Benching Smith was poor in the bigger picture imo. It's set up for the tattooed one to fail and Smith to step up. Will be interesting to see if Miami can burst the Kaepernick love bubble. I know if we manage to bench him then we've still got problems with Smith. Win win situation for 49ers. I'm more worrried about Gore.
He hasnt been asked to do that much because Harbaugh is smart enough to realize his limitations. When the previous 6 Offensive coordinators asked him to do more he simply couldnt. Part of that was the constant change he was dealing with but part of that was the fact he is not an elite QB option and I dont know one Niner fan who believes he is. Hes a game manager type and hes better then Kaepernick in that role I agree. hes better then Kaepernick right now in any role. I just dont see Smith as an irreplaceable QB like a Rodgers, Brady, Roethlisberger class or even in the next tier with guys like Luck, RG 3, Stafford, Ryan etc. You compare Smith to Rodgers but apples to apples comparison the GB OL didnt play well vs the NYG DL which was by far the biggest strength of the NYG D last year. SF has the OL for such a matchup and actually 2x now they played reasonably well against a DL that loves to play its best in the biggest games. And 2x now Smith was average (NFC CG) and pooped the bed (this year). What passer ratings dont factor in is the way an offense is run and the way the game is called. You have to see and understand the game to factor that in. While I think you know how to do that, I do think Smith gets babied in the way other game manager types get babied. His stats may look pretty but its because his coach knows his limitations. When you compare Brady to Smith in their games vs the NYG D factor in that the Pats didnt have a great running game last year so Brady had to throw more and the Giants knew it. And to be fair the Giants own Brady (and hopefully it stays that way). They have put together 4 straight against NE including the 2 SB wins, the longest streak against Brady in the last 10 years. Also another problem with Smith, is when he gets down vs a competent D that game is done.
The 49ers have a lot of talent at wide receiver, one of the best, most athletic tight ends in the league, a top notch running game and has one of the best defenses in the league. Even with Smith's high quarterback ranking they are still 14th in the league in points scored.
I think he hasn't been asked to do that because they haven't needed him to. You don't ask a single player, even a QB, to carry a team on his back unless you need to. He did take some time to develop and I think the constant shuffling of coordinators was a big part of that. But saying he's not an elite QB is far different from saying he should be benched with a 19-5-1 QB rating over the last 2 years, a close loss in the NFL Championship and a 104 passer rating this year. I don't think he is elite, but I think he is good and is a guy you can win with. And they have won with him. That they lost by 3 in OT of the NFL championship game to the eventual Super Bowl champions doesn't say otherwise. I am not saying Smith is as good as Rodgers or anything remotely like that. I just pointed out that the Giants D stymied and defeated some great QBs, including Rodgers, in that SB run last year. And your argument that Rodgers performance is distinguishable because his OL didn't play well against the Giants simply doesn't hold water. In the GB-NYG playoff game, Rodgers was under pressure on 28.6% of his dropbacks. In the SF-NYG game, Smith was under pressure on 55.9% of his dropbacks, which is almost twice the frequency that Rodgers was under pressure. Moreover, GB actually ran more effectively against NYG than SF did (23 carries for 147 yards). In the SB, the Pats rushed for a very healthy 4.4 ypc, so the lack of rushing support argument doesn't hold true there either. I'm not sure why Brady gets a pass for being "owned" by the Giants but Smith doesn't (and actually has the Giants games used as proof of his inadequacy). Over the past 2 season, against the NFL other than the Giants, Smith is 411 of 644 for 4732 yards, 32 TDs and 6 INTs, for a passer rating of 98.6 and a record as a starter of 19-4-1. And then he gets benched after a 2 game stretch of near QB perfection.
I never said Smith should be benched. I have stated numerous times I like him more then Kaepernick. Re-read my initial post.
That's not really an indictment of Smith, it is a matter of pace and style. The Niners are 29th in the NFL in plays per game, despite having the 8th highest time of possession. They play slow. They run a lot. But they are in the top 10 in the league in points per play (even though rushing plays inherently average fewer yards per play than passing plays). Their style and pace causes points scored to be lower, but it also causes points allowed to be lower (and is a big part of why they have the NFL's top defense in points allowed).
I didn't say you said it, I am just reiterating how ridiculous it was that he was benched. I am interested in your response to the rest of the post, which is directed to what you said.
It is also not really not an indictment of Smith. As he could be the reason they run a lot and play slow.
Suck for Luck..... Tannehill because I think if you put Kap on this team, it would be worse off than with a Qb that knows this offense. I also think RT has a huge upside.
