2013 NFL Draft Thread

If Swope runs a 4.3 then CJ Spiller now runs a 4.05. WADR, Swope couldn't run a 4.3 if he started at the 7 yard line. If he were 4.4 guy his yards per catch would be closer to 20 than below 13, especially with his route running prowess. He has the ability to be a very good possession receiver with the potential to make occasional plays, but he's not a burner by any stretch. It seems like you're trying to build him up as the next Percy Harvin, but he's not close to that ability.

 

I'm not really on board with your logic that a WR who runs a 4.4 should necessarily have a really big ypc, as you say closer to 20 than 13. You mention CJ Spiller- his Clemson teammate WR Jacoby Ford, for example- he was a track star, ran a 4.28 40 and averaged 13.9 yards/catch at Clemson overall, and 12.9 as a Junior. So Ford is a sub 4.3 guy, much less a sub 4.4. Given your logic what do you think that he should have been averaging per catch, 25 yards or so? Another Raider speed burner- Darius Heyward Bey. He averaged right around 15 yards per catch for Maryland and he ran a 4.30. For both of those guys that's far closer to 13 ypc than 20 ypc.

This Swope conversation between us is kind of circling the drain- I've come across plenty of evidence that Swope is indeed fast, and you want to discount it all. Tannehill said that he runs a 4.3, he ran a 10.7 100 meters officially, good for 5th in the state of Texas, he's lauded for his top level speed coming out of high school- but you seem to be convinced that he must have gotten slower since high school, which is counterintuitive to me. More muscle weight probably means he's faster since high school, not slower, that's my guess.

Tannehill point blank said that Swope runs a 4.3 40 and based on your comments above you obviously doubt the accuracy of his statement. He ran a documented 10.7 100 meter dash. The easy solution is that we'll see what he runs at the combine and his pro day. Regardless, I like Ryan Swope and I think that he would be a good fit for Miami, and I think that he's more than just a possession receiver.

I'm not sure where the Percy Harvin reference comes in to play, but I'm by no means trying to compare Swope to him. Swope looks pretty fast to me, as I've been saying all along, while Percy Harvin strikes me as one of the fastest players in the NFL and one of the best players in the league.

 

So you're saying a Texas 5A high school 5th place finisher in the 100 meter who stopped running track and gained 20 pounds is now suddenly as fast as a collegiate track star who ran the 100 meter in 10.01 and won the national indoor 60 meter? Cmon now.
Swope was 5th in 5A, not the entire state combined. Do you know how many high school track stars there are in college football? A lot. Placing 5th in one division is not always anything special.

I already pointed out how Swope ran an even slower 100 meter time than than 4.5 Jordy Nelson but you continue to push the envelop that Swope is a sub 4.4 guy, let alone a 4.4 guy? I'm sorry but I don't get it b/c I've never seen anyone try to turn a 4.5 guy into collegiate track star material. Would you like to place a wager on his speed? I'll even put the forty time at 4.47 for you and give you 2 to 1 odds. How much are you willing to bet he runs faster than that? If Swope were as fast as you're trying to imply, he'd be regarded as a likely 1st round pick.

BTW, Bey and Ford weren't the route runners in college that Swope is. That's the biggest reason they didn't have a higher yards per catch. If Swope had their speed combined with his route running ability & hands, he'd be a more legitimate deep threat and have a significantly higher YPC than he currently does.

 

So Jim, you're saying Ryan Swope is faster than Sammy Watkins (considering Sammy will be lucky to run a 4.32)?

 

I'm not really sure where you're coming from here. My initial comments were that I thought that Swope is pretty fast, a legitimate 3rd rd prospect and more than just a possession receiver. Evidence exists online that Swope is fast, but you'll have none of it. Finishing 5th in the 100 meters at 10.7 in the 5A division of the enormous state of Texas apparently doesn't mean a whole lot to you. Tannehill saying that Swope was Texas A&M's fastest receiver and ran a 4.3 40 doesn't cut it for you. He's listed online as being a 4.32 guy in high school, but you're convinced for some reason that his added muscle weight (I'm thinking 15 lbs, not 20) has made him slower. I don't think that it works that way, especially for a guy like Swope who is being trained in college to play WR and to be very fast.

I think that your problem on this issue is more with the internet than with me- you don't seem to believe anything on the internet in terms of Swope being fast. So be it.

This Swope issue is getting beaten to death and we're hijacking this thread. Maybe it's better to just let it go and agree to disagree.

 

Prepare to be surprised then.

 

Hey, how's it going over there? You guys across the pond put together a great Olympics, congrats on that one, it was a tremendous show.

 

I was actually starting to think the same of you considering you're the one believing some internet statements about Swope being a blistering sub 4.4 guy despite what our eyes and facts say. 10.7 does NOT equate to a sub 4.4. Not even close. By your assessment, half of college football skill players would run a 4.3 or better.
10.7 100 meter is nothing special. That's 4.5 forty time.

