*The Official 2011-12 NBA Thread*

I still feel like throwing up whenever this gets brought up.

 

I expect him to go for something like 37-12-8

That would be a hell of a game still, and there arent really any other players in the league you can predict that for and feel secure.

 

We actually run alot of sets like that, but getting Lebron off the ball and moving is what has proven to be the most successful this postseason. It is why you see Wade playing so much point guard. They have seen fit to attack the Celtics defense this way, and I think it has to do with keeping the Celtics moving on defense, and not letting them set.

 

I'm not saying he is a terrible jump shooter, but I think he shot something like 40% from outside 10 ft this year, and then shot 66% last night. So instead of shooting 12 of 18 from that distance, he would've gone 7 of 18. That is a pretty big difference. He was hitting fadeaways and turn-arounds off the glass that almost never fall for him.

Don't get me wrong - if he is in the same mindset next game, he could easily put 45 without ever shooting a jumper - but even for LeBron James, last night was an outlier.

I'm picking the Heat to win - so this isn't some Heat hate post - I just think Wade or some of the role guys are going to have to chip in next game, and they haven't been great so far this series. LeBron James won that game single-handedly, and I wouldn't expect him to do that again.

 

Lebron does everything well but you are better off when his mentality is create first and then distribute when the defense overcommits. When Lebron is in constant distribution mode you get something like the Finals last year where all he does is facilitate and everyone wonders why he doesn't just straight up attack.

Last night was what Lebron perfection looks like. Monster attacking game and distribute when they roll two (or three....or dour or five) guys at you.

 

Section are they allowed to wear the all blacks? Or is that regular season only....

it would be bad *** if they came out in that tomorrow...

 

Yep. We had it well in hand when Wade got hurt Game 5. We might've beaten SA also. Detroit who was inferior to us took them 7 games

 

I question if he will have the same mentality more than if he will cool off.

His focus was palpable. I mean you could just feel it though the tv lie a razor's edge. That wasn't just playing basketball, it was methodical destruction.

 

I remember early in the season Lebron playing the point quite a bit but it seems like as the season went on it sort of just declined. For instance I'd be interested in how often we've fielded a rotation of James-Wade-(Miller/Battier)-(Bosh/Haslem) - (Anthony/Haslem)

Maybe we have more than I think. Its been hard not to get caught up staring at Lebron this postseason. There have been times you dont even care who else is on the court just because Lebron is.

 

The NBA does not allow alternate Home uniforms in the playoffs.

 

LOL I did that last night. There was one period when Lebron was killing it and then Bosh pulled down a rebound and I was like, "Bosh? When did he check in?"

 

A shame, the all blacks are sick

 

I agree, but when Chalmers is in foul trouble or having a bad night defensively it might be worth while to play a rotation with James at the point with Miller or Battier at the SF. Because it provides more size without losing any defensive ability or shooting ability. I wouldn't want to see Lebron at the PG position too much, just select situations possibly where we need a spark and our offense is stagnant.

 

While I would love to see it, I don't buy that Boston's age has caught up to them and that they aren't capable or even unlikely to shoot as well as they did three or four days ago.

 

I find this amusing.

1) It would probably increase jersey sales among casual fans who like the look.

2) Because uniforms really impact the game SO MUCH.

 

KG looked old last night. Ray Allen had a terrible series against the 76ers an has bone spurs. He found his stroke but they have to be screaming at him every time he jumps. It's subtle but if you start getting a little less lift and arch your percentages go down drastically.

It's what I've noticed about aging superstars in every sport. It's not that they can't do it anymore but consistency becomes a problem. They kill it one night but then on others it just isn't there no matter how hard they try.

 

See....NOW we all have something to do Saturday night other than run a train on Revis's mother.

 

Eww dude, who wants to run a train on a pigmy hippo?

 

While I agree about aging stars, in this case they don't need great consistency. They would have to produce after just having had an off night. Having a good game after having had a bad game a couple of nights earlier is the definition of inconsistency. That's exactly what aging superstars are capable of doing.

 

0-11 (L)
3-14 (W)
4-13 (W)
11-26 (W)
6-14 (L)
2-10 (W)

2-18 (W)
8-18 (L)
5-11 (W)
7-23 (L)
3-15 (W)
3-14 (L)
3-17 (W)

4-14 (L)
5-16 (L)
5-17 (W)
9-27 (W)
6-15 (W)
1-14 (L)

So far this postseason they have totaled 307 three pointers attempted in 19 games for an average of 16 attempts per game. Of those 307 shots they have hit 84 for them for an average of 4 per game. So they have averaged about 4-16 from three this postseason. That is an average of 25% over 19 games. For them to hit 6 of 15, while possible, they would certainly have to exceed what they have done. Only in 6 games out of 19 have they hit 6 or more three pointers and three of those times it required taking 20+ shots from beyond the arc. 25+ in two of the three.

I'd bet more money on them having another poor shooting night from three than I would having a great one.

 

Also I don't really get why everyone thinks Boston shot so poorly. They shot 42% which while not great, isn't terrible. For comparison we shot 48% as a team. We only hit five more shots than they did and attempted only one more. If you exclude three pointers they actually out shot us. They had more points off turnovers and more points in the paint than we did as well.

If our role players hit their threes we will win, period, barring an incredible effort from Boston.

 

there is nothing wrong with that, I woulda pushed that dude in the suit back....the guy never lifted a hand towards LeBron...

 

Why wouldn't you bet on them just shooting 25% from 3 instead of the 9% they shot last night. That's what you said they average. That would certainly be a better shooting night. It seems more likely to me that their shooting will get closer to the average.

