Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

If we didn't have Tua, would you be clamoring to bring Goff in at a price tag like that?

 

Tua is better and younger, so likely will get more $. It's going to get even sillier here. They are going to act like it's their money.

 

The arm strength argument comes down to this: When we got Tyreek, a very very vocal few said "Tyreek will be wasted, Tua doesn't have the arm strength to throw deep!" They were adamant. After Tua leads the league in deep ball passing, the same people claimed "You don't need good arm strength to be an effective deep ball thrower!" Just as adamantly......

 

Then it was he cannot throw a deep out, but he also threw a bunch of deep outs... Now, it's he doesn't have the arm to make off platform throws that Herbert and others can, which is true. Or, that he cannot muscle in the late throws that others can, also true. It's fascinating how the discussion evolved, and how some are in denial about what was said at various times. His arm has also gotten stronger as he rehabbed his legs back and further developed them. Shocking developments, right?

He is always going to be on the low end of acceptable arm strength, but I don't see anyone saying that he isn't at least in the acceptable zone any longer. I also ignored the obvious trolls, so your mileage may vary. It's the "he makes one read", or "throws to a spot" arguments that make me question human sentience now. Are they possibly just robot replicants? Reptiods conducting psychological experiments? I am not sure.

**edit lol psychological, apparently I am the reptile life form**

 

What "potential interception" stat are you referring to here? I am familiar with one by PFF that compares expected interception rates to actual interceptions, but it is not based on the assumption that all potential interceptions are equal nor does it assume roughly 50% of potential interceptions become actual interceptions. With the PFF version, Brees' career actual interceptions were just about the same as his expected interceptions. Luck is involved in interceptions, so not everyone's career actual interceptions will match their expected interceptions -- one should expect a range of variance for different players. Rodgers is the one who seemed to consistently have fewer actual interceptions than expected ones, but his expected interceptions were also always very low and even if he his actual interceptions matched his expected interceptions he still would have thrown very few interceptions.

I am also familiar with a metric for dropped interceptions, but that is something different. And I've also seem metrics that try to determine which ones are the QB's fault vs. the fault of the receiver or someone else. Which "potential interception" metric are you talking about?

 

No because he would not be available. Should the Lions have made that deal? Absolutely. Should we make a similar one with Tua? Absolutely.

 

He wasn’t playing because the league treated the Dolphins and Tua’s concussion differently than they treat other player’s concussions. Does anyone blame Purdy for the 49ers loss last year in the playoffs because he tore his UCL?

 

Most of the top QB’s in the league (meaning those still not on a rookie contract) are getting about 15% to 17% of their team’s cap. Goff is getting 12% next year. Tua will, and should, get at least that much.

 

Goff is still on his prior extension next year, that's why it is low. It will go up to like 18ish the year after when this new deal kicks in (. If Tua ends up costing 20% or lower of our 2025 cap it will be a pretty decent deal.

 

Also, if the cap next year shoots up as much as it did this year, I'd suspect guys like Allen, Burrow, Mahomes, etc to be looking at adjustments. So it's possible that those deals, which don't look bad in light of the increases, will increase.

 

At some point, I can see this becoming an issue of animosity among players. The cap keeps going up and who keeps getting the lion’s share? At some point other players are going to start asking, “well what about me?”

“Why can’t I get a 10 year $500 million deal?”

It may not come today or tomorrow but knowing human nature as I do, it’s coming.

 

Sure thing bud

 

So if people were pointing to injuries as a problem, him being held out by the league doesn't really have any bearing on what they were saying.

 

The league was holding Tua and the Dolphins to a different standard when it came to concussions. All one has to do is look at all the players that suffered concussions last year and the year prior and see the difference.

 

It is the constant moving goal posts and the ridiculous denials that are the craziest. That and the grasping at straws. "He can't make the off platform throws that Allen and Herbert make".... okay, I'll give up all 5 of them that matter each year and keep the much better efficiency for the HUNDREDS of other throws, thank you very much.

 

Tua is a very public figure and gets more attention and was for used by others to make points about concussions and the NFL. The facts of the circumstances around his injuries didn't really matter as they weren't point. I think the circumstances were tailored to fit a narrative, but honestly they didn't need much alteration. Questionable (expert opinions don't and didn't stop the questions) prior concussion protocol nonuse followed by a horrific primetime injury to a star player. I still don't understand how that wasn't a penalty, Tua was a defenseless player (just released a pass) that was whip spiked into the turf. The NFL didn't really have a choice not to hold him to a different standard. It was an issue that reached further than everyone wants. They have to have special signoff to keep their weird employment/marketing arrangement legal.

