The main debate here seems to be between the people who uphold Ireland's work based on the overall talent of the players he's brought in (i.e., Fineas's original post), and the ones who are detractors because of the team's record during his tenure. Given the strength of the correlation between QB rating and wins, I submit that no team with any GM would've been significantly more successful than we've been during Ireland's tenure if it had the same quarterback play we've had. That means, IMO, that both camps are right: Ireland's overall body of work has been fine, but the fact that he hasn't obtained a franchise QB is the problem, and what accounts for the team's record during his tenure. He could've drafted a franchise QB (Matt Ryan) with the first pick in the draft in 2008, but his (or someone else's) major mistake was taking a left tackle #1 overall and waiting until the 2nd round to take a quarterback. That's the problem here IMO, why we're still worse than mediocre four years later, and why we're still looking for a franchise quarterback. Fineas, your work in the original post was great, but you didn't break down Ireland's work in the draft by position, and we're therefore left trying to explain why someone whose drafts look so decent overall has done so poorly in terms of record. The play at the quarterback position explains that easily, and Matt Ryan was the huge mistake IMO.
How do you explain why some team isn't chomping at the bit to turn Henne into its starting QB, while the Falcons move forward with Matt Ryan by trading up large numbers of slots in the first round to put pieces around him, rather than looking for another QB? In other words, please explain why the Falcons appear to be sold on Matt Ryan as their cornerstone for the future, while Chad Henne languishes on somebody's bench, even after he's gotten out from under whatever situational factors you believe were responsible for his play in Miami. Isn't the far more parsimonious explanation simply that Ryan is good, and Henne is not? Now, I realize that you trust your quarterback evaluations, and I do too, but this could easily be an instance where you made a mistake.
i totally agree as most rational people would, that matt ryan is a good qb. i think the post u were talking about had a good foundation but went too far by saying henne would be good on the falcons if he were drafted by the falcons instead of matt ryan. i think the point he was trying to make is that any good qb wouldnt look good on our dolphins team. i think that was true then and now. the turn around that the falcons made should be accredited to their gm not only drafting matt ryan but bringing in other pieces of the puzzle to turn a losing team into a winning team. there is no doubt that matt ryan being a good qb had a lot to do with that. i think what the poster that u are replying to should have asked the question..would matt ryan be as good as he is on our team? i think henne might have been better than he was on a falcons team that made better moves than we did. but henne wouldnt be a good qb as an atlanta falcon. on the other hand matt ryan being the good qb that he is, wouldnt have the same success as he has in atlanta as a miami dolphin. he still would have made the dolphins better but without the other pieces of the puzzle we still wouldnt be a good team. i believe we will see this here in miami with what i believe is a good qb on a bad team. but hopefully we wont give up on tannehill and we will build the offense around him and give him the weapons he needs. if tannehill is the good qb that i think he is, i have no reason to think this team will give up on him like we did to henne, and rightly so, because henne isn't a good qb. i would say it sucks that we have a good qb on a bad offense, but we have to start somewhere and i am glad we have tannehill. he just won't bring us to the playoffs like a good qb with good wrs would. but there's no need to panic because we will have better wrs next year. we have too many picks and to big of a need to not address this problem.ireland should not have waited this long to try to fix this problem but it is what it is. i guess u can say he tried with chad johnson but he shouldnt have put that much faith in a 34 year old wr coming off the worse year in his career. i can't say i blame ireland for not addresses the problem in our last draft but he should have done a much better job in free agency. now he has put himself in a position to use a 1st round pick on a wr. what upsets me about ireland so much is the talent that we had, was let go and not replaced in a timely manner. sure he gave us a possible chance to get better in future drafts, but he made us worse in the present. as much as i agree that brandon marshall and vontae davis weren't a perfect fit in our new team, he shouldnt have tried to trade them without having equal or better talent for their replacements "locked in". he should do what just about every good gm would do...get their replacement on our team and have the talent he plans on getting rid of, teach their replacement to replace them without knowing thats what they are doing...then trade them or cut them or just don't renew their contract. lol. sort of like the brett favre and aaron rodgers thing went down. if ireland was the gm of the packers when they drafted rodgers i feel like he would have traded favre and thrown rodgers to the wolves. lets be honest though he would have never drafted rodgers. but the way that went down is the way it should be for every position. u should never get rid of talent without having a talented replacement locked in. that doesnt mean u always have to have the replacement on the team learning from the guy that will eventually be replaced. a good gm that doesnt already have a good replacemet on their team, should at least get on the phones and get a deal done before getting rid of a talented play maker. once that deal is done, hang up the phone then pull the trigger on a trade for the guy u want to get rid of for picks. a great gm will do that as well as drafting replacements well ahead of time like the packers did with rodgers. ireland isn't the only dolphins gm i am not happy with. what about the gm that failed to have a replacement planned for marino??? i guess he thought marino would play forever. on the other hand, in irelands defense, he inherited a mess and doesnt have the luxary that the packers had. there was and still is too many needs at too many positions from the time ireland took over til now. so first he must fill all of our needs before he can draft replacements at positions that we have talent in. but ireland has no excuse for getting rid of talent with no planned replacements for the hope of getting better through future drafts. p.s sorry for my long rant full of run on sentences and no capital letters.
