Orton Trade Failure - Best for Miami

Apparently that's a trick question, Raf.

 

I don't think we'd win the same amount of games with Henne or Orton, I think Orton will win us more games. Orton over a 16 game span will have a few huge games, Henne is good for a few good games here and there, I don't think Henne can win games by himself, I think Orton has shown big play ability, Henne has not. Orton does not throw a lot of picks, if a Qb can control the ball for this team and make a couple of big plays I think we can win 10 games or more and have a good shot at the playoffs and a much better shot at the division.

If our Qb throws almost 20 picks we aren't making the playoffs. I know we had some bad luck with missed INTs and the Pitt game was not a loss but honestly that stuff happens to teams that don't take of business and leave things in the hands of the refs or need turnovers to compensate for bad offense.

 

All Henning's fault, I forgot

 

I reviewed every pick Henne threw last season. Half of them were the result of doing exactly as he was told. You put him in a better system and he'll produce like Orton. Orton got better b/c he was given easier reads and easier throws. He didn't get anymore accurate or any smarter.

 

DL batting balls, WRs tipping balls (to Ed Reed of all people) and falling down, lots of bad break INTs last year.

 

I guess I don't see how Orton actually producing under a better system is a reason not to pick him up. Henne, you hope will produce, while Orton has.....seems the best bet for a successful season would be to pickup the guy that has produced versus hoping someone that hasn't been productive starts to produce. I don't think Henne is a turnover machine but I don't think he's blameless for his picks, I think thats wishful thinking and extreme over analyzing.

 

Drexl is dead man. Clarence wasted that boy.

 

Friend Da 'Fins:
"You simply cannot afford to waste the talent accumulated on offense and the greatness potential of the defense on Chad Henne."
end of this conversation. this is an opportunity that needs to be acted upon ...

 

Nobody said Henne was blameless. I think Henne has poor footwork and struggles with the deep pass. But if you look at the picks that were his fault and at the picks that were Orton's fault you find that they're about equally turnover prone. I've been evaluating QBs for years and one of the best predictors of how good a QB is is how they do on 3rd down and under pressure. And Henne does better in those situations than Orton does. I don't believe that getting a QB who does poorly in those situations will ever be the answer. There's a reason that two regimes have decided Orton wasn't good enough and I think it's b/c they've seen him in enough of those situations. Fans tend to just look at results and that is under-analyzing.

 

I actually thought a lot of the DL batting balls down was on Henne. I don't think he did a good enough job of using his passing lanes. But I also find that's an experience based/dependent thing. He should be able to improve that part.

 

I havent read the entire thread, but how do we know we failed to trade for Orton? What would constitue "passing" the test as opposed to "failing" it? Do we know what happened? What if Denver said give us a 1st or no deal....would it still be a failure? I mean jesus christ people, you act like we had the chance to get Drew Brees again. Its Kyle Orton. Kyle ****ing Orton. Lets relax.

 

I would like to nominate this for post of the year.

Im not sure why anyone views Orton as the savior. He's an upgrade over Henne, yes, but he's still not the guy you want to continue to build this franchise around. From the sounds of it, Orton wanted around 8 mil a year, and Denver potentially wanted our 2nd and Starks. Rumours of course, but if that indeed was the case, In no way shape or form can I fault the FO for not pulling the trigger on this deal. The media, and fans need to let it go already.

 

If we caved in to those demands for Kyle Orton........ THEN it would've been a "Orton trade failure"

 

I was on the Henne bandwagon at the beginning of last season until I watched him actually play. Looked like he played with FEAR! Slow to make a decision, late on throws, poor location (even when caught, not hitting players in stride), took unnecessary sacks and afraid to take shots down the field. As bad as his stats were they were padded by continually dumping the ball off. Players around him lost confidence in him. And then there were those "dumb" interceptions that Henne is prone to throw. Seems to do fine and then WTF? Who was Henne throwing to other than the defender?

Given 4 years of starting at a major college and 2 years in the NFL after getting to sit his rookie year Henne should be a lot farther than he is if he is to be even a decent QB, let alone great one. Reality check...he is just NOT a good NFL QB. Nothing suggests he will be.

I don't think Orton is elite, but he is a BIG step up from Henne. Much better game manager as evidence by his TD/Int ratio:

Orton has thrown 71 TD (3.6% of attempts) to 48 int (2.5% of attempts)

Henne has thrown 27 TD (2.8% of attempts) to 33 int (3.5% of attempts)

Miami has a solid team. They can make a run at the playoffs with a QB who can manage the game and not make those dumb turnovers Henne is prone to do. Orton takes care of the football much better than Henne.

