Ten Thoughts on First Half of Panthers Preseason Game

His QB ratings in the week 3 games in his career have been 0, 16, and 44. Definitely trending upward though

 

Because they are the correct QBRs for each of those games. To get total QBR is not going to be just an average of each game's QBR.

 

lol!

 

When I was younger and we scored a TD, I'd carry on like a man on crystal meth and peyote. Even did when we drafted Louis Oliver, Zach Thomas, and (horror) JJ Johnson.
Now that I am more mellow with age, I just clap and smile.

 

Now you’re just making things up to get a rise. I’m watching the game right now and Henne clearly looked to the sideline for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] down marker and slid after he crossed it.

Come on man.

 

MrClean, if that rating trend for game 3 continues (0, 16, 44) Henne will come out at 93 this week.

 

I usually scream like a little girl and scare my little dog so she pees on the floor.

 

I think if you stop pinching and twisting your own nipples while screaming, then you dog won't get scared so much.

 

But that is fun.........lol

 

i disagree on the pouncey and columbo comments .i'll agree on pouncey on the goal line comments but he opened alot of lanes up the middle most of our big runs were behind him. columbo looked good to me i saw him bend at the waist a little and the defender get under him once but besides that he played well. thought dan thomas played well also. maybe you just have higher standards than me CK. i would still like pouncey and incognito switch places though as i fell incog is more powerful and pounce is more athletic.

 

Thanks man....very much appreciate the detailed explanation. It just seems odd though...doesnt it? Two game ratings over 80...yet when u combine the two....it plummets....maybe they weigh things differently as you generate more attempts?

 

Yes, the more you throw the ball the more TDs you should have. If you don't score TDs, even if you have a solid completion % and solid YPA your passer rating will just keep going (incrementally) down.

TDs and INTs weigh heavily on the formula.

 

It's really a tough situation as far as figuring out what the team wants to do. There's no doubt Miami will be facing nickel and dime formations all year. Does it serve you better to have a drive blocking power football team against that or would it be better if they were creative and pulled etc...

I would honestly say with the defense spread, the best and most decisive way to gain yardage is to straight ahead drive block behind a powerful OL.

 

I bought a house a couple months ago, I'm out of my apartment that I lived in for 8 years. My neighbors used to laugh at me, but it was all good. I have to swear, it's just a part of me.

 

No, it's not a factor of weighing. It's just the fact that passer rating over multiple games cannot be deduced by finding an average. It's a unique stat. Most stats are simple: yards per rush is just an average, rushing yards divided by rush attempts. People are used to that, they know how to find the average amount. So they're trained to use averages in football stats, run passer rating through that filter, and wind up with a disconnect because the actual passer rating is different from the average passer rating.

I know people hate passer rating, but it's an accurate assessment of quarterback play. In this case, Henne is harmed by a very bad first preseason game plus no touchdowns in his second preseason game. He's not generating enough offense. He did get the offense down the field fairly well in the second game, though, as evidenced by his Roethlisberger-like 8.08 YPA.

 

4/8 for 77 yards is damn good. So is 15/24 for 194. Together, those numbers in one game are mediocre, but that's not how PR works if you're going game by game. There's a reason why it's looks so bad when total and not on a game by game basis. The stats become diluted. The biggest fault in that is it takes his YPA from 8.9, to 8.4. That's using flawed math if you want to evaluate his in game performances individually.

EDIT: I should be clear. As a whole, it works that way sure. But if we're doing this on a game by game basis, using the total numbers is skewing it. This is one of those times where our eyes are better than the numbers. He has a total "Passer Rating" is bad at 71.2. But can someone say in any of those games, he played like a 71.2? Again, Passer Rating is better suited for game by game rather than as a whole because of what happens to the Pass Attempt/Completion ratio.

I also think we need to back up a bit in what we say here. No need to get snippy people. The Ignore Feature is right here available. The real life ignore feature of closing the thread is also available.

 

Actually, that's exactly how the stat works. NFL.com publishes seasonable passer rating (not quarterback rating), meaning they take all 16 (or less, if a QB is injured) games and compile the passer rating for all combined games and publish it as their seasonal passer rating. Tom Brady's 2010 passer rating was 111.0, for example.

CK is using the stat correctly. It is entirely possible to combine numbers from multiple games to get a cumulative passer rating. NFL.com endorses this method by their publishing of seasonal passer ratings.

