***Official 2011-12 MLB HOTSTOVE OFF-SEASON THREAD***

Discussion in 'Other Sports Forum' started by BigDogsHunt, Oct 29, 2011.

  1. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Luck and fortune vs skill is the biggest discrepancy in the Wins cat. I will judge Quality Starts vs Wins anyday to see what I think is a valuable arm on the starting staff.

    And I even HATE that 6innings and 3 runs is a Quality start....as that equals 4.50 ERA. To me its 7 innings minimum of max3 runs equal Quality. or 2 runs over 6 innings.
     
  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    1 game? No.

    10 k's, or 12 baserunners, the goal is to win the game Nappy.

    And keep in mind, RF mentioned Lackey, and I'm not a fan of his, and think if you were going to sign him as a FA you'd better not overpay him as he does win games, but he can just as easily lose them with the bad breaks that happen in every MLB game.

    For example, in LA mayb Lackey gets the ground ball with two men on and 1 out in the 5th with a 1 run lead, in Boston, maybe he doesn't get it, that is how it goes.

    The good ones though, just find a way to avoid it happening to them.
     
  3. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    You cant judge a pitcher on wins. Not until he plays defense behind himself at all nice spots and takes ever AB anyway. However I think you can be dominant pitching to contact. Putting the ball where the hitter has to pull it or jump ahead early and hit dribblers is just as much a skill as the K

    Im sorry but anyone who thinks a pitcher would win as many games pitching for the 99 Marlins as they would the 97 Marlins is ridiculous. Wins have nothing to do with a pitchers skill. He can leave up 100-0 and end up with a loss.
     
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  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    There is some truth in the fortune part, however how do some pitchers seem to have it on their side consistently?


    21 outs to generate 3 runs is not giving your team a chance to win the game or leaving with a tie?

    Over a season, that would be 33 starts 7 innings=240 Ip's or so?

    That sounds like a fairly good pitcher BDH.
     
  5. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    3 earned over 6 = 4.50 ERA...and you would have "average" over 7plus innings over 33 starts to match, 240IPs.

    However, 6 innings over 33 starts equals only 198 innings and giving up 3 runs on average....no, I am not impressed with that performance, personally, no.

    I realize its viewed as quality start by MLB right now, I myself seek more of a 2 over 6, or max 3 over 7+ from my #1, #2, or #3....I can accept a #4 or #5 that hovered around the 4.5 mark.

    And actually, thats what the problem with the Wins stat is that some of the performance you may be measuring are indeed, from #3, and especially, #4 and some #5 who more often face garbage and can pitch like equal garbage but walk away with WINS all over the place cause one teams bats are so much better.

    And NL Wins are some of the worst to gauge when it comes to Starting pitchers when NL lineups have maybe 6 or 7 solid bats...vs often 8 or all 9 on many AL offensive lineups.
     
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  6. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Sorry you can't have it both ways. If you put that much emphasis on wins and loses. That should be a bad start for you
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well BDH, not saying that performance makes anyone an Ace pitcher, am saying that is keeping your team in the ballgame with a chance to win it, and that is pretty much all you can ask of your pitching imo.

    The rest of it, K's, WHIP, etc, is froth.
     
  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'd thought you were asking about the pitcher himself being bad.

    Well sure, that is a bad start, your team did not win the ballgame.
     
  9. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Great pitchers always have a bad win-lose record on bad teams and always good ones on good teams. The proof is there. If your still judging pitchers that way, its just you wanting to turn your cheeks to the facts.
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Would you celebrate a 1-0 loss?

    Why or why not?
     
  11. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    But that's what we are saying, where prior to that you stated the Starting pitcher should be judged by the WIN...and not simply by keeping your team in position to secure the WIN.

    Its about the TEAM winnings, but judging a Starting pitcher on whether they secure the WIN themselves is silly. So many better stats to use and properly measure a starting pitchers worth.
     
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  12. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    This debate again?
     
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  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    "If" they do manage that sort of start, it would stand to reason they would win games sans, your assertion, WHIP and the rest of it, that approach negates the importance of such statistical monkery...


    The guy going 7 innings is somehow not important?

    Why?
     
  14. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Team Loss, no.....but properly crediting the effort of the Starting pitcher and bullpen holding the opponent to 1 run...yes. Of course, you would properly BASH the one duffus that gave up the run, especially if it was a GOPHER BALL!

    And of course rip the bats for CHOKING vs the opposing arms! ]

    :lol:
     
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  15. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    No it stands to reason they did their job and pitched effectively and kept the team in position to win - however it doesnt guarantee they should or will be the pitcher of record for the win stat since that depends on the BATS and opposing Arm which the Starting pitcher has no control over.....and them going 7 innings regardless of outcome of the WIN on their record is whats important.
     