Orton's only bad year was his rookie year when Grossman's injury forced him to play. His receiver's were Muhammad, Gage and TE Desmond Clark (one of the worst groups of receivers ever assembled).

Orton is much better at throwing the deep ball which will spread out the defense. Something Henne has never been able to do. Passes thrown last year over 20 yards:

Orton: 26 comp, 63 att, 41.27% comp, 845 yards, 13.41 ypa, 7 TD, 2 int, 112.37 QB rating

Henne: 9 comp, 40 att, 22.5% comp, 304 yards, 7.6 ypa, 1 TD, 3 int, 35.83 QB rating

Which QB do you want taking shots down the field of play?

Thinking that Miami is better off not getting Orton and having Henne as the starter is pure FANTASY!

 

I don't see many disagreeing with you about Orton being better than Henne. He is.

The fact is, you don't pay Orton 8 million a year and trade a high draft pick for him. He's better than Henne, but by how much? He's into his 7th nfl year and hasnt been the greatest QB in the world. He is not our future.

Orton > Henne

Agreed.

But Orton is not worth a 2-3 draft pick and a HUGE contract.

 

I've read Mike Klis' account of what really happened and I think his is probably the most accurate. What it all boils down to is this:

The Dolphins showed their interest in Orton, but neither the Dolphins nor Broncos traded offers on compensation. The first step was talking to Orton himself about his contract and the shape of a new contract extension, which is a step that the Broncos gave several teams permission to take with Kyle. The process never got beyond this, not with the Dolphins, not with any other team. Orton wanted too much money. The Dolphins were "close" to an agreement on a restructured contract last Tuesday night, which would have put the ball in the court of the Dolphins & Broncos agreeing on trade compensation, but then the Dolphins had second thoughts, and the wheels fell off from there.

The Dolphins are the Iron Curtain when it comes to information flow to their own local media. But the Broncos are not, and Mike Klis is a well respected local reporter there, and I suspect he has the right of it.

In the end, what this comes down to for me, is last Tuesday night the Dolphins and Orton were "close" to making this happen, and then the Dolphins got second thoughts. They'll now have to live with that decision for better or worse. It might be they made the absolute correct decision. It might also be they made the wrong choice. We'll see.

 

Sounds about right, he's not worth all of that cap.

 

My guess it is the best long term decision, however isn't good short term.

 

But Orton would've had to wait until tomorrow (if cba is ratified) to even get on the practice field. Henne has been working most offseason with the guys building chemistry etc. I dunno how good Orton would've been "short term" learning a new system, orginization, teammates, playbook etc in such a short amount of time.

 

I do think as of right now Orton is a better QB than Henne. Orton would have been better short term because he is better at throwing balls to wide receivers and making decisions.

 

Not really a new system, IMO. He knew Josh McDaniels' playbook and the route concepts McDaniels liked, so he knows Daboll's as well.

I think you're overstating the amount of "head start" Henne really has on this system. Even Sparano just said there's no way they'll have it all installed by Week 1, they'll just have to focus on weekly game plans. And Davone Bess said much the same.

 

That, too.

Whether it's best long term though does depend on the compensation, which NOBODY really knows IMO, because the Broncos and Dolphins didn't even get that far. You have Elway denying he ever asked for a 2nd round pick and Mike Klis saying the discussion never got that far, other sources saying it would have been a 3rd rounder, others saying it would have been a 2nd plus Starks, etc. I don't think anyone really knows because they never got that far.

If the price would have been a 2nd and Randy Starks, and a year from now the Dolphins trade that 2nd round pick to move up and take a Matt Barkley, who ends up a true franchise quarterback, then obviously we'll all be thanking our lucky stars this trade never happened.

 

When I think of long term, I am thinking more of the contract. Why would Orton come to Miami and sign a 1 or 2 year contract when he could stay in Denver and make 8 million dollars then becoming a free agent at the end of the year? The only reason why Orton would want to come to Miami is if Miami makes a long term commitment to him or give him tons of money.

 

I think the decision making part is in question. The difference between Orton in Chicago and Orton in Denver is that the route combinations used in Denver provided easier reads and easier decisions. Some systems are just more QB friendly, that's why QBs look good in Philly and then look like crap when they go to a less QB friendly system.

 

I do not agree. His decision making in Chicago is ahead of Henne's in Miami.

