Area of hope for next year's offense (and Henne)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, Dec 29, 2010.

  1. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That doesn't mean it has to be dumbed down. Actually its the opposite. We have too much of a dumbed down, predictable offense. And Henne is absolutely a drop back passer. You put him in NE's offense (or Detroit's, SD's, Denver's, etc) and he's easily more effective. Henne's skill set isn't all that limiting. He may never be that top 5 type that can work in any system, but he would be a damn site better in 75% of the offenses in the league.
     
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  2. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I think at one point he was 109 vs the blitz which was top 3 in the NFL IIRC.
     
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  3. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    You blame Henne for that? Wow dude you really are out to get this guy. Bro that one is totally on the OC who is a stubborn old mule and refuses to move Marshall around at all. There was one game where we saw Bess get a deep route with no success. Also Curtis got a deep route with no success. I haven't once seen Marshall lined up in the slot with a straight deep route attacking the middle of the field all season and you are putting that on the QB. Things are worse than I thought. Reminds me of the original Frankenstein film where the Doctor built the Monster who doesn't quite understand his surroundings but yet the people have to blame someone so they lynch the Monster without the knowledge of facts.
     
  4. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Ask and you shall receive:

    1st down passing.
    Henne.... 89 QB rating..... ..68%..... 8.4 ave.... 5 TDs.... 6 INTs... 34% of attempts for 1st downs.
    Ryan...... 82 QB rating........59%..... 6.2 ave.....5 TDs.....2 INTs... 27%
    Flacco:... 99 QB rating........64%..... 6.8 ave.....7 TDs.....0 INTs... 30%
    Bradford..67 QB rating........60%......5.7 ave.....2 TDs.....6 INTs....22%
    Freeman..93 QB rating........61%..... 7.6 ave.....8 TDs.....3 INTs....31%

    Rodgers..110 QB rating.......72%..... 9.4 ave.... 7 TDs.....2 INTs....33%
    Brady.....109 QB rating.......74%..... 8.1 ave.....6 TDs.....0 INTs....34%
    Rivers.....119 QB rating.......71%... 10.2 ave... 13 TDs....3 INTs....44%
    Peyton..... 97 QB rating.......66%.....7.4 ave.....10 TDs....3 INTs....29%
    Brees....... 87 QB rating.......68%.... 6.7 ave..... 9 TDs....7 INTs....25%

    When you add Henne's 119 QB Rated 3rd & 3-7 with his 88 Rated 1st down, it seems to me you get a pretty good QB if a ground game can pick up a consistent 4 yards on 1st and/or 2nd down. To me it seems as though our running game is handcuffing Chad and placing him in too many 2nd & 3rd and longs, which is not beneficial to the strength of our offense/personnel. If he's great in 1st & normal 3rds, then I can only believe that he'd be great in manageable 2nd downs, too. With a good run game and a vertical threat to keep safeties honest, I could see this becoming a very balanced, time-consuming, and tough to stop offense..... with Henne at QB.
     
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  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    :lol:

    You totally missed what the point was Killahp, two similar players both more possession guys than real explosive Wr's is not doing Henne any favors.

    Not

    Henne has two good Wr's to throw to and is not using them.

    I suspect something is cooking with the Wr corps Kilahp, do not be surprised if there is a shake up this offseason.
     
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  6. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I very much agree with this, which is why we need a quality vertical threat to help balance it all. IMO Bess's greatest value here is on 3rd down and manageable where he's unstoppable. On 1st & 2nd down it would help to have a vertical threat that defenses have to be prepared for if nothing more than to help give the ground game a little more breathing room.
     
  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Because 3rd and 2 is considered 3rd & short..... and 3rd and 8+ is pretty much regarded as 3rd & long. If a ground game is doing its job, then an offense should average somewhere between 3rd & 3-7 yards. That's why they have stats or 3rd & 3-7 yards.
     
