The Objective Case for Jeff Ireland

If the part I bolded is true, that's what gets Jeff Ireland off the hook here, because that means Bill Parcells took Jake Long instead of Matt Ryan.

I suspect Stephen Ross knows this, and is what's responsible for Ross's keeping Ireland around to let him show what he can do absent Parcells.

 

At the very least, this study has proven too flawed to be taken seriously.

The study biases toward 2008 and 2009 as opposed to 2010 and 2011, which is in itself questionable unless specifically disclosed (which was not the case with the study's author). If you believe that 2008 and 2009 were more important in a comparison of team drafting prowess, for whatever reason, then I suppose the Career AV sum totals could be set up the way they are.

However, when you add the further step of making the CarAV totals subject to division by Chart Value, that's where the model becomes flawed beyond the point of use. Teams are handed benefits and handicaps not even according to which years they showed particular skill in drafting, but according to which particular years they had more draft ammunition. Skill has nothing to do with it. Teams with the exact same draft prowess would be given a boost because they had more ammunition in 2008 as opposed to 2010.

That's where the model turns from quirky to completely invalid.

If you eliminate the idea of "per Chart Value" analysis altogether, you have a model that is not necessarily statistically invalid, but a little quirky and perhaps not as informative as you'd like it to be, and it would be up to the study author to disclose that the model quadruple weights 2008 as opposed to 2011, as an example...which again, did not happen in the original post.

 

That and the flaws in the "AV" stat which seem to over-lever the stat toward whether you played as opposed to whether you played particularly well.

 

Those killing Ireland must be too young to remember what a nightmare Rick Spielman was for the Dolphins. What's Spielman doing now? Struggling to build a team around a great all-purpose running back. Déjà vu all over again.

 

I am hardly confused.

The GM picks the talent, and builds the team for the HC to manage the roster. Any other explanation is a futile attempt to spin our ****ty GM's record.

 

This is where neither you nor Ireland get it.

Trying to find a franchise QB in the 2nd round, or taking 4 damn years to pick one in the 1st, is indeed undervaluing the most important position in sports.

And it is not irrelevant, because how can we trust a guy who gets the most important thing wrong for 4 years?

 

What QBs should Ireland have taken in the first round over the last 4 drafts?

 

Because you can't actually magically wish a player into existence who isn't there?

There's a legitimate agreement that Ireland should have taken Matt Ryan over Jake Long. I don't really agree with it, but it's not unreasonable. Beyond that, what exactly should he have done that would have worked in terms of pre-draft ratings and post-draft reality to get a ~=*FRANCHISE*=~ quarterback?

 

Spielman's big white whale to me was always the QB position. But where people like to stick Jeff Ireland in the same box as Spielman as far as being potentially overruled by someone else in various drafts, Spielman never had that authority written into his contract until 2004, whereas Ireland's had it the whole time.

Spielman was really good at keeping records of exactly who he'd have picked and when, as well as how and for whom Dave Wannstedt overruled him. The best examples were always Anquan Boldin and Drew Brees. Spielman supposedly really had it bad for Anquan Boldin but Wannstedt insisted they get a nickel linebacker whom Spielman had rated I believe at least one round lower. And in 2001, he wanted to select Drew Brees and I believe there was even a scout in the room that swore the Dolphins will never again find this caliber QB available as late as they were picking, but Wannstedt supposedly hated the signal that drafting a 1st round QB would have sent the team (dreaded "rebuilding" word), and so he chose a nickel corner Jamar Fletcher.

But to me Spielman's big issue became riskiness in 2004. He finally got the keys but he felt the pressure to hit a homerun in a short period of time, so he kept swinging for the fences and predictably struck out.

 

I'm with you. There was nothing there in those drafts.

However, coming back to 2008, the team was coming off a 1-15 season and picking first overall. If there's a quarterback who's widely considered top-five material, you'd better have a good reason not to take him.

Really it suggests that Parcells pulled the trigger on that, because I strongly doubt any first-year GM with no track record of success (Ireland) would have the stones to bypass a QB on a 1-15 team. He's going to go to the well and make that choice IMO, just because he knows his job would be riding on it.

Parcells, however, had his aura and mystique to carry him through, so he was able to get fancy and think he could pull a rabbit out of his hat with Henne in the 2nd round.

 

I am a critic of Jeff Ireland. I think he is too much of a penny pincher, overthinks his moves quite often, and otherwise drafts not to lose. But I don't think he undervalues the quarterback position at all. His first year here we got Pennington in free agency and drafted Chad Henne in the second. Things had not been as optimistic here since 1999.

I believe Ireland really did think that he 'hit' on Chad Henne. And he may have at the time, but suspect coaching did not help Chad's cause.

There are really only two franchise type QBs Ireland has passed on in four years. The first was Matt Ryan, but he got a Pro Bowl LT, which is a very nice consolation prize. The second was maybe Andy Dalton. They're simply rare and four years is not a terribly long period of time.

Rumor was that he likes Locker and Ponder too, but both went before us. The jury is out on TJ Yates and Nick Foles' ability to lead a franchise, so I don't hold that against him (especially Foles, since he had already drafted Tannehill).

