Area of hope for next year's offense (and Henne)

And this what I feel Henne is missing. I like Hartline, but I'd love to have a #2 who owns the position..... who is a very reliable playmaker downfield (at least the 10+ yard range, can make guys miss, pick up chunk yards, maybe run over DBs, with great hands, big catch radius, can make a defense pay in single coverage, great blocker, who attacks the ball and is a real threat to score-- especially in the redzone). IMO that's one of the missing pieces to this offense.

 

Bowe ran a 4.4 on his pro day... and Sims-Walker ran a 4.35 at the combine. That's a decent bit faster than Hartline's 4.49 pro day.

You're right, speed doesn't always matter. There are other factors, and guys like Bowe have them. He's got about 30 pounds on Hartline. He has the strength and physicality to attack the ball down field and use his size/strength advantage to out-position a DB on a ball. You lose this with Hartline. With Brian, you basically have to rely on him beating his man with a good move and then dropping it in the bucket b/c he's not the most ideal & trustworthy guy you want out-battling a DB. He's also not the guy who can naturally create separation between the ball and the defender by using only his body like most of your natural down field catchers like Fitz can.

There are a handful of guys this draft who would fit this bill but don't have elite speed, but if you can't get these guys, then you basically need speed to make up for it. As long as the guy has to be respected downfield, then that's all that matters IMO, and Hartline is not a guy who DCs spend hours worrying about. He's not a scorer. He doesn't have great shake and bake to turn a 7 yard catch into a 50 yard gain. He doesn't have the strength to break tackles. He doesn't have the hands to make the spectacular catch, and he doesn't have the catch in traffic ability that you'd want in your down field guy if he lacks speed to run by everyone. But the most significant characteristic-- he doesn't alter coverage like a Greg Little, Jon Baldwin, Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon, or Leonard Hankerson would (who all have about 4.5 speed).

Bottom line for me is: Yes, Hartline can occasionally get deep which is great (if you're not the main deep guy), but does that mean you can trust him downfield 100% if you're a QB. IMO there aren't enough compliments to his game to trust him 100%. Granted all this is in my opinion, so I respect what you have to say about it too.

 

So I guess Rivers is a flawed NFL QB.

3 WR sets: 112 QB Rating... 73%.... 10.5 ave... 9 TDs... 5 INTs... 50% 1st downs
2 WR sets:.. 85 QB Rating... 68%..... 7.9 ave....2 TDs... 3 INTs... 36% 1st downs

 

I agree that he does..... but the intangibles that Bowe possesses, the ones that got him drafted in the first round, make up for his 4.4-4.5 speed. His intangibles make him a threat downfield. Hartline lacks those intangibles to make him a threat downfield.

We can "Madden" this out if anyone likes.

How do you rate Hartline as a downfield receiving threat?

1. Separation ability:
2. Speed:
3. Acceleration:
4. Physicalness:
5. Strength:
6. Hands:
7. Spectacular catch:
8. Catch in traffic:
9. Elusiveness:
10: Ability to break tackles:
11: Big play ability:
12: Chunk yardage ability:
13: Red zone threat:
14. Blocking:
15. Ability to attrack coverage away from Marshall, Bess, and Fasano:
16. Clutch play ability:
17. High pointing:
18. Tracking ability:
19: Ability to adjust to the ball in air:
20: Explosiveness:
21: Body Control:
22: Balance:
23: Feet control/ability to stretch the sidelines:
24: Ability to draw the PI call:
25: Route running
26: TD potential

Am I missing anything?

Personally, since we only have 1 position (#2 WR) open to be our downfield threat by default (since Marshall and Bess don't really qualify), then I want that guy to excel is as many of the above traits as possible. Yes, Hart gets a lot of yards, but so do Marshall and Bess. What Hart doesn't offer much of is TD production. So IMO it doesn't matter if he has 1600 yards, b/c if he's not a real threat to score then the yards don't matter b/c we can find a LOT of guys to be the #2 here who can gain lots of yards w/o scoring many TDs. At the end of the day, I'll emphasize more TDs from the #2 position than I will yards. We can move the ball, and we'll do so even better when the line is fixed and the ground game is upgraded. What we have a problem with is a lack of playmakers & scoring.

 

Bowe ran a 1.52 10 yard split, 2.52 20 yard, and a 6.81 3 cone.

Hartline ran a 1.50, 2.56, and a 6.65 3 cone.