  8. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really don't take issue at all with the ball he through to Marshall vs. the Jets this year. I want more of that. Ya, would I like to see the WR hit in stride? Ya, but I think it's unfair to think a QB can hit that pass in beautiful stride every time. I just want him to allow those guys the opportunity to make that play. He did with both of those plays to Marshall and Hartline. I know if we could have make those plays with more consistency it would change the way defenses play us drastically. The plays were there to be made this year and they weren't.
     
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  9. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    Sorry I'm on Nyquil today...... :lol:

    He did use Marshall on Sunday.10 catches just 14 yards being the longest. Brandon doesn't get separation after the catch and before you say he is being double covered he had more YAC last year in Denver with the same situation. I also couldn't help but notice Henne had success in the middle of the field against zone coverage to both TE's Fasano and Shuler. There was also a nice play to get a first down to Fasano at the sideline against zone coverage. Henne placed the ball over the LB and in front of the safety. There are moments with him when he excels if the right call is made as far as a shakeup at wR I agree and todd hammers it home daily. We have to get a deep threat speedster of some sort but if we don't change the philosophy it will be status quo. I'm more than sure Henne will be the qB so get him some tools and a OC that has a clue and maybe we can salvage the damage this group has done to this kid's head. If not go ahead and make a change at QB and watch things go backwards.
     
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  10. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    When you have a QB who plays the best from 3 WR sets, then why would you want to be passing out of 2 WR sets (with max protect) 144 times in the first place when the sack differnential is 1 sack every 13.8 attempts vs 1 sack every 18 attempts? Henne's 3 WR sets are 11 pts higher than 2 WR sets.

    3 WR: 81 QB rating... 64%.... 7.2 ave.... 6 TDs... 7 INTs... 35% 1st downs per attempt
    2 WR: 70 QB rating....62%.... 7.1 ave.... 3 TDs... 7 INTs... 34% 1st downs
     
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  11. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    I would like to see current Henne in 08 Dolphins or '10 Patriots. I think an offense with a lot of different weapons, two good TE's (Fasano/Martin;Hernandez/Gronkowski), a guy who can get deep (Ginn/Hartline;Tate), and a solid run game with receiving RB's would be best for him. Best of all a new OC.
     
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  12. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Great post.... give me a bit to address it. Gotta run an errand. I used SportsIllustrated.com by the way. :tongue2:
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Hmm, any chance you can find 3 wr's and from the shotgun?

    That to me was where Henne played at his best, 3 wr's/shotgun/ no huddle
     
  14. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    That is the biggest bunch of bs I have heard here in a while. Brandon Marshall has to go up and fight for that ball at all cost. He lacked effort on a ball that was out right where it had to be. A star WR goes up and makes that play. You are giving Marshall a pass and putting it on the QB. I swear player fans make me sick. An amazing leap? How about just going after it and coming down with it. Marshall is a fraud. He is over paid and over rated and gets way too much credit for not doing his job. Bess is a better possession WR IMO. That is all Marshall can do is catch the ball and get tackled. When he doesn't drop the football. I'm not impressed and could care less if he stays. He has done nothing but take up space and waste oxygen IMO.
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That is why Marlon Moore was inserted and Curtis waived, more upside, faster, keep an eye on him this Sunday.
     
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  16. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    You're right about that as well - we've seen plenty of missed opportunities, and the splits don't show passes not taken.
     
  17. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But you did have that. He had Ginn and Hartline last year. He had a deep threat. He was blessed with a Top 3 Rushing Offense. He was in the same offense they ran in 2008 (last year). Yet, he still put up mediocre numbers. He still struggled to complete balls down the field, not nearly as bad as this year however. He still struggled with costly INTs in situations. I will say that there wasn't as much of a struggle to score points. A running game vastly improved that, as it would have this year. However, when he is asked to lead us to victory he comes up short more often than not.

    It's true that a better running game, makes Henne better and this offense better. For me, though it still masks the issues I have with Henne.
     