^ TEAM is the key word here. Ireland's job is to build a COHESIVE team. One with appropriate talent at all the important positions. You would think with some of the metrics and arguments being used to defend Ireland lately that we were talking about a baseball or basketball team.
Matt Ryan is absolutlye a franchise QB and we should've taken him and we would be far better off today if we had. Now, the past is the past and I like Tanny but to denigrate Ryan's career thus far simply to prop up Ireland is both wrong and unfair to an excellent player. I'll give an example: Over his first 4 years in the league QB "A" put up 111 TD's, 81 INT's, completed roughly 60% of his passes and had a passer rating of roughly 90. He was also 0-3 in the playoffs. Over his first 4 years in the league QB "B" put up 95 TDs, 46 INTs, completed roughly 60% of his passes and had a passer rating of roughly 90. He too was 0-3 in the playoffs. QB "A" is Peyton Manning QB "B" is Matt Ryan. You could say that Ryan has been better than Peyton over his first 4 years. Now I'm not suggesting that Ryan is or will be as good as Manning but the same arguments about can't win in the playoffs, etc., were said about Manning and I'm sure if these message boards had been around back then soimebody would've argued that Manning hadn't proved he was a franchise qB through 4 years too
this....got to love the "fanchise qb" box checked already..... I remember the same when Henne was drafted...
Because you just go the NFL Quarterback shop and buy one, it's THAT simple. Save me Matt Ryan as well, you absolutely CAN'T prove whose call it was to choose Long with the first pick.
ah....no. That is the GM's job. It is not the job of a Head Coach to look at film to find who will backup the WLB and play the nickel. The GM does that.
He didn't even go to the NFL QB shop if there was one. That is the point. And when he finally did...he stripped him of his best weapon, didn't replace him and didn't attempt to improve the level of talent around him.
This couldn't be more wrong. It's the coaches job to COACH the talent. It is absolutely the job of the GM to make sure he's finding talent that fits into a team or can be assembled into a team. By your logic it wouldn't matter if Jeff Ireland drafted 10 really good RBs in one draft because he found some talent. And that it wouldn't matter if the team already had 5 RBs. You can make the argument that it's the coach's job ot assemble the talent into the team. But how is a coach supposed to build a team if he's missing the pieces? Especially if those pieces are the most vital to success in today's NFL.
I think you are confused. It's the head coaches job to figure out who plays what. It's the coaches job to decide if they need a Nickel LB, if their normal starter is sufficient, etc, then it's the GM's job to find it. The GM picks up a guy, but it's the coaches job to figure out what they play and what they do.
That's an extreme end of it, but relentlessly picking the best player available is a pretty time-tested concept. 10 runningbacks is not a realistic scenario.
