Jan 21, 2013 #256
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The simple fact of the matter is we were discussing this just fine in another thread. Then when you knew you were wrong, you made a snarky question. Then waited a day, and made this thread with virtually the same snarky question. It was at that point, I stopped trying to be cordial, because you weren't. Then you didn't have the sack to admit you were being snarky. You've been beaten over and over by so many people, yet you cling to this lie and pretend you've been given no evidence.

    Sure, I and the others don't have to reply to you, but that won't stop you. The only thing that will stop you and your bull****, is enough people complaining about the same argument that keeps happening over and over. Then maybe the mods will intercede and keep you from trying to recreate Finheaven.
     
  17. Jan 21, 2013 #257
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    It's an outrage! :tantrum:

    If you can't control me, you'll get someone else to, eh? ;)
     
  18. Jan 21, 2013 #258
    Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    FinD and Shou, the two of you have been around way too long for this.

    Just agree to disagree or use the ignore feature. Two well regarded posters on this site should not have to go down that route.

    We wouldn't be here if we weren't passionate about the team. We have suffered long enough and don't need two site veterans going at each other.

    Like I said earlier in the season, if Tannehill explodes next season Shouright will gladly and unequivocally support him and admit where he was wrong.

    Now if Tannehill turns in to bust he better not gloat about it, because it will mean another long round of failure and rebuilding. For our collective sake, we better hope that a revamped offense will lead to greater success next year. But to assume that it will guarantee success is naive because of aforementioned reasons above.
     
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  19. Jan 21, 2013 #259
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Did a little research to take a look at this.

    I took all of the QBs since 2004 who, like Ryan Tannehill, started at least 15 games as rookies.

    I charted the number of TD passes caught that season by their two starting receivers.

    Here are the data:

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 516"]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    QB​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Rookie Starts​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    Passing TDs​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    QB Rating​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 93, bgcolor: transparent"]
    Starting Receiver​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 52, bgcolor: transparent"]
    TDs​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 86, bgcolor: transparent"]
    Starting Receiver​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 48, bgcolor: transparent"]
    TDs​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 100, bgcolor: transparent"]
    %age of TDs to Starting WRs​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Tannehill​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    15​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    12​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    76.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Hartline​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Bess​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    16.7​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Luck​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    23​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    76.5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Wayne​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Avery​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    34.8​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Wilson​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    26​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    100​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Rice​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Tate​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    53.8​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    RGIII​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    15​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    20​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    102.4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Garcon​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Morgan​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    2​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    30.0​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Weeden​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    15​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    14​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    72.6​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Little​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Gordon​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    64.3​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Newton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    21​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    84.5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Smith​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Naanee​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    38.1​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Dalton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    20​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    80.4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Green​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Simpson​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    55.0​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Bradford​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    18​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    76.5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Robinson​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    2​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Gibson​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    2​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    22.2​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Ryan​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    87.7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    White​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Jenkins​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    62.5​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Flacco​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    16​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    14​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    80.3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Clayton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Mason​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    57.1​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Sanchez​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    15​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    12​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    63​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Cotchery​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Edwards​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    58.3​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Orton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    15​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 72, bgcolor: white"]
    9​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 58, bgcolor: white"]
    59.7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Muhammad​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Gage​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    2​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    66.7​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    What you can see here is that Hartline and Bess caught far less a percentage of Ryan Tannehill's TD passes (16.7%) than almost any other pair of receivers in the sample caught from their quarterback. The next closest was Sam Bradford's pair, at 22.2%.

    The average percentage of these rookies' TD passes that were caught by their starting receivers was 46.6% (nearly half). The standard deviation in the sample is 17.4%. Hartline and Bess are 1.73 standard deviations below the mean, placing them in the 4th percentile.

    In other words, if this sample were representative of the population, for every 100 receiver pairs you went out and found at random, on average, 96 of those 100 pairs would've caught a higher percentage of TDs from their rookie QBs than did Bess and Hartline.

    The finding in that regard is what many people have pointed out, that Hartline and Bess came up short in terms of being TD targets for Ryan Tannehill this year.

    However, here is the more interesting information in my opinion:

    The correlation between QB rating and total TDs thrown by the QBs in this sample is 0.73. In other words, the more TDs these quarterbacks threw, the higher their QB rating. This stands to reason, since TD passes are a component of QB rating.

    Here's where it gets real interesting:

    The correlation between QB rating and the percentage of TD passes caught by the starting wide receivers is -0.26 (yes that's negative 0.26).

    In other words, the higher the percentage of TD passes these QBs threw to their starting wide receivers, the lower their QB rating.

    To determine whether that negative correlation between QB rating and percentage of TDs caught by the starting WRs is a function of total number of TDs thrown, I ran a partial correlation, partialling out (i.e., controlling for statistically, or holding constant) the variance in the correlation between QB rating and starting WRs' TDs associated with total TDs thrown.

