I guess that means you're a bigger fan now than you were when you said this? Maybe BPK isn't where your appreciation has ended up of Patterson. I understand that, because I'm not there either. He scares me. I don't even have a rational reason why. I guess I look at him and think, "would Philbin want this guy?", and I don't know.
How do you calculate Productivity Score? You may have already posted it. If so, sorry that I missed it.
Those two quotes don't contradict at all. A bigger contraction would be me saying "That too" in response to KB21's point about how you wouldn't want to develop a Cordarrelle Patterson by completely sealing off what he's good at (returns, runs), and then the second of the two quotes from me you quoted. However, the reason I don't believe there's actually a contradiction there is simply because there's a difference (which I often try and make clear) between what I believe the Dolphins will do and what I would do.
To be clear, the Dolphins have a return guy they like. I like him too. That puts a little bit of a dent in Patterson's value as a return man (in the short run). But it doesn't rule out his being used as a return man right away, nor his having an impact as a return man. There is such thing as competition. However, my point about compartmentalization is that the same skills that led to his high productivity on kick returns, punt returns and runs, also bleed into what he is as a wide receiver. It's the evaluator's job to figure out how those things bleed together (if at all), thereby getting your arms wrapped around what his true potential is as a wide receiver. So when someone says that a guy in only his first year in the SEC off JUCO transfer, shouldn't have his return and run production figured into his potential as a wide receiver, I disagree with that pretty strongly whether you're going to have him return kicks and punts or take wide receiver reverses or not.
I didn't mean to say what you said was a contradiction, more to point out your earlier quote is very similar to the post BPK made that you strongly disagreed with and thinking maybe your views became stronger in favor of Patterson since you had made that original comment.
Productivity score = % receiving yards + % receiving touchdowns of the entire offense. It is a way of taking the raw volume data and putting it into the context of the entire offense.
Spot on. He may not be a finished product, but IMO there's special ability there that doesn't come along every draft.
To me, Patterson's return skills are nice but secondary. Thigpen's a fine returner and can do the job well. What I see with Cordarrelle is the potential for some terrific YAC in Philbin's offense, in addition to the speed and ability necessary to loosen a defense. Perhaps you see him in some backfield sets. Perhaps Philbin could see Patterson as a bigger, stronger, faster Randell Cobb, who was drafted while Joe was still in Green Bay. IMO, if you picked up a guy like Jennings in free agency and re-signed Hartline, you could bring Cordarrelle along initially as your 4th receiver. He might not wind up quite as productive early on as some other receivers that get taken in the draft, but I think he'd give added value in the way defenses would have to defend packages he was included in, especially if Philbin and Sherman find creative ways to get the ball in his hands.
I think my concern with Heyward-Bey coming out of college was that he never really improved. He was basically the same player when he was a freshman as when he came out. Now, I realize we dont have more than one year to look at for Patterson but damn that guy is quick. Turns on a dime and gets to top end speed quickly. Frankly, I am not sure why he is not getting more pub.
I think Patterson was a significantly better receiver in the 2nd half of the year than the 1st half of the year. He went from missed opportunities vertically against Florida and Georgia to schooling Robert Lester making good on an opportunity vertically against Alabama, hard to say anything about South Carolina as I felt the QB's inaccuracy was the biggest problem, and then going all H.A.M. on Troy. I also felt he had great offensive showings against Mizzou, Vandy and Kentucky. In those last 4 games it wasn't mostly a special teams story anymore. He was doing things as a receiver. Keep in mind that Cam Newton was also a first year JUCO transfer and it really took him a while to get going to where you start looking at him and realizing what a good quarterback he could be at the next level. But Cam kept getting opportunities directly from the coaches who put the ball in his hands constantly. Patterson was on a team with Tyler Bray who over-relied on the guy he already had chemistry with, Justin Hunter.
Stevie Johnson was a JUCO transfer WR, his junior season he tallied 12 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD. However, he blew it up his senior season with 60 catches /1041 yards /13 TDs
Devin Thomas spent his first 2 years at JUCO (redshirted the first), did nothing as a sophomore at Mich St, and then had 79 catches, 1260 yards, and 8 TDs.... plus another 1135 yards on KO returns (29.1 avg, 2 yards more than Patterson). At the combine he checked in at 6'2 215 and ran a 4.40 with a 1.47 10 yard split. So there's that side of it, too.