am i the only one that is also pissed at the gm(s) that put us in this place to begin with? i hate to turn this into a political debate but its the only example i can think of so please don't comment on anything political that i am about to say unless it can be used to describe gms like i am doing. i would be glad to move that discussion to a politcal forum if anyone feels the need to make comments toward the only thing i can think of that somewhat applies to our current problems on this dolphins team. lmao. its like obama blaming bush for the economy. but then obama has done nothing but make it much worse than bush did. in this case i am upset at both presidents for the economy just like i am upset with ireland and previous gms since the last time we were good in the marino days. the franchise qb problem should have been attempted to be fixed years before marino retired. nothing was done! we haven't used a first round pick for a qb since marino til now, and i applaud ireland for finally doing it. but the previous gm(s) since the good ole days failed to replace a lot of positions but the qb was the biggest mistake. so i feel bad for the mess that ireland inherited but i am no where near being pleased with how he played the hand he was dealt. it would take any gm several years to fix this mess our team is in, so i am willing to give ireland more time than most of the ireland haters are willing to give him. but when he does things like he did this off season i can't help but think he is not the man for the job because he thinks things have to get worse before they get better. that is bulls***! u can't get rid of people without having immediate replacements like ireland has done to this years team. i agree that brandon marshall had to go, i don"t agree with what we got in return but there is absolutely no reason that trade should have been made without the proper replacement for this year! same with chad johnson. i agree he had to go, but he needed to be replaced!!! i agree that vontae davis had to go, i definitely am happy with the picks we got in return, but i am extremely pissed that there wasn't a talented replacement to replace his inconsistent but great talent! is that so hard for ireland to realize that you don't get rid of talent with the hope of replacing it in a future draft while hurting us in the present! i said this in another post, but a good gm would have made the same deal that ireland did for vontae, but they wouldn't have pulled the trigger on the deal without calling someone else to make a deal for his replacement. ideally u want your replacement to already be learning on your team but if that's not possible the least we can do is make a deal for a replacemet before we make a deal that takes talent away now for nothing but a hope to pick a good player(s) a year or more from today!!!
This is dead on. I equate it to having a pretty good baseball team with poor pitching. Not too many people would give a GM a pass in that instance because, like QB play, pitching is a pretty integral part of the game. The Matt Ryan pick (non-pick) set a precedent in my and many others eyes as to how Parcells/Ireland valued the QB position. Not sure if they thought Chad Henne was really that good coming out, or if finding Tony Romo where they did in Dallas made them believe they could find a franchise QB that easily.
We are 250+ posts in this thread and all the anti-Ireland sentiment that I expected, but nobody has countered the main points. So I'm going to try to bring this back to those to see if anyone has a factually-based argument to counter them. 1. I am not saying that Ireland is or has been the best GM in the NFL. In fact, my analysis identified 6 that have done a better job and another few that were in the same ballpark. 1. Eagles – 36.48 CarAV per $1000 (227 CarAV/$6222.6) 2. Packers – 36.3 CarAV per $1000 (226 CarAV/$6226.9) 3. Ravens – 34.8 CarAV per $1000 (198 CarAV/$5675.6) 4. Titans – 33.38 CarAV per $1000 (217 CarAV/6499.7) 5. Falcons – 28.19 CarAV per $1000 (243 CarAV/$8623.4) 6. Steelers – 26.40 CarAV per $1000 (138 CarAV/$5226.4) 7. Dolphins/Ireland – 23.79 CarAV per $1000 (198 CarAV/$8319.5) 8. Patriots – 23.51 CarAV per $1000 (205 CarAv/$8719) 9. Giants – 22.63 CarAV per $1000 (140 CarAV/$6186.4) The point is that Ireland's drafting record since 2008 is in the top 10 or top third among NFL GMs. Tjhere is no need to and no point in arguing that the GMs for these other teams are better thasn Ireland. I am not arguing otherwise (although I easily could make the same type of anti-_______ arguments about each of them that have been used against Ireland). So can anyone identify any GM not on this list who has done a better job than Ireland in the draft? To really counter the main point of the thread we would need at least 6-7 of them, but let's start with 1 or 2. 2. The team record argument against Ireland also has no legs. The Dolphins haven't been bad over this time period; they have been almost exactly average. If a GM is to be judged solely by his team's record (an absurd notion, but we'll go with it for present purposes), then Ireland has done an average job. If we take into account that he started with a team that went 1-15 the year before he got here and 6-10 the year before that, an average of 7.75 wins per season cannot be seen as a failure or below average performance. Yes, the Falcons were also bad when Dimitroff got there and they have been better overall than the Dolphins. OK, we'll stipulate that Dimitroff has been a better GM over the past 5 years. And for present purposes I'll stipulate to the same as to the other GMs on the list above. But who are the other ones that are better? 