I have been wavering about whether I want him to be a Miami Dolphin for quite a few weeks. Actually since about week 2 of the preseason when it was apparent we had no deep threats and no one who really created plays in the passing game. Then I watched him as the season wore on and as issues started popping up I began to waver on my opinion that we should sign him. So looking at this objectively, and trying to forget just how much we need receivers (and believe me, Im aware we need receivers), let's see what caused Jennings to fall off the last 2 years and what issues he could have going forward. Before we progress there's 2 articles you should read...well really 1 snippet and 1 article: This is actually the only piece of article one that pertains to Jennings from todays National Football Post..there's some other stuff in the article too pertaining to the draft: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-5912.html Article 2 from the PBP has some definite flaws such as calling Jennings "old" and Bowe "In his prime" when theres a 1 year difference. But it makes a lot of good points as well as the writer compares the big 3 free agent WR's: http://bleacherreport.com/tb/d9s7F?...medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=miami-dolphins Let's start with what I like about Jennings: 1. By all accounts the guy is a high character player who other players respect. Always a good thing to have in the locker room. His sister's tweeting be dammed, he's a good guy based on everything I have read and has never had any kind of trouble. 2. He came up with Aaron Rodgers so he knows how to deal with a young QB and young QB mistakes. Of course Rodgers was a 4th year player when he first started but Jennings was still a young pup as well. If anyone will know how to deal with an inexperienced QB he and Bowe are better suited then Wallace who has had the luxury of playing with Roethlisberger. 3. He was an elite deep threat who can make plays catching the ball downfield as well as turning short catches in to bigger gains. At his best he can require double coverage and make life easier for everyone else around him. 4. Familiarity with Joe Philbin's offense. This is pretty self explanatory since he played in the offense for a few years. Its a pretty good case for signing Greg Jennings but IMO there is a significant downside to it as well. 1. For starters, he's going from playing with Aaron Rodgers, a top 3 QB by anyone's account, to playing with Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill IMO can be a very good QB and in fact showed more then just flashes of doing so last year but how will a player who will be in his age 30 season react when there are some growing pains? As I mentioned Jennings is a high character player but you never know how players react in the heat of the game when there's a crucial mistake made. 2. The last time he really played like an elite deep threat was probably early 2011; maybe even 2010. Both years he had 5 20+ yard TD grabs. From 2010 when he averaged 16.6 YPC to 2011 his YPC dropped by over 2 yards. Maybe this correlates to my next point, or maybe not but for a player who will be 30 a few weeks in to the season its a valid concern. 3. Hes had leg injuries the last 2 years that hampered him. This year it was his groin, in addition to his abdomen/hernia and last year it was the knee and groin as you can see in the link below. How much of this can be attributed to his declining stats? Is two straight injury plagued years 1 too many for Jeff Ireland to want to commit a big contract to him? Would you commit a big contract to a player who was very good but whose statistical decline may or may not be influenced by his injuries? http://www.kffl.com/player/13933/nfl/injury_history/greg-jennings 4. A lot of GM's dont like to sign receivers on their 3rd contracts. Usually this is when receivers start to fall off and one of the reasons I like Wallace over either Bowe or Jennings. Sure hes only 29 now (30 on 9/21) but as we have seen over the years players can't always change their games to suit a different skillset. Many times they are rooted in the way they play. Only the great ones really continue to evolve. Just a thought, and something you dont have to worry about with Wallace or Bowe as much because of Wallace's youth and Bowe strictly being a guy who works intermediate routes. 5. Contract demands. Of course every free agent wants to get paid. NFL careers are short and they take a toll on your quality of life and every player has a short window to get what he can for himself and his family. How much of Jennings contract will be deserved? How much will be based on name recognition? What will his demands be? Is his sister going to push him to the highest bid like one would think from her tweets or does he have a team/coach in mind that he wants to play for? Will Ireland meet him on his demands since whether you like him or not there no real denying that Ireland doesnt usually go for the biggest fish in the free agent pond? Personally, I feel we need 3 new additions at WR, but a minimum of 2 would suffice. I don't think Jennings, Bowe or Wallace individually makes us a threat to NE and that we need picks and additional FA signings. I, quite frankly, want two from the above group but Im not sure how likely that is. Still I think Ireland knows its an area we have to address. My first choice has always been Wallace because of his age, skill set, and fit for the system. Given our situation any of the three would be nice but I am starting to really think twice about Jennings for all the reasons I mentioned. I think with him, we may end up getting a good year, maybe two and be back in the same spot again looking for a #1 WR type. Your thoughts?
