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Stringer's Power Rankings and STL @ MIA Preview

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Stringer Bell, Oct 10, 2012.

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  1. Oct 30, 2012 #121
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Essentially what I edited the post to say, that if the 11th-ranked team out of 32 is four standard deviations above the mean, how can there really be any parity in talent in the league? The wide variation in your "ability" metric argues completely against it.
     
  2. Oct 30, 2012 #122
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Thats certainly an interesting point to raise. I haven't really looked into this much. Here I plotted out teams' ratings. Miami is the red dot. The league average is the yellow dot:

    [​IMG]

    Just off my general opinion, I'd say the league is closer to "haves" and "have-nots" than it is to any kind of real parity.

    ETA: I think another thing to keep in mind when discussing parity is that there is such a small sample size in football.

    ETA2: Also I think its important to define what 'parity' is. Is it parity among teams within the same year? Or is it the ability of teams to improve or regress year-to-year?
     
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  3. Oct 30, 2012 #123
    Fineas

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    That looks like parity to me. Only 4 teams above +0.5 and only 8 teams below -0.5 (with 4 of them very close to it). That leaves about 20 teams between -0.5 and +0.5, which shows a pretty high degree of parity IMO.
     
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  4. Oct 30, 2012 #124
    shouright

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    Of course it could be either, but I suspect what the NFL wants is for no team to be out of the race so early in the season that fans stop buying as many tickets to their games or watching as many of them on TV. In other words, parity among teams within the same season.

    At first glance, you essentially do have parity, though, when it comes to teams that fall between about -0.7 and 0.5. That encompasses 24 teams in the league. But when you look at it statistically, restricting the sample to those 24 teams decreases the overall standard deviation only from 0.08989 to 0.08958.

    Now, if you also cut out those other four teams that are doing relatively poorly (just below the -0.5 mark on your graph), the SD decreases to 0.08377, and you're left with 20 teams with far less variation among them.
     
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  5. Oct 30, 2012 #125
    shouright

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    You were typing this just as I was doing the math. ;)
     
  6. Oct 30, 2012 #126
    jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    My eyebrow raiser last week was the falcons. You told me they are t as good as I think they are.

    I guess they are now? ;)
     
  7. Oct 30, 2012 #127
    shouright

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    Stringer I'm sorry man I totally screwed up on this. I was using the schedule strength column for part of this, instead of the team rating column. Actually the SD of the overall sample is 0.7104, and the Dolphins are only a half a standard deviation (0.5088) above the mean. Sorry about that. There's far less variation in your sample than I originally thought.

    Also, your team rating metric now correlates with win percentage at 0.66, up from the 0.61 last week. The mean winning percentage in the league right now is exactly .500, and the Dolphins are a third of a SD above the mean (0.344) in winning percentage.
     
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  8. Nov 7, 2012 #128
    Stringer Bell

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    Post Week-9:

    [table="class: grid"] [TR][td]RANK[/td][td]TEAM[/td][td]SOS[/td][td]RATING[/td][td]LAST[/td][td]CHANGE[/td][/tr] [tr][td]1[/td][td]San Francisco 49ers[/td][td]0.030269097[/td][td]1.371299214[/td][td]1[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]2[/td][td]Houston Texans[/td][td]-0.04263971[/td][td]1.281570332[/td][td]2[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]3[/td][td]Denver Broncos[/td][td]0.037648556[/td][td]1.235312589[/td][td]3[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]4[/td][td]Pittsburgh Steelers[/td][td]-0.051679284[/td][td]0.725232162[/td][td]4[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]5[/td][td]Green Bay Packers[/td][td]0.032411131[/td][td]0.612149971[/td][td]6[/td][td]1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]6[/td][td]Seattle Seahawks[/td][td]0.133020942[/td][td]0.547400273[/td][td]8[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]7[/td][td]Carolina Panthers[/td][td]0.017128903[/td][td]0.492262811[/td][td]13[/td][td]6[/td][/tr] [tr][td]8[/td][td]Atlanta Falcons[/td][td]-0.087433836[/td][td]0.485829427[/td][td]5[/td][td]-3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]9[/td][td]Detroit Lions[/td][td]0.01468969[/td][td]0.461334904[/td][td]12[/td][td]3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]10[/td][td]New England Patriots[/td][td]-0.025439615[/td][td]0.354705659[/td][td]9[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]11[/td][td]Chicago Bears[/td][td]-0.037997654[/td][td]0.276311313[/td][td]11[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]12[/td][td]Minnesota Vikings[/td][td]-0.007363726[/td][td]0.269938216[/td][td]7[/td][td]-5[/td][/tr] [tr][td]13[/td][td]Miami Dolphins[/td][td]-0.050172736[/td][td]0.185980699[/td][td]10[/td][td]-3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]14[/td][td]New York Giants[/td][td]0.042914076[/td][td]0.118493501[/td][td]15[/td][td]1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]15[/td][td]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/td][td]-0.120159422[/td][td]0.077814564[/td][td]20[/td][td]5[/td][/tr] [tr][td]16[/td][td]Baltimore Ravens[/td][td]-0.118155129[/td][td]-0.026609409[/td][td]19[/td][td]3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]17[/td][td]St. Louis Rams[/td][td]0.104621147[/td][td]-0.054000584[/td][td]18[/td][td]1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]18[/td][td]Washington Redskins[/td][td]0.044659643[/td][td]-0.165854953[/td][td]16[/td][td]-2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]19[/td][td]Dallas Cowboys[/td][td]0.112615342[/td][td]-0.233142013[/td][td]22[/td][td]3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]20[/td][td]New York Jets[/td][td]0.140485011[/td][td]-0.295248417[/td][td]24[/td][td]4[/td][/tr] [tr][td]21[/td][td]Arizona Cardinals[/td][td]0.090821489[/td][td]-0.304922739[/td][td]17[/td][td]-4[/td][/tr] [tr][td]22[/td][td]Oakland Raiders[/td][td]-0.02458201[/td][td]-0.330115057[/td][td]14[/td][td]-8[/td][/tr] [tr][td]23[/td][td]Cincinnati Bengals[/td][td]-0.011643845[/td][td]-0.382605143[/td][td]23[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]24[/td][td]Philadelphia Eagles[/td][td]0.006119898[/td][td]-0.392590926[/td][td]21[/td][td]-3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]25[/td][td]Indianapolis Colts[/td][td]-0.057709201[/td][td]-0.393624112[/td][td]28[/td][td]3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]26[/td][td]San Diego Chargers[/td][td]-0.210835098[/td][td]-0.518358095[/td][td]25[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]27[/td][td]Cleveland Browns[/td][td]-0.133946404[/td][td]-0.557193995[/td][td]27[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]28[/td][td]Tennessee Titans[/td][td]0.072213155[/td][td]-0.628123668[/td][td]26[/td][td]-2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]29[/td][td]New Orleans Saints[/td][td]-0.020180742[/td][td]-0.813246069[/td][td]31[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]30[/td][td]Buffalo Bills[/td][td]-0.035516773[/td][td]-0.846783829[/td][td]30[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]31[/td][td]Jacksonville Jaguars[/td][td]0.088604303[/td][td]-1.008108893[/td][td]29[/td][td]-2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]32[/td][td]Kansas City Chiefs[/td][td]-0.128942856[/td][td]-2.118682012[/td][td]32[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
     
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  9. Nov 7, 2012 #129
    ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Stringer, thanks for the update. Have you figured out what it is about your formula that has Carolina at #7 (ahead of teams like Atlanta, NE, Chicago, and NY Giants)?
     
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  10. Nov 7, 2012 #130
    oakelmpine

    oakelmpine New Member

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    Stringer really ? NE at 10 and Carolina at 7 ? Really ? :shifty:
     
  11. Nov 7, 2012 #131
    oakelmpine

    oakelmpine New Member

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    It's called dart throwing ;)
     
  12. Nov 7, 2012 #132
    ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    show some respect, man.
     
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  13. Nov 7, 2012 #133
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    They pass very efficiently (7.1 net YPA). That net YPA is better than ATL, NE, and CHI. The Giants are better passing the ball, but their defensive passing efficiency is bad, along with NEs.

    ETA: Even having said that, its probably true that the model overrates Carolina, even by just a little.
     
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  14. Nov 7, 2012 #134
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Stringer, given your latest ratings, how do you make sense of our loss at Indy using the variables in your model?
     