Yeah but I don't know if what they did as pros is really relevant. I mean we're not sitting here saying that Cordarrelle Patterson is going to be a successful pro because he's a JUCO transfer. The argument here is whether it's fair to judge his production in 2012 against everyone else's in the Draft on an apples-to-apples basis, considering he was a first year JUCO transfer stepping onto a team in the SEC that already had an established QB-WR combo.
Chad Johnson, Isaac Bruce, and Steve Smith all went to JUCO at Santa Monica College. TJ Houshmandzadeh went to Cerritos College.
FWIW I've been told by someone who was on LA Tech staff that Patton is a great competitor and was a leader in locker room from day one. You can see the competitive spirit on the field after plays.
I dont think his previous JUCO status should mean a hill of beans unless it pertains specifically to the reason why a player has to go the JUCO route in the first place. I was just pointing out Devin Thomas as a talented player with one year of D1 success who busted in the NFL. Granted, I believe Thomas has stiffer hips/less agility.
I decided to put the numbers to the test. Cordarrelle Patterson: August/September -- 5 games, 21 receptions, 290 yards, 2 TDs, 4.2 receptions per game, 58.0 yards per game October -- 3 games, 6 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD, 2.0 receptions per game, 25.3 yards per game November -- 4 games, 19 receptions, 412 yards, 2 TD, 4.8 receptions per game, 103.0 yards per game So, it is obvious that his numbers did improve over the final four games of the season for Tennessee. Let's take a look at those numbers within the context of the entire offense to see if he was a dominant receiver over the final four games. Tennessee, over the final four games, had 1,409 yards passing and 14 passing touchdowns. So, Cordarrelle accounted for 29% of the receiving yards for Tennessee over the final four games of the season, and he accounted for 14% of the passing touchdowns. So, while he still wasn't a dominant receiver, he did show an upward trend. It does make me wonder what his numbers would have been had he returned for his senior season and been the main guy in the passing offense.
Do you have a web site that lists the PS for the various players, or are you calculating it yourself? It makes sense, and I'd like to explore it more if there is a web site that has the data already completed.
Going back to the JUCO thing and realistic expectations for how JUCO players should produce in the first year coming out of JUCO, here are some more players for you. Not all of them are successful pros. They don't have to be. The point with Cordarrelle Patterson is not that he's going to be a successful pro because he's a JUCO transfer. The point with Cordarrelle Patterson is that he produced 778 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, which in SOME years would come shockingly close to leading the entire SEC in pure receiver catching production, and this should be considered pretty good for it being his first year off a JUCO transfer. But here are some stats on production of JUCO players from their 1st year on their new team, to the 2nd year: Isaac Bruce: 43-562-5, 74-1054-10 Chad Johnson: 33-713-6, (no 2nd year off JUCO) Keyshawn Johnson: 58-1140-6, 90-1218-6 Steve L. Smith: 35-743-4, (no 2nd year off JUCO) T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 24-378-2, 42-656-6 Stevie Johnson: 12-159-1, 60-1041-13 Kevin Curtis: 100-1531-10, 74-1258-9 Deion Branch: 71-1016-9, 72-1188-9 Devin Thomas: 6-90-1, 79-1260-8 Robert Ferguson: 58-885-6, (no 2nd year off JUCO) Quincy Morgan: 41-1007-9, 64-1166-14 Javon Walker: 20-313-3, 45-944-7 The list above are all guys I could find that actually either did something in the NFL, or ended up taken in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft or better. They averaged 42 catches, 711 yards and 5 touchdowns receiving the football as first year JUCO transfers. Coincidentally (or not), Cordarrelle Patterson had 46 catches for 778 yards and 5 touchdowns as a first year JUCO transfer.
The website where they came out with the idea is http://www.thecfx.com The website where I get the data that I use is http://www.cfbstats.com
I still remember Chad Johnson just blowing up the Senior Bowl, with some talk that he could be a top 5 pick. then the teams talked themselves out of that evaluation and he was a steal in the 2nd for Cincy. That was a case of the first impression being the right one.