Good post, highlights the pros and cons of Jennings very clearly. From what I've highlighted above, I agree that none of the FA's are going to "fix" our WR issues alone and we shouldn't expect them to. Ideally I'd like both Jennings and Wallace too, but just can't see any way that happens. There's arguments for all 3 of the FA's, and I find it hard to really put one ahead of the others too much, or write off one when compared against the others too much either. Taking that into account, I'm of the opinion that one of them is a minimum requirement, but it probably won't matter too much which one. As long as we also draft someone in the first 2 rounds, draft someone later...and re-sign Hartline. Do that and I'll be optimistic for next season.
I don't think a case can be made against Greg Jennings. In terms of skill and system fit, he's exactly what we're looking for. At minimum, signing him makes letting Hartline walk a much easier decision. There's a case to be made that he might not be as prolific as Bowe or as explosive as Wallace, but that doesn't necessarily mean much.
I've debated the same question in my head as well. But I had a another plus for Jennings (which is also a negative for Wallace). Jennings is a more complete WR. He runs the full route tree while Wallace really doesn't. I also don't see the ability to work with RT as that big of a deal. Over the last 6 games of the season (after he had the leg brace removed and was presumably closer to healthy) RT was an 85 rated QB. I think that's a more accurate representation of where he's at now in terms of development. The main thing is that I see Jennings as more likely to have us on his list and be wanted by Philbin. I also expect there to be less competition for Jennings and therefore a lower contract.
He's a huge upgrade over anyone we have but at 29 years old I wonder how he will perform over the life if a 5 year contract, which is probably what he'll be asking for. Bowe is a better option IMO.
never been a fan of Bowe. Would rather just get WR's through the draft if he is the only other option.
IMO Bowe has lesser hands than the other two. He relies more on his size as he's also a lesser route runner than Jennings. Bowe is still an upgrade, but he's my third choice.
I am for going after Jennings with the understanding that the Fins would have to draft at least two other WRs and a TE. The Fins really need to replace their top 3 WRs (that include Hartline and Bess). And I am a huge Bess supporter… but he is just not a play makers
yes, but he's running them from 3 different positions that all have their own uniqueness, no, including beating the press at split end, catching over left shoulder, catching over right shoulder, understanding the nuances of playing the slot, etc.
Getting 2 of those guy's is not ever going to happen. Hope Jennings can be signed for at most 5 or 6 million/year if not I doubt we get even him. Ireland's not coughing up 10/year million for any of these receivers IMO. There's better options in the draft and there much cheaper.
I dont think that the Fins are going to the Super Bowl after next season regardless, but for them to take the next step and become a serious playoff contender, a #1 reciever has to be acquired, and Jennings is my choice, for many of the reasons listed. Add to him a veteran pass catching TE and a rookie WR in round two, and you have immediate improvement. Add to that the rest of the 2013 draft class, and the team should then be poised to make a real move in 2014 if things go well.
IMO, Wallace is effective on enough routes though that he'd make the best compliment to Bess, and Hartline if he's resigned. He is also younger, healthier, and much faster. Though on the flip side, also likely much more expensive. Probably more realistic that we could keep Hartline if we signed Jennings rather than Wallace. Even if we sign one of the big 3 UFA WRs, we still need to draft at least one in our first 5 draft picks, IMO.
Sign Jennings and Dustin Keller. Resign Hartline. Draft at least one WR and either Ertz or Eifert in the top 5 picks. That would probably get RT very excited.
I'm torn on Wallace b/c I think he's most effective in the slot. I also think that's where Bess' skill set fits best so I'm not sure that Wallace is the necessarily the best compliment.
we need receivers that are will to or able to go over the middle. That is not Bess' game and Hartline seems unwilling. I really dont know much about Wallace but it seems to me he is a way faster Hartline in that his game is outside the hashmarks. If we sign Wallace we dont need to bring Hartline back. I think Wallace it is going to take 9 mil (per season) to sign Wallace. Hartline is going to want somewhere in the 6 mil range… why not give Wallace the extra 3 mil (or so) and call it a day?
Personally, I think Philbin wants guys that run the full route tree manning all WR positions. Sure, Player X might be better deep and Player Y might be better in the slot, but I think he likes guys that can do it all. In fact, I think that's partly what he means when he talks about not needing a #1 WR per se.
