The Jeff Ireland Discussion Thread

.......b/c of ONE game, a losing game at that. IMO it's significantly more important to have consistency paired with the ability to score rather than half a player's yards + all of his scores coming from 1 game.

No, respectfully, Hartline is NOT largely developing into a Nelson-type player, not unless you believe Hartline suddenly defied genetics in the offseason and became more athletic, grew an inch, gained 20 pounds of muscle, grew longer arms, gained stronger hands, gained the natural ability to attack the ball downfield and win those jump balls over DBs (including fades), and gained the strength and balance to avoid going down so easily (especially on quick passes).

Please don't confuse gaining yards & being a reliable route runner with suddenly developing rare, Jordy-like, physical talent.

Basically, if you take away Jordy's physical size, physical style of play, scoring ability, and his playmaking ability when the ball's in his hands, you'd have Brian Hartline, a solid possession receiver who can OCCASIONALLY pick up chunk yardage provided the coverage doesn't bracket him (which they almost never do).

 

I don't think that's moving goalposts, or however you like to put it.

Miami had 3 competent NFL receivers
Miami traded Marshall leaving us 2 competent NFL receivers.

Not obtaining that 3rd competent receiver was a mistake. Whether it was a Marshall-type talent or just a Meachem-type talent.

In fact, I think it's the other(your) side, in this specific case, who is trying to move goalposts to stay "correct"

 

now, you are moving the goal posts. How bout if we added a third receiver period? One capable of replacing either one of those guys in the starting lineup, instead of doing a fan promotion for one lucky fan to lineup as the third guy in the depth chart every week?

 

Well, of course there's still the issue of having a rookie QB who has an overall rating of 70.

 

That's not the way it was framed initially. Initially it was framed as though we had ZERO competent receivers.

Now that Hartline and Bess are looking so good, Ireland is still a "problem" for the same reason, however, because the lack of a replacement of Marshall left us without a third receiver.

What happened to the perception that Ireland sucks and needs to be fired because we have NO adequate receivers?

 

In fact, show me any other team that has a solid WR combo and I'll show you their 3rd WR target's numbers far eclipse Miami's 3rd WR numbers (Armstrong with 3 receptions for 9 yards

 

Well I was certainly never that guy.

And I can't seem to remember many posters discounting Bess and Hartline as adequate receivers. If there were these posters it couldn't have been more than 2 or 3. Could it?

 

I think what you're getting at is a pretty good point.

What you're seeing in the targeting is not very balanced. Hartline and Bess are taking up 54% of Ryan Tannehill's targets. That's unusually high for any pair of players on any passing attack. I'm a little bit familiar with these percentages and in Green Bay nobody generally was above 20%, as an example. But Miami's got one guy who is at 31% which is already nigh on unheard of even compared with someone like a Brandon Marshall, and then the other guy is still at 23% which is higher than you generally ever saw in Green Bay as a an example.

You can say...well that's just because they're so GOOD. I'm not so sure about that. Bess is putting up about 9.3 to 9.6 yards per attempt. I say 9.3 to 9.6 because if you exclude that Arizona game he's only down to 9.3 but if you include it he's up to 9.6, so he's actually pretty consistent that way. That's decent for a WR. It's not elite or anything. It's decent, somewhere in between top third and top fourth.

Hartline is putting up 10.7 which is elite. However, exclude the Arizona game and he's at 8.4 which is lower half. Hell if you just take out that one busted coverage 80 yard touchdown (which to me is akin to winning the lottery, in terms of the statistical boon)...and he's at 9.2 which again is slightly above mediocre.

What you end up with is a picture where these guys are at. I sure as hell think Brian Hartline is closer to a 9.2 than a 10.7 in terms of YPA. Yeah he hit the lotto when Kerry Rhodes inexplicably abandoned his safety duties and jumped on the wrong man on that crossing pattern. But there's no way he should be getting 31% of the targets nor do I think it's healthy for the passing game for him to be accounting for that much. In a Green Bay offense where he's getting targeted about 20% of his snaps then he's producing 916 yards in a season based on the 9.2 estimate, and Davone Bess is producing 953 yards in a season based on the 9.6 estimate. And neither of them with very many touchdowns.

 

Ireland, to his credit, made the right call in letting Bell walk.

 

The griping about the No. 3 receiver is getting a little silly. We don't use a 3rd WR much. Not every team uses a bunch of receivers, including some of the teams with the league's better passing games. The Chargers' non-starting WRs have caught 9 passes. The Patriots' non-starting receivers have 12 receptions. The Saints' non-starting WRs have caught 9 passes. Atlanta's non-starting receivers have 11 receptions.