FWIW I have 10.1 yards per attempt on passes thrown toward Cordarrelle Patterson versus 8.5 yards per attempt for Justin Hunter. Patterson's average actually goes up if you account for his runs and throw, to 10.8 yards every time his number was called.
Patterson just jumps off the screen and provides that instant wow factor more so than the pass rushers that could be available at 12. That wow factor is what the Dolphins as a team didn't have.
totally agree, I cant recall the last time the Fins had a receiver that has his ability after the catch.
Let me make a case right now for either Cordarrelle Patterson OR Keenan Allen...based on certain conditions. Let's say that as the process plays out, Combine, Pro Days, etc...it becomes obvious that one or both of these guys is just a cut above the rest of the pack. Let's say Cordarrelle Patterson blows up the Combine, runs crisp routes at his private workouts, impresses you on the whiteboard, etc...and by the end of this thing you're thinking yeah there's a lot of talented receivers in this Draft but this guy is really kind of a cut above the rest. If that is the case, you should probably take him at 12 overall rather than waiting for the cluster. Note: This is not in any way a statistical or scientific study. I was alive for these drafts, I studied them very intently, I remember them very well, and that's what I'm going off. I look back at drafts going back 10 years...all the way to 2003. It seems like in most of these drafts, there are some guys at that wide receiver position that really stand out talent-wise, that in a very general consensus way...are kind of better than the next cluster of guys. I start with 2003 when Andre Johnson and Charles Rogers were very much considered well above the next group of guys. Bryant Johnson was taken abnormally high but I thought he was very much mired in that next group which included he, Taylor Jacobs, Bethel Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Tyrone Calico, Kelley Washington, Nate Burleson and Kevin Curtis. Moving to 2004, even though Roy and Reggie Williams were taken nearly as high, I thought it was pretty obvious to everyone that Larry Fitzgerald was head and shoulders above them as a prospect. I thought Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods and Devery Henderson as all part of that next group of guys. But Larry was separate. In 2005, I really thought the same was true of Braylon Edwards. I thought he was pretty uncontested from a talent standpoint whereas with Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White, Reggie Brown and Mark Bradley...you're looking at more of a cluster there. Go to 2006 and I remember very well that Chad Jackson and Santonio Holmes were much argued about whether one was better than the other, but pretty much everyone accepted that they were a cut above the next group of guys like Sinorice Moss, Greg Jennings and Devin Hester. Now, I personally did not agree with placing Chad Jackson in that top cut of beef, but to be fair it was generally a consensus, whether I agreed with it or not. And in 2007 obviously Calvin Johnson was a cut above everyone else. Ted Ginn was taken in the top 10 only 7 spaces behind Johnson but a lot of projections had him going as low as the mid-20's and I thought it commonly accepted he was part of a cluster of guys that ended up including he, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith (USC). The unique thing about 2008 was that there was NO guy or group of guys that stood above everyone. It was all choose your own adventure. Appropriately, none went in the 1st round...but an amazing 10 went in the 2nd round. Those 10 were Donnie Avery, Devin Thomas, Jordy Nelson, James Hardy, Eddie Royal, Jerome Simpson, DeSean Jackson, Malcolm Kelly, Limas Sweed and Dexter Jackson. Now in 2009 this is where memory serves better than simply looking at draft position because I remember that most considered it part of Al Davis' late-life insanity that he took Darrius Heyward-Bey at #7 overall. Most considered Michael Crabtree a full cut above the crowd, and Heyward-Bey was part of a group that included he, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Brian Robiskie. Similarly in 2010 it was generally accepted that from a talent perspective Dez Bryant was really a cut above the crowd. He ended up going 24 overall, 2 spaces below Demaryius Thomas, but I think most people considered that to be due to Bryant's emotional issues. Demaryius was more in the small cluster between he, Golden Tate and Rejus Benn. Then of course in 2011 you had a pretty clear cut duo of A.J. Green and Julio Jones jockeying for position with one another, above the rest of the crowd. Jonathan Baldwin was part of the next group, though he ended up in the 1st round anyway. But I think the group pretty reliably included Baldwin, Titus Young, Randall Cobb, Greg Little and Torrey Smith. Now you get to 2012 and I thought you really had a two-man top tier at Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd. And I think the NFL generally thought that way as well, from a talent