Over the 1st 10 yards, Hart is barely quicker. 2nd 10 Bowe is quicker. 20-40 Bowe is almost a 10th faster. 6.65 to 6.81 isn't a huge difference IMO but it is quicker. 6.81 isn't anything to sneeze at though, especially combined with his physical attributes.

Bottom line: Whom would you rather have as your downfield target if you only get one: Bowe?..... or Hartline?

 

After seeing how successful we are on 3rd and normal type downs along with being good on 1st down, there's 1 guy in the draft that IMO emphatically screams that we need to draft him without having to use a 1st round pick on.... and that guy is WR- Greg Little, UNC.

I can't think of anyone more ideal for this offense based on its philosophy. If we want to control the clock, pound the rock, and utilize a high percentage short-intermediate passing game that Henne, Marshall, and Bess thrive in, then we're going to need a #2 WR who thrives in it also..... but a #2 who is also a threat to make plays down field, score TDs, and pick up chunk yards.

When I say Little screams the #2 role opposite Marshall, I mean he SCREAMS it. He's like having another Marshall on the field, but only with better downfield ability IMO. The key to this possession type philosophy is to have guys who allow you to run it while at the same time offering the big play from low risk passes. Hartline doesn't really offer this. Little offers it in a BIG way. Like Marshall, you can hit Little all game long in the 1-10 yard range and just let him rack up the yards. He's 6'3, 220 and is a beast on the field. He plays WR like a LB, is a monster in run blocking, is elusive like Marshall, will run DBs over for fun, and will outplay a DB on a ball all game long like Hakeem Nicks will. If you want a redzone duo with Marshall and 1 more big stud, then here you go! Greg played above the rim while playing basketball at UNC, so beating a CB on a fade or jump ball is chump change for him. He has natural hands that can catch passes in front of him, so his catching radius is outstanding which will make it more difficult for DBs to break up passes IMO. He doesn't wait for the ball to come to him like Hartline does; he attacks it. He offers you most of everything on the long list in the post above outside of great speed.

Bottom line: In a possession type offense like ours, IMO this is a guy who will do nothing but consistently move the chains like no one else in the draft or FA while offering the big play ability in the process. He would fit our offense like a glove. If we had Marshall & Little on the outside, our ground game would be upgraded instantly, and a premium TE would probably see a lot of open field down the middle. If we could grab a seam splitting TE, that would be awesome. A #1 TE who can do it all (like Kyle Rudolph) would be ideal if we're going to a lot of 3 WR sets. The key IMO is getting these guys space to work with on every down, b/c with a little space, they can be deadly.

I'd also think about adding some speed to rotate in at the slot who can draw coverage away from Marshall & Little to give them more space. If we're picturing Marshall and Little running their typical short routes, then we'd need someone with speed to keep defenses honest- keep the safeties a bit preoccupied, which Bess doesn't do. Jerrel Jernigan is IMO the best slot WR in the draft and is built like a small running back. He's the closest thing to a DeSean Jackson type (He'll run a 4.3+ with outstanding elusiveness, balance, and body control). We'd need an X factor on offense, and Jerrel would DEFINITELY qualify as such..... and he'd do wonders for our return game. I'm not looking to replace Bess, but I would like to use Jerrel to pose the threat of "opening up the field" more on 1st & 2nd downs when we're supposed to be running the ball and on 3rd & long when Bess is ineffective. Marshall & Little would be unstoppable if they had a guy or 2 to give them more space to turn short catches into big plays.

I've posted Little's videos before, but I'll do it again in case you haven't seen them. When you're watching him, imagine his effectiveness with how often we use the short passing game. Tell me you wouldn't want to see these massive stiff arms on a weekly basis!!! (keep in mind that he really only played WR full time for 1 season)

[video=youtube;VRKB-KIQMg4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRKB-KIQMg4[/video]


This one is of him as a freshman as mostly a RB & some WR:
[video=youtube;0l0XtAYouoo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l0XtAYouoo[/video]


Jerrel Jernigan. The 2nd quick video (TD vs Oklahoma St) about sums up what to expect from him. I also put his highlight clip somewhere on this thread. He's an exciting player to watch.

[video=youtube;EkvAR-KYjeg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkvAR-KYjeg[/video]

[video=youtube;ZfWeDVwFaJc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfWeDVwFaJc[/video]

 

I respectfully disagree. Our offense is already in a box; I'm trying to come up with ways to get us out of it, and addressing the #2 WR position is one way to do it. A guy like Greg Little would have a field day kicking that box down.

