My Mock

I thought I would just share a few brief thoughts before the big day:

2024 NFL Mock Draft

Here are the rules that I have placed upon myself. I do not forecast trades in the mock draft because things will quickly get out of hand. In a highly unpredictable setting, I choose to deal with certainties and not uncertainties. I have made my picks based on whom I think each team will take - not who they should take. I have also taken the liberty to grade the pick based on a multitude of different elements including, but not limited to: fit, value, and need. This being said, do not consider the draft grade necessarily a grade on the player. In order to help you understand my thought process, let’s consider some of the teams and coaches that are looking for quarterbacks and how that could affect their grade.

In what feels like some weird sort of gameshow, no quarterback wants to be the third pick of the draft. If they are the second pick, great. If they are the fourth pick, possibly even better. It’s that third quarterback that is problematic. The New England Patriots, formerly the kings of the NFL, have found themselves sweeping the streets that they used to own. In terms of offensive talent, the cupboard is empty. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper would have been a viable receiving unit in Madden 2020. The Patriots have a defensive minded first year head coach with Jerod Mayo which doesn’t bode well for a young quarterback.

On the other hand, every potential quarterback being drafted is praying that the Minnesota Vikings move up and select them in the first round. The difference is staggering. Now, they would have the opportunity to throw to the best receiver in the league, one of the top tight ends in the league, and another talented young rookie receiver in Jordan Addison. Additionally, they get to be groomed by Kevin O’Connell who has had reasonable success with Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullins, and Joshua Dobbs. Finally, this young quarterback would get to play home games in a dome.

So how much would the landing spot impact the grade of the pick? Substantially. Drake Maye, a developmental pick, going to Minnesota would score an A-. I think that the support system is in place to help him maximize his potential. What if he went to New England? He would be probably score a B- because I do not seem him as a transcendent player that can overcome his own deficiencies and put the Patriots on his back. Simply put, the Patriots need someone who is closer to a finished project.

How to watch the draft - Are you a fan of the movie, Inception? If so, this is the year for you. I have graded four quarterbacks with first round grades – Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. The Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders have obvious needs at quarterback. The Giants, Titans, Rams, Steelers, and quite possibly even the Cowboys have varying degrees of interest as well. This leads us to our second tier of quarterbacks – Bo Nix and Michael Penix. Clearly, the demand outweighs the supply.

The first layer of this onion is ownership. Owners are the only component of a team that are long-term by nature. Typically, owners are not football guys, but business guys. They may not understand football, but they do understand value and the dangers of overpaying. The value of draft picks is the one element of running a team that the owners probably understand the most. Theoretically, because of the long-term nature of ownership, these owners should value and advocate for responsibility in the draft process. One universal truth about people, owners included, is that their eyes like to wander. This year is unlike any other. Two elite level coaches are out of jobs – Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel.


So, let’s dig into the deeper layers of this onion. Consider the draft from the coaches’ and GMs’ point of view. Their leashes are shorter than ever. One and one is becoming more common. Heck, Frank Reich wasn’t even given a full season before he was shown the door. I am fully confident that coaches and GMs are fully aware of their lack of job security. If their team is a disaster, and they do not have a quarterback, and therefore do not have an obvious beacon of hope, it is natural, if not totally human, to understand how an owner would think to himself, “Let’s get Belichick. He can fix this.” Additionally, next year does not have a strong quarterback class, so selling patience to an owner may be futile. Speaking of thinking to oneself, these coaches and GMs certainly must have considered the possibility that Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will be off the board before they pick, and they may not have the ammo to move up and get them either. Certainly, they have thought to themselves, “Let’s trade up and get Bo Nix. Even if next season is not good, if Bo can string together a few good games at the end of the season, we can convince ownership that we have turned the corner. This could buy us time.” Finally, and most importantly, they have to have thought to themselves, “What is the point of having a full draft class next year, if I am out of a job and won’t be here to make the picks?” These coaches and general managers have to have imagined that chaotic scene in their mind on the night of the draft where they are in real-time trying to explain why they are using a first-round pick, or possibly worse, frantically working the phones to trade up to get Bo Nix – the guy who is number 45 on their big board. Now, I know one thing that cannot be said when an owner asks, “Why are we giving up so much for Bo Nix.” The response certainly will not be, “Because you are going to fire us all next year if we don’t shake the dice right now and reach.” Remember, these owners are the only ones with the ability to think long term, and that is not the answer that they want to hear. Ironically, I do not think that most owners have the self-awareness to understand the accuracy of that statement and their role within the situation.

So ,how do the coaches and general managers avoid that situation and the dangers of a potential owners veto? Some call it subterfuge. Some call it lying. Others call it dabbling in the dark arts. The GM, the head coach, and his top lieutenants, and the top scouts, need to meet clandestinely and have a come to Jesus moment where they lay it all out on the line. Everyone in that room might be unemployed in a year if things do not go well, and they do not have a quarterback. In order to pull a fast one on the boss, Bo Nix, Michael Penix, or both need to be rated high on the board so they can justify drafting one of them to an owner who is not a football guy and is none-the-wiser.

So, if on Thursday, you see fireworks, and the top brass is saying things that don’t exactly check out, just peel back the layers of the onion to find the truth.