The real problem here is that you dislike the result, so you bash the process.

 

I edited it long before your post. Check above.

I don't know why you have to get snippy. I'm not "bash[ing] the process". I'm saying that it is ineffective in it's implementation at this point, especially with a sample size of two games. PR is most effective over the course of a season, and on a game by game basis. There isn't a trend yet. In defense of myself, I have yet to reply to anyone, and just posted my take on it.

 

It's not an ineffective implementation. It's a standard implementation universally accepted as a legitimate method of tabulating the passer rating statistic. Again, the problem here is that you don't like what the stat is telling you—thus why you wrote "But can someone say in any of those games, he played like a 71.2?" The purpose of asking this rhetorical question is to demonstrate your disagreement with CK's standard use of the passer rating statistic. Yes, Chad Henne did play like a 71.2 rated passer over the two games he has played thus far in the 2011 preseason. Further, this number is in line with his career averages: 74.0 in 2008, 75.2 in 2009, 75.4 in 2010. That's the actual sample size: Chad Henne's entire NFL career.

And by the way, why is padre somehow off the hook for a. miscalculating passer rating and b. presenting passer rating as a percentage? This entire argument has spun off from his utter misuse and misunderstanding of the statistic.

 

Passer rating, QB Rating, whichever one calls it, is skewed toward YPA and TD passes. The reason why Henne was 83 in the first game was his YPA being so high. 9.6 as I recall. His 1 TD helped too. That more than offset his 50% comp pct or 2 ints.

 

Hey, if you think that the stats prove it all, enjoy.

 

That's a huge pet peeve of mine, and I see it regularly.

Henne's passer rating as a % is almost 45% on the dot.

 

Yards per attempt is actually pretty crippled in the passer rating calculation.

Also, I find it strange you would complain that touchdowns are overemphasized. Touchdowns are the entire point of offense.

Well, at least you no longer deny that you're simply dismissing what you don't want to hear.

 

Where'd he complain about TDs being overemphasized?

 

One time about 20 years ago, I was home alone in my house, watching Miami Buffalo about 11am Sunday morning. Games on the west coast start at 10am...anyway some neighbor called the cops because of all the yelling coming from my house. They assumed it was 2 people fighting. It was just me ripping some zebra a new arsehole for making a bad call against Miami. The cop kind of smiled as I told him, and just said try to keep it down as best you can.

 

I wasn't complaining.

YPA is not crippled at all in passer rating. How do you think Henne had an 83 his first game? Was it due to his 50% comp pct? Was it due to his 1 TD/2 int ratio? No, it was due to his lofty 9.6 yards per attempt. That more than offset the low comp pct and the negative td/int ratio.

 

The part where he says passer rating is skewed toward YPA and TD passes. The implication is that the stat is doing Henne a disservice and not accurately reflecting Henne's performance because Henne only has 1 TD over two games so far.

That doesn't mean passer rating is not accurately reflecting Henne's performance, it means Henne isn't scoring points. Which is fine, it's only preseason, and I suspect Sparano and Daboll are more concerned about getting Daniel Thomas and the other running backs work at the goal line than they are with pumping up Henne's passer rating in preseason. I just don't see justification for singling out PR as being touchdown-weighed. It would be odd if it weren't. A quarterback who throws touchdowns is better than a quarterback who doesn't throw touchdowns.

Then I'll concede poor word choice on my part. But I still don't see a point in highlighting the importance of touchdowns to the calculation of passer rating as you did in the post in question. Again, it would be odd if it didn't weigh touchdowns.

Look at YPA's multiplier in the calculation. Touchdowns per pass attempt and completion percentage are given weight over YPA. You can see this for yourself by taking Henne's second game numbers and adding just one touchdown to the calculation: he winds up going from an 87.8 rating to a 101 rating, a huge leap.

 

When teams do this against us in the preseason and were running vanilla..people dismiss it. When it's the other way around it suddenly matters.

 

From the post, I said straight up, if you want to take it on a game to game basis, that doesn't help. I suspect it was intentional to downplay the good things he's done so far, but that is just speculation. His number was 71.2, but individually, each was higher. If you don't think that shows an inherent flaw in Passer Rating, meh.

I already come in with a bias against Passer rating, not against ck.