Exactly, it's how you use the guys, and the guys like I'm describing (Little) would allow our offense to utilize them extremely well and see great production from the position. I don't think we're utilizing Hartline incorrectly; I feel that he still leaves us missing something even when used correctly.

I agree with you about needing to use him more.... but that doesn't change my mind about wanting to upgrade our #2 position. Call it personal opinion.

I agree, but we do need a threat in the return game, so if we can find a speed that doubles as both, then that would be nothing but beneficial IMO. IMO it's not the ability to get vertical that matters as much as it is the threat of the ability to get deep. A little speed creates that threat. Hartline, Bess, Marshall, or Fasano really don't for the most part. There's no one on this team that DCs are saying "Hey whatever we do, let's make sure so and so doesn't beat us deep today." I don't think that's something to be taken insignificantly. Speed does in fact matter; it allows for big plays, chunk yardage, momentum changes, and extra TDs..... all of which we're lacking in. I don't want a team full of it, but how much is it to ask for ONE guy with legitimate speed? Honestly, is 1 guy too much to ask for? Let me ask you this: If Hartline ran a 4.3, would he have still been drafted in the 4th round? I rest my case.

I agree that a young QB like Henne will definitely impede a WRs TD production. I won't deny that at all, but I will not say that Hartline or Bess are scorers. There's nothing about their game that say they're TD machines, or even close to it. There are too many limitations on their game to allow them to become legit scoring threats. I could make a long list of these.

Bess has 206 receptions with only 7 TDs. That's a lot of opportunities to make plays that don't happen, and you can't put that on the QB b/c he had only 1 TD with Pennington, so he's actually doing better with Henne. If Bess were a playmaker, 206 opportunities would have a longer pass play than 37 yards, more TDs than 7, a better YPC than 10.2, and more 20+ than 18. His longest TD is 34 yards. He doesn't have the size/speed to be a vertical threat and he doesn't have the size to be a legit redzone threat.

If Hartline were a scorer, he'd have more than 4 TDs in 2 years. He's not a redzone threat, and he's not going to bust a lot of tackles to score, nor will he juke multiple defenders at will for an easy TD.

No TDs from these guys are EASY TDs; therefore, they are not playmakers or scoring threats. Hakeem Nicks is a scoring threat. DeSean Jackson is a scoring threat. I'm sorry, but Hartline & Bess will never be confused for Jackson or Nicks. Using a 3rd round pick on Greg Little to upgrade Hartline would be an absolute bargain. Marshall is our only scoring threat, and to be an elite team, I don't think you can get by with having only 1, especially if that guy depends on his other WRs/TEs to get him space to make plays with.

 

I agree with all this. Brandon's lack of big plays downfield for the reasons you mentioned bothers me, but what bothers more are on the 95% of the plays that we use him the most. His biggest asset is his YAC ability, yet it's nearly half that of Bess, Hartline, and Fasano's. That's not b/c he forgot how to make plays; it's b/c Bess, Hart, and Fasano as a group don't give him enough space to let him make those amazing plays. The main reason I want the #2 WR position upgraded isn't to have a vertical threat a few extra times per game; it's to help give Brandon more space during those 60 or so times that he's catching the ball inside of 10 yards. We're missing out here in a huge way, and it's hurting us.

We don't pay Brandon $40 million to make plays down field; we pay him to do what Brandon does best, which is short, controlled, low-risk passes that can be turned into extra YAC and TDs. The personnel around him do not allow him to earn his money here. We could've found a lot of WRs to catch the ball 8 yards down the field and get tackled immediately for a fraction of the cost. Part of a great team is doing everything possible to maximizing everyone's play b/c just throwing them on the field won't suffice. There needs to be symbiotic relationships where players play off each other's strengths etc. We don't have that. We have a bunch of guys running around the field within 10 yards of each other that make it very difficult to keep from being tackled so quickly after the catch. That's not acceptable, and it creates too much stress & pressure on a team to operate on a higher, mistake-free, and more efficient level that it desires. Moving the chains 7 times for a TD is a more difficult and demanding than moving it 5 times. There more times the chains have to move, the greater your margin for error becomes, in this case- punting, fumble, INT.... or FG instead of TD. Over the coarse of a game or season, this can add up.

 

Not trying to be rude, but I'm not understanding your intention or point.