Where are we suffering from a lack of a great 3rd WR? We haven't had an unusual number of coverage sacks where Bess and Hartline couldn't get open. We are solidly 12th in 3rd down conversion percentage. It really just isn't as big of an issue as a lot of people seem to want to make it out to be.

 

I'm not sure if you mean yards per target when you reference YPA for WRs? I see Hartline as 9.7 YPT. 9.2 YPT would be in the top 25 for WRs, from what I see.

 

The WR position (or any offensive skill position for that matter) is more than just about gaining yards and getting open. Each time they touch the ball represents an opportunity to go above and beyond by either breaking a big play or scoring on their own merit. We've seen how this works first hand with Reggie Bush. Minnesota sees this from Harvin & Simpson, Pitt from Wallace & Brown, NY from Nicks & Cruz, GB from Jordy & Jennings, and so on.

That's why those guys are called playmakers. They take an ordinary situation and allow it to be extraordinary, which in turn can change the outcome of a game in one fell swoop. Having Bess & Hartline on the field as our top targets removes this aspect of the game. It decreases our margin of error b/c we're forced to be more reliant upon longer drives, makes us more dependent upon the kicking game, makes us less balanced in the redzone, and places more stress on the rest of the team to play at a consistently higher level for all 60 minutes, 16 games a year (including Reggie Bush who will feel more pressure to look for the homerun more often than he should).

To use an analogy, receivers are no different than buying a fast food chain or retail store. You can either maximize that space by having it full of menu items/merchandise or you can limit your profit potential (production) by leaving half the menu/store empty. The combination of Hartline & Bess is like buying a McDonalds and only putting 79 cent cheeseburgers on the menu.

 

Armstrong and Naanee have been targeted 14 times. New England's non-starting WRs have been targeted 18 times (in more pass attempts). San Diego's non-starting WRs have been targeted 12 times. The Saints non-starting Wrs have been targeted 16 times (in many more pass attempts). As miniscule as those differences are (even putting aside the differences in pass attempts), it may just be that Brady, Brees and Rivers are simply better at this stage of their careers at finding the open 3rd WR than Tannehill has been in his first 5 NFL games.

 

And yet, the combination of Hartline and Bess has produced more yards per pass route run and more big play receptions (20+ yards) than just about any other WR tandem in the league.

 

Great post.

to add to it: where will all those missing touchdowns come from when not resulting from our top two, heavily targeted receivers considering someone has to pull the slack? Is it fair to ask our TEs & ground game to carry the scoring weight by telling them, "Ok guys, Bess & Hartline helped get us here; now it's on you to punch it in"? More importantly, is it remotely possible for them to carry the scoring weight when defenses are well aware of Bess & Hartline's deficiency inside scoring range and, as such, can focus more attention on stopping the ground game we're left trying to lean on?

 

I suppose you could consider it "yards per target" but I consider it yards per attempt. I'm showing 514 yards for Hartline on 48 attempts which is 10.7, however when you back out the 80 yard play it drops to 9.2 which is about 40th percentile based on full season numbers amongst starters from a year ago.

 

Exactly, my quibble about the #3 wr is more that no one else is filling the production void.

Gaffney is sort of low hanging fruit, but involving Reggie B in the passing game will likely be more productive.

Bengals were surprised when he split out wide and used TO's to adjust.

 

To me the issue isn't so much about #3 and #4 wide receivers as about #3 and #4 receivers. That can be anyone, tight ends, backs, anyone. It's a fact that 54% of your targets going to two guys is rare in the NFL and there's probably a reason for that.

I suppose there are times that kind of imbalance is OK when you have an unusually good pair of receivers, like when Welker and Gronkowski accounted for 57% of Brady's aimed targets last year, but I don't think Hartline and Bess are talented enough to keep carrying that kind of load while producing a good offense.

Everyone loves what Ryan Tannehill's doing. He's so ahead of where he should be as a rookie. Most of his picks aren't his fault and he only doesn't have TD passes because the Dolphins prefer to run it in. Everyone love what Reggie Bush is doing. They love what Bess and Hartline are doing, I mean after all they're two of the top producing receivers in the game today.

How does that add up to a 19 point per game offense?

 

Ireland needs to call Bill and offer one of our thirds for Welker. Now. Instantly gives us the crucial threat we need and makes Harline and Bess better. As much as like Bush and Miller, our running game only seems to work when we get a lead and wear down the team's DL. I don't forsee that happening often.

 

You forgot to remove everyone else's best catch and best game in making those comparisons.

 

I got 20.6 points per game offense. Which according to pro-footballreference is 19th in the NFL.

 

Did you remove everyone else's best play from a year ago and recalculate?

 

What happened to fire Ireland because we have no adequate QB, RG, RT, WLB, SS, FS?

We've come along way in a short time, I'm not expecting a confession though.