1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB USC

Last season did not end the way Caleb Williams had hoped. USC underperformed and there were moments where Williams showed emotional distress on the sidelines. Additionally, some of his oddities were viewed in a different light now that the winning had stopped. Throughout the season, a lot of my football buddies expressed doubts about Williams. My rebuttal is fairly simple. Get over it. Is there any way that you don’t rate a guy #1 overall whose comp is Patrick Mahomes? You don’t. Williams is an athletic guy with a live arm. His ability to throw accurate passes off platform, at weird arm angles, and against his body is astounding. Simply put, he is one of the most natural passers that I have ever seen demonstrating elite arm strength and accuracy. He has above average speed and an average build.

Williams does ad-lib too much and dances around far too long in the pocket. These great moments in college will likely be sacks or interceptions in the NFL. Williams is also refusing to provide medical information for teams that he cannot envision drafting him. Take from that what you will.

A+

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB LSU

Anyone that tells you that they are confident in drafting Jayden Daniels is a liar. If there is such a thing as winning a Heisman on easy mode, Jayden Daniels is the example. Jayden Daniels is the only quarterback in this year’s draft that I know will be playing with worse offensive weapons than he had in college. There are some in the draft community that say Malik Nabers is the best receiver in a star-studded receiving class, and Brian Thomas Jr. will also be selected in the first round as well. Additionally, Daniels threw to Mason Taylor who has nothing short of racehorse DNA as his father is Hall of Famer, Jason Taylor, and his mother is the sister of Hall of Famer, Zach Thomas. So, what about his days at Arizona State? He threw to Brandon Ayuik, and his running back was Rashaad White. Any reasonable analyst would have to concede that Daniels has been very lucky.

Daniels is a tall, skinnier guy who needs to put on weight. I saw him getting tossed like a ragdoll too often. He is a solid runner with a great burst, but will putting on weight take away from that burst? He is also 23 which is old for a quarterback entering the draft, and it is fair to call him a one-year wonder. Remember, his one elite year of college is when most quarterbacks have graduated. He has a strong arm and average accuracy and needs to work on his consistency. He benefited a lot from throwing to wide open receivers. Daniels could very well be a good quarterback, but it is important to evaluate what you see with context.

Second pick of the draft, and I am already calling people liars. This is gonna be a spicy year.

C

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye, QB North Carolina

In my mind, I still see Maye as a prospect. Teams are not drafting him for what he is today, but more so for what he might be tomorrow. Maye comes from a basketball family and his name should sound familiar. Maye has a great frame that could probably take on more muscle in the future and a rocket for an arm with a smooth release. He is a good – not great runner with above average speed.

I am not sure that Maye will be able to start right away due to his slow processing speed that will almost certainly lead to sacks if he steps out onto the field. Maye throws a beautiful deep ball, but shorter passes give him trouble. I have watched him miss running backs and other easy passes multiple times.

As I mentioned before, I think that going to New England is a tough ask especially for a guy who needs to improve. He has a defensive minded head coach and not a lot of talent around him. Jacoby Brissett is not enough to fight off the boo birds, and his number will most likely be called sooner rather than later in New England.

B-

4. Arizona Cardinals – “Maserati “Marvin Harrison Jr., WR The Ohio State University

Ladies and Gentlemen: The draft is officially underway. Almost certainly at this point, three quarterbacks will be off the board, and it is quite possible that JJ McCarthy could be one of them. This spot will be highly coveted, and I fully expect a trade here. Unfortunately for all of you, I do not forecast trades. As they say, “c’est la vie.”

From the moment Harrison stepped onto the field, I knew he was going to be special. I really think that he should have won the Heisman as a freshman. You can clearly see that Harrison’s dad was a star in the NFL. Harrison finds separation early in breaks and runs elite routes. He knows which spots to run to in the zone. He is exceptional at high pointing the ball and making contested catches. He will be a volume guy at the next level.

Like Caleb Williams, his last season at Ohio State did not go as expected. Harrison played hurt during the season and had more drops than you would like to see. Harrison has essentially not participated in the pre-draft process. Much like Caleb Williams, I don’t think that any of this will amount to anything.

Harrison will almost certainly be an elite NFL receiver.

A+

*Postscript* - This is the pick that keeps me up at night. The more I think about it, the more I think that the Cardinals should not trade this pick and draft Harrison. My thoughts are that it is not all that uncommon to see a top receiver traded for two first round picks, and there have been teams in the past that have given up two first round picks to move up and select an elite receiver. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the type of guy that I would be willing to make that kind of move for. In my mind, if a team is offering two first rounders for Harrison, that is probably what his value is. The Cardinals already have a dearth of picks, and they need a receiver. Maybe simple is best after all.

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR LSU

Justin Herbert has lost Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Eckler all in one offseason. The Chargers did prepare for this change by drafting Quinton Johnston in the first-round last year; however, when injuries piled up, it was Joshua Palmer that stepped up. Johnston was only able to notch 38 catches for 431 yards last season. Nabers will quickly become a true #1 receiver for Herbert. Nabers is silky smooth as a route runner and has top end speed to stretch the field. Nabers was consistently open at LSU and is expected to be a volume guy with big time RAC potential at the next level.

Nabers has an average build and lined up a lot out of the slot. I do wonder what the plan is for him at the next level.