3. Criticisms of specific, individual picks miss the point entirely and are a waste of time. Every GM misses. Every GM picks some busts. Every GM passes on great players. Harping on specific, individual picks is as inane as harping on individual at bats by a baseball player. I could do that for any GM in the history of the NFL, but it would be an exercise in stupidity just as it is here. 4. The notions that Ireland undervalues the QB position, ignores playmakers, drafts too heavily for the trenches are nonsense. First, take a look at the draft records of the teams with the top reputed GMs -- Baltimore, GB, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Philly, NE, etc. -- they all draft for the trenches at roughly the same rates as Ireland. Why? Because the trenches are important and the defensive front 7 and the OL make up more than half of the starting roster. Second, Ireland has drafted 3 QBs in the first 2 rounds, with one of them a high first rounder. When you factor in the 2 seconds traded for Brandon Marshall, 40% of Ireland's picks in the first 3 rounds have been used on offensive playmakers. I don't think you'll find a higher number from any of the top GMs. 5. It is pretty apparent that Brandon Marshall was traded at the request or demand of Joe Philbin. Certainly, at least with Philbin's wholehearted blessing. Ireland's job is to get the players to serve the coaches' needs and wants. If they don't want a guy, get rid of him. That is why Marshall is gone. If they aren't going to fully utilize a guy and you can get a good return on him, then trade him. That is why Vontae is gone. If a guy doesn't fit into the culture the head coach is trying to establish and is a distraction, then get rid of him. That is why Chad Johnson is gone. Yes, WR is a weakness on this team. It appears that Philbin is aware of that and also comfortable with it. From the beginning, he has said he didn't need or want the proverbial No. 1 WR. He believes his offense can work as well, or better, with a group of unheralded but heady WRs who run good routes, etc. 6. The team's record and performance depends heavily on the head coach and the QB. Sparano just wasn't very good. Does anyone think that a good HC wouldn't have been worth an axtra win or two each year over the last 4 years? Does anyone think a better QB wouldn't have been worth an extra win or two each year? With an extra 2-4 wins per year this is a 10-12 win team that goes to the playoffs every year. 7. Matt Ryan. Needless to say, a GM shouldn't be judged, based on 20/20 hindsight, on a single pick. It is particularly ridiculous to criticize him for taking a 4-time Pro Bowler who is arguably the best LT in the game and no worse than No. 3-4. People have different opinions of Matt Ryan. Some see him as a slightly above average game manager and others see him as something more. But I don't think that even those who see him as something more believe he is a better QB than Rodgers, Brees, Brady, PManning, EManning, Stafford, Rivers or Newton. That would make him at best the 9th best QB in the NFL. That essentially makes him the Jeff Ireland of QBs -- not elite but better than average. And the hindsighters who harp on the Long-Ryan issue seem to forget that Ireland/Parcells were not the only QB-needy GMs that didn't passed on Ryan. The Rams also passed on him. As I am sure almost everyone here remembers, the Dolphins were very receptive to trading back that year. Parcells had traded back from a top pick with the Jets and the Dolphins were very candid about needing more than just one player and wanting to stockpile picks. There were several QB needy teams right behind the Falcons that had an opportunity to trade up just a few spots to get Ryan, but none of them had any interest in that. Oakland, KC, the Jets, Jax, Buffalo, Carolina and Chicago were all within range of a trade up but I don't recall there being any talk that any of them were interested in doing that.
But clearly you were wrong because Ireland has taken a QB high in the first round (not to mention two second round picks used on QBs). Cling to your "undervalues QBs" theory all you want, but hasn't that now been rendered completely irrelevant and inconsequential by the Tannehill pick?
Since Parcells shat upon the franchise, 7 QBs have been brought in with hopes to start: Penny, Henne, Thigpen, White, Moore, Garrard & Tannehill. The first 4 while Parcells was still using us like an ego toilet bowl. The last 3 in the 2 years since. I don't think its ridiculous to say Penny, Henne & White were either direct orders form Parcells or fit the Parcells requirement for drafting a QB. I would say Thigpen, Moore, Garrard & Tanny are all Ireland picks, but I don't know that for sure with Thigpen. Last year was one year too many for Henne but there was no point in drafting a QB last off season because we knew there'd be a new coach this season and none of the QBs we had a shot at were good enough to transcend whatever offense we brought in (like a Brees or Manning for example). So Ireland did the next best thing and that was bring in Moore. We have not stood pat on QBs. We have constantly tried to uncover the future either by drafting in the 1 & 2 rounds or FAs. And we've done it having to follow an ineffective blueprint for most of that time. That blueprint was promptly thrown out last year and that cannot be seriously argued when you look at Penny/Henne/White vs. Moore/Garrard/Tannehill. Oh, and if anyone thinks going 0-7 then 6-3 is a talent problem and not a coaching problem you aren't being honest or rational.
