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Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB? | Part II

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Jan 11, 2013.

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  1. Jan 12, 2013 #81
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    We're about to find out.
     
  2. Jan 12, 2013 #82
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Nice cop out.
     
  3. Jan 12, 2013 #83
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    It'll help some. It didn't help Henne though but I do think Tannehill is better than him.
     
  4. Jan 12, 2013 #84
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You'll have to show us how much worse Tannehill was in his rookie season than future franchise QBs were in their rookie seasons with regard to those variables.
     
  5. Jan 12, 2013 #85
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    I don't buy into that garbage. You're either accurate or you're not. His accuracy didn't improve as the season went on either.
     
  6. Jan 12, 2013 #86
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Ah OK. Then I suppose all we're left with with regard to your belief is the personal opinion of one "Serpico Jones."

    I'll take the predictive statistical "garbage." :lol: ;)
     
  7. Jan 12, 2013 #87
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Watch the games. They'll tell you everything you want to know.
     
  8. Jan 12, 2013 #88
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Sure. That's why we all agree about everything here. We all watch the games, and they tell us all everything we want to know! ;)
     
  9. Jan 13, 2013 #89
    Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    His accuracy was 58%. Andrew Lucks was 54. I guess he can't be a franchise qb since his accuracy went into the ****ter too right?
     
  10. Jan 13, 2013 #90
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Here are data on rookie QB completion percentage:

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 178"]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    QB​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    Completion %age​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Franchise QB?​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Tannehill​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    58.3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Luck​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    54.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Wilson​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    64.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    RGIII​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    65.6​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Weeden​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    57.4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white, align: center"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Newton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    60​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Dalton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    58.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Bradford​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    60​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Palmer​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    60.9​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Roethlisberger​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    66.4​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Ryan​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    61.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Flacco​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    60​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Ponder​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    54.3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Stafford​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    53.3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Gabbert​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    50.8​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Sanchez​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    53.8​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Young​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    51.5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Leinart​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    56.8​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Freeman​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    54.5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Gradkowski​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    54​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Orton​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    51.6​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Edwards​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    56.1​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Clausen​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    52.5​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Walter​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    53.3​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    Smith​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    50.9​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    No​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 94, bgcolor: white"]
    EManning​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 78, bgcolor: white"]
    48.2​
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: white"]
    Yes​
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    The correlation between rookie completion percentage and career QB rating is 0.56, which is moderately strong, so it is indeed a predictor of future performance.

    The average rookie completion percentage of the future franchise QBs is 57.9, with a standard deviation of 4.75, and the average rookie completion percentage of the future non-franchise QBs is 53.1, with a standard deviation of 2.09.

    So, contrary to the beliefs of some in this thread, Ryan Tannehill's rookie completion percentage of 58.3% places him slightly above the average of the future franchise QBs, and a good two and a half standard deviations above the average of the future non-franchise QBs.

    This is easy enough to do folks. Personal opinions are rather weak in the face of this IMO.

    Obviously "watching the games" alone doesn't cut it, even for the likes of people with usernames as awesome as "Serpico Jones." ;)
     
    cuchulainn and Perfectville_USA like this.
  11. Jan 13, 2013 #91
    Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    Going to give a couple of Mike Maylock quotes, for the forum.

    “What I watched on tape, I thought this kid’s got a really bright future,” Mayock said Tuesday morning on WQAM 560-AM. “I think it’s hard to say to the fans in Miami, ‘Be patient,’ because there hasn’t been a lot of winning there for awhile. But that’s the key – be patient with this new staff and trust that you’re going to get some receivers and some people to complement this kid. Because in my opinion, this kid can play. He’s the future of your franchise.”

    “Your offense is really difficult to watch, because you’re trying to manufacture yards without speed,” Mayock said. “There’s no vertical threat on a consistent basis. It’s almost like watching an offense playing in a red zone for 100 yards, because defenses begin to compress on you.”

    “As a matter of fact, I think the experience of having to play this kind of football is going to help him,” Mayock said. “He has to fit it in tight windows. He’s got to be physically tough because he’s going to take a little bit of a beating right now. And once you start to get some speed out there and some wide receiver separation, it’s going to look like he’s got huge windows compared to what he’s dealt with this year.”


    Now I believe Ryan Tannehill is going to end up being a great NFL QB myself. Strong arm, moves well in the pocket, smart kid with high IQ, quick release and great work ethic. But it's going to take time, remember he only had 18 starts at the QB position in college. As Mike Mayock said, we need to be patient with him.
     