  15. Nov 7, 2012 #135
    Stringer Bell

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    Miami actually did a good job of passing the ball. But they weren't as good as Indy. Indy was more efficient passing the ball, so the outcome isn't surprising.
     
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  16. Nov 7, 2012 #136
    shouright

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    How efficient had Indy been before that game, given their rating using your model?
     
  17. Nov 7, 2012 #137
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Not very efficient overall. However I will say that they had been trending in the right direction. Theres been a steady improvement in Luck's performance every week thats similar to the improvement we've seen from Tannehill. So while they did outperform their average, I don't think its very surprising.

    Really the game came down to that one TY Hilton TD. It was the biggest play of the game for either team. If we break up that pass we likely win the game.
     
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  18. Nov 7, 2012 #138
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    How good had we been at defensive pass efficiency before the game?
     
  19. Nov 8, 2012 #139
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The Colts are destroying Jacksonville, BTW, and Andrew Luck is picking up right where he left off.

    If Andrew Luck has hit his stride and the Colts continue this kind of progression, it's entirely possible we one day look back on losing 23-20 at Indy as quite the accomplishment.
     
  20. Nov 8, 2012 #140
    VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    Yes Luck is indeed on fire right now.
     
  21. Nov 13, 2012 #141
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Post Week 10:

    [table="class: grid"] [TR][td]RANK[/td][td]TEAM[/td][td]SOS[/td][td]RATING[/td][td]LAST[/td][td]CHANGE[/td][/tr] [tr][td]1[/td][td]Denver Broncos[/td][td]0.044332457[/td][td]1.314938961[/td][td]3[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]2[/td][td]San Francisco 49ers[/td][td]0.03336015[/td][td]1.257022956[/td][td]1[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]3[/td][td]Houston Texans[/td][td]-0.02688383[/td][td]1.134697469[/td][td]2[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]4[/td][td]Seattle Seahawks[/td][td]0.090530934[/td][td]0.706589492[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]5[/td][td]Pittsburgh Steelers[/td][td]-0.106842353[/td][td]0.646536408[/td][td]4[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]6[/td][td]Green Bay Packers[/td][td]0.049296627[/td][td]0.636954513[/td][td]5[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]7[/td][td]Detroit Lions[/td][td]0.051148806[/td][td]0.405896835[/td][td]9[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]8[/td][td]Minnesota Vikings[/td][td]0.023139937[/td][td]0.341883706[/td][td]12[/td][td]4[/td][/tr] [tr][td]9[/td][td]Chicago Bears[/td][td]0.019879099[/td][td]0.301248229[/td][td]11[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]10[/td][td]Atlanta Falcons[/td][td]-0.104738948[/td][td]0.283911994[/td][td]8[/td][td]-2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]11[/td][td]Carolina Panthers[/td][td]0.082055468[/td][td]0.257523288[/td][td]7[/td][td]-4[/td][/tr] [tr][td]12[/td][td]New England Patriots[/td][td]-0.027803562[/td][td]0.241431246[/td][td]10[/td][td]-2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]13[/td][td]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/td][td]-0.125592423[/td][td]0.163970884[/td][td]15[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]14[/td][td]Baltimore Ravens[/td][td]-0.10938241[/td][td]0.119810312[/td][td]16[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]15[/td][td]St. Louis Rams[/td][td]0.136978164[/td][td]0.119565745[/td][td]17[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]16[/td][td]New York Giants[/td][td]0.029906314[/td][td]0.044757988[/td][td]14[/td][td]-2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]17[/td][td]Cincinnati Bengals[/td][td]-0.013033222[/td][td]-0.067259127[/td][td]23[/td][td]6[/td][/tr] [tr][td]18[/td][td]Miami Dolphins[/td][td]-0.070223308[/td][td]-0.086212285[/td][td]13[/td][td]-5[/td][/tr] [tr][td]19[/td][td]Washington Redskins[/td][td]0.057989602[/td][td]-0.144605948[/td][td]18[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]20[/td][td]Dallas Cowboys[/td][td]0.074935014[/td][td]-0.216855309[/td][td]19[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]21[/td][td]Arizona Cardinals[/td][td]0.094224913[/td][td]-0.29360027[/td][td]21[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]22[/td][td]Indianapolis Colts[/td][td]-0.111314279[/td][td]-0.315261082[/td][td]25[/td][td]3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]23[/td][td]Philadelphia Eagles[/td][td]-0.003765485[/td][td]-0.351042139[/td][td]24[/td][td]1[/td][/tr] [tr][td]24[/td][td]San Diego Chargers[/td][td]-0.156460751[/td][td]-0.369433005[/td][td]26[/td][td]2[/td][/tr] [tr][td]25[/td][td]Tennessee Titans[/td][td]0.063466299[/td][td]-0.436120529[/td][td]28[/td][td]3[/td][/tr] [tr][td]26[/td][td]New York Jets[/td][td]0.121031915[/td][td]-0.482253672[/td][td]20[/td][td]-6[/td][/tr] [tr][td]27[/td][td]Cleveland Browns[/td][td]-0.076194057[/td][td]-0.491522601[/td][td]27[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]28[/td][td]Oakland Raiders[/td][td]-0.025018933[/td][td]-0.541525418[/td][td]22[/td][td]-6[/td][/tr] [tr][td]29[/td][td]New Orleans Saints[/td][td]0.010575271[/td][td]-0.583926477[/td][td]29[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]30[/td][td]Buffalo Bills[/td][td]-0.022675637[/td][td]-0.751989697[/td][td]30[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]31[/td][td]Jacksonville Jaguars[/td][td]0.070415779[/td][td]-1.141377719[/td][td]31[/td][td]0[/td][/tr] [tr][td]32[/td][td]Kansas City Chiefs[/td][td]-0.064142809[/td][td]-1.740144968[/td][td]32[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
     