    That partial correlation was -0.09, signifying virtually no relationship whatsoever. In other words, when you hold total number of TDs constant, the relationship between QB rating and the percentage of TDs caught by the starting WRs is nil. Said differently, throwing TDs to one's starting receivers does not increase a quarterback's rookie QB rating, even when a quarterback throws a greater number of TDs overall.

    Likewise, when you control for the percentage of TD passes caught by the starting WRs, the correlation between total TDs thrown and QB rating drops only from 0.73 to 0.71. In other words, throwing TDs, in general, increases a rookie's QB rating, irrespective of whether those TDs are thrown to the starting receivers.

    What this suggests is that the percentage of TD passes thrown to the starting WRs may actually mean a whole lot less than many people seem to believe, and it's quite possible it may even be detrimental to rookie QBs, in terms of their QB ratings. :up:

    EDIT: BTW, the correlation between WPA and percentage of passes thrown to starting WRs is even more strongly inverse:

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 255"]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    QB​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: transparent"]
    %age of TDs to Starting WRs​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: transparent"]
    WPA​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Tannehill​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    16.7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    1.36​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Luck​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    34.8​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    4.5​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Wilson​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    53.8​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    3.03​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    RGIII​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    30.0​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    3.1​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Weeden​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    64.3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    -0.47​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Newton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    38.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    2.05​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Dalton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    55.0​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    -0.13​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Bradford​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    22.2​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    0.09​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Ryan​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    62.5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    3.75​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Flacco​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    57.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    -0.13​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Sanchez​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    58.3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    -1.02​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    Orton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    66.7​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 113, bgcolor: white"]
    -2.66​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    That correlation is -0.38.
     
  20. Jan 21, 2013 #260
    Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Your first correlation is pretty weak, so not going to read the rest tonight
     
  21. Jan 21, 2013 #261
    CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    My sample size is 12. I am the statistics god.
     
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  22. Jan 21, 2013 #262
    CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Correct. I don't know many people who base a whole lot on a sample size of 12 that has yielded a cc of .73.
     
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  23. Jan 21, 2013 #263
    invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Interesting post. Shou, can you post the rookies' interception count as well? Also, didn't Tannehill start 16 games?
     
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  24. Jan 21, 2013 #264
    Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    congrats on another shaky thread with questionable data
     
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  25. Jan 21, 2013 #265
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    He started 16, but I've removed the Jets game away from this compilation because he played so little of it. Here's what you wanted:

    [TABLE="width: 167"]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl63, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]QB
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl64, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]Rookie Starts
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl64, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]Attempts Per INT
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Tannehill
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]36.85
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Luck
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]34.83
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Wilson
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]39.3
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]RGIII
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]78.6
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Weeden
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]30.41
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Newton
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]30.41
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Dalton
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]39.69
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Bradford
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]39.33
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Palmer
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]24
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Roethlisberger
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]26.82
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Ryan
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]39.45
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Flacco
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]35.67
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Ponder
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]22.38
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Stafford
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]18.85
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Gabbert
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]14
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]37.55
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Sanchez
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]18.2
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Young
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]27.46
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Leinart
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]31.42
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Freeman
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]29
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Gradkowski
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]36.44
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Orton
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]28.31
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Edwards
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]33.63
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Clausen
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]33.22
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Walter
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]8
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]21.23
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]Smith
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]15
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 94, bgcolor: white"]EManning
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: white"]21.89
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
     
  26. Jan 21, 2013 #266
    GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Shou u are a beast with the statistics, but you don't know sheeeit about football.
     
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  27. Jan 21, 2013 #267
    Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Here is the short version.


    Hartline 1 Td

    Bess 1 Td


    Sigh...
     
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  28. Jan 21, 2013 #268
    RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Cincinnati, Ohio
    I'd just add, for reference, ALL of Miami's receivers caught a grand total of 3 TD passes this year. Bess, Hartline, and Marlon Moore each had 1.

    Keeping that in perspective, I think it bespeaks of the total talent level Miami operated with throughout the year. And still managed to win 7 games and could have (and should have) won at least 2 more - Jets and Cardinals, and were one score away from winning - Indianapolis and Buffalo.

    The rest of Miami's receiving TDs break down as follows:

    Anthony Fasano - 5
    Charles Clay - 2
    Reggie Bush - 2
    Jorvorskie Lane - 1

    Miami also had 8 players catch a pass that recorded no touchdowns. Number of catches in parentheses:

    Daniel Thomas (15)
    Rishard Matthews (11)
    Armon Binns (6)
    Lamar Miller (6)
    Jabar Gaffney (4)
    Anthony Armstrong (3)
    Legedu Naanee (1)
    Marcus Thigpen (1)

    You also had 2 other players, TEs Jeron Mastrud and Michael Egnew out there running routes that didn't record a catch in any action they saw.

    With the lack of continuity in receivers 3-5/6 throughout the season, it's not surprising, to me at least, that no other receivers, other than Marlon Moore in blow coverage, caught a TD pass. They either weren't on the roster long enough, or were brought in too late in the season to really build on-field trust.