 

I generally agree with you, although I think more goes into it than just the system of plays. I think the whole environment is a factor, including average starting field position, pass protection, pass defenses faced, etc. And luck/chance. I think Henne was unusually unlucky last year witht he number of tipped INTs and the very small number of potential interceptions dropped. When Orton was in Chicago I saw him as very similar to how I see Henne now. I see Orton as somewhat safer than Henne based on what he did the last 2 years, but not very likely to do much better here. I do think we can win with either guy though. Assuming our system and OL improve, I think either guy can put up the kind of numbers that Orton put up the last 2 years. If that happens and if the defense is as good as I think it can be, this team can make the playoffs and once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen. If the defense is Top 5 and the offense can just get to middle-of-the-pack, we should win 10-11 games or so. If luck/chance finally turns our way, it can be a game or 2 better than that.

 

We are talking the QB position. As a fan I don't really care how much he makes. Miami is under the salary cap. I want the best possible team on the field. When Henne throws and interception this year I am not going to say, "That is OK because Orton would have cost Miami $8 million this year. So I am glad we have Henne since he doesn't cost as much." It isn't as if they are passing on another player out if they were to sign Orton.

Is a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick worth it when it comes to upgrading the QB position? ABSOLUTELY!!! We are talking about THEE position that makes the most difference between winning and losing. The pieces are in place for this team to make a run at the playoffs. What kills that is poor QB play. Sure makes trading for Orton worth it in my book.

 

Orton doesnt win us a superbowl. So why take draft picks away from the next regime in next years draft (a qb friendly draft) for another ****ing stop-gap? Im sick of "serviceable" qbs, niether henne or orton will be our franchises future star qb, so why spend the money (cap room), effort and draft picks on Orton to be 1 - 3 wins better than Henne?

 

I agree. I am using the word "system" for simplicity sake, but I mean it to be a more all-encompassing term. I don't believe that it really matters whether you run a west coast offense or a Coryell offense, for example. I think you can win with either. The important part is that you make it as easy as possible for your team to succeed vs. making it as difficult as possible like what we had last year. That involves everything from the plays to the teaching to the timing of plays, etc. So when I say "system" I am referring to all of that.

 

The "team" can win a Super Bowl with decent QB play. Orton does give Miami a much greater chance than Henne. The goal would be to get to the playoffs and take it one game at a time from there.

I truly don't understand your logic. The reality is there are only a handful of "franchise" QBs. Other teams are left to get the best player they can at the most important/impacting position on the field. Your position is if Miami can't have a franchise QB then who cares how much the QB sucks? Huh...

Instead of upgrading the QB position we should hang on to that 3rd draft pick so we can take another OL lineman next year that will probably not make a difference? Personally, I think spending a 3rd round pick for a QB that delivers a 71/48 TD/int ratio over a QB that delivers a 27/33 TD/int ratio is more than worth it.

You really don't think spending a draft pick to get a player that you admit will give us 1-3 wins is worth it? 2-3 more wins the past two years would have put us in the playoffs. Makes no sense to me.

 

With us being in agreement on that, I am curious about your opinion of Henning in 2008 and 2009. I know you are very critical of him and I agree that he did a poor job last year. Where we might differ is that I thought he was very good in 2008 and was still pretty good in 2009 (and would have looked much better if Pennington had not gotten hurt). I don't believe he went from a longtime respected OC to an idiot in one year -- I just think he had a bad year and never really got on the same page with Henne and his skill-set. So I think the problem was not so much the universe of plays in the playbook, but how and when they were called and an inability/refusal to tailor it to Henne. Had Pennington been healthy the last 2 years I think the "system" probably would have looked fine (although the OL instability would have had an affect too).

I'm not sure what to expect of Daboll. His results in Cleveland were less than stellar, but so was the talent level there.

 

I think Henning just does one thing and that one thing depends on the running game working. Even the running attack he uses depends on blocking at the pivot. I don't think he is capable of adapting when that one thing isn't working. In '08 and '09, the running game worked enough. I do believe that his passing concepts were simplistic in those years. I don't think he knows how to make the passing game easier for his QBs other than by using his running game. I also don't think he is a particularly good teacher. I thought that so many of the offensive fundamentals were poor in all the years. I hate the fact that none of our offensive players ever carry out a play action fake. I hate that we can't run a screen pass. That's all on the OC. So no, I don't think he was a good OC in '08 and '09. I think that the talent he had fit the one thing he knew how to do. I do think that last year he hit a new low. It seemed to me that at times he was almost actively trying to sabotage the offense. My only guess is that it became an ego thing, "you're going to do it my way", "I'm in charge".