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  22. Nov 13, 2012 #142
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I don't gamble really anymore. I used to gamble a lot, and used models similar to this one. The model is good enough to beat the closing line. Generally speaking, if you can beat the closing line, you can make money. But NFL markets are so efficient, that it really isn't worth the time or effort trying to beat sides, especially when you consider the never ending hurdles that exist for gamblers in this country.

    If you are going to use any type of quantitative analysis for gambling purposes, it should be to find structural advantages such as correlated parlays, props, mis-priced points, arbitrage, etc.; or to bet into smaller markets such as WNBA.

    Regardless, online gambling is illegal for people in the US, and I do not condone it.
     
  23. Nov 13, 2012 #143
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Because it is illegal.
     
  24. Nov 27, 2012 #144
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Post week-12:

    [table="class: grid"] [TR][td]RANK[/td][td]TEAM[/td][td]SOS[/td][td]RATING[/td][td]LAST[/td][td]CHANGE[/td][/tr] [tr][td]1[/td][td]San Francisco 49ers[/td][td]-0.014527241[/td][td]1.523858446[/td][td]2[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]2[/td][td]Denver Broncos[/td][td]-0.024152716[/td][td]1.2380836[/td][td]1[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]3[/td][td]Houston Texans[/td][td]-0.048078515[/td][td]0.915196279[/td][td]3[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]4[/td][td]Seattle Seahawks[/td][td]0.059808221[/td][td]0.545052181[/td][td]4[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]5[/td][td]New England Patriots[/td][td]-0.051492151[/td][td]0.479298432[/td][td]12[/td][td]7[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]6[/td][td]Pittsburgh Steelers[/td][td]-0.077408922[/td][td]0.436736512[/td][td]5[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]7[/td][td]Green Bay Packers[/td][td]0.022425943[/td][td]0.410571929[/td][td]6[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]8[/td][td]Cincinnati Bengals[/td][td]-0.064618367[/td][td]0.348096842[/td][td]17[/td][td]9[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]9[/td][td]Washington Redskins[/td][td]-0.002449236[/td][td]0.30868725[/td][td]19[/td][td]10[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]10[/td][td]Carolina Panthers[/td][td]0.018934349[/td][td]0.296099576[/td][td]11[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]11[/td][td]Minnesota Vikings[/td][td]0.005370222[/td][td]0.260400751[/td][td]8[/td][td]-3[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]12[/td][td]Atlanta Falcons[/td][td]-0.122167291[/td][td]0.258433889[/td][td]10[/td][td]-2[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]13[/td][td]Detroit Lions[/td][td]0.060413546[/td][td]0.253494883[/td][td]7[/td][td]-6[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]14[/td][td]Baltimore Ravens[/td][td]-0.086632491[/td][td]0.212903723[/td][td]14[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]15[/td][td]New York Giants[/td][td]0.041096807[/td][td]0.13203364[/td][td]16[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]16[/td][td]St. Louis Rams[/td][td]0.063136324[/td][td]0.053545303[/td][td]15[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]17[/td][td]Chicago Bears[/td][td]0.044184996[/td][td]0.046732891[/td][td]9[/td][td]-8[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]18[/td][td]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/td][td]-0.072079976[/td][td]-0.057295825[/td][td]13[/td][td]-5[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]19[/td][td]Miami Dolphins[/td][td]-0.066159034[/td][td]-0.111378286[/td][td]18[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]20[/td][td]San Diego Chargers[/td][td]-0.089216369[/td][td]-0.328962661[/td][td]24[/td][td]4[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]21[/td][td]New