perspective. There was some discomfort with Floyd's attitude and character history, of course. But, the next group was reliably set at Kendall Wright, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery and Ryan Broyles. I guess you can put A.J. Jenkins in there. Personally I'm not sure how in the world he went that high. Here's what I'm getting at with all this. Between Andre Johnson, Charles Rogers, Larry Fitzgerald, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd...I think you'd probably only be unhappy with maybe 4 of those players...and that's including Braylon Edwards who is kind of enigmatic. It also includes (quite ridiculously) Michael Floyd, even though he hasn't had near enough time to show what he has to offer. But if you're looking at the next cut of beef, you've got Bryant Johnson, Taylor Jacobs, Bethel Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Tyrone Calico, Kelley Washington, Nate Burleson, Kevin Curtis, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, Devery Henderson, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White, Reggie Brown, Mark Bradley, Sinorice Moss, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith (USC), Donnie Avery, Devin Thomas, Jordy Nelson, James Hardy, Eddie Royal, Jerome Simpson, DeSean Jackson, Malcolm Kelly, Limas Sweed, Dexter Jackson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Brian Robiskie, Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate, Rejus Benn, Jonathan Baldwin, Titus Young, Randall Cobb, Greg Little, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, A.J. Jenkins, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery and Ryan Broyles... ...you're looking at a SWARM of 1st, 2nd to top-3rd round picks that were in those 2nd/3rd tiers, that for the most part I think you'd be pretty unhappy with today. Obviously you'd be happy with Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, Sidney Rice, Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb and Torrey Smith. I think you could make a case for Devin Hester, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Golden Tate and Kendall Wright. But that's 18 out of 63 guys...basically a 1 in 4 chance. Right now, we're hearing a lot about how this WR class is a little bit headless. I'm not sure if that's actually true. We're in January. You hear a lot of things in January that don't play out in April. With Cordarrelle Patterson especially, you're looking at a guy that took the NCAA football scene by storm in only one year. It can take the market some time. This time two years ago we were talking about Cam Newton at the #15 overall pick, for example. But all I'm saying is that IF Patterson does end up clarifying as being the consensus best guy in this class, after the market starts to settle in on him a little better and we start seeing Combine and Pro Day performances, etc...you could certainly make a case for Miami going ahead and taking him at #12 overall rather than trying to wait for the swarm and taking their chances. There's basically only a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right at that next stop down the chain, and given this front office's history I doubt you could make any kind of case whatsoever that they would have an above-average chance of getting it right compared with everyone else.
I think that your second paragraph is key. If he does all that then yeah, I'd feel a lot better about taking him at #12. Given the crap shoot nature of the position, our dire need there, the uncertainty as to Hartline and his likely high contract demands and the number of good WR prospects in the draft, I still wouldn't mind taking 3 of them if value presents itself. Chances are at best 2 stick, we hopefully get a good one in FA and then Tannehill can develop further with some good weapons. But- given our need for CBs, pass rushers and maybe another OT if J Long bolts and Martin goes to LT- or we draft a guy like Fisher as an LT- this #12 slot is going to be interesting. I'm still very curious about this Menelik Watson character, and only time will tell how Jonathan Martin is going to pan out, because his year 1 performance was questionable.
The flip side to this argument is that if Cordarrelle Patterson does NOT do all of that and solidify himself as being a cut above the rest of the class, then what you really need to focus on doing is taking two receivers in the 2nd & 3rd rounds. If you just take one, you're rolling a pair of dice and hoping for a 7 or 11. Those are almost literally your odds, the literal definition of "crap shoot". At least if you take two of those guys you're making it closer to 50/50 that you've actually got a man worth his salt. And I would account it no sin if you ended up with two guys worth a lot.
Yeah, at least 2. Great year with draft, FA and cap money to bury this WR issue. From what I've seen the best value and maybe the best bet is Quinton Patton. I just don't see much not to like with this guy, it's hard for me to see him not making it at the next level. I'd say the same about Da'Rick Rogers, except for the ton of baggage.