 

Jeff Ireland was the one that stated that Jake Long was the #1 player on his board since long before he'd gone from Dallas to Miami. "For over a year" were his words, I believe.

Dave Hyde once told me he knows for a fact that Bill Parcells lost a lot of sleep over whether to draft Matt Ryan or Jake Long.

I don't think Jeff Ireland lost any sleep. I think he knew who he wanted.

 

Right, but one of those was coming off a 1-15 record. It's pretty grandiose IMO to think you have the expertise to right that ship with a 2nd-round QB.

Again, however, that was probably Parcells.

 

I don't agree with that. I think "widely considered" is the first thing you say to your boss when you draft that guy and he doesn't pan out. That way you cover your *** by showing how the other guys in your profession thought the same thing about that QB, and none of them would've done any better.

If you're accused of an ethics violation as a lawyer, for example, the first thing you're going to have to do to cover your *** is to show that most other "reasonable" lawyers would've done the same thing in the same situation. That's the kind of protection you can get from taking a widely sought-after QB on a team that needs one.

 

Also Joe Flacco. And Josh Freeman, though I suppose there are many that are now thinking he's not as good as he looked in 2010.

And who knows if there were trade opportunities in 2010 (Sam Bradford), 2009 (Matt Stafford) or 2011 (Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder). Also should be mentioned that Michael Vick was available for anyone to pick up and the Dolphins weren't interested. Jay Cutler was traded for by the Bears while Ireland was the GM here in Miami. Matt Cassel traded teams as well, though whether you criticize him for not getting involved in that, up to the individual.

Not criticizing him for any individual one of these guys. Just doing the full accounting.

 

Vick was the only really mind-boggling one of the bunch for me, as we were full on Wildcat at the time.

I'll give you Freeman, I like him a lot. I'm not as sold on Flacco, other than he's what an average prospect can top out at with an excellent supporting cast.

But the Bradford, Stafford hesitation (for trades after the draft I imagine?) is simply being adverse to expensive, injured players which was beat into his skull by Parcells. I don't think he would mortgage the draft for Newton (or anyone). Obviously all wrong in hindsight, but I find it hard to disagree very strongly at the same time (especially remembering the cavalier use of picks in the Wanny days). I suspect he was genuinely surprised by where Locker and Ponder went, odds were that one of the two would be there.

It's a big 'eh' from me. He drafted very two promising guys in four years. I think there are better cases to made against Ireland other than he just doesn't 'get' the QB position.

I believe his strategy is to build a strong offensive line and defense first, have a promising young QB on the roster, hopefully have him learn from a cagey vet, and go from there. I find little to disagree with in principle.

Now in practice, our offensive line is crap, our defense is crap, and we cut the vet. That's where I differ with Ireland.

 

A few exceptions over 40 years is not a reason to fail to play the percentages.

Other teams have had the balls to trade up and take a shot at their guy. Failure to do so is more evidence of failing to properly value the position.

Others have addressed the Ryan thing....

 

Their guy? Ireland got his guy and didn't have to trade pics to do it. You don't move up for a QB, you move up for the QB you think will be the one.

 

I would just like to point out that a great deal of people on this board declared Matt Ryan dead or utterly average at the end of last season.

With a good preseason, Julio Jones, an eroding running game and a lot of fantasy football hype, he is suddenly franchise material again.

 

Outside of Parcells' Pat White & John Nailbone picks, I liked the '09 draft.
I hated the Turner pick, but then again he fit the mold of the big, physical possession-style receiver for Henning's run-oriented offense.
3 defensive starters (4 if you include Wake) and 1 offensive starter.

If we instead grabbed Barwin at 2a (whom I know we were interested in and brought in for a workout), that would've been an outstanding draft and amazing defensive turnaround from just 1 offseason. That's why I don't have a problem with Ireland staying on for 2013 b/c, if he doesn't have to worry about drafting a QB or a WR (if we grab a proven one in FA), then he can kick his defensive prowess into full gear again like he's done here once and in Dallas in '05. He's essentially 2 for 3 in a big way when it comes to focusing an offseason on defense. I have no problem letting him try and make it 3 for 4. To me, it seems like people are taking this aspect of Ireland for granted. I hear posters complain about not taking JPP as if that one decision nullifies everything else that's been done to turn the defense around.

3 offseasons with Ireland focusing on defense [or scouting it] netted:
Dline: Odrick, Jay Ratliff, Chris Canty, Marcus Spears
Pass rush: Ware, Wake (Ireland is the reason Dallas drafted Ware)
L​inebacker: Dansby, Misi, Burnett
Corners: SS, Vontae, Carroll
Safety: Clemons, Jones

That would easily vie for the NFL's #1 defense.
Just sayin, the guy isn't as talentless as people try to paint him as. Again, I feel this aspect is being taken for granted. Right now we hopefully have the HC, QB, Oline, running backs, and tight ends of the future. Ireland can give the offense its playmaking WR, and then we let him go to town on defense.