  18. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    ESPN also has splits as well, and pro-football reference does too.
     
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  19. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think he was talking about the completion to Marshall, KP. I know I was. That was a good throw by Henne and a great play by Marshall. That's what we brought Marshall in for, to make those plays--which he did.

    I disagree about your view on Marshall, however. I think he's a stud.
     
  20. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    He's had 12 deep passes (30+ yards) this year and hit on 3 of them. During the Saints-Falcon MNF game, Brees and Ryan had roughly 5 deep passes combined and missed on all 5 of them. Throwing deep isn't the cake walk that you make it out to be. A QB HAS to throw downfield (20+ yards) more than this offense does if it wants to have success doing so. The completion rate for a 20+ passes typically says that you will fail more times than you succeed, which is why they're not attempted all game. So if you have a better chance of failing, then please tell me how any QB is expected to beat these odds when he typically gets 1-2 throws/game?
     
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  21. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    He was talking about the deep play against the Jets where the ball was put on the money and Marshall didn't go up and fight for the ball. Incomplete pass. I believe it was 3:25 left in the third quarter Go back and take a look. The ball was spot on and BM is paid to make those plays. I'm underwhelmed by this guy. He is far from a stud.
     
  22. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Shotgun was very similar to 3 WR sets IIRC.
     
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  23. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    I was, and the more I look at it, the happier I am that the throw was made. Brandon Marshall is 6'4 and has a 37-inch vert, and he is here to make those plays, and he did. That's good for me.
     
  24. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    This play, right here:

    http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010092614/2010/REG3/jets@dolphins/analyze/box-score#tab:watch

    EDIT

    Looks like the NFL doesn't want me to link directly to their videos :shifty: Rather than fight them right now, it's the 40 yard play. The 11-yard TD is pretty sweet too.
     
  25. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Takes 1-2 throws a game. David Garrard does the same, and his rating is much higher on throws of 20+ yards. Matt Cassell has done the same, and also with a far superior rating at 20+ yards. I wouldn't say those guys are luminaries of the deep ball. I'm just asking that a guy that can throw the ball like Henne can work on his placement to make some of those long passes completions, and others scores.
     
  26. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  27. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    No I didn't have that. He didn't have his two TE's. He also was in his first year starting. Something about current Henne skipped pass you.

    EDIT: Also, Dan Henning.
     
  28. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    It's cool.... That's on me. I thought you were referring to the 2nd Jets game late in the 3rd QTR when Marshall didn't go up and fight for the ball and Fields bailed us out.

    That 40 yarder was Marshall longest on the season I believe. I have issues with the guy. YAC average is 2.5 and only scores 3 TD's. I know the catches are there and the yardage is good but he is not a play maker at all.
     
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  29. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    Thanks for the stats... However, I don't suppose there is a stat that measures on those deep passes whether or not the receiver was open? :shifty:
     
  30. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Those guys also have Mike Sims-Walker and Dwayne Bowe who are better & more physical vertical threats than Hartline and they don't need to rely on fakes and so forth to get open. Just sayin--- makes it easier on the QB and success.

    I agree that he can definitely work on his placement etc, and I feel practice make pefect as well as having one legitimate guy whom you can build good chemistry with. It's taken over a year for Cassel to get it going with Bowe, and Garrard has had Sims Walker for a while now.
     
  31. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    :lol: kiss my arse.
     
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  32. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't know if you're aware of this, but Dan Henning was the coordinator for that 2008 offense. I was waiting for the first year excuse, which is a valid one. I agree. But, it can only be used as an excuse so long as there has been progression into this year. While I believe he's better in a few areas, he's gotten worse in others and stayed the same in others.

    Yes, he didn't have David Martin, but he has Brandon Marshall this year. Say what you want about Marshall's production this year being down and him overrated, but he makes the defense account for him at all times by double coverage, defensive gameplans, etc. that David Martin NEVER received.
     