BTW, Wallace has scored 32 TD's compared to 6 by Hartline in the same time frame. His rookie season Wallace scored 6 TDs, Hartlines career total.
Wouldnt mind Jennings and Keller followed by Ertz and a WR in the 2nd and 3rd. I would like to see Bess as the 4th WR option for the Fins
I personally think Jennings wants to win and he's going to want to play for a winner. We were mediocre and despite being 7-9 I think we were actually much worse than that. So on top of already being a bad team we have a bunch of leaks that are springing from skill positions that already needed upgrading (Smith, Fartline, Long, etc). Is letting Hartline walk and signing Jennings an upgrade? Assuming Jennings is healthy the answer is yes but Hartline had the better season in 2012 if you ask me (he was healthy). We also have the massive shoes of Jake Long to fill if we don't bring him back which I think is a stupid move (he needs to be re signed). Our secondary was next to horrible last season and we are about to lose our best cornerback in Sean Smith. Chris Clemons is a big unknown as well! I just think we have bigger things to worry about than trying to sign Greg Jennings. Jennings like Peyton Manning is not going to want to come and play for this mess of a team right now. At 29 years old he just doesn't fit into the grand scheme of things long term. I don't see Jennings as a fit unless we are letting some of our other established veterans walk like Dansby, Long, Bush, and Smith and then what do you have? A 29 year old receiver playing on a team of un-established young guys and a still major unknown in Ryan Tannehill. If we are going to spend money on the wide receiver position it should be to re-sign Hartline and maybe throw an offer at Dwayne Bowe or Mike Wallace. Unless Jennings just really wants to play for Miami I don't see it happening. This team is a mess right now and we are nowhere near competing at a top level in my opinion. It's going to take a lot more than Greg Jennings to get us back to winning games. We really for once need to have a good draft. Greg Jennings only makes sense if you are pushing to win now and if we are pushing to win now we probably need to bring back Smith, Long, Hartline, and Bush as well as sign Jennings. Even then I don't think that is a core good enough to compete with the top teams in the league.
Two wide receivers plus Hartline and two tight ends in big-money free agency and high in the draft is not an effective or efficient use of resources. That's more than the Packers roll with, and they've got a quarterback that can maximize their ability to do it. Zach Ertz and Dustin Keller on the same team would be a very sad two-tight end package from a blocking standpoint. Someone falls down at a defenders feet, while the other throws a block that looks like he is guarding an opposing player in basketball. No yards were gained that run play.
I honestly don't see any case against getting Jennings. I see some concerns about things we have no idea about, like age and injury (neither of which are all that bad). To me, a case for or against is based on things we know for a fact. The facts in favor of acquiring him far outweigh and outnumber the virtually non existent facts against acquiring him.
I've seen Wallace go across the middle before. He can do it just fine from what I could tell. Get open, make the catch. With his deep speed, he can run comebacks all day, back shoulder throws, etc. Hartline has had one good season, and now he's going to command 6 mil? That seems a little steep to me, for a guy who was just a middling WR for 3 seasons before that. I agree, if Hartline is going to take 6 mil a year to resign and we could get Wallace for 9 mil, pay the extra and sign Wallace.
I'd like someone to please tell me then, what routes Jennings can effectively run, that Wallace just absolutely cannot. Until that point, I'm taking the Wallace=limited route tree thing with a grain of salt.
I think Wallace is most effective outside the hashes, but I really do not know anything as a WR that he absolutely cannot do. As for Bess being best in the slot, that may be a misconception due to his physical skill set and one I used to agree with too. Then, D'pate or someone posted some split stats on Bess last year that showed he was actually more productive lined up outside.
.... but that doesn't mean the offense is more productive or optimized with Bess on the outside, and that's all that should matter. Playing Bess on the outside is as counterproductive as Odrick at nickel DE. Jared has probably had more success applying pressure from DE than DT, so does that suddenly mean we don't need to upgrade our pass rush ability on the outside? I could care less how a player's production compares to his own from a different position; I care about his side of the ball's overall production.
1. That would depend on who the other WRs are IMO. 2. Odrick appeared to me to be more effective passing rushing from DT in the nickel than he did rushing from DE in the base defense. Odrick was seldom if ever used as a nickel package DE. So I cannot agree with that example.
