They both are set to have similar targets. So Hartline doesn't have an advantage in terms of targets. If anything, Brown has the advantage because he is playing with Big Ben and Hartline is playing with Tannehill. So again, similar targets, similar numbers. One has a future HOF QB. The other is playing with a rookie.
B-b-but raw numbers and no context makes me right guys!! Seriously. Guys like Lance Moore and Domenik Hixon would be housing some of the passes Hartline trips over himself to catch. At some point people are going to have to realize that they're butchering statistical analysis by posting raw numbers and removing context. China has total GDP higher than Norway so all Chinese live better...right? But take a measure like HDI, and all of a sudden, one country is a hell of a lot better to live in. Hartline has more yards than Larry Fitzgerald so Hartline is better. Context and TD's be damned.
You understand the context of surrounding talent right? He's beating out actual NFL WR's for targets. Hartline being one of only two NFL receivers on the Dolphins and having similar targets is appalling, especially considering it was Brown's SECOND year in the league.
I think you're confusing stats with performance. We're simply having to throw him the ball more often considering there's no one behind him and it's not like the passing game will shut down. We still have to throw the ball regardless of the lack of talent on the field. [TABLE="width: 600"] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD="align: center"]catch%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]yards/att[/TD] [TD="align: center"]avg[/TD] [TD="align: center"]1st %[/TD] [TD="align: center"]TD%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]20+ yard%[/TD] [TD]lost fumble[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011:[/TD] [TD="align: center"]52.2%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]8.19[/TD] [TD="align: center"]15.7[/TD] [TD="align: center"]44.8%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]1.5%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]11.9%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012:[/TD] [TD="align: center"]57.4%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]8.56[/TD] [TD="align: center"]14.9[/TD] [TD="align: center"]38.0%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]0.9%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]10.2%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 1st down % and TD % are inferior and far from what you want in a primary target. Just goes to show he can't handle the load when more responsibility is asked of him. He's a complimentary piece, not a focal one.
It's not appalling. Even if we bring in Jennings next season and an upgrade over Fasano, Hartline should still probably see the same amount of targets next season. Anyway, the amount if targets shouldn't be the focus here. It's the production, which is similar. I can see why you chose to ignore that, though.
This is not reasonable because their workloads are not that great. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline could have the number of targets they do now in a pass-heavy offense as #2 and #3's. It's not spectacular, but it's well above average for starting wide receivers. I'm not sure how you define clutch. There's a tendency to identify "clutch" as meaning nothing other than a desire to have missed opportunities hit on, while every other important "clutch" performance being dismissed in retrospect. Their workload isn't that great in the grand scheme of things. Their slice of the pie fits very with what it would if we had better options and threw more. What they are doing is easily sustainable with better receiving options. They're not getting Brandon Marshall workloads. Yet then, why are Davone Bess and Brian Hartline still so effective? They're apparently neither deep threats, so they're not respecting that portion. The majority of their work would then be the area which is flooded with defenders. Not kidding at all. There are teams who spend a large portion of their time with a safety in the box, and players who spend a majority of their time doing it. One safety in the box does not mean one player in a deep zone, or that there is a concession towards playing the run. Cover-3 and quarters variants with a safety who is a big wildcard is fundamental to a lot of defenses and "play-making" safeties, Reshad Jones notably.
Wouldn't YPT be heavily affected by scheme? A guy who is given a fair amount of screen passes and short passes in space by design would functionally have more targets and a lower YPT, no? There's a contextual part to this debate too.
On what basis are you making these claims. Throw Hartline on the same team as Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson and no way he sees similar production. Brandon Marshall alone kept his numbers down to 615 at their highest. This comparison makes no sense here. James Jones is playing with much more than Greg Jennings.
Because his workload right now isn't that great. He's not seeing an abnormal amount of passes thrown his way like a Brandon Marshall. The workload his is seeing right now would be similar with Jennings opposite him because we would obviously pass more. And if not, Hartline is still an efficient receiver. He doesn't need 130+ passes his way to be productive. He's proven he can be productive with lesser targets. Which is the most important thing, right? He's productive and efficient.
That's not an argument that he's gotten worse as a #1 wide receiver. That's not a significant statistical shift, and is just as likely explained by a change in route tree and things of that nature. Would love to see those raw numbers where you're getting 1st down % too to see what a primary target "should" look like.
If I could combine the below pictures into one of those 1 word motivational pictures, it'd be called "Perspective".
This is a rare occurrence that only the top couple of receivers warrant. This is basically a Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson kind of thing. This is not. Single high defensive looks happen all the time. The Dolphins did it a load vs. the Patriots, and it wasn't about "respect"
Sorry but you can't show stats comparing Hartline to the top receivers in the NFL and then dismiss me showing a visual comparison of Hartline vs a top NFL receiver. Can't have your cake and eat it, too, WADR. And you're right, the 2nd pic isn't a rare occurrence; our pass catchers have routinely seen a lack of respect like that for most of the year.