A+

6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR Washington

I imagine a murder of crows circling around New York’s war room. One season after awarding Daniel Jones with a massive payday, the word around the combine was that the Giants want to move on from Jones. In my preface, I talked about getting a stay of execution by drafting a young quarterback and getting him to show promise by the end of his first season. I am not sure that this holds true for the Giants. Joe Schoen, with little history with the Giants, has given Daniel Jones a $160M contract, and Jones has a $47.5M cap number this season.

I have not given up on Daniel Jones. I ask you right now to name the Giants’ receivers last year. I bet most people would struggle to come up with names. Currently, the Giants skill positions look like this: RB – Devin Singletary WR – Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson TE – Darren Waller (who contemplated retirement this offseason). I do not think a quarterback change will alter the fate of this offense. I do think that the entire organization is facing an uphill battle to save their jobs, but a true #1 receiver will certainly help to resuscitate the offense.

I love Rome Odunze, and I think he needs to go to a bad weather team. Unfortunately, he does not have top end speed, so conditions that slow everyone down will help his game tremendously. Odunze is a big-bodied receiver that loves to go up and catch 50-50 balls. He is exceptional at catching contested passes and has elite body control to contort himself in air. Think of Odunze in terms of chunk yards. They loved to send him deep and toss it up. This part of his game will translate well. Additionally, he has elite ball tracking ability.

The negatives are that he loves 50-50 balls too much, and he does not get elite separation. Against better competition, this could cause problems.

A+

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame

I am going to come in here with a hot take. I think the Titans have a really, really good roster. The elephant in the room is "What do the Titans think of Will Levis?” I do think that he showed promise last year, and there truly is room for optimism. I’d also be a liar if I said that the Titans should not be looking hard at the available quarterbacks. Moving up to #4 feels viable if the right guy happened to fall.

Ultimately, I do think that the Titans continue their history of having solid linemen and draft Alt. Alt has a strong pedigree as his father was a Pro Bowl tackle, and Notre Dame has been producing top linemen consistently for years. Alt has great frame and has very light feet. He is exceptional in run blocking as he can quickly move down field and hit guys at multiple levels. When hitting those second levels, he is remarkable at engaging in blocks and controlling his man. He does need to work on his body control as he can get caught out of position.

I wish that Alt was as good of a pass blocker as he is a run blocker. He has good footwork and can easily transition to blockers. He is more of a jabber, and speed guys tend to give him a hard time. I would like to see him show his power more in pass protections. I want to see him maul guys.

A+

8. Atlanta Falcons – Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama

I really do think that things have fallen into place for Raheem Morris’s second bite at the apple. A lot of resources were dumped into the offense, and I expect that it is now time for Morris to put his fingerprints on the defense.

Turner does have the freakish qualities that you look for in a top tier draft pick. He is built like a linebacker and has 4.46/40 speed. He is like a boxer in the inside and is difficult to contain. He is fluid in his motion and moves well. He has a long, rangy body that he can use to position himself into plays. Alabama did feel comfortable letting him drop into pass coverage.

I do not think that he has maximized his strength yet, and I want to see him have more of a plan when attacking. I think that with proper tutelage he could really develop.

A-

9. Chicago Bears – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, LT Penn State

Despite acquiring Keenan Allen, I do think that the Bears would jump at the opportunity of drafting any of the top three receivers. I expect there to be early runs on three positional groups – quarterbacks, receivers, and offensive linemen. Protecting Caleb Williams is a clear priority, and the Bears get a solid pick with Fashanu.

Fashanu has an odd frame. He has massive tree trunks for legs that allow him to cover space quickly; however, he has a much smaller torso. His powerful legs allow for him to hold his position, and he is difficult to uproot. He is like a magnate to the defender and is a mauler at the line. At this point, he is a much better pass blocker than he is a run blocker. I would like to see him work to drive the defenders back and really maximize his strength.

A+

10. New York Rodgerses Jets – Brock Bowers, TE Georgia

Playing out almost as a modern version of The Monkey’s Paw, the Jets thought that they finally held a franchise quarterback; however, it appears that it was the franchise quarterback that was holding the Jets tightly in his grasp. I have never seen a player with such little history with a team hold so much power, but Aaron Rodgers’s wishy-washiness about retirement has led to a perpetual cycle of the Jets trying to appease him. Ultimately, this has caused the team to make financially irresponsible short-term decisions.

Before I get into my analysis, I would like to discuss a thought experiment that I conducted with several of my football buddies. I asked them a simple hypothetical question – “If you were a GM for a tight end needy team, and you could trade a first-round pick for any tight end in the league, which tight ends would you be willing to give up a first rounder for?” The most common respondents named zero or one tight end. In recent history, Kellen Winslow Jr., Kyle Pitts, and TJ Hockenson were all top ten draft picks. Hockenson was eventually traded for a second and a third-round pick and sent a division rival back two fourth-round picks. Kyle Pitts is far more freakish and has really been a bust thus far in his career. Honestly, if you are not getting Travis Kelce or Tony Gonzales in their prime, it probably isn’t worth drafting a tight end in the first round.