 

Very good point and it illustrates two things, I think. Miami has to develop a legitimate red zone target. I liked the two point play to lane against the Cardinals and hope they start to use him more the same way. One of our tightends needs to step up, because none of our WR's are go up and get it type of players.

But we have had some beautiful drives that got inside the five we finished off with runs--which takes away from RT's TD count.

 

Hmmm...I'm looking HERE, and am seeing 514 yds on 53 targets.

 

Oh no. They're gonna jam that square peg in the round hole till they're blue in the face.

 

But what really is the production void you are referring to. We are getting 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is pretty solid. The last 2 games, Tannehill's YPA is around 9.5 which is great. It's not surprising that he might not have been optimally efficient in his first 3 NFL starts.

 

I sure hope there are some quality WR/TEs in the draft, it'll drive down the price for FAs, give Irish more flexibility with his draft strategy, and speed our ascent to the top of the division. I dunno how many games we win this year and to a certain extent it's irrelevant. We're not far away from having a very good team, it's only been 5 games but I'm pretty confident about that.

 

Devery Henderson alone has 21 targets for the Saints, Camarillo has 5 and Morgan has 7.
Eddie Royal has 18 targets for the Chargers

And Armstrong and Naanee have 14 targets combined.

These stats are from ESPN.com. Not realy sure where you're getting your numbers from.

 

Miami's trouble with getting touchdowns through the air when they are in the redzone has a lot more to do with Ryan Tannehill's ability to pass the ball when the field is compressed than it has to do with any lack of ability with our wide receivers. No, our receivers aren't the best fade targets, but there are more ways to score on a pass in the redzone than a fade route.

Ryan Tannehill is developing faster than many experts thought he would, but the one area where he is still below average at at this point in time is his ability to pass the ball when the field is compressed. Miami could use his legs more, but the coaches are probably intentionally not doing that and are essentially forcing him to become a better passer and not rely on his legs in those situations.

 

I'm using PFF which does a good job weeding out stuff like throwaways, tipped passes and other "non-aimed" balls, whereas some services like the one you listed will track a ball to a target even though it was clearly a throwaway into the stands, for instance. PFF's numbers are cleaner and therefore safer for use with smaller sample sizes.

 

Well, it may be Super Bowl here we come when Tannehill is fully developed. We have one of the league's better running games, it's best run defense, a pass defense that, as shown, has been playing pretty well, and a few receivers that are producing at a pretty high level even with the rookie QB. Those are Super Bowl ingredients if you mix it up with an elite QB and Tannehill has shown some signs of potentially being one.

 

Because we don't have one. We tried using Naanee in the first game and on his lone target he stopped his route allowing for an INT. On his lone target against ARZ he attempted to give the game away by fumbling.

And not every offense uses 3 WR and 4 WR sets. But based on what I've seen from Philbin's teams and Sherman's teams in the past, they do

And all of those teams you just mentioned have over 100% more production out of their 3rd WR option than Miami who has 4 receptions for 14 yards.

Not to mention the Patriots, Saints, and Chargers all have Hall of Fame caliber TEs. No disrespect to Fasano, but...

 

I agree with this. The way it is discussed around here you'd think the fade pass is the only way to throw for a TD.

I think Tannehill will get better as a red zone passer. We've missed a few TD opportunities on some drops in the end zone, but they had nothing to do with the WRs not being able to get open in the end zone.

 

7 points came from a punt return TD.

 

aw, to make that calculation for every team to see where the 19 points per game stacks up would take WAY too long.

 

I agree that Tannehill has left some TDs on the field while in the red zone. I'd also say that that his WRs aren't creating separation, nor are they scoring TDs from outside the redzone with their (lack of) YAC.

 

We don't know that it is because we "don't have one" as opposed to by design. Coming into the season I felt the best offense for this team would be ground-based but to take advantage of the receiving ability of the "running game guys" -- Bush, Fasano, Clay, Lane, Thomas, etc. Stick to 2 WR sets where the personnel leaves a credible runnign threat and use the no huddle to force the defense to keep its run defense personnel on the field. That is largely what we have done. We haven't thrown as much as I expected to Bush, Fasano, Clay, etc. but we have stuck largely to the 2 WR sets.

 

12 points didn't come because the PK keeps missing. 19th is 19th just like 2-3 is 2-3.

 

It's ironic, and perhaps symbolic of the pointlessness of discussion between parties that are already dug-in, that ability near the goal line is one area that I actually see as a strength for Ryan Tannehill.

I think he made some mistakes early, in that first game against the Texans. A little hesitation here or there, miscommunication, poor throw, etc. But after that I've had much more to complain about with our receivers units helping him near the goal line than I've had his speed or decision making down there.