The Dolphins have been bad. The record is propped up by a mirage 11-5 when Tom Brady was out for the season, we had a good QB and the wildcat was setting the world on fire. You might remeber back then people thought Tony Sparano was an excellent coach. Now apparently he is the worst of all time who couldn't win with the overflow of talent provided to him. Second, the stat used simply isn't relevant. It too is proppoed up by one guy, Jake Long. And he is the only member of that class left, by the way. Third, we absolutely should have taken Matt Ryan. Having the 9th best QB would be far better than having the best or second best LT. Lastly, Jeff Ireland has failed to pick playmakers with any level of competence. And yes, you can look at specific picks here. I continue to go back to Jimmy Graham. By alla ccounts the Dolphins liked him, thought he was good, and had a relative need at the position. Yet they took a fat, lazy RG/RT instead. And NO, who really didn't even need another playmaker, reaped the benefits. In essence, Ireland preferred a flawed trench player over a raw playmaker. And that's simply the wrong thing to do in this day and age
And Joe Philbin/Mike Sherman haven't done much better. Plus, how many times did we hear how great the cowboys offense was with Tony calling the plays?
Dude, he JUST took a QB in the 1st. Outstanding that in his 5th year he finally did it. The most important position in all of sports and the Round where franchise QB's are most commonly found, and year number 5 he pulls the trigger. I'm proud of him, I really am. And two second round picks on QB's? Can you really type that with a straight face knowing that one of those QB's was Pat Bleeping White?
This is analogous to saying that our record last season was propped down by the lockout. By all means, post the research that supports Jake Long's effect on the numbers in relation to that of other players on other teams. If the measuring stick for being fired is not drafting enough "playmakers" (I assume that means skill positions), by all means post the data that puts Jeff Ireland in context with every other GM in the league, so we can if A)there is any correlation with success and B)how Jeff Ireland has performed in relation to every other GM since 2008. As it stands now the anti-Ireland argument consists solely of platitudes, namely; "our 31-33 record sucks" and "we don't have anyone that I can put on my fantasy team".
What does Tom Brady being out have to do with us being 11-5, we don't play the Pats all 16 games. I am pretty sure we split with them that year too, so at worst Tom Brady would make us 10-6. Wow, big difference that 1 win makes over 4 years.
I don't know what was Parcells and what was Ireland, so I think we should hold Ireland accountable for what happened when Parcells was here. And the truth is, there is no shame in what happened when Parcells was here. That 2008 draft was a good one -- not many teams got a 4-time Pro Bowler, a 4-year starting DL, a 3-yr. starting QB and a few 6th and 7 round guys that either started or made some kind of contribution for a few years in that draft, or most others. Pennington was a great pickup. The 2009 draft yielded 2 starting CBs and a starting WR. No shame in that either. Last year may have been one year too many for Henne, but the other QB options were not great. Despite the love for Mallett around these parts, he has not been impressive in NE. Dalton would have been an OK choice, but at 15? I like the guy much more than many, but I'm not going to tar and feather a GM for passing on Andy Dalton at 15. We had no real ammo to trade up, but even if we did, should we have traded up for Gabbert, Ponder or Locker? Would you trade Tannehill right now for any of those guys? I wouldn't. Would any of those guys have made us better last year? I don't think so. There was nothing wrong with any Parcells blueprint. Parcells drafted a QB No. 1 overall. He started him as a rookie. By his second year, he let the guy throw the ball more than any QB in NFL history (up to last year). But it seems they weren't confident that Ryan would be an elite QB. Yes, you can win with a guy like Ryan but I think the feeling was that you won't win enough more with him than you will with someone like Henne. And yes, the Falcons have won more with Ryan than we won with Henne, but have they won enough more? Have they advanced past the first round of the playoffs? No. And, of course, the 3 games more per year that the Falcons have won has not been solely attributable to Matt Ryan.
