Is Brian Hartline a Deep Threat?

They practice turning the ball over, such as forcing fumbles. You'd be surprised how many teams don't.

 

Which is my point in that it's not entirely random.

 

I wouldn't say its entirely random either.

 

Right, but statisitically the more fumbles you cause the more likely you are to recover. Of course there will be anomalies, as I know the Dolphins had one of the lowest recovery rates of any team ever last year. I can't find the article now (I think it was on Grantland) but someone layed it out.

To your point though, the Dolphins only have 2 Forced Fumbles this year. (zero recoveries)

 

Not to bombard people with statistics, but I just noticed some very recent work on fumbles and recoviers by Chase Stuart that is rather comprehensive:

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-definitive-analysis-of-offensive-fumbles/

 

I've said this for years about WCO WRs... Sure, Jerry Rice was an exception, but guys like Jennings, Sharpe, Jordy Nelson, Driver, MacLin, DeSean Jackson...all guys that are talented, but are they considered as good as they are because of the system they're in or would they be as good in a vertical offense ?? I'm not sure...however, the one issue I have with Hartline's stat line is the lack of scoring...that, to me, makes the difference between an elite guy and just another guy at the WR position...how many scores can you rack up...that was my biggest complaint with Marshall....all the production you could want, but not enough scoring...

 

I guess one of us should comment on his blog and ask him where he came up with that 40 time. I nominate you.
I read somewhere that Clayton could stand next to an average table which would be about 3-3.5 feet high and flat footed, jump up on to that able. So, if true, he had some exceptional lower body explosion, and that does not correlate to such a pedestrian 40 time for someone his size, IMO.

 

He's a semi deep threat as long as teams continue not putting coverage over top of him as opposed the guys below.

Respectfully, Shou, saying Hartline is a better deep threat than the above guys is like saying a batter with a .400 average is a better hitter than some of the league's best despite the pitcher being moved back 10 feet. Hartline so far has had a coverage advantage that the above receivers typically don't see. It's apples to oranges.

 

yeah so what, if people decide to play him that you still have to put up the numbers, its unreal how people in here can't give credit to hartline...because he is only performing that way of certain coverages...sometimes a scheme is dictating coverage too....like he can only get open on double moves.....wtf i don't care if he gets open deep on a quadruple move.....

 

They're good b/c they're good. The offense doesn't take away from their actual talent level. Philly's offense didn't make Maclin a 1st rounder or Jackson one of the fastest and most explosive players in the NFL; their talent did. Green Bay's offense didn't make Nelson a high 2nd rounder, Jennings one of the few small school receivers to go in the 2nd round, and the playmaking Cobb a 2nd rounder; their talent did. What separates those guys from simply being a product of their offensive system, as opposed to Hartline, is that they use their talent to take it one step further by creating on their own, scoring more, and occasionally doing so even when more attention is focused on them. IMO their system allows their natural ability to come through and make plays.

 

Plus Miss Jones.

 

of course, we have the coach now....

 

You mean like in 2010 when our ground game was the worst in the NFL to where defenses didn't have to pay it as much attention?

Why do you think his "vertical presence" didn't happen? Do you believe he suddenly became a great vertical threat despite not being one during the previous 3 years?

Again, the 80 yard TD was from busted coverage..... or are you gonna tell me that he's such a vertical threat that everyone stayed with Davonne Bess on the deep cross b/c they knew they had no chance on staying step for step with Brian The Bolt Hartline? If he's such a vertical threat, why does he need double moves, trick plays like flea-flickers, and deep crossing routes to get open deep?.... and why does he rarely finish them off with a TD rather than getting caught from behind?

 

and because the 80 yarder was from busted coverage , maybe we should just count it as a 20 yarder then or what ?, he has a knack for getting open deep no matter what

 

That's the thing though. His vertical presence did happen. He showed the ability to get behind the defense many times. Henne, on the other hand, had very very poor downfield accuracy and was unable to hit Hartline consistently.

 

It does matter when the discussion is about his actual "vertical ability". The 80 yarder was b/c of the play call and busted coverage. There was no knack for getting open during it; he was completely ignored b/c everyone stayed with Davonne Bess. What's that say about his "threat" ability when both DBs stay on Bess and let Hartline go? What's it say when safeties rarely show him any attention over the top? If he had a true knack for getting open deep he'd have more than 6 TDs in his career and he'd be able to do it on his own more often rather than by play design. If Hartline has a knack for getting open deep, then so does nearly half the NFL with all due respect.

 

so we just then call it a 20 yarder then because it was blown coverage ? leading the league in 40 yard plays this year, drawing interference penalties deep on a regular basis, i meant also that he has a knack for getting open deep in general not on that play, well safeties won't underestimate him now , we see how it will unfold

 

... and how many of his vertical catches would've still happened if defenses actually had a safety over top of him?

I'm looking at 3 main things when assessing his vertical ability:
1. What do our opponents think about his vertical ability?
2. What do our own offensive coordinators think of his vertical ability?
3. How many game-changing big play TDs does he score?

The conclusion: When safeties pay you little attention, when your own OCs bring out the bag of tricks or utilizes play design to help assist you getting open deep, and when you score once every 354 yards (1 per 22.3 catches), then that's not a solid indication of a vertical threat.

Then on the other hand you a guy like Mike Wallace who averages a TD every 6.9 receptions who can either take a short pass and blow by and entire defense for a 53 yard TD or he can run by coverage for a 50+ yard TD even when the defense thinks they're prepared for it.



On this first video, Hartline would've been tackled half a dozen times. How many yards and scores do we (and Hartline) leave on the field b/c our receivers can't make plays with the ball in their hands? Hartline caught 2 of these drags across the middle vs Zona and made not one person miss.