Brock Bowers tends to be overhyped in terms of athleticism. He moves well with the ball and runs nice routes. Moreover, he has reliable hands and can catch contested balls. He is very good at moving with the ball and was occasionally used in run plays. He played through injuries throughout the year. Really, Bowers is a receiving tight end, that has an average frame.

A fun fact that was noted by Matt Miller is that Aaron Rodgers has never really relied heavily on tight ends in his career. This may be a chicken or the egg type scenario, and perhaps he has never had a great tight end to throw to.

Bowers at 10 is a big reach.

C+

11. Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy QB Michigan


I do think that the Vikings will eventually land McCarthy, but I almost certainly do not think that it will be at the 11 spot. The Broncos are one spot behind the Vikings, and the Jets and Bears would eagerly fall back a few spots to accumulate picks.


JJ McCarthy is probably the most polarizing quarterback in the draft. Fans and media are not sold on him, but the NFL guys seem to really like him. His former coach has dubbed him “the best quarterback in the draft.” I expect McCarthy to get booed on draft night. But is it warranted?


You have to watch JJ McCarthy with a little imagination. Michigan did not run a system that accentuated his abilities. They were a run heavy team that lived a lot in the short and intermediatory pass plays that were high percentage. A ton of his game translates to the pros. He has elite accuracy and throws into tight windows. He just needs to work to be more consistent with this part of his game. He is a rhythm passer that gets the ball out quickly. If it wasn’t for Caleb Williams, McCarthy’s ability to ad lib, throw off platform, and throw against his body would highlight the class. McCarthy has a strong arm and there is enough of a sample size to demonstrate that he is capable of stretching the field vertically. He is athletic and a good runner. I do think that he is capable of improving this part of his game.


McCarthy’s frame is cause for concern, and I would like him to move through his progressions more quickly. He did have throws that he probably wished that he could have back.


I absolutely would not be surprised if he got drafted in the top 3, and he is my second highest rated quarterback.


A-


12. Denver Broncos – Bo Nix, QB Oregon


The Broncos have found themselves in a post-apocalyptic world of arguably the worst trade in NFL history. The Broncos have already been forced to shed cap space to compensate for Russell Wilson’s dead money. To make things worse, I do not think that the Broncos have the ammunition to outbid the Vikings to move up the draft board. All of your buddies at your draft party will astutely tell you that the Broncos should not draft Nix here, but instead, wisely trade back, pick up picks, and then draft Nix or Penix. Sounding smart is easy, being smart is hard. Remember, every trade requires a partner. At this point in the draft, the blue-chip players are gone. Here is the nugget to throw back to your smart friends. The Broncos do not have a second-round pick. If they cannot find a trading partner, they most likely will not be able to jump back into the first round or wait to see if Nix or Penix falls. Realistically, it is now or never for Denver. Do you want to go into the season with Jarrett Stidham, Ben Denucci, and Zach Wilson as your options at quarterback or do you want to over-draft Bo Nix.


Bo Nix is 24 years old and has literally started more games in FBS than anyone in history. I simply have to wonder, if Nix was such a great prospect, why didn’t he go pro years ago? The most probable reason is that once he left the SEC and moved to the weaker PAC, his stats became inflated.


When watching him, his experience does show. He makes micro-decisions that perhaps do not show up on the stat sheet but does impact the game. He has an average arm with a fluid release that allows for accurate passes. You can trust him to make accurate throws on his first read, and he does well throwing off platform. He is more athletic than you think and is an above average runner.


I think that talent evaluators that rate him highly are conflating experience with ability. Remember, he is the most experienced college starter… ever! Just to put things into perspective, he is as old as Trevor Lawrence. I do think there are situations in which Nix could work, and ultimately, I am fine with having him as an option but not the option. 12 feels early for a guy who grades out as a low-end starter/high end backup.


D


13. Las Vegas Raiders – J.C. Latham RT Alabama


Like the Broncos, the Raiders will probably be making calls to jump the Vikings and land a signal caller. Because they have Gardner Minshew, there is much less desperation in their war room.


It might be a tad early to grab a right tackle, but Latham is another warrior in the trenches from Alabama. Latham has an enormous, wide-bodied frame. He is 6’6’’ 335 lbs. and is built like a wall. He doesn’t have the ideal motion and quick feet of a left tackle, but once he is engaged with a blocker, it is over. He is a quintessential Steelers/Ravens lineman. If teams are honest with who Latham is and who he isn’t they will be happy with what they receive.


B+


14. New Orleans Saints – Taliese Fuaga, RT Oregon State


This pick really demonstrates the ripple effect of whiffing in the first round. The Saints missed on Trevor Penning two years ago, and Ryan Ramczyk’s career seems to be coming to an end. The Saints are now desperate to land help at tackle, and their hand is now forced to use another early pick on the line. Ideally, they would be landing a left tackle because Penning simply cannot be counted on to start. They are stuck having to choose between Troy Fautanu, who is a left tackle that most view as a guard at the next level or Taliese Fuaga, who projects as a right tackle.


I really do not think that a guard would help the Saints, so they elect to play it safe and draft Fuaga. Fuaga has the tangibles. He has a massive frame and can move, but I still think that he is developing. He needs to work to find men in the second level when run blocking and is beat too often by speed guys. I really do think that he is much stronger than the film shows. Although scouts universally see him as a tackle; ironically, I do wonder if he might be better suited as a guard. I am not sure if he is ready to start day one.