 

Last post for a while need to stop ranting.

Why exactly do I always hear that Ray Allen is one of the best three point shooters ever? By volume maybe...but he isn't even in the top 28 all time in percentage while two current Miami Heat players are. (Of the players above him all but one have over 600 attempts at least).

Now I understand he has great ability to come off of screens and create open looks. However when it comes to actually hitting it he's certainly been amazing in his career, but people talk as if he is in the top five best or something and based on stats I can't agree with that.

Insight?

BTW I'm not saying he ISNT a great shooter. Just asking what exactly makes him "one of the greatest" as has been said repeatedly by media.

 

that dude in the suit is the head of Heat security. You push that dude back, he rips your arms off and beats you with them. I know that dude, you don't want to mess with him.

 

one of the greatest because he has the all-time record for makes, and he is at the magical 40% number that marks efficient three point shooting.

 

When you shoot 25% from three that is terrible and I wouldn't bet on you being consistent any night. The point is that if they go 4-16 (average) that is only 9 more points over the course of a game, which is pretty meaningless when coupled with the fact I doubt they outscore us in transition again shooting that poorly from three. I didn't say they won't shoot closer to their average, I just said that even if they shoot average it wont make a difference.

 

Ray Allen is a baaaaaaaad man.

Forget Rondo hrs the guy on the Celtics that scares me. When he is en fuego? Fagetaboutit

 

So basically volume and 40% (which Im not saying isn't great it obviously is.)

My question is does that make Mike Miller one of the greatest of all time (top 30 lets say) seeing as he is 24th all time in makes and shoots at a slightly higher percent? Not asking this down Allen at all, love his game, more trying to put other current shooters in perspective.

Im also not saying Miller is an all-time great from three I'm just trying to give perspective to the statistics.

 

This comes back to my point earlier - if LeBron is shooting his normal average on shots 10 ft out (7 of 18 instead of 12 of 18) and the Celtics hit their normal percentage of 3's (4 of 14 instead of 1 of 14) it is a completely different game.

I'm not trying to put too much stock in this, because every game is different - but if your argument is that if these teams shoot closer to their average it still won't matter, I'd disagree.

 

My expectation, as I stated earlier, is that they shoot better from three. Their shooting from everywhere else will probably fluctuate up or down a few points as well. A game that's under 10 is is vastly different than a game that's at a 20 point difference.

 

Absolutely. Mike Miller is one of the greatest three point shooters of all-time.

 

In the above scenario Lebron would score about 10 points less and the Celtics would score about 9 points more. That would make it 19 points closer and we won by 19. Obviously every game is different but expecting a closer game doesn't seem very far-fetched to me.

 

My point was only that it shouldn't be expected for them to suddenly shoot a great percentage from three, and that the three isn't going to make a huge difference. Also expect Bosh to have a bigger offensive impact which makes what happened games 1-6 kind of pointless as far as predictions go. With Bosh in I expect less second chance points from Boston and KG negated by Bosh to an extent.

Honestly I kind of find the beyond ten feet stat a little too variable. That could be anywhere. 10.1 feet or a 21 foot jumper. Averages aside, if Lebron ends up shooting the same type of shots I expect similar results.

 

Oh I expect a closer game for sure. I just don't think Boston has the firepower to win right now with Bosh back. He opens up so much for this team on both offense and defense. The Celtics won't be able to play the same style of game they have in their wins. Obviously Bosh played game six but there was still obvious rust especially on offense. I expect much less. In the same scenario - Lebron scores 10 less. Celtics score 9 more. Tied. Alright now add a better offensive performance by Bosh and possibly Wade if he decides its important to play. I still see a win where we can control the game throughout.

I have us by between 8-12

 

I'd be thrilled with that, but I'm not as confident. I expect to be nervous throughout.

 

I'm nervous already

I wish I could guarantee even to myself "yep, that is how it will play out" but the fact is that Brandon Bass could go for 27 (or 29?) like he did earlier this postseason out of nowhere. Ray Allen could go 5-5 from three. KG could go for 20-10. Rondo might have a 20-7-15 game. Who knows?

Everything I've said is just my -hope- for the team based on what we -can- do. But theres no guarantee of what might happen. I wish we could have played game seven today

In my opinion: This isnt individual matchups btw...just who I feel will cancel who out based on statistical output.

KG vs Bosh = Tie or close to it
Allen vs Miller/Battier = whoever is hot big turning point but should be a near tie
Wade vs Pierce = Tough call. Which Wade and which Pierce show up? So far they've both been bad mainly so tie I guess.

I think it all comes down to Rondo vs Lebron. Whichever guy leads their team and sets the pace better will end up winning. Just my two cents.

 

I actually agree with you on most everything (Heat will win, Bosh will have huge impact) but disagree with this point. LeBron shot 19 of 26 and a good percentage of his shots were not at the rim. If he continues to take long jumpers, fadeaways and turnarounds off the glass, I do not expect the similar results.

This is not a knock on LeBron or a way of saying the Heat will lose - but just pointing out that LeBron shot WELL above his head last night and that shouldn't be expected to repeat.

If the Heat are going to win, it isn't going to be because LeBron continued to take jumpers, it is going to be because Wade or Bosh finally have a big game or the role players knock down their trees. Any of those things are much more likely in my book than LeBron repeating his shooting performance (though I expect him to repeat his defensive/rebounding performance.)

 

I don't disagree on that, my point is that based on his shot chart most his shots came between about 12-16 feet. When Lebron catches the ball in rhythm at that distance I expect those to be makes almost regardless of coverage. I dont disagree that his shot from 17 feet and beyond will not be the same.

I also really hope no trees are harmed during the game