    I'd be pretty interested to see the grand total of how many different receivers were cycled through each rookie QBs season. I doubt the information is all that readily available. For example, if you pull up Miami's team stats page on NFL.com, Anthony Armstrong isn't listed. But he is listed on ESPN's stats page. If someone took the time to cobble those totals together; I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a rookie quarterback who had to play with as many different receivers, in total, as Ryan Tannehill played with.

    Regardless of what Ryan Tannehill's rookie QB Rating was, Miami NEEDS more talent on the offense at just about every position; receiver especially.

    *Edit* just something of historical significance that may only interest me. Take away Reggie Bush, the team leader with 8 total TDs (6 rushing, 2 receiving) and Miami's skill position players racked up a grand total of 18 TDs; 20 if you count Ryan Tannehill's rushing TDs.

    There are 4 individual receivers who have scored at least 18 TDs in a SINGLE season in NFL history:

    Randy Moss - 23 with New England in 2007
    Jerry Rice - 22 with the 49ers in 1987
    Mark Clayton - 18 in 1984
    Sterling Sharpe - 18 with the Packers in 1994.

    To me, that's a scary prospective. If Reggie Bush walks away in free agency, a real possibility, Miami's left with a slew of guys who scored 18 TDs. Take away Anthony Fasano's 5 TDs if he leaves in free agency, you're down to 13. Marlon Moore's a restricted free agent, take away his TD, and you're down to 12 TDs. That's not a pretty picture, especially for a 2nd year QB.
     
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  29. Jan 21, 2013 #269
    Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    Not like Bess and Hartline have been TD producers no matter who is throwing the ball. It's an indictment of themselves.
     
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  30. Jan 21, 2013 #270
    DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They were an issue, but not in the sense most would say. I've given many reasons why before. So in short, a lot of what TD production for RBs and WRs is comes from opportunity. From year to year, the number of rushes/passes given to a player in the red zone fluctuates. Since it's really difficult to score from outside the red zone, the fewer opportunities you get the few TDs you'll get. Given more opportunities, both Bess and Hartline's TDs should go up.
     
  31. Jan 21, 2013 #271
    Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Jul 5, 2009
    Before Tannehill, they had Henne. Bess did play one season with Pennington. I think it's more of an indictment on QB play than themselves.
     
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  32. Jan 21, 2013 #272
    Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Miami, Florida, United States
    I'm sure plenty of their clutch receptions turned into Td's by others. They both have a decent knack for making clutch catches. But Hartline, in particular, seemed to stumble over his own feet with nothing but green grass in front of him. Then there was that time the defender raised his arms and yelled BOO and he fell....jk on that last one of course.
     
  33. Jan 21, 2013 #273
    Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    Maybe it's a little bit of both. But our WRs are far from victims.
     
  34. Jan 21, 2013 #274
    sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    33,925
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    Shou, you know I'm not a big fan of statistics and metrics in determining player success and this one really seems to drive my point home pretty hard. Do you actually believe that the more TDs a quarterback throws to his starting WRs the worse his overall success is? That's extremely out there and I would bet you couldn't get a single coach or GM in America to put any value in that assessment.

    I just don't get the need to do these "in-depth" statistical analyses to try and prove the same point time and time again, when conventional wisdom, visual analysis, and common football sense proves otherwise. While I didn't believe it before, I'm starting to wonder if you're just trying to push people's buttons or if this just isn't some kind of psychological experiment.
     
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  35. Jan 21, 2013 #275
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

    4,841
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    Feb 1, 2012
    This is going to be a long offseason...
     
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  36. Jan 21, 2013 #276
    MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,658
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    Nov 13, 2009
    I'm convinced.
     
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  37. Jan 21, 2013 #277
    PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    Jan 5, 2010
    the next dimension
    It's the weather forecast again, :pity:
     
  38. Jan 21, 2013 #278
    AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Bess had 5 and 3 TD catches respectively the previous two seasons on 130 receptions (1 TD every 16.25 receptions) . This year 1 TD catch on 61 receptions. At 27 years of age entering his 5th season and having Henne and Moore previously throw to him I would think decent QB play would have helped those TD catches to grow, not shrink it to nearly nothing.

    And Hartline had 5 TD catches on 109 receptions (1 TD every 21.8 receptions) over his career heading into his 4th year and being 26 years of age. This year, 1 TD catch on 74 receptions.

    Gotta feel bad for Hartline and Bess in their careers so far given the quality of QBs they have had to play with. Hope it gets better for them. They deserve it. They have both been solid players and professionals wearing the Dolphin uniform.
     
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  39. Jan 21, 2013 #279
    shula_guy

    shula_guy Well-Known Member

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    where ever there is a pat range withing squirting
    According to the OP, Hartlines decrease in TDs is an indication that we have improved at the QB postion.
     
  40. Jan 21, 2013 #280
    CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    We've clearly seen instances this season where Hartline's own physical limitations have killed TD opportunities. Another factor we can correlate to their lack of success is their roles as the top receivers. Both have now seen their competition increase in skill as they face top corners. Previously, they faced less stringent coverage by nature of their position on the depth cart. There are so many factors that you're intentionally leaving out.
     
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