B-


15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo


The AFC North is in the midst of an arms’ race with emergence of C.J. Stroud and the talent of Trevor Lawrence.


Quniyon Mitchell absolutely looks the part and has off the charts measurables. The word is that he has impressed everyone he has met in the draft process, and I really could see him finding his way into the top ten before all is said and done. He has blazing 4.33/40 speed with elite closing speed, and he can maximize his frame in the end zone to close off parts of the field. Moreover, he has a physical element to his game.


Mitchell did play against inferior talent, but he did dominate. He had four interceptions – two which he returned for touchdowns – against Northern Illinois. He did hold his own against better talent as well. He does make business decisions at times and could be more involved.


Overall, I think teams are going to fall in love with him.


A+


16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fauntanu, G/T Washington


One of the big offseason surprises was seeing Pete Carroll and the Seahawks part ways. Mike Macdonald is similar to Pete Carroll in the regard that he cut his teeth on the defensive side of the ball. The Seahawks traded for Sam Howell, so clearly they are thinking about life after Geno Smith. I would expect them to poke their noses around Bo Nix and Michael Penix if they are available.


Ultimately, I think that the Seahawks elect to stick with what is working and reinforce the trenches. Between Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, there is a lot of power in the backfield. Fauntanu has a solid frame and instead of traditionally blocking edge rushers, he positioned them out of plays. Speedier guys tended to give him trouble. Fauntanu is a cerebral player that is able to sniff out blitzes. He is excellent in engagement. He has position flexibility, but I ultimately think he will settle in at guard.


B


17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama


C.J. Stroud has gotten the attention of the AFC North. The Jags who once held an edge on the division now seem to have fallen behind the Texans.


Arnold is a player that will be beloved by the coaching staff due to his strong desire to get his nose dirty. He is a physical player that you can tell loves football. He is active in the run game. He has loose, fluid hips, and great acceleration, awareness, and tackling skills.


He lacks the desired top end speed which is a concern. I worry that there are certain receivers in the league that he could struggle to keep up with. He does give up on plays that he feels like he is out of position in.


B+


18. Cincinnati Bengals – Amarius Mims, OT Georgia


The Bengals know that they need to prioritize keeping Joe Burrow upright. Unfortunately, a lot of the plug-and-play linemen are off the board. At 18, it feels too early to land a true guard or center. It is not out of the question that the Bengals could draft a receiver here because Tee Higgins days in Cincy are numbered.


Amarius Mims is a name you probably have not heard of because he has not seen much of the field. Joe Alt, likely the first lineman taken off the board, logged 887 snaps in 2022. Amarius Mims has logged 803 snaps in his entire career. Mims has a whopping 8 career starts. His story is quite simple. He stands in at 6’7’’, weighs 340 lbs., and he can move. It was hard to find a lot of film on him, but interestingly enough, when he did play, he looked pretty good. At this point, you are drafting potential, but the juice might be worth the squeeze.


B


19. Los Angeles Rams – Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State.


For the first time since 2016, the Rams are on the clock in the first round. With Aaron Donald opting for retirement, I think that the Rams are going to look to find a way to pressure the quarterback and wreak havoc in the backfield. I do think that the Rams would consider Byron Murphy II as a replacement to Donald, and if the top edge guys happen to go a bit earlier, Murphy very well could be the pick.


Ultimately, Sean McVay is smart enough to realize that pressuring the quarterback will best be achieved by more traditional means. Despite looking bigger on film, Verse is built more like a traditional linebacker. Verse has shown power, but when he lined up against Graham Barton, a potential first-round pick himself, he looked ordinary. Verse is slippery, has a great spin move, and works well within space. He has the disruptive quality that the Rams are looking for. He is decisive but at times to his detriment. He needs to work to improve his body control. Too often, inertia will get the better of him. Because of this, I worry about sticking him out in coverage; conversely, his frame makes me a tad nervous about putting him at defensive end.


B


20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Byron Murphy II, DT Texas


I love Mike Tomlin. I would never fire Mike Tomlin. I think Mike Tomlin is getting fired next season. Russell Wilson has been around talent in both Seattle and Denver and has not looked good in a while. At least with Justin Fields, there is potential, and perhaps, sooner than later, he might find his way onto the field. Whoever winds up on the field will be just one part of the story because Tomlin has bigger fish to fry. I am a George Pickens fan, and I think he is a true #1 WR. The problem is after that, the pantry is barren. Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins are uninspiring options. Najee Harris has been a disappointment, and Pat Freiermuth is adequate. The Steelers have always found receivers later on in the draft, and I honestly can’t imagine them selecting a receiver in the first round. I think the Steelers will build how they always build and solidify the trenches. The problem is that I do not think that this alters the winds of fate.


Byron Murphy is one of these new era defensive tackles, and lately, these players have been successful. He is a bit on the small side for a defensive tackle and does not have elite power. He struggles to disengage at times, and he can be taken out of plays. He is more of a slippery, shifty interior guy. He has a good burst off the line and is active in the running game.