You're failing to realize 5 important things:
1. Swope's 10.70 100 Meter placed only 133rd nationally in 2008.Where as:

• 4.33-4.37 Taiwan Jones' 100M ranked 12th in '07.
• 4.31-4.33 Deonte Thompson's 100M ranked 16th in '07.
• 4.41 TJ Graham's 100M ranked 16th in '08.
• 4.36 Chris Owusu's 100M ranked 18th.
• 4.40 Lamar Miller's 100M ranked 42nd.

Yet for some reason you're trying to say the 133rd ranked Swope is faster than all these guys. I don't get it.

2. how fast a 4.3 forty time actually is.
How many players do you think run a legit 4.3 each year?
At the 2012 Combine there were ONLY 7 sub 4.4 guys (with the fastest being 4.33)... 7 sub 4.4's in 2011... only 4 in '10.... and 4 in '09. Swope couldn't break the top 130 in '08 yet he's now one of the fastest players in college football? Cmon now.

3. Not every college football player runs track in HS. If they did, Swope's 133rd ranking would be even lower.

4. 10.7 isn't his average time. It's his best time. Show me all his other times and what they average out to be. Since they're nowhere to be found, I'm guessing his average is at least 11.0.

Agree. We'll revisit it come Combine time when he's trying to break 4.5.

 

I'm not trying to say that Swope is faster than anyone. What I'm doing is relaying what I came across online. I also don't think that the combine official 40 times are the end all and be all of a player's speed. For example, I always thought that Percy Harvin was much faster than his 4.41 time indicated. I'm still baffled that Joe Adams clocked in at 4.55 or so. I'm no track guy, but it seems to me that it's not just about speed, it's also about timing and getting out of the blocks quickly when running at the combine- do or die time.

4.30 for Swope does seem awfully fast but I didn't say that, Tannehill did and that scouting site had him at 4.31 in high school. I'm just the messenger, I'd love to hear Tannehill speak more on that statement and on Swope's speed. I just see Swope as more of a speed guy than just a possession guy as you do, no big deal. We'll see how he runs at the combine and at his pro day.

"Swope’s domination of Alabama’s talented secondary shouldn’t be overlooked. Cornerback Dee Milliner is a certain first-round pick next April, and strong safety Robert Lester is expected to be selected in the second or third round. Both will be seeing Swope in their nightmares for days to come after the crafty senior torched them repeatedly.

The comparisons to Wes Welker will likely be tossed around leading up to the draft, but those would be lazy and inaccurate assessments. At 6’1″ 205 lbs, Swope is bigger, stronger and has been clocked at around 4.4 in the 40-yard dash.

If he carries his current momentum into the postseason All-Star games and next February’s Scouting Combine, Swope could end up hearing his name called as early as the second round. Regardless of when he’s taken, he’s proven himself to be a big game player who won’t back down to elite defenders, which is music to the ears of NFL brain trusts."

http://www.nfldraftsource.com/ryan-swope-delivering-when-it-counts/

 

.... and Jacoby Ford (4.28 Combine) ran an alleged 4.126 in high school at the Fork Union College Coaches Combine.
Ford wasn't faster in high school than after 4 years of college track.

Sometimes a little common sense is required.
4.31 represents the 5th fastest NFL Combine time of the past 5 years.
If Swope ran that fast in high school, he would've been higher rated and more sought after than his 3 star recruit status.

I agree, 40 times aren't necessarily the end all be all and that some players do play faster/slower than they time. In Swope's case he looks like a 4.5 guy on the field. Look, I've liked Swope a good bit since last year, but he's not a fast player, and we don't see him flying by players on the college level...... and if he's not fast compared to college competition, he certainly won't be against NFL competition.


Here's a quote from "The Fastest Players in College Football 2012":

If 10.6 and better is in the 4.4-4.5 range, what does that make a player whose best 100m time is 10.70? 4.50-4.55 range?

 

Maryland really looks intimidating in their all black uniform/all black helmets out there....... down 27-0.

 

DeAndre Hopkins just embarrassed David Amerson for a long TD.

 

Amerson's really had a disappointing season. Wonder if Hopkins was the reason Ireland was rumored to personally be attending that Clemson vs. Wake Forest game a few weeks back.

 

Wow, Kevin Hogan (Stanford redshirt freshman) doesn't look remotely close to the 51st rated QB recruit in 2011.

 

I think I've found my "keep an eye on him" guy for the next two years. Stanford CB Alex Carter, #25, is a true freshman. Pretty impressed with his play so far. Seems like he'd fit Kevin Coyle's scheme. Built like a more muscled-up version of Nolan Carroll, but seems VERY decisive for a true freshman.

