The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill: Part II

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Dec 24, 2012.

  1. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    There is no work to do.

    Your hypothesis is defeated by the most basic concept of two people are needed to catch a pass. Other than that, there is no way with numbers to prove you used the wrong stats to get a correlation, because the basic concept is flawed...deeply so.
     
  2. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    WADR ur nuts. Stats my ***, A Brown is a dangerous WR who can make plays on deep balls, turn short passes into long gains and is a quality punt returner to boot. The Steelers gave him that deal even though they already had Mike Wallace on the roster. The same Wallace that many of us are hoping to acquire. So tell me, if we had Mike Wallace on the team would be worried about The Hitman Hartline? I thinks not.

    Hartline won't see 8 or 6 or 5 Millie a year from any team, 4 Millie is overpaying but I won't rule it out. I look forward to you guys returning from fantasy land.
     
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  3. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    You need to do the same thing if you're going to make a whole thread about it. Are you completely ignorant to the fact that your statistics are just fabricated and don't conclude anything?
     
  4. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Then what are you doing here providing post number four hundred and fifty-one? :headscratch:
     
  5. Theres too many exceptions out there to give your rule merit.
     
  6. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    How do you know the percentage of cases that comprise the exceptions, versus the percentage that comprise the rule?

    If there are 5,000 total cases, for example, and someone creates a thread and mentions the 5% that comprise the exceptions to the rule, there would be 250 total cases to mention as exceptions. If those were all that were mentioned, it would sure look like those were the rule, eh?

    That's why in the absence of a systematic, objective study (e.g., what Stringer Bell has been proposing above), all these rebuttals simply rest at the level of theory.
     
  7. Going by your rule it concludes that the top 10 passers this year are:

    1 Johnny Hekker
    2. Mohamed Sanu
    3. Golden Tate
    4. Shaun Hill
    5. Kyle Orton
    6. Tim Masthay
    7. Derek Anderson
    8. Jeremy Kerley
    9. Mike Williams
    10. Chase Daniels

    These 10 are ranked the higest out of 80 other players. That alone creates a 12% anomaly in your rule. We could go through all 80 and find more.

    EDIT The point is that you are not using an objective study to make your case.
     
  8. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Basically Shou is saying that having an AJ Green type receiver makes NO difference in terms of scoring points. A receiver or TE doesn't help a qb at all.
     
  9. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    The same thing everyone else is doing: telling you that you're wrong.

    If there is something in your brain that makes you think that, because people post in a thread, they automatically must agree with you, you really don't know how social interaction works. You're 40, though, so I doubt that's the case.

    I remember my first beer, but ****.
     
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  10. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I suppose then you'll have to contact espn.com and thell them they're way off base on this page:

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

    And while you're at it, tell Pro Football Reference they need to totally reconfigure their stats on this page:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

    :rolleyes:
     
  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well I've heard you, for the half-dozenth time now, so feel free to run along now if you feel this is just all so useless. :up:
     
  12. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    So a great receiver won't help Tannehill?
     
  13. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    Can someone please explain to me how this thread has reached 23 pages?!?!?!?!?!
     
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  14. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    It'd be sinful for me to let a friend of mine go through life by the dogma of the statistic deeming David Garrard a superior player to Johnny Unitas.
     
  15. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    You guys want to keep *****in' about a lack of talent?


    I give you Super Bowl winning WR Phil ****ing McConkey...

    [​IMG]




    Now stop all this negative nancy nuance...
     
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  16. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    Still more respectable than the methodology in the OP.
     
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  17. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    :rimshot:
     
  18. There list is not wrong it is incomplete. I got my stats from nfl.com http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING

    The 10 players I listed all have a QBR above 108, Rodgers's is only 106, clearly if you are measuring based on their QBR then there is 10 players better then him this year. GB Should think of maybe dealing with Dallas for Orton or make Det an offer for Hill :shifty:
     
  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    The confidence interval for such small sample makes them meaningless.
     
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  20. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    :rimshot:
     
  21. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    That stuff doesn't warrant any kind of serious response IMO.
     
  22. Meaning what?
     
  23. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    /thread
     
  24. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    confidence interval...elaborate
     
  25. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Meaning that a passer rating based on 3 passes attempted is statistically insignificant.
     
  26. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Its a measure of how reliable the measurement is. Its like how when you see polling done, they will provide a margin of error. The higher the margin of error, the lower the confidence interval.

    In this particular case, having 1 pass, or 3 passes thrown does not provide a reliable passer rating.
     
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  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Does posting stats from only 3 QBs on just 15 games for only one year provide for a high or low confidence interval when making sweeping proclamations like Shou has done?
     
  28. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Which proclamation are you trying to determine the confidence interval for?
     
  29. Agreed and that goes to my point that there other factors in the evaluation other then just the QBR. Just as the number of passes attempted can skew the QBR so can who the ball is being thrown to as well as other factors. None of which he factors in. Shou is self annointing himself as being the definitive authority on QB evaluation based on his charts and he is building them from a flawed foundation. I have pointed this out to him numerous times in this thread but instead of simply acknowledging that there is room for flaw in his equation the only thing he offers back is smug little remarks that imply he is so much smarter then anyone disagreeing with him.

    /Thread
     
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  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Oh...this one:

     
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  31. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I don't really see where you are going with this. The numbers he posted were statistically sound. How those are interpreted is pretty much up to each individual.
     
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  32. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Unfortunately you can't assign a confidence interval to someone's interpretation of certain statistics.
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    So if started a thread about the effectiveness of J. Lane in the running game, and used field goal stats to prove it based on my own interpretation, it wouldn't get moved out of here for being utterly ridiculous?
     
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  34. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    you can say that for almost any statistic. Any as in any in existence, as they all measure some aspect of the system.
     
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  35. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Thinking more about this, I went in and changed the partial correlations in the grid above to semipartial correlations, since in theory I would think you'd want to control for the variance in QB rating associated with TD passes, but not the variance in offensive scoring associated with TD passes. Those semipartial correlations are in red above.

    Anyone want to take a stab at analyzing that?
     
  36. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Thanks Stringer, I've never heard of the confidence interval...
     
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  37. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Pods do you sometimes just type what sounds good? lol. Manningham was a ROOKIE in '08 with all of 4 catches. 34 year old Amani Toomer started 12 games. Steve Smith was a sophomore still developing. Burress was 31 and started 9 games.

    What's your point? Cruz wasn't in NY in '08 BTW.
     
  38. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Probably not, no.
     
  39. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Actually what I've done is re-analyze the data, twice! :)

    Now, I'm sorry if that was prompted by Stringer Bell's responses to the thread, rather than your own.

    But since you've "ended" the thread, I'll assume you'll be moving along now. Thanks for your contribution. :)
     
  40. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It would either get moved to the rants area or out of bounds, and you know it.
     

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