  33. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    I don't know if I'm down with Mike Sims-Walker. He's no better than Hartline or Marshall in terms of being the deep go-to guy (its a combination of Mike Thomas and Lewis for the Jags). Henne has had Brian Hartline now for two years. The difference between say Mike Thomas and Brian Hartline is two or three plays made as opposed to missed. If you're not going to take many shots down the field, you have to hit the ones you are taking, and that's where Henne has struggled, even since college.

    Bowe though is having a monster year all over the field, and between him and Cassell they're probably the best QB/WR tandem right now.
     
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  34. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    You just described what the Pats do 90% of the time. The biggest difference is that Wleker and Woodhead get YAC and the Pats have a running game.
     
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  35. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Actually, that isn't the case Todd re: Mike Sims-Walker & Dwayne Bowe.

    Here are there 40 times, which use as big criteria for a vertical threat per nfldraftscout.com:

    Mike Sims-Walker
    Avg: 4.35
    Low: 4.32
    High: 4.44

    Dwayne Bowe
    Avg: 4.51
    Low: 4.49
    High: 4.61

    Brandon Marshall
    Avg: 4.52 (only had average on nfldraftscout.com)

    Brian Hartline
    Avg: 4.52
    Low: 4.44
    High: 4.63

    So, you can see by those numbers Mike Sims-Walker should be a much more clear vertical threat than any of our guys, but it isn't the case. Per NFL.com player stats, he only has 2 catches in his entire 3 year career of 40+ yards, with none of those this year. He isn't a vertical threat by any stretch of the imagination. In one less game, Hartline has one catch of 40+ yards (which was really more him doing the YAC) and one less 20+ yd catch and a better YPC. So, the 40 time doesn't hold water and the stats would indicate Hartline is much more of a big play guy than Mike Sims-Walker is. I didn't even get into Hartline's impressive YPC numbers from his rookie year.

    The best vertical threat of those 4 guys? It's actually Brandon Marshall and all his numbers indicate that, both 40+ yd catches, 20+ yd catches. Dwayne Bowe has posted an outstanding 16.3 YPC this year that bests Brandon Marshall's best output of 15.5 in 2006, but before this year Dwayne Bowe really wasn't viewed as downfield guy, whereas Brandon Marshall has posted 3+ 40 yd seasons in 08 and 09. By no stretch of the imagination do I believe Marshall is a vertical guy, but he is a vertical threat and is an all-around good WR as he is good at all (vertical, over the middle, short and YAC--other than this year).

    Again, this not only argues that MSW is a better vertical threat, but that also 40 times really don't hold much water when it comes to how much a vertical threat a guy is. Brian Hartline has done a good job stretching the field and picking up chunk yardage. I think he could have been even better say if a few of those balls he's open deep are completed.

    Edit: It shouldn't be a surprise that Dwayne Bowe's numbers have been so great due to Matt Cassell's excellent play this year--really since the 1st quarter of the year where he and Bowe still struggled. The presence of that strong running game allowed the passing game to become more formidable I believe, which is a point you've been alluding to Todd and that I agree with.
     
  36. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    To add to this, I was listening to ESPN radio and Tim Hasselbeck was asked about Vick missing some protection calls. Tim stated that most QBs aren't responsible for that, that guys like Manning and Brees are exceptions. I did not know this.
     
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  37. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    That really isn't true.
     
  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't know the numbers now but it was true through the first half of the season on third down. What isn't true is those repeated allegations that Henne stares down his receivers anymore than the average QB. Even Sparano came out and said that.
     
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  39. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Actually, you're wrong. Until someone is signed or drafted, Henne is still the QB. You don't cut your losses and assume there's another starter when there's not even another starter here no matter who the current guy is.
     
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  40. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Contrary to popular belief, Marshall wasn't double covered all year. He got single covered a few times including Jets and Titans. But Dan Henning called the Offense against the worst defenses in the league and the Wildcat had no answer back then.
     

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