Having typed that, what him get burned the next defensive series.

 

I think it's imperative we get either Shane Skov or Chase Thomas on our team..love Stephan as well..hell I'd get all three if I could.

All players recruited and coached by Harbaugh is something I don't take lightly, and their character and demeanor is a must fit in the black hole that is Miami dolphin culture..

We need their leadership, we need their intelligence, we need them to wear their black makeup, and they may just have the makeup and mental toughness to play in this town and in that stadium..

I think these are two prospects that should be absolutely on our board..

 

Quite possibly. Not to mention Andre Ellington, who would be perfect for a zone-blocking WCO, should we let Bush walk.
There's also a less heralded but well performing safety, Rashard Hall..... a linebacker with some nice potential in Tig Willard who's all over the field and was a 4x State Champ/All-American wrestler in HS...... a WCO style spread TE with some upside, Brandon Ford (ex WR), who seems to be getting much less respect than he deserves. Then there's Malliciah Goodman at DE..... plus all the talented underclassmen to get a head start on. The guys in Clemson's offense should transition nicely to what we need.

 

If we could get Hopkins, I'd want to pair him with a dominant or potentially dominant receiver who can keep Hopkins seeing consistent single coverage where he can do his most damage, as I don't think he's a #1 caliber receiver but would be a real matchup problem for opponents as a #2.

Imagine what our offense could look like if we lucked out with:
1. Keenan Allen
2. DeAndre Hopkins (if he came out)
2. Pass rusher, CB, S
3. Jordan Reed
3. Andre Ellington

 

I'm really gonna look at Stepfan Taylor and Monte Ball...Taylor is having a great game against top competition on the road, he's so traditional, and good, and tough, and smart...great year for that dude..

The way Thomas and Skov are keeping this duck offense in check on the road is impressive..that's an explosive offense with tons if speed, great Qb play, athleticism, and hi tech scheme their defending..

That team just has many endearing qualities that I wanna raid the piss out if it.

My boy Stepfan is the real deal.

 

Whats the next best think to getting Harbaugh...getting as many players that he identified to play for him, on our team..lol

You laugh, I'm not joking.

 

Well, I'm not sure where Miami's drafting at this point. Operating under the assumption that Miami will lose the next 3 games, I think they finish no better than 5-11, so I figure that's a pick in-between 5-12 in the first round. I'd throw out a mock draft looking something like this:

1. Barkevious Mingo - DE/OLB - LSU
2. Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State (don't think he'll last this long) or DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
2. Quinton Patton - WR - Louisiana Tech or Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington
3. Nico Johnson - ILB - Alabama
3. Justin Gilbert - CB - Oklahoma State (if you don't re-sign Sean Smith) otherwise I'd take a G here.

I think my one high-priced free agent acquisition would be Dashon Goldson the FS from the 49ers. That gives you a coverage safety with some physicality and allows you to keep playing Reshad Jones in the box (I wonder if that's the aspect that Kevin Coyle took from Dick LeBeau's defense as they have a SS in the box an awful lot). I think Miami's got to double-dip at CB if you don't re-sign Sean Smith. I think Rhodes and Gilbert can both play press-man pretty well. Gilbert's dipped a bit, but he's going to be one of those guys with ridiculous triangle numbers IMO, but he should probably stay in school another year.

Obviously you need a receiver in there, preferably one with speed. I doubt they'd go after Mike Wallace in free agency, but I can dream right? Assuming they don't I'd take Hopkins or Patton.

Nico Johnson I'd take there just as a long-term replacement to either Dansby or Burnett. Burnett might even be a cap casualty this year as well, and Johnson seems like he'd be a solid plug-and-play type of player.

That's where my draft would be, as of right now, depending on where Miami picks.

 

Allen is the best fit for this offense in the draft.... by far IMO.
IMO, there's nobody else in this draft like him [sans DaRick Rogers] b/c he'd allow us to operate a high percentage passing game thanks to his ability as a great short to intermediate possession receiver, but he has the ability to turn those high percentage throws into chunk yards as well as make plays downfield, and he has the huge catch radius and separation ability for his size to be a stud on 3rd down. Defensively, I think you'd have to bracket him hi/low b/c of his playmaking ability downfield and from the quick pass, which is why I think he'd be a perfect fit with Hopkins.

I understand what you're saying about the WC system and not needing a true #1, but IMO you still need enough talent on the field to create the favorable mismatches you're looking for b/c a WCO won't stop a defense from either putting its best corner on Hopkins or bracketing him hi-low or inside/out with their #2 corner and a safety or LB so that their #1 corner can cover our #2 receiver. So it'd be much to our advantage to have the talent at WR to where defenses couldn't focus on Hopkins b/c IMO he's not quite good enough at the NFL level to win those matchups as often as we'd need, but he could beat up teams that are almost forced to single him. If we had two Andre Hopkins on the field, defenses could still try to take one out of the game and be somewhat successful, but with Allen & Hopkins on the field, Allen could still be productive facing the heavier coverage.