B


21. Miami Dolphins – Cooper DeJean, CB/S Iowa


Miami’s fans are going to boo on Thursday night. It is rare for a fan base to reach a consensus, but Jackson Powers-Johnson is the apple of their eye, and he is available at 21. The fanbase really wants to shore up the interior offensive line, but as the old adage goes, “If you listen to the fans, you will soon be sitting with the fans.” The Dolphins are trying to win a Super Bowl, and a guard or a center is not going to move the needle. I do think that they would consider taking a left tackle here that they could slide into guard until Terron Armstead retires. The Dolphins need to find a way to get past Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, and Justin Herbert if they want to hoist a Lombardi. There is no doubt that shoring up the secondary could really help that cause.


Cooper DeJean will offer tons of position flexibility and should be able to find a roll on the defense rather quickly. DeJean lacks the ideal top end speed, and I think that he will ultimately wind up playing safety but corner is certainly a possibility. Jalen Ramsey has two more years left on the Dolphins, and if DeJean looks promising at corner, they could move away from Kendall Fuller after a season. Moreover, Jordan Poyer signed a one-year contract to play safety, and Jevon Holland will command a big contract in free agency. So, a Swiss Army knife like DeJean will have loads of opportunity.


Until this moment, I have never type the phrase, “true power corner” which makes me wonder if such a thing even exists. DeJean has decent height and a thick frame – most notably in the rear which he consistently uses to drive into defenders. He is a guy that loves football and thrives in the run game. He is an elite tackler and plays like a linebacker on the field.


The problem for DeJean is that he is not a super athletic guy in a position dominated by super athletic guys. Without top end speed, and at times, a tad stiff in the hips, I do wonder if he could hold his own against both athletic and speed receivers. Ultimately, I do think he will settle in as safety, but position flexibility in the backfield is an asset, and he could play some corner if needed.


B+


22. Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Oregon


If there is any team in the league that knows the value of a center, it is the Philadelphia Eagles. With the retirement of Jason Kelce, the greatest cheat code in all of sports, the Brotherly Shove, is in jeopardy. Additionally, the offseason addition of Saquon Barkley makes me believe that the Eagles are planning to emphasize the run in 2024.


I think that a guy who has never allowed a career sack in college would be the ultimate guy to fill Jason Kelce’s shoes. Powers-Johnson is only 6’3’’, but he is wide bodied. He has elite power and moves well for a big guy. Watching him move down field and obliterate guys is a thing of beauty. He has stiffer hips and due to his frame, this will probably not get any better. This causes him to have agility problems that are mostly mitigated due to his physique.


A+


23. Minnesota Vikings – Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA


I think that this is the most fitting pick in the draft because I do not believe that Minnesota will be picking here, and I do not think that Latu will be available here. When the Vikings traded this pick with the Texans to land this pick seemingly out of the blue, I knew that they were stockpiling premium picks to land a QB. I do think that if a team like the Broncos were to offer a king’s ransom and somehow leave the Vikings in the cold, they would love the opportunity to land Latu.


It is strange to see the best pass rusher in the draft fall this far, but Laiatu Latu has serious medical concerns. While at Washington, Latu was medically retired by team doctors; however, the UCLA medical staff cleared him to play. Latu is one of the players that I fell in love with during the draft process, and I really think that the juice is worth the squeeze here. Even the most casual of fans could see how absolutely dominant he was. He has a great frame and moves like a point guard. He can navigate through small spaces and has an elite spin move. Latu is a powerful player, and although capable, does not seem to want to get involved in the run game. I think that he knows that the pash rush is what butters his bread. He was used sparingly in pass coverage and would be fine as a 3-4 OLB.


A+


24. Dallas Cowboys – Graham Barton, C Duke


When thinking about this pick, I got a little nostalgic and thought back to the late, great Al Davis. Jerry Jones may be the last of an era in terms of an owner/GM with a football background. Jerry Jones has given the world a grand finale for the ages. At this point, everyone’s job is hanging in the balance. Mike McCarthy probably should have been fired this year, and it does not appear that Jerry is planning to extend Dak Prescott. So, as it stands right now, Dak is playing out the final year of his contract with a cap number of $55 million. Additionally, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons are due for lavish paydays in the near future. With so much uncertainty in Big D, this becomes an intriguing pick.


Doesn’t it just feel like every time the Cowboys were a really, really good team, they had a top tier line? Dallas has shown willingness in the past to grab interior linemen in the first round, and I think that they go with the versatile Graham Barton out of Duke. Barton played a lot of tackle at Duke but due to his short arms, I see him inside and will likely play best at center. Barton as a solid frame but will be able to put on mass. Graham plays with a certain level of meanness and is exceptional when engaged. Coaches will love that he is a finisher. Barton doesn’t have the best footwork and finds himself in trouble when in space. I think kicking him inside will probably fix this problem altogether.


A+


25. Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson


In quite a short order, it appears that the Packers have really put together something special. I fully expect Jordan Love to become a household name in 2024. I would love to be a fly on the wall when the Pack’s front office does self-evaluation. Particularly, I am curious about their thoughts on their receiving unit. They have a lot of no-name players that by the end of the season were pretty productive giving the team a reason for optimism. By the end of last season, I thought that they might try and turbo charge the trajectory of this team by adding an alpha in the offseason. That didn’t happen, and it never felt like they were even sniffing around. This leads me to think that they are comfortable heading into the offseason with the guys they have.