I've found some of the critiques here substantive.

http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/a-brief-survey-of-critiques-of-the-nfl-qbr-formula/

 

I said, YPA and TD passes. Obviously TD passes should pad the rating. YPA though is more important than comp pct, and TD/Int ratio, which may surprise some people. Probably not you though.

 

In case anyone is interested this is the actual formula used...

NFL Quarterback Rating Formula
(National Football League)

a = (((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20
b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5
c = (9.5 - ((Int/Att) * 100)) / 4
d = ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4

a, b, c and d can not be greater than 2.375 or less than zero.

QB Rating = (a + b + c + d) / .06

It is a crazy formula...How CRAZY? For example in the 1st preseason game against the Falcons:

Henne...4 of 8, 77 yards, 1 TD, 2 int = 83.85 QB rating
Moore...11 of 18, 123 yards, 2 TD, 1 int = 95.37 QB rating

When adding the two together...
15 or 26, 200 yards, 3 TD, 3 int = 81.09 QB rating

Hmm...logic would be the QB rating would fall somewhere in between 83.85 and 95.37 when adding their stats together.

Throw in Delvin's 0 for 2 and the QB rating drops all the way down to 72.62...CRAZY!

Not a completely accurate system for reflecting a QB's play. For example, a QB that throws the ball away to avoid a sack is penalized whereas a QB that takes the sack is not affected at all. Incomplete passes are killer to a QB's rating as are interceptions of course.

There is good reason ESPN came out with their own Total QB Rating (QBR).

 

There are two flaws in passer rating.

1. The nonstandard range of numerical results. 158.3 is considered "perfect", and you get a 39.5 passer rating just for attempting one stinking pass. Not even completing, just attempting. That numerical range makes it tougher to identify and explain the difference in passer performances between, say, a 105 passer rating and a 115 passer rating. The football fan's brain wants 100 to be the best.

2. Modern QBs and modern passing rules skew passer rating higher than it used to be. 85 used to be damn near an elite performance; now it's substandard. An 85 rating puts you below David Garrard, and the Jags just drafted his replacement. This flaw actually works against Chad Henne, because even in an era where everyone and their dog can post a high passer rating, Henne's career is still around 75. That's… not good.

Yes, it's a crazy formula. But, more importantly, it is an accurate formula.

ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating states that Dan Orlovsky is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger.

The real reason ESPN came up with TQBR is to regain eyeballs lost to sites like Football Outsiders and their DVOA stat, CHFF and their aYPA and promotion of (defensive) passer rating, and so on.

YPA is hugely important, absolutely. But in terms of passer rating calculation, it's been watered down. I'd say it should be a larger contributor to the final passer rating figure, but the stat works well as-is.

 

So in two plays he racked up 200 first half yards and helped lead us to 17 first half points?

How dare Henne not throw for 400 yards in 2 quarters of play. Ludicrous I tell ya.

 

I wouldn't say accurate. It doesn't take into account things like dropped passes, deflections for interceptions, throwing the ball away vs. taking a sack, etc...

It punishes much to strongly for an incomplete pass. For example...

QB A: Team rushes for 1 yard on 1st down. On second down QB throws for a 2 yard completion. On 3rd down QB dumps ball off for a 4 yard pass. Result is 4th and 3 and team has to punt.
QB A: Rating: 2 for 2, 6 yards, 79.17 QB rating

QB B: Team rushes for 1 yard on 1st down. On second down QB hits TE ball goes threw his hands (thin Fasano). On 3rd down QB completes 11 yard pass for 1st down.
QB B Rating: 1 for 2, 11 yards, 66.67 QB rating

Clearly QB B was better in the situation above. However, according to the QB rating system it was QB A.

And of course there are those teams that love to pass when the ball is within 5 yards to the end zone. Talk about slanting the rating in favor of a QB. Had Daboll allowed Henne to pass the ball from the 1 yard line instead of running it 4 times and if Miami did score on a 1 yard pass Henne's QB rating rockets to 101.25 for a 1 yard pass.

Accurate? No, not completely. But I will say that by the end of the season when a QB has thrown 500 passes QB's will rise to their own level. At top will be Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Rogers, etc...But that would be true of almost any QB Rating system within reason.

 

Wow CK you're really under attack, LOL. We love you and the board would be much less without you. That was really an excellent write-up regardless. I only saw the first half highlights and a little of the actual game online; I think you're being hypercritical, and there's nothing wrong with that in my book. It means Henne is developing.

Again, though, best write-up I've seen on any website...Kudos!