[video=youtube;oPTFusnXDso]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPTFusnXDso&feature=related[/video]


.... and how often in 3+ years have you seen Hartline blow by coverage like the below clips (no fakes, double moves, trickery, etc) to where the QB just has to lay it out there and let him run under it?
[video=youtube;bDdr6I-j1lw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDdr6I-j1lw&feature=related[/video]

[video=youtube;MJ1n_QKfL6o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ1n_QKfL6o[/video]

The Ford one was in OT verse Brandon Flowers, with Flowers playing well off to specifically try and take away the deep play to Jacoby.... the ball is even thrown with Flowers on top of Ford by a few steps but Jacoby destroys him over the last 15 yards to make the play, and it's an off-thrown pass to boot. When receivers can make up as much ground as true vertical threats like Ford and Wallace can (as well as track the ball the way they can), it can make your QB look a lot better b/c there's no need for pinpoint placement.

 

you really have to think if this is really a dolphins board.....fans from the same team making arguments that a player from OUR team is just lucky to catch passes deep because of blown coverage, no safety help or because of double moves.....sad

 

The funny thing is they're wrong. Hartline has beaten his man deep without the benefit of a double move or blown coverage.

 

Was Jerry Rice a deep threat? Hartline is faster than Rice was. Look it up. Hartline is fast enough to get behind a defense several times a game, He's been doing it ever since he got here. Does that constitute a "deep threat" in the classic sense? No. When I think deep threat I think of a guy with enough speed to blow the top off the coverage on any given play. Hartline is not that guy. Hartline is a receiver who runs great routes, has great hands and has enough speed to occasionally get behind a defender.

He is not a #1 receiver but he is a great #2. I love having the guy on the team and I have never understood some of the criticism he has received. He is clearly our #1 this year and judging from the 1st 4 games he's doing a great job. I hope he keeps it up, but we'll see.

 

Don't you know better than to let facts get in the way of a good argument?

 

please. I like Hartline a lot, but it gets quite annoying watching fans like yourself try to make him out to be something he isn't to where some of us have to actually argue against him. Just b/c I'm a Dolphin fan doesn't mean I need to throw on the rose-colored glasses and ignore reality. 6 TDs. SIX TOUCHDOWNS in 3+ years. That's not the sign of a playmaker or vertical threat. He's a great possession receiver but he is not a legitimate vertical threat. So I guess b/c Tanneyhill threw for 430 yards that he's already become one of the NFL's best passers in just his 4th game?

 

The day Hartline can actually MAKE PLAYS downfield like Jerry Rice is the day I'll buy you a new car. Rice was the ultimate possession receiver AND a playmaker. Hartline is only a very good possession receiver, minus the playmaker. Please don't confuse the two, and please don't think Hartline has as much vertical ability as Rice or any 4.5 vertical threat simply b/c they run a similar 40. On the football field, Rice was MUCH faster than he timed, and I do NOT recall Rice getting caught from behind the way Hartline routinely does.

He doesn't have the speed to outpace a DB when the coverage is tight; he doesn't have the high point ability to outplay a DB like Jordy Nelson and many others can (but he has gotten a little better at it); and he doesn't possess an above average ability to track off target throws the way you'd want from a vertical threat. Basically, if the play design or double move doesn't work, then the play isn't happening, and even if his double move is effective it requires a more accurate throw b/c Hartline can't cover as much ground as true speed threats can, where as most cornerbacks can.

 

So? I've seen Michael Tolbert juke a defender but you don't see me calling him elusive ala Barry Sanders.

 

you know there is also QB play involved to hit a deep ball...on of henne's forte's....i'm not making him better than he is, but why has everything put under a microscope, he is catching balls deep, i don't care how he does it, but he is doing it, maybe the lights come on, maybe its just the system...but why ever its happening who cares as long as he comes up with them

 

Never said that Hartline is half the receiver Jerry Rice was. The point was entirely about speed and that you do not have to have 4.3 speed to get behind a defense. Jerry didn't and Brian doesn't.

 

That's all I care about, too, but I don't want to unfairly elevate him to elite status just b/c of a great game. If he can continue to have 100+ yard/1 TD games AND us still have an effective run game, then I'll be extremely happy, but right now I don't like the fact that we can be made 1 dimensional b/c our passing game (despite 400+ yards vs Zona) currently doesn't scare anyone b/c it's not efficient and doesn't score points. If I'm a DC, I'd be daring us to throw 40+ times and give up 400 yards if I know the passing game is both turnover prone and lacks the personnel to stick it in the endzone. We got a ton of yards in the air vs Zona, but less than 70 came on their side of the field, with a completion percentage under 50.

 

yes & everywhere else on the field too

 

Chris Givens just used a double move to get open deep and make a long TD catch. I guess since he used a double move he isn't a true deep threat either though.

 

I agree, but 4.5 guys who are great vertical threats and can get behind a defense possess natural talents and/or sheer physical size that allow them a greater ability to complete the throw after it's left the QB's hand. Hartline is doing a better job of playing the ball downfield, but he's still leaps and bounds behind Jordy Nelson at it IMO. The offensive design will certainly help him convert more of these plays, but it won't give him special talent to suddenly become a legitimate playmaker.

Hartline is what he is--- a very good & typically reliable possession receiver with some versatility who can occasionally get you chunk yardage but isn't a scorer who can create on his own.

 

Chris Givens is also regarded as the Rams' fastest player, so in his case there's nothing wrong with having an extra tool in his belt.

Notice his double move resulted in a TD.

 

I believe I did say it was a TD catch. Nice double move to get by a marginal corner like Greg Toler.

 

Hartline has done it consistently.

 

yup. all the more impressive considering he's a rookie in just his 5th game.