 

I agree with everything you said, and thanks for the kind words. I'd prefer to trade back for Ryan Williams and his explosiveness, too, while picking up an extra 2nd in the process. Holmes would be a nice option opposite Marshall.... or even next to him if we play Brandon in the slot. I'd be happy with Jones, too. How much more space would Brandon have with Holmes next to him and a seam busting TE opposite? Thoughts?

If we could nab Mankins and keep Richie at Center, I think a dose of Bradshaw and Ryan Williams would be killer! IMO the TE and #2 WR upgrade are important to really making it take off. Brad Smith to round it out would be great, too. I'm tired of Ronnie in the WC, but I wouldn't be upset seeing Brad back there from time to time.

If we fail to land a WR threat in FA, then I'm all in for the guys that I've mentioned: Little, Blackmon, or Baldwin as the big bodied #2 and Jernigan as the speedy x factor slash return guy.

Only 1 guy as far as I know spells dual threat TE upgrade over Fasano and thats Rudolph. If Ryan Williams is given a 2nd round grade, IMO it's possible to trade back and grab both Rudolph AND Ryan Williams..... and then Little in the 3rd or 4th if we need a WR. Those 3 would change our entire dynamics on offense. If that were our entire draft, I'd be completely happy. Outside of Rudolph, I think you're looking at complimentary #2 TEs who can be an upgrade in the passing game. DJ Williams would be nice based on how we use our offense (he's smart, quick, good speed, understands coverage, and can turn a dump off pass into a nice gain, and he's not a horrible in line blocker either.... just don't really want him blocking on the move. Definitely more of a playmaker than Fasano. Scheffler would be a nice downfield #2 option, no?

 

I'm not saying that we need 2 number ones. Rather I'm saying that I'd like to have a #2 who has some of the intangibles that make Bowe a great threat, similar to you liking Malcolm Floyd. That's the page I'm on. Well, if we had more threats on the field, then Brandon would be more of a threat than he is b/c defenses would have at least 1 extra body to worry about. I don't think teams really worry about Bess, Hart, Fasano, Ronnie, or Ricky..... and since Marshall can't do it by himself b/c he's not a speed guy, this pretty much handcuffs him in the playmaking department. DeSean Jackson's speed allows him to score no matter who is on the field. Marshall doesn't have that luxury. The guy needs help from others there.... and he needs an OC & HC who don't wimp out and play for FGs instead of TDs or go to the WC instead of throwing him a lob over a smaller DB.

 

I said it in the post or 2 above this, but there are plenty of guys who offer this type of play w/o needing 2 number 1s. Floyd is this kind of big bodied guy and he's not a #1. Greg Little would fill this role w/o costing us a 1st or 2nd round pick to do so. I just honestly don't feel that Hartline fits the bill for what this team needs as a #2, not only to get the most from the #2 position, but to also get the most from our other WRs, TE, and RBs.

IMO looking solely at Hartline's stats only account for his individual performance (as if he were the only person on the offense that mattered); his stats don't take into account how he affects the rest of the offense like I mentioned above. It doesn't reflect how many yards Marshall isn't getting when defenses can pay him more attention. His stats don't reflect his influence on the ground game.... or drives converted into TDs rather than FGs..... or FGs & TDs rather than punts or crucial fumbles. His stats also don't show how many more big plays, receptions, or TDs he might've had if he were more talented than he is.

On the Haden INT vs Cleveland: would a guy like Malcolm Floyd, Williams, or Garcon have let that happen? I'm inclined to say "probably not". That INT and the fumble vs Pitt are 2 huge plays that could've ended in Wins if they didn't happen. Stuff like that doesn't show up in his stat column either. Besides, Hartline is just like Fasano. They're the beneficiary of not having anyone to compete with catches. He was our default #2 b/c we had no one else to challenge for it. Who else would play #2? Moore or Wallace? Do you want those guys subbing in? I sure don't. So Hart has greater numbers b/c he had more opportunities. Same with Fasano. His stats look great until you realize that we didn't have another TE catch a pass all season until Sunday. When you combine the league's TE production, we actually rank 3rd or 4th to last in the league.

 

I agree with you on this....... but to be devil's advocate here, if we're only giving Hartline 1 shot downfield per game, then we need to be focusing on the plays where he's not running downfield. In those plays I feel he could be upgraded tremendously b/c he's not the guy who will break lots of tackles, make crazy catches, or juke guys with regularity for extra YAC. He's just not a playmaker, and we're sorely lacking that. He does a lot of things well which make him a good all around receiver, but there's nothing individually that he does that really jumps out at you.