 

I'm quite smitten with Thomas, Deej. One of my favorite players this year. I'd love to make him a 3 down player in our defense.... at OLB in base D, and DE in nickel.

 

Simon looked pretty good today. Had 4 sacks. Not sure where he projects in the draft but my guess would be 3rd/4th rounder. Not bad value for a guy that is going hard every play.

 

Not a huge fan of Mingo either. But his potential is through the roof. Sort of reminds me of Jason Pierre-Paul in a way. He'll take some seasoning, no doubt about that. But, I think he offers you a lot of flexibility in the defense. Kevin Coyle had a very similar play in Cincinnati in Michael Johnson who they use as a DE and as a stand-up LB, sort of like what he's done with Olivier Vernon to some degree. Mingo gives you a LOT more in terms of pass-rush though. I think you could almost look at San Francisco in 2011 and copy what they did. They used Ahmad Brooks and Paras Harylson as their starters off the edge (albeit in a 3-4) and used Aldon Smith solely as a pass-rusher as he was adapting from going to a DE to a true 3-4 OLB role. Smith had 14 sacks as just a pass-rusher. I think you could use Mingo as a sub-guy starting off and gradually work him in as either a DE or you can even incorporate more of a 3-4 element (to which there's already a small degree of in the defense as is) to what Miami's presently doing, a la Seattle with Bruce Irvin.

Eventually, a guy like Mingo allows you to use Jared Odrick as a sub-package DT; something he's already doing, but you keep him more fresh. Then, depending on what you want to do, you can go to a 3-4 alignment with Mingo and Wake on the outside with a front 3 of Odrick, Soliai, and Starks. I think Olivier Vernon is someone that's going to take a lot of developing, and he's more suited to the SAM spot that Koa Misi currently holds. I think Mingo's potential is such that you could develop him into a player where you wouldn't have to re-sign Koa Misi and you could use Olivier Vernon as a backup SAM and a sub-package player.

I'd rather Miami go with a more sure bet like Alex Okafor or Bjoern Werner if they're picking that early, but those are high-floor, low ceiling guys IMO. Mingo allows you to incorporate certain elements to the defense that we don't presently have, and he can probably be molded into a 3-down player where as Misi is a 2-down player and Vernon strikes me as much the same as Misi.

 

He's had a decent year playing through a lot of injuries. I'd be surprised if he's on Miami's radar though. We already have two guys in Koa Misi and Olivier Vernon that provide what you'd be bringing in John Simon to do. Of the Buckeyes, I'm more interested in keeping tabs on Spence, Washington, and Schutt. Washington especially as my family is good friends with his high school head coach, Mike Martin. What Martin did for guys like Washington at Taft High School is pretty remarkable. Very tough area, tough school culturally, and tough to win in their league with the size of their school. I guess there's the hometown factor in it for me, but I think all 3 of those guys will turn out to be pretty darn good.

 

I wonder if Miami doesn't already have a back like Stepfan Taylor in Jonas Gray once he's healthy.

 

Yeah we have those guys that Simon brings but any team that drafts him are going to be thrilled in what their getting. He can raise is stock by posting decent numbers at the combine.

Roby and Shazier hell even Devin Smith would be on the radar for me a lot soon. I think Shazier is going to be a beast in the NFL if he stays healthy. Stoneburner has been a huge disappointment since his switch to WR.

Sabino finally put that talent together. Played at a high level before getting injured.

 

I think Roby is one of those guys who could potentially blow up the combine. Honestly, I don't think it'd be a bad idea for him to leave early. This year's crop of CBs isn't all that great or deep. C.J. Barnett is a guy I'd take a late-round flyer on, sort of like Anderson Russell, but I think he gives you some size and is a true safety as opposed to Jimmy Wilson, who can play both S and CB, but doesn't do either well.

 

I didn't get that impression.

 

Maybe that white safety was fast

 

IMO he's improved since his freshman & sophomore highlights film (gotten bigger, stronger, and a hair faster), which isn't surprising.


Regarding the bold part, note the suddenness and ease of separation at the 16 second mark in the below video, and this is a from a guy who's 6'3.
(Also keep in mind Keenan can line up at all 3 receiver spots and play them well, which is important in our offense as well as helping create mismatches.)

[video=youtube;bwZ2rn8vG1A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwZ2rn8vG1A[/video]


Allen had a pretty good game vs Oregon.
[video=youtube;LIwg9N-RPIU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIwg9N-RPIU[/video]

 

Keenan Allen reminds me of Eric Decker, but perhaps a tad quicker and more sudden/shifty.