That's not at all what I, or anyone has argued. That's not a "top receiver" thing, as in top 10 or even top 5 receivers in the league. That's a Hall of Fame receiver in their prime kinda thing. I don't think I ever remember seeing that with Brandon Marshall here. That's not having your cake and eating it to. That's like mentioning cake and you saying "THAT'S NOT CAKE ITS **** THIS IS CAKE
How about looking at "clutch" as an honest assessment of how often Hartline or Bess make game changing, or at least highly significant plays? And maybe not hiding behind semantics, since there is no exact formula that I know of regarding clutch or go-to players? Because comments like these: "I'm not sure how you define clutch. There's a tendency to identify "clutch" as meaning nothing other than a desire to have missed opportunities hit on, while every other important "clutch" performance being dismissed in retrospect." are a little curious, and smack of evading the issue. So how do you define clutch? Maybe you can just use your own definition, if you have a reasonable one. Do you find Hartline and Bess to be clutch players, as defined by you? Or are you just focused on their 60 yards per game or so equaling really good WR production, regardless of the circumstances? And statements like this reveal a lot: "Yet then, why are Davone Bess and Brian Hartline still so effective? They're apparently neither deep threats, so they're not respecting that portion. The majority of their work would then be the area which is flooded with defenders." Because Bess and Hartline are NOT so effective. Sixty indiscriminate yards per game does not necessarily equal particularly effective yards. And an added Safety in the box- you seriously think that they're primarily concerned with H & B? Given 8 in the box so often and no other viable options at WR, 60 yards isn't exactly a windfall. And as to the safety in the box comment of yours at the end, in our case it usually does mean that defenses are favoring the run because B&H can be disrespected, average a relatively painless 60 yards per game each and rarely burn overaggressive defenses for touchdowns- or score touchdowns at all for that matter.
That would form the basis of only a one-sided analysis. The balanced analysis would be one in which that data was obtained for a sample of relevant receivers, and Hartline's number was compared with the average among them.
I think the more likely case is that people would consider WRs that make people miss to be top-30 regardless of their actual ability.
Three problems with that in terms of your analysis: 1) Even if they all do have one, Hartline's number of zero wouldn't be significantly lower than theirs. 2) If Hartline goes out tomorrow and gets one, does that suddenly mean he has more ability? In other words, the difference between one and zero is just as easily (or more) attributable to random factors as it is to ability. 3) I strongly doubt there are 30 receivers in the league total, let alone every one of the top 30, who have done what you're saying here. Add all that together, and you have a problem.
The only real issue I have with Hartline is his lack of TDs. I'm pretty happy with everything else he does.
Yes, sure, I do. They perform well when it's important. When the Dolphins are driving late in a game to try to win or tie, they perform well. Those drives overwhelmingly involve them performing well. They both statistically perform well when the team is down through 1-8 on splits. What I'm waiting for is "well why didn't they make the game winning play if they're clutch!" Well, the yards aren't garbage time, because the team has rarely been down that far. I'm telling you a safety in the box is for a variety of reasons. It is not inherently a concession vs. the run. It's a fundamental feature of defensive schemes.
That's bull****, I'm not going to go look. Even if there are none, Antonio Brown having one doesn't make him double as worthwhile a player. Chad freaking Pennington made a dude miss once in his career too. Does it inherently involve merit?
I seem to remember you ripping Hartline and saying he would wash out of the league in a few years because of his lack of playmaking abilities in your review of the 49ers game.
Here's the quote in question: I realize sarcasm sometimes doesn't read well on the internet, but if I called him a piece of ****(personally, not professionally fyi) and said that he'll probably be out of the league once his contract here expired at the end of this year, those are solid indications that the commentary in question is tongue in cheek.
What does this mean: "They both statistically perform well when the team is down through 1-8 on splits." And maybe you can be a bit more specific about B&H being clutch. As to the safety in the box, I'm telling you- in our case it's largely a reflection of how piss poor B&H are at threatening a defense. Your points as to this are more general statements- we're talking about Miami and why defenses stack the box against us. And it's because B&H aren't deep threats and don't command 2 deep coverage. Ergo crowding the LOS, which blows for the rest o f the offense and drags on them. You could refer to that as negative synergy. Here's Joe Philbin on how "clutch" the WRs were last week in yet another loss: "Joe Philbin: WRs' inability to create separation an issue" Dolphins drop to 5-8 on the season. South Florida Sun Sentinel 12:20 p.m. EST, December 11, 2012 Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin said Monday during his Monday news conference that the inability by the team's receivers to create separation was costly late in Sunday's 27-13 loss to the 49ers. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...n-an-issue-20121211,0,2288753.story?track=rss Would it be easier for you to dismiss this criticism of Bess and Hartline, as you have the other notable criticisms of late- Tim Bowens, Jason Taylor, Mike Mayock, etc? iirc you can add Shula, Marino and Bill Polian to that list- there is no shortage of prominent NFL figures that see the same thing- a pedestrian starting WR tandem of Hartline and Bess is stagnating the Dolphins offense. But as you indicated earlier in the thread, none of these criticisms matter very much, right? As long as B&H can flirt with 1000 yards, regardless of how they effect the offense, regardless of the quality and importance of those yards, regardless of how lousy the backup WRs are, regardless of how little threat they pose to opposing defenses and defenses crowding the box, regardless of how few TDs they score- as long as you can point to a statistic that they average around 60 yards a game each, then everything is ok with them as a starting WR duo- right?