I'd prefer to upgrade the #2 spot with a playmaker and let Hartline be our utility WR who can rotate in at all 3 positions. IMO he'd be great in the slot on 1st, 2nd down, and 3rd and long when Bess is basically useless. Besides, we need depth badly, and teams with depth still use their #4 WRs. Right now he'd be starting with our #2 being injured..... and when Marshall was injured, he'd be starting then, so it's not like he'd be bumped to the practice squad or pulling thorns out of his butt. Of course this is all my opinion, UAB.

 

exactly the reason to upgrade our #2 so that Marshall can get more space to make his #1 receiver plays. Our #2 could do these things b/c Marshall and a good ground game demands respect. If Marshall is better than our #2, then our #2 will see less attention in coverage.... or maybe be paired up on a DB whom he can take better advantage of than Hartline. A #2 CB playing against a guy like Little is asking for problems, especially if the DB is undersized. Upgrading Hartline can create more mismatches on the field, and as NE shows us so well, is a great way to be productive. Little can be moved all over the place to create these mismatches...... and having Little on the field would allow us to move Marshall around more too..... even line them up next to each other with Marshall in the slot and Hartline opposite them. IMO Bess should not be thought of as a staple of this offense on 1st & 2nd downs. Doing so isn't thinking outside the box IMO and is leaving a lot of potential opportunities on the field.

 

IMO many of us are so stuck in the "Bess is our slot guy, Hart is our #2" and that's that..... yet many people complain about how boring and predictable we are. How is Bess=full time slot, Hart=full time #2 making us less predictable? We should have the personnel to be able to move guys all around the field for our benefit. To do so, we need other options to go with Bess in the slot, and we need an upgrade at #2 so that if Marshall plays a little slot, that the #2 is good enough to be a #1 on the play. Seriously, if we want to play Brandon in the slot occasionally now, we're left with Bess & Hart on the outside. What defense does this combination scare? Our current cast allows us no mobility in this regard.

 

One thing I will say: is that I doubt that this team spends this much time and energy grooming Henne for the position only to give up on him after a sophomore season when the offense has had as much overall trouble & injury as this one has seen. IMO they will continue working to develop this kid till they're certain there's nothing more he has to offer.

I'm sure this staff already knows that he's a good QB on 1st down, and that we have the best 3rd & normal conversion passing team in the NFL with Henne. They, too, could be thinking that if we can get our ground game operating, then why can't this kid be great at 2nd down when we're not in so many 2nd & longs. I don't see why, after improving the offense, he can't develop into a 90 rating QB if he's already an 89 on 1st down, 89 in the redzone, and a 119 on 3rd & normal..... and an 89 in the 1st QTR and a 97 in the 3rd qtr.

Right now we get him in trouble in 2nd & long and 3rd & long..... and b/c we have TOOOOO f***** many of them.

On 2nd and <6 yards, Henne has a 107 QB rating.... 75%..... 6.9 ave.... 0 INTs..... with 71% of these attempts going for 1st down. Can anyone say this kid is money on 2nd and 3rd and manageable?!!!

On 2nd and 8+ yards, Henne has a 59 QB rating......56%.......4.2 ave.... 3 INTs.... with 21% 1st downs.

*Our lack of consistent ground game on 1st down puts us in nearly 4 times as many 2nd & 8-10 passing situations (81 vs 24), and it's hurting us tremendously. This coupled with Chad's 50 QB rating on 3rd & 8+ yards is a major reason why Henne's overall production isn't good. How would our passing game look if we could pick up 4-5 yards on 1st down on a much more consistent clip since there's a ton of room for improvement here?

Considering how ridiculous our conversion rate is on 2nd and 3rd down & normal situations, we'd constantly be moving the chains. Think about it. 4 yards on 1st down sets us up for roughly a 71% conversion on 2nd alone if we decided to pass. If we ran instead and picked up 3 yards, then we're in a 63% conversion rate on 3rd & 3-7. I'd have to believe that Henne's 2nd & <6 conversion (71%) combined with his 3rd & 3-7 conversion (63%) are probably tops in the NFL. I'll look it up to see. If so, man a solid ground game truly would mean the world of difference in our offense and passing success.

 

Glad you like these guys too. Natural talent up the wazoo!!! He makes the game seem easy. I firmly believe he'll quickly become a man among boys in the NFL like Dez and Hakeem Nicks did. What are your honest thoughts on Little after seeing where our strengths on offense and the passing game lie? Do you think he would fit in well? I've been really diggin Jernigan by the way.