Nate Wiggins is a guy that I am actually surprised is not talked about more and is not higher up draft boards. I do think that he has the potential to go off the board higher than expected and “shock” fans on draft day. Wiggins has a long, svelte body that is a bit of a concern. That being said, he has elite 4.28/40 speed and great recovery speed. I nicknamed him “Nothing’s Easy Nate” while watching him shadow receivers playing them tightly. At the 25 spot, there is a lot of value here.

A


26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama



Strangely, I think that the Bucs are in a weird sort of way victims of their own success. The Buccaneers, coming off the loss of Tom Brady, were able to take advantage of a weaker NFC conference and exceed all expectations. Todd Bowles looked like a solid coach and Baker Mayfield looked like guy Cleveland drafted. These all are good things, but I was truly shocked in free agency when the Bucs decided to bring the band back together and resigned a lot of their older veterans. I don’t see the Bucs as Super Bowl contenders, but I also do not see any glaring holes.


I often write about the toughness I see in a player on the field, but Kool-Aid McKinstry finding out that he had a broken leg at the combine is next level. There is a certain level of comfort in taking Alabama corners. McKinstry feels most comfortable right up on top of receivers. He is a rangy player with fluid hips. He lacks the top end speed that you would like to see from a corner and really does not like to get involved in the run game.


B-


27. Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State


If the Cardinals do wind up trading out of the four spot, and picking up additional picks, you could see them targeting players and using these acquired picks to move up and down the draft board. In recent years, Arizona has seemed ready to wheel and deal, and they could prove to be one of the more fun teams to watch on Thursday.


Chop Robinson is one of the most controversial names in this year’s draft. There are definitely moments when you see “it.” The man’s highlight reels are a thing of beauty. Robinson has 4.48 speed and does flash power. He has a solid frame that really would be nice for the OLB position. He is active in the run game, can set the edge, and a cerebral player that understands the direction of a play.


The controversy really begins with PFF grading him incredibly high as a player which I, along with many in the draft community, simply do not see the justification for this grade. He is contained way too much. For a player with such great measurables, why did he only have 11.5 career sacks at Penn State and only 4 sacks in his final year? I really think that he should have been way more productive over the course of his career, and this is a major red flag.


D


28. Buffalo Bills – Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU


If you are looking to be the guy at your draft party with hot takes, do I have a little help for you. When the Bills are on the clock, ask your friends, “Do you think that the Bills have the worst receiving unit in the league?” As of right now, the Bills have Justin Shorter (who?), Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Andy Isabella, and Mack Hollins as their top receivers. Stefon Diggs was so problematic that the Bills were willing to take $31 million in dead money to get Diggs off the roster. Mind you, the Texans are not giving up a second rounder this year to acquire Diggs, they are giving up a second rounder next year. Another incredibly hot take worthy of consideration is, “As of right now, are the Bills a bad football team?” Josh Allen is phenomenal, but he currently can only lift this offense so much.


Unfortunately for the Bills, I have a hard time believing Thomas will be available here. I do think that it is conceivable that the Bills may be willing to package picks to move up and take Thomas. Thomas seems to be impressing NFL executives with his football acumen and seems to be moving up draft boards. He is a size/speed guy, and I am really surprised that he was not “the guy” in LSU. Watching him play, you could sorta tell that he knew that, and he was lazy on plays that he knew the ball wasn’t going his way. He was slow off the ball, and he really didn’t want to get involved in the run game. When he did get the ball, you really did see what he was capable of. LSU is known for their ability to produce receivers, and I genuinely do wonder if Thomas would be a top 10 guy if he was the featured guy. There is a lot of upside with this pick.


I do expect the Bills to draft a receiver here, and they could add multiple receivers in the draft.


B+


29. Detroit Lions – Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma


As a draft aficionado, I would pay to see Detroit’s big board. I really think that they are the quintessential example of every team ranking these players differently. Detroit has a vision of what they are looking for, and it is vastly different than most teams, but it really does seem to be working. Detroit has built something special, and I expect them to be good for years to come. That being said, I think they will be drafting late often. Taylor Decker is in the final year of his contract, and the Lions are going to be shelling out big contracts at other positions in the near future. Late word is that the Lions are preparing their fan base for the possibility that they move out of this pick and trade back.


As one draft expert so elegantly put it when speaking about Guyton, “You are not drafting him for today. You are drafting him for what he may become.” Guyton is a massive man who moves smoothly and can get down field easily. When things are looking good, they look really good for him. That being said, there is so much bad tape on him. He is often beat, out of position, and is totally devoid of technique. He is a guy that absolutely needs a year to learn and maybe one day, he could develop. I just cannot wrap my mind around drafting a guy this early with this much bad tape.


D-


30. Baltimore Ravens – Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU


This is a spicy spot in the draft. The Ravens are stacked, and generally speaking, their roster feels complete. If a team were looking to jump up and grab a guy like Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. and secure that coveted fifth year option by taking a player in the first round, I do think that the Ravens are a team that would be willing to stack picks or take picks in 2025.


The Ravens added their finishing piece with Derek Henry marking a transition into the power game. Kingsley Suamataia is an enormous guy that teams really did not attack. Suamataia is sluggish, stiff, and has upright stance. I do think that some of this will be mitigated in the cold AFC North, but I definitely wrote in my notes, “not a first rounder.”