If that's the case, they should thank him. Their style and pace has been very successful for them the last few years. Over that span they have had the fewest giveaways per game in the NFL. As mentioned before, the pace has helped their defense be as good as it has been. They are still scoring efficiently on a points per play basis. and they have won with Smith, as I think they probably had the NFL's best record from the beginning of 2011 to Smith's benching. They were an OT FG away from going to the Super Bowl last year. IMO, if they think they will be better suited to beat teams like GB, NYG, NE, etc. by playing a fast paced passing offense with Kaepernick they will be sorely disappointed.
That might be the case, however it is obvious that they don't. They tried to replace Smith before the season with Manning and then as soon as Kaepernick looks decent, they bench him.
MrC, what's up with the photos in your sig? I've come to count on you for some chocolate eye candy. Vanilla or mocha is good too, it's just not what I've come to expect.
Doesn't matter who plays QB for them. Their D will shut down our offense. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shutout or no more than about 6 points scored by Miami, unless something unusual happens like our D taking the ball away deep in 49er territory.
Can't really tell. they have averaged about 60 offensive plays per game for the season. They had 55 against the Bears, 63 against the Saints and 77 against the Rams (but that included 13 plays in overtime). It doesn't look like there has been a clear increase in pace, which IMO suggests that their pace and style has not been driven by any perceived inadequacies in Smith. I think that is just the way they want to play.
True. Is that where you are now? I traveled around Eastern Europe back in 1990. As a young guy, before I got there, I had this expectation/vision of Hungarian and Czech woman being stocky types stirring a giant vat of goulash (Eastern European porn was not so readily available back then, LOL). I was very pleasantly surprised by the reality. Being a young American there shortly after the Iron Curtain came down was like being a rock star. Good times.
Alex cant come back vs a good team with 2 minutes to go and get it done. Thats my definition of a good QB; someone that can do that with some degree of consistency. No one does it every time but good QB's at least make you believe its a 50-50 shot. Never get that feeling from Alex. he did it vs a terrible Saints D. Couldnt do it vs the NYG D. Couldnt even do it vs the Rams. Can Alex be a starter in this league? Yeah, KC, the Jets, Arizona would love him. So might Buffalo, Jacksonvillle, Oakland and Philly. But dont go out and ask him to win a game for you like you from a Brees or rally you from 6 down with 2 minutes like you would ask from an Eli Manning. With the way the rules are, I dont see a way you can win with him. Hes just not a good enough passer and all the recent Super Bowls have paired elite or borderline elite QB's. It coincides with the rule changes and Alex simply isnt in that class. So basically what Im saying is if you dont have an upper tier guy who can win a game for you and can be a franchise guy you have significantly decreased your shot at being a champion. Someone may do it but it wont be Alex Smith imo even as great as the 49er team is. The place for a game manager has disappeared/severely diminished. The problem with your numbers is that you can have multiple players getting hurries on one play. I dont know the source of your numbers but Ill assume its PFF and knowing that PFF doesnt account for that, its impossible to really argue. The way they compile stats Justin Tuck could essentially get a sack on the same play Jason Pierre Paul gets credit for a hurry. But if you watched the game Alex was rattled vs the NYG. Rodgers never was. At no point did his mechanics become undone. At no point did his eyes look glazed over or lost. At no point did his body language say he was a beaten man even the Giants beat him up pretty bad. Would you say GB or NE had as good a OL as SF? I mean after all SF's OL was widely considered to be one of the top 3 in the NFL last year and this. And NE did average 4.4 YPC vs the NYG last year. 401 attempts/1689 yards/4.2 YPC was good for a 20th ranking according to Pro Football Reference and a 60% to 40% pass/run ratio last year was their regular season. My point is you go to play the pats, youre not really thinking so much about their run game last year. Youre looking at Brady's 612 pass attempts and his records and youre thinking about taking away the things Brady likes to do not worrying about 3-4-5 yard runs and considering their long was 33 yards thats exactly what it was. You play SF and you worry about Alex Smith? Not so much. You stack 7-8 in the box and dare Alex to do anything. Brady gets a pass because hes done it vs everyone else. Smith doesnt get a pass because hes never done it vs anyone else in a big game (and by big game Im talking a conference championship/Super Bowl)
hell I would rather have Sage the Tannyhill but I rather have Marino in his prime with Ronnie and Ricky and the marks brothers in their primes.