  16. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I would celebrate the personal performance, yes.
     
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  17. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    :lol:

    Logically then, if a team went 0-162, but lost every game 1-0, the whole season would be considered spectacular?
     
  18. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I think to some extent measuring the number of LOSSES earned by a pitcher is perhaps more measurable then the number of Wins earned!
     
  19. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Why are you lumping individual performance vs. Team Outcome and comparing what is or is not to celebrate or root for?
     
  20. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    So by your logic the pitcher went 0-30 but yet had a ERA of 1 for the season with 20 complete games....that isn't a spectacular season?
     
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Which is my position, no need for the statistical indices, a live arm who makes it through those innings is no different from a junkballer who pitches with runners on base inning after inning.

    If the junkballer manages to win gm in and gm out, and the live arm doesn't, isn't that what matters?
     
  22. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Well some tried soft-tossers vs Flame throwers....
     
  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The premise was, a 1-0 loss could, or could not be, celebrated.

    If yes, then why not celebrate an entire season of such losses, if no, then what is the value of a 1-0 loss, you still lost.
     
  24. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    For the last time, from the TEAM's perspective only -- a WIN or LOSS matters.

    However, putting that "W as the objective of their contribution" on the Starting pitcher regardless of STUFF is illogical for measuring their performance. The W isnt the TELLING part of their performance.
     
  25. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    And I stated....an individual performance in a 1-0 loss would be celebrated/praised/judged properly.

    A team would still be a group of LOSERs collectively!

    How many times do I have to answer the same question phrased different ways to tell you the TEAM cares about the Win or the Loss.

    The collective 25 individuals on the roster have individual measurements, and from a STARTING PITCHERS standpoint the "W" is not the most important, best, or proper way to measure their worth.
     
  26. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    We shall never agree BDH, the ONLY objective measure of a starting pitcher's performance, is W or L's.
     
  27. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Wow, did FinYank take over your account??


    :headwall:





    :lol: I kid, I kid!!!!
     
  28. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    thats a huge logical fallacy, as its not even a stat meant to just measure a pitchers performance.
    era,whip, and such are statistics specifically made to measure an individuals performance.
    If you really want to play that game then you can blame win/loss on a batter who plays a perfect game and goes 4-4, as he would be part of the w or l stat.
     
  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    :lol:

    Bro, I'm so bored, and stressed, that I've opened Wiki's "Fallacies" page to see where Lucky is coming from!

    I'm not sure if he is referencing:

    -circular cause and consequence
    -correlation is not causation

    Anyone have any idea who will replace Puljos in St Louis?

    Berkman to first base?

    For whatever reason, I don't see Prince going there.

    And on MLB's coverage of the winter meetings, they mentioned the Braves had shopped Jair Jurrgens.
     
  30. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    [​IMG]
     
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  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    A's traded Cahill.
     
  32. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I thought Gio Gonzalez was going to be traded.
     
  33. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    Who says he won't be?
     
  34. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    Might want to read the wiki article again. And yes it is a logical fallacy what you are saying. You are trying to argue a team stat is the best measure of individual performance.
     
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  35. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    The only way you can use W-L tol judge a pitcher is possibly at the end of a career. Even then you are grasping at straws. The fact is that a pitcher who plays for a team with bad fielding and offense will win less games than a clone of himself on a different team.

    Maybe we should just throw out the other 8 players on the field since they have no input as to the end result.
     
  36. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Disagree, W/L for a pitcher is the only actual measure for them, there is no other statistic to accurately measure their performance.

    Pitchers, handling the ball and thusly the game, are the most important position in any given ball game as their performance directly impacts the score and thusly the W/L's.
     
  37. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    .

    Padre, W/L is the most archaic of all stats for a pitcher. Reason being, it depends on factors beyond his control. If his team scores him no runs, he can't win. If his bullpen blows a lead, he can't win.

    ERA is a MUCH better stat, as is WHIP. In football, I might agree with you. But how do you explain Felix Hernandez having unbelievable numbers and winning the CY yet have a losing record? I'll tell you, his team had arguably the worst offensive year of any team in recent memory.

    It's also the reason guys on the Yankee and Sox have great records, but average stats. If your team scores you 6 runs a game you should win almost every time.
     
  38. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    So many stats in baseball, so many flaws with each of them.
     
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  39. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    Which would be great if it was just the pitcher that effected the score. Which is my point, you are claiming logic while trying to use a stat that has various other factors in it to measure one factor in it.
     
  40. Mainge

    Mainge Season Ticket Holder

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    Should have listened to this guy.
     

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