if we Ronnie and Ricky run for 100+ the we have a 77% chance of winning http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/18723/accuscore-has-easy-formula-for-dolphins
Accusuck had the Vikings winning last week. Let's pull all our money on what Accusuck has to say, I say.
That has been the formula all year run, run, and run some more. Don't put Henne in the position to lose us the game or put it on him to have to win it, has been the staffs philosophy. Personally I'd love to see Henning open things up and get Marshall involved early and really cut Henne loose.
I believe that last year they finished around 59%. That's actually very impressive. That being said they are always less accurate at the beginning of the season. Their data relies on stats that are less prone to anomalies with a larger sample. I would say that for the first three weeks of the year they are probably no better than a coin flip. I do, however, believe that Miami is far more likely to win this game than the Jets are. Before I ever saw their prediction, I felt that the Dolphins are more likely than not to rush for more than 100 yards and that Sanchez was more likely than not to throw an interception or two. I felt that if both of these events happened (or even one of them) that the Dolphins were likely to win. Its the NFL so any given Sunday... but IMO the Dolphins win this game 7 out of 10 times.
I like AccuScore's ability to simply give a coherent reason why a team may win or lose a game not for the specific (phins by +5). Typically the pundits on the Sunday shows just shoot from the lip with no logic at all behind what they are saying so it's nice to have some basis for making a prediction, rightly or wrongly.
They are pretty good when its midseason and when they have enough stats to employ but two weeks worth of stats is not enough of a sampling to make a valid projection IMO. They predicted a Viking win last week and I said at that time that their stats from last year which they factored in should not count .They were a good run-stop team last year but things change as the actual game demonstrated .
I think accuscore would be more lopsided for the dolphins if they would have inputed the FEED THE WOLF Factor.
All I want to see is Marshall bust loose on first play for a TD and punts the ball into some jet fans face!
I hate all predictions not done through a methodical mathematical process of drinking a lot of beers.