To be honest, I'm not quite sure if I agree with the methodology you employed. I can see why you used the CarAVG stat but I'm really not sure if it doesn't taint the results when applied to a draft window. For instance, Koa Misi scores a CarAVG value of 12 - while Jason Pierre Paul scores a 16. Yes, Misi was drafted a year earlier and in a different round, too. But if you're comparing them by using their CarAVG values, then a 4 point difference is rather silly. Koa Misi is a solid young outside backer; JPP is the best young pass rusher in the business. I don't have the time to do this for 30 other teams at the moment, but just going by a quick glance, I'd rather have one JPP than our whole 2010 draft combined.
If you don't want to look at the obvious factors that contributed to our playoff run in 2008 then by all means keep your head in the sand. And no, I'm not anti-Ireland because we don't have anybody that I can draft for fantasy football. I'm anti-Ireland because we don't have enough good football players, period. The overall record would be better if we had better players, regardless of coaching. There is nothing objective about this analysis that Fineas has engaged in. All it does it set up straw man after straw man. The entire argument rests on a stat regarding the value of players we drafted since 2008. Someone else posted it, but Long was a huge part of that overall value. Second, an argument that is premised on "other guys also sucked at their jobs" is a terrible, specious, ridiculous argument. Whether or not Tim Ruskell or Buddy Nix picked worse players than Ireland is irrelevant. I'm concerned about the players Ireland actually chose versus those he passed on and what his overall philosophy for building a team is (four years in I still have no clue)
And now Jake Long is the only guy left from that 2008 class. If the class was as good as you say then those guys should be the cornerstone of our team TODAY. They are not. The fact that we started Henne for 3 years and Langford for 4 is irrelevant if they aren't long term impact players for you. And starting those guys got us nothing the last 3 years. Similarly, we are now down to one starting CB from 2009, and Smith is a free agent and hasn't been anything spectacular anyway. You also rely heavily on "Ireland found starters". Yeah, he found starters because we had no other options. Looking at you Hartline, Misi and Reshad Jones.
Conversely you could use the same argument regarding 2011. I'm not sure why Jake Long shouldn't count??? Had we drafted Vernon Gholston, would he be immune to your criticism? It absolutely is relevant. I can guarantee you that firing Jeff Ireland is not going to create more wins. The only thing that will create more wins is finding a better GM. You've failed to provide a modicum of analysis that indicates what the probability of finding a better GM than Jeff Ireland is.
IMO the Henning we got was a special kind of bad. In general, I would say the coaching wouldn't make that much of a difference as most NFL coaching is fairly close. But in Henning I saw one of the worst OC performances I have ever seen. I think he was a detriment that almost no QB could have overcome. I would say Atlanta did a better job, but that the disparity looks worse b/c of the lack of continuity and the Henning years. If the Dolphins had had Daboll (or any single, decent OC) for all those years then the QB position, the offense and the team would have looked considerably better. I think the belief that we're talentless is overblown. I posted an article by Lombardi a week or two back that ranked the top 10 at each position and Miami had several players on the list. And that's despite the turnover where each new coach ends up changing the parameters. (ie. we lost Marshall with the latest/philosophy regime change). I can't say that I have agreed with everything Ireland has done, but on balance and compared to the rest of the league, he wasn't bad and was actually pretty good.
And why the hell not? A GM needs to understand the importance of the quarterback in today's game, and he needs to make accurate appraisals of players at that position. Somebody in Davie got fancy in 2008 and thought he could wait till the 2nd round and get just as good a quarterback as Matt Ryan. That was a mistake, and it's the main reason this team is still bad. That's a fireable offense IMO. It's not just that he "shouldn't be judged" based on it -- if it's true he did the appraisal and made the pick, he should be fired for it! This is all very easy to do when we're sitting here at our computers and really have no significant monetary investment in this team. Call me when you're Stephen Ross and you have hundreds of millions at stake and you've hired a guy to evaluate quarterbacks, you're coming off a 1-15 season where you've lost the interest of the huge portion of the fanbase, and the guy you've hired blows the first pick in the draft and mires you in mediocrity for ANOTHER five years. At that point tell me the guy you've hired "shouldn't be judged" for that.
So why isn't Chad Henne kicking *** on some other team, now that he has no Dan Henning holding him down?