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  12. Jan 13, 2013 #92
    Rhody Phins Fan

    Rhody Phins Fan Well-Known Member

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    I think the one thing that you can really take away from this data is that this season is not evidence that Tannehill can't be a franchise quarterback. YOuc an't really point ot his numbers and say "see, he'll never make it." Other than that, we'll just have to wait and see.
     
  13. Jan 13, 2013 #93
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well I think you can do better than that.

    If you were betting money on whether he'd become a franchise QB, at least in terms of the way "franchise QB" has been defined in the original post (and its "prequel" thread), then you'd win money far more often than not by betting that QBs who performed the way Tannehill did this year would eventually become franchise QBs.

    In other words, it's a whole lot more likely than not that he'll become a franchise QB, based on the data. And when the odds are in your favor in that way, you win more of your bets than you lose.
     
  14. Jan 13, 2013 #94
    Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    Well to be fair Serpico Jones, he is on national TV working for the NFL network. Plus watched tons of college football each year, to get get ready for a live draft show. Also played college and pro football and has worked as a NFL scout before. Ohh wait.. that is Mike Maylock and not Serpico Jones. Sorry Serpico your on your own here lol.
     
  15. Jan 13, 2013 #95
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And those kinds of folks never seem to learn the inherent limitations of their personal opinions. They continue to be stated with the same certainty and grandiosity, even in the face of objective evidence to the contrary.

    The word "delusion" was coined to describe this phenomenon.
     
  16. Jan 13, 2013 #96
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Some men just want to watch the world burn.
     
  17. Jan 13, 2013 #97
    Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    Once Tennehill has recievers that can stretch the field? Or give Tennehill bigger windows, to throw the football into? Then we will know for sure if Tennehill is a franchise QB or not. Right now the weapons are just not there. As there little seperation between our WR's and the defense backs.
     
  18. Jan 13, 2013 #98
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    He's performing like a future franchise QB with his current supporting cast.
     
  19. Jan 13, 2013 #99
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure you said the same thing about Chad Henne.
     
  20. Jan 13, 2013 #100
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    :lol:

    You had about one choice for redeeming some degree of credibility here, and that was the statement "I stand corrected."

    You didn't make that choice.
     
  21. Jan 13, 2013 #101
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    And why would I write that? Nice way to dodge the question. I've heard all this crap before with Henne.
     
  22. Jan 13, 2013 #102
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Now you're just making it worse. :)
     
  23. Jan 13, 2013 #103
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    I see. You were one of those Henne backers. He just needs receivers too, right? Isn't that what you were saying in 2009? And Mike Mayock is the same idiot that said Pat White would eventually beat out Chad Pennington and Chad Henne and be the starter down here. He also said Blaine Gabbert was a franchise QB. I take what Mayock says and I pass it through my ***.
     
  24. Jan 13, 2013 #104
    Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Fair enough. What's your record and prove it.
     
  25. Jan 13, 2013 #105
    Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    How would you know if Shou was a Henne backer if you joined this site in 2012?
     
  26. Jan 13, 2013 #106
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Lurking.
     
  27. Jan 13, 2013 #107
    Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Stranger danger! Stranger danger!
     
  28. Jan 13, 2013 #108
    Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Let me guess, you knew Henne was going to suck after his 2009 season where he threw over 300 yards 3 times in a span of 4 weeks? What led you to believe that he was going to be a bust after flashing some excellent stretches of football?
     
  29. Jan 13, 2013 #109
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    He badly choked at the end of that season. He threw a bunch of interceptions against the Titans and Bills and pissed away our playoff chances in those games. I knew then that he wasn't the answer.
     
  30. Jan 13, 2013 #110
    Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill ended the season throw 5 Tds vs 1 pick with his best receiver hobbled and his second best receiver gone. His second te was also injured. You could argue he should had had another 3 Tds but his receivers dropped the ball. Comparing him to Henne is beyond ridiculous.
     
  31. Jan 13, 2013 #111
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    I'm not comparing him to Henne. I'm pointing out that people were too quick to crown Henne the franchise QB. Hold up a bit with all this franchise QB talk until we see Tanny win some big games. Sheesh!
     
  32. Jan 13, 2013 #112
    Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Actually you said he wasn't going to be a franchise qb PERIOD. Shou is saying that he has done nothing do say he CAN'T be one. You seem to have a bit of malice towards Tannehill.
     
  33. Jan 13, 2013 #113
    Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    I think he is more likely to end up in the second tier of QB's with guys like Romo, Cutler and Stafford. There's nothing wrong with that, those guys are good.
     
  34. Jan 13, 2013 #114
    Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    I agree he can be a second tier guy. There are only 5 or 6 first tier guys. I honestly wouldnt judge any of the rookie Qbs based on one season.
     
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