 

From 1994 (when the cap started) until 2022, no QB making over 13.1% of their team’s cap won a SB. Mahomes was over that when they beat the Eagles at 17% and last year at 16%.

Depending on how much the cap rises in 2025 he could be making 18+%, but that’s going by AAV. His actual cap hit will most likely be lower than the AAV hit. With the cap as it is now, Mahomes would be at 24% of the cap in 2025.

This is why signing Tua now seems to be the better option. Extend him now and create much lower cap hits over the next 3 seasons.

 

Yes and no. Most positions are benefitting and seeing big gains. He'll, even guards are starting to get paid. The big exception is RB, and that's both how fast they get used and tossed as well as salary. But outside of that, you don't hear much griping.

 

The NFL and mainly the media members such as ESPN who want to protect the NFL needed to make it about Tua and how the Dolphins handled it to distract from the leagues awful protocols and the general dangers of the sport.

 

Two of the most vocal were saying it in the thread that got created when they traded for Tyreek. There were many posts back and forth arguing Tua's arm strength in that thread. This was one of the comments - "I have never seen Tua throw the ball more than 50 yards in the air".

One posted a tweet of a Broncos QB throwing a duck that only went a few yards:

 

That was one of the narratives. The NFL wants no conversations about concussions. ESPN wants ratings, but doesn't want to kill the cow. They're more conflicted as controversy sells, but they don't create the actual content, just the acrutrimon of the content.

 

It's not the volume as much as it is this......

Purdy 39 attempts 15 1st downs
Tua 34 attempts 5 1st downs

The NFL is all about moving the chains on offense, you want a QB who can do that when plays break down. Purdy did this at an overwhelmingly better rate than Tua in 2023. I certainly agree the emphasis on last season was to keep Tua healthy, but you cant sacrifice crucial moments in a football game when there is only 17 of them out of fear.

The good news is I believe the Dolphins recognize this, they seem to have Tua slimming down and one has to assume it's for this reason you see above. We need a guy who can keep drives alive.

 

I'm a fan of the Miami Dolphins 1st and foremost. I'm also huge on accountability in my fandom and certainly in real life. We live in a world where too many people want to point a finger. This happened a lot as you know with Tannehill who moved on and showed that with the right surroundings, he could be a top 16 QB in the NFL, which I certainly never doubted.

Tua is no different as far as I'm concerned, just because he is/was a significantly better passer than we have had since Dan, doesn't mean I need to get so excited I lose track of realty. The guy has some areas he needs to improve on before I hop on top of a hill ready to die for him.

 

Oh no doubt...just there was a time we didn't exactly see eye to eye with each other lol

 

O fcourse not....you were a raging Tannehil homer and I am the voice of reason!

 

Yeah I've learned not to back flawed QBs.

 

Yes and no... Tannehill was a guy who I thought had the physical tools that were worth trying to build around, even though he was flawed. Tua, imo, is more difficult to figure than Tannehill.

 

Also, by "back" I do NOT mean to support. I mean to like, crusade strongly for.

 

Tua is a PFWA George Halas Award finalist. We should all be glad to hear that. Please, for once and for the love all that's good and holy, let's not quibble over the word "succeed" in the description of the award's purpose.

George Halas Award (NFL player, coach or staff member who overcomes the most adversity to succeed)

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — Tagovailoa was placed in the NFL’s concussion protocol twice and limited him to 13 games in 2022. He briefly considered retirement in the offseason due to his injuries, but returned to the field to play in all 17 games in 2023. He led the NFL in passing yards with 4,624 and threw for 29 touchdowns and posted a passer rating of 101.1. He was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for Week 1 after a 466-yard passing performance, and he also picked up AFC Offensive Player of the Month honors for September.

https://www.profootballwriters.org/2024/05/16/2024-pfwa-off-field-award-finalists-announced/

 

Wow, he was at least 235? That's a bit much lol

 

It's a golf game for charity, dude. It's not like he up and decided to skip OTA just to go golfing with his buddies.

 

In his terse response to being called out by Ryan Clark over his weight, Tua suggested he put on weight to avoid injury. I guess he did a cost-benefit analysis in the offseason and determined he's better at his natural playing weight.

 

Yeah. It's almost as if he went one route last offseason and determined that it wasn't the best way to go about it (though he did avoid injury, so there's that).