Smith had 6 4th Q comebacks/gamewinning drives last year. 3 of them were against playoff teams (NO, NYG and Det). Another was against the Eagles, which had a pretty talented defense. Not sure what you are talking about in saying he couldn't do it against the Rams. He got hurt in the 1st Rams game this year and wasn't in at the end and he didn't play last week. Against Detroit last year, he did rally them from 4 pts down with less than 2 minutes to play. I don't see how it matters that they were down 4 instead of 6. Against Philly they were down 6, but there was 3:05 left when they took the lead -- I don't see that as a material difference. Against Cincy it was a 72 yard drive that put them ahead with just over 4 minutes left to play. And, of course, against the Saints it was a game winnign TD with 14 seconds left to cap a 85 yard drive that started with just 1:35 left in the game. No, he's not elite. Only about 5-6 QBs in the league are. I guess I just don't think the other 26-27 teams should just shrug their shoulders and give up and concede the championship to one of those 5-6 teams. No, the stats that I quoted do not have any such duplication. PFF keeps those stats for players (in which case there can be the duplication you note) and they also keep it on a team basis, in which case there is no duplication. I just learned about that set of stats on a game-by-game basis a day or two ago. I did see the game and didn't see the beaten man or glazed over eyes that you claim to have seen. He threw no interceptions in that game and had 2 TD passes. He scored as many points against the Giants as Brady did and just 3 less than Rodgers did even though he was under pressure twice as frequently as they were. I think the Pats have a pretty good OL. They did last year and they did this year. Sure, you worry about Brady more, but if you don't respect their running game they will make you pay. I don't believe the Giants disrespected the NE running game at all. Smith did it the week before in a playoff game. He doesn't need a "pass" because he didn't play badly against the Giants. His passer rating was 97.6. The threw 2 TD passes. He led a 4th quarter comeback to tie the game. His only possession of OT ended on an 11 yard completion on 3rd and 12 when Vernon Davis couldn't quite get to the first down marker.
Fineas, which teams do you think have elite QBs? Denver (Manning) Pats (Brady) Saints (Brees) Giants (Eli) Steelers (Roethlisberger) Falcons (Ryan - debatable) Rogers (Green Bay) That's it. The question is, how many Qb's OTHER than those have made Superbowl appearances in the last five years.. or eight years? (My guess is, outside of Rex Grossman... almost none... and ones like Kurt Warner, who did, were elite before they retired).
Pretty much the same as you, although I don't include Ryan yet. Yes, it is a very limited bunch. But what is every other team, except the Dolphins, supposed to do? Stop playing and cry in our milk over the fact that we don't have one of those guys? Hasselbeck, Delhomme and McNabb are the other guys who have gone to SBs in the last 8-10 years and I don't consider any of them to be in that elite class. I think there are a lot of other QBs who can win a SB on the right team and in the right circumstances. I think there are a lot of other QBs who are even capable of carrying a team through a 3-game playoff run even if they lack the consistency to be truly elite in my eyes. Guys like Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Newton, Stafford, Luck, RG3, etc. fall into that category. A lot of people don't like various of these guys for various reasons or don't think they are ready yet, but they are all capable of getting hot and putting up a few 350+ yd, 3+ TD games in a row under the right conditions.
Well, the reality is, every year is a longshot to begin with (1 in 32), but without an elite QB it's a VERY long shot. I think it's about how a QB performs in big moments, when he most needs to impact a game. Some QB's have that. Some don't. I think that's the real reason behind Harbaugh's switch. Henne didn't have it. Tannehill... jury is still out, but it's not a known strength of his for now.
Actually, Fineas, McNabb is an interesting one because I'd argue he was borderline elite... except when it came to the biggest game of his life.
Not sure where that ship was headed. Ryan had no business being a #1 overall pick, and still is highly questionable when the stakes are raised. Basically synonymous with not showing up in big games.
This post-season will tell us a lot. I feel like the Falcons and Texans are both teams that lack a strong enough leader to make it to the Superbowl.
I agree with most of that, although his 6 4th quarter comebacks last year speaks pretty well of Alex Smith in that regard. It's not all about those big moments though. Some of it is being consistent enough in the "small" moments to not have negative plays that prevent you from getting to the big moments. IMO, that is what SF has been very good at the last few years. Switching to CKap, or any inexperienced QB, is likely to lead to more mistakes that can cost you games. For example, CKap's intentional grounding in the endzone and fumble on the SF 2 yard line last week gave up 9 points that otherwise would have come in handy in a close game.
Yeah, he was borderline elite. And he did some good things in that SB. But he had some gaffes too. It happens.