York Jets[/td][td]0.119020756[/td][td]-0.381183572[/td][td]26[/td][td]5[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]22[/td][td]Cleveland Browns[/td][td]-0.026855499[/td][td]-0.411652959[/td][td]27[/td][td]5[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]23[/td][td]Dallas Cowboys[/td][td]0.028004288[/td][td]-0.419309917[/td][td]20[/td][td]-3[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]24[/td][td]Buffalo Bills[/td][td]-0.027806913[/td][td]-0.439576605[/td][td]30[/td][td]6[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]25[/td][td]Indianapolis Colts[/td][td]-0.09740598[/td][td]-0.466831176[/td][td]22[/td][td]-3[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]26[/td][td]Tennessee Titans[/td][td]0.004003328[/td][td]-0.529555619[/td][td]25[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]27[/td][td]Arizona Cardinals[/td][td]0.080168075[/td][td]-0.621489491[/td][td]21[/td][td]-6[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]28[/td][td]New Orleans Saints[/td][td]0.020437427[/td][td]-0.650350226[/td][td]29[/td][td]1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]29[/td][td]Oakland Raiders[/td][td]-0.038290754[/td][td]-0.722784939[/td][td]28[/td][td]-1[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]30[/td][td]Philadelphia Eagles[/td][td]-0.006090316[/td][td]-0.789454443[/td][td]23[/td][td]-7[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]31[/td][td]Jacksonville Jaguars[/td][td]0.035500528[/td][td]-0.96589655[/td][td]31[/td][td]0[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]32[/td][td]Kansas City Chiefs[/td][td]-0.003516288[/td][td]-1.584827223[/td][td]32[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
     
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  25. Nov 27, 2012 #145
    Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    64,618
    20,716
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Los Angeles, California, United States
    Looks about right.

    Seattle and Rams higher than I'd expect.

    Colts and Saints lower than I'd expect.
     
  26. Nov 27, 2012 #146
    Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    64,618
    20,716
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Los Angeles, California, United States
    Man the Chiefs are bad.
     
  27. Nov 27, 2012 #147
    shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
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    Dec 13, 2007
    How in God's name did the Redskins move up TEN spots?
     
  28. Nov 27, 2012 #148
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    I didn't do ratings for last week. The change is from two weeks ago.

    Having said that, the Redskins offensive efficiency over the last two games has been obscene.
     
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  29. Nov 27, 2012 #149
    shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
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    Do you realize that four of our last six games are against teams in the top five in your standings?

    New England twice, San Fran, and Seattle. Thank God the other two games are against weak teams at home.
     
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  30. Jan 6, 2013 #150
    shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I'd say the win against Seattle, combined with the expected wins against Jacksonville and Buffalo, constitutes a late-season moral victory. :)

    Any end-of-the-season update on your model, Stringer?
     
  31. Jan 6, 2013 #151
    Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Mar 22, 2008
    Sorry for the lack of updates. Haven't looked at this stuff lately but worth a look IMO. I will update it after this weekends games.

    Nice to see that a lot of the questions earlier in the season have worked themselves out. IIRC, people thought Denver and Seattle were too high, Atlanta too low.
     
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