 

Truthfully I have always candidly stated that Jeff Ireland's issues are not pure drafting nor pure talent evaluation. I don't think he's much better than a 4 out of 10 on either of those fronts, to be honest. I think if a study were to be constructed that were not so intrinsically flawed and mis-executed, that's about where I would expect him to have come out...in the 16 to 20 range. If you're in that range and you get lucky and the right opportunity comes your way, you can still end up with a winning team, with good coaching.

But I do think there is a systemic under-valuing of the QB position with Ireland. Not everyone is going to be like Nick Saban and actually have had a shot at two franchise QBs during a short tenure, having blown both opportunities...so I get what you're saying with Ireland not having blown very many proven opportunities on the QB front. But it doesn't take a whole series of decisions to show a little bit of lack of prioritization. Based on what I have seen come directly out of Jeff's mouth, as well as the manner in which he's stated these things, but also based on things that I have been told by people a little closer to the situation, I do not believe Ireland was on board with Matt Ryan at all, and I think to this day he's still a bit obstinate about that decision in thinking Jake Long was the best call. I fully believe that Matt Ryan versus Jake Long was an open question for Bill Parcells, but in order to go with Matt Ryan he would have had to figure out a way to overrule the man with final say authority in his contract.

But it's also little things. Chad Pennington wasn't planned. Chad Pennington fell into their laps. The PLAN was Josh McCown, John Beck and Chad Henne. Then the plan was Chad Henne, Chad Pennington and Pat White. Then the plan was Chad Henne, Chad Pennington and Tyler Thigpen. Then the plan was Carson Palmer if possible, or perhaps Jake Locker or Christian Ponder but only if they fell in their laps, then it became Chad Henne, Matt Moore and Pat Devlin. The whole thing when looked at has the look of being very slow-footed, reluctance to come off known quantities (Chad Henne, Chad Pennington), and bargain hunting. The thing about criticizing them for not making an aggressive mistake with the position (such as putting all their eggs in a Jake Locker trade) kind of assumes that they had perfect knowledge that it would be a bad idea, when in fact for all we know had the Titans made the call to pass on Jake Locker then he's a Miami Dolphin today at #15 overall.

I think a big part of Ireland's issue is a lack of thoroughness and direction in the way he puts together a roster. I think he's a little biased toward his own picks, doesn't hedge enough, and when he does go out and gamble, he's been a bad gambler. Sometimes that's just make-or-miss. The other issue is that he just rubs too many people the wrong way. That's people in the organization, people not in the organization, everyone. Confidence factor when it comes to other people believing in him, is pretty low...and like or not that has an effect.

 

Yeah and I thought that was pretty silly then and I think it's pretty silly now. He's a good quarterback.

 

Matt Ryan was never not a franchise QB. Some people will just do whatever to help themselves feel better about that draft blunder.

 

Sure he was. He's been nothing more than a franchise "hopeful" from '08 through most of 2011, which is why he was terrible in the playoffs and had difficulty carrying his team when the ground game was ineffective. True franchise QBs don't need the ground game to set up the pass, and they don't rely on the ground game's success in the first quarter to help set the tone for the game. That's all a fact.

It wasn't until the 2nd half of last year that Ryan looked like he was emerging as an actual franchise QB to where he didn't need to lean on the ground game like he did in the past.

 

That's kind of how I interpreted that as well, whenever I saw people making that argument.

Maybe I was premature in labeling this Jeff Ireland issue moot a while back, maybe I'm just tired of arguing it. But it's pretty darn close to moot. At this point the man has been around for 5 years and yet heading into this season, based purely on the "on paper" method of evaluation (which is more a judgment of the GM than it is the coaching staff, and everyone knows it)...this team is being discounted down to the very bottom of the league. Expectations are around 5 wins, power rankings are putting the Dolphins in the bottom three, etc.

That's not to say that will prove accurate. It may not. However it is definitely indicative of what everyone thinks about the Dolphins' roster, and that is absolutely a consensus damnation of the job Jeff Ireland has done. Maybe they'll do far better and Ireland will get the last laugh, and say "eff you" to all the people who think they know better but really don't. But for the moment, the market is giving the "sell now" signal on the job Jeff Ireland has done as a General Manager.

 

and...for the Madden people....madden has Team Prestige as an F-

 

CK, let me ask you this: Do you think our offense would've looked exactly the same from 2008 to now had Parcells hired Philbin & Sherman instead of Sparano & Henning?

 

Exactly the same? No. How exactly it would be different though is anyone's guess. More points but more turnovers? Less turnovers but less points? More points and fewer turnovers? Fewer points and more turnovers? Who knows.

I think Henning's offense under Sparano ended up being very execution oriented which made certain players look a little better than they actually were. But I also think Henning and Henne were a bad mix, made each other look worse. I also think we had some prett good position coaches in various spots throughout that coaching regime, some of whom are still with the team today.

 

The percentages that say that since the rules were liberalized in recent years to favor passing, the vast majority of Elite, of Super Bowling winning, and even of playoff game winning QBs, have been drafted in the first round.