C


31. San Francisco 49ers – Jer’Zahn “Johnny” Newton, DT Illinois


The 49ers are becoming victims of their own success, and they cannot resign everyone. If in the coming days, they work a deal out for Brandon Ayuik, we might see a receiver in this slot. One thing that is evident with the 49ers is that they commit and recommit to the defensive line.


After failing to shake down Arik Armstead, Johnny Newton is a guy with a lot to work with. He plays with a lot of power and has a solid burst off the line. He can move quickly into the backfield and is active in the run game. He does have a smaller frame, and he is not particularly athletic. Most notably, he struggles with body control and ability to change direction.


I like Johnny Newton, and I do think that the cat might be out of the bag on him. I think there is a good chance that he is off the board at this point, so this would be great value for the 49ers.


B+


32. Kansas City Chiefs – Xavier Worthy, WR Texas


Rashee Rice really messed up, and the Chiefs are going to have to pay the price. At this point it is difficult to tell if Rice will even be available next season, and his entire future is in doubt.


I do think Worthy is a guy that the Chiefs would have considered even if Rice had never gotten into legal troubles. Ever since losing Tyreek Hill, it is apparent that the Chiefs have wanted to add speed to this offense. Could they ask for anything more than the fastest guy in the history of the NFL Combine? Speed comes with a price as Worthy has a thinner frame. In fairness to him, he is harder to bring down than you might think. The bigger problem is that Worthy has poor hands and struggles to come down with contested passes. I do think that you need to be smart and have a plan if you want to draft him. Texas used him in screens, the running game, and the return game. There is no doubt in my mind that Andy Reid is a smart guy and will be able to maximize his potential.


In a sense, this pick is a reach. That being said, you literally cannot find his speed anywhere else in the history of the draft.


B-


Big Board


1. Caleb Williams, QB USC

2. “Maserati” Marvin Harrison Jr., WR The Ohio State University

3. Rome Odunze, WR Washington

4. Malik Nabers, WR LSU

5. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, LT Penn State

6. Joe Alt, LT Notre Dame

7. Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo

8. Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA

9. Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama

10. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Oregon


Top Quarterbacks



1. Caleb Williams, USC

2. JJ McCarthy, Michigan

3. Drake Maye, UNC

4. Jayden Daniels, LSU

5. Bo Nix, Oregon

6. Michael Penix Jr., Washington


Order in Which the Quarterbacks will be Drafted

1. Caleb Williams, USC

2. Jayden Daniels, LSU

3. Drake Maye, UNC

4. JJ McCarthy, Michigan

5. Bo Nix, Oregon

Two Most Overrated Players (True Value in Parenthesis)

1. Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma (3rd)

2. Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State (3rd)

10 years from now, we will say the best player in the draft was Caleb Williams, QB USC.

10 years from now, we will say the biggest first round bust was Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma.

The annual hidden gem of the draft is Qwan’tez Stiggers., CB Toronto Argonauts.

Odds & Ends

I’m the worst. I know. I only got X number of picks right this year. Over the last few years, I have honestly contemplated simply releasing a write-up on my top 32 prospects in lieu of producing a mock draft. In my earlier years of producing a mock draft, I didn’t even call it a mock draft. I called it a draft day supplement. In retrospect, I think the pivot may have been a mistake. In recent years, I have really stepped up my game introducing insight about the pick itself in order to really provide a greater overall context to the draft itself.

So, I wanna take a little moment and briefly describe how my draft is different and how my supplement mock draft should be used.

What I am providing you is a mosaic of information that is essentially broken down into four parts – information about the pick itself, information about the player, an overall big board, and a quarterback ranking. By marrying this information, you should be able to quickly get a good idea whether the pick itself is good or bad. The information about the pick should let you know the state of the franchise and holes in the roster, and upcoming roster decisions. The pick itself will give you a breakdown on the player himself. The big board will help you to ascertain the value of the player being drafted, and because quarterbacks are so particularly valuable, they are their own ranking. Generally speaking, a pick can be considered a success if a team can fill a hole with good value or the pick itself represents a great overall value. Landing a top ten talent with the twentieth pick regardless of need would obviously be a winning proposition. Finally, if your team needs a franchise quarterback, your rankings may be wholly different and grabbing a signal caller ahead of their ascribed rankings may make sense.

Ultimately, my goal is more than just providing you with a little fun before the draft. It is to provide you with a thorough guide that will help you enjoy the greatest day of the year!



Speaking of wrong, one particular area in which I think I will be wrong in this year’s draft is that I expect more receivers to go in the first round than I actually mocked. The problem with my mock draft is that the run on offensive linemen started early, and that led to a domino effect causing there to be fewer linemen and a surplus of receivers. For every lineman that went off the board, there was a higher demand to get the remaining few top tier linemen. I do expect receivers to go at some point ultimately balancing out the demand for receivers and linemen.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Your eyes are playing tricks on you. This year is particularly strange at quarterback. Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix are both 23, and Bo Nix is 24. These guys may appear better than the younger prospects because of experience – not talent. Quite literally, you are comparing boys to men. On draft day, you are going to see a lot of the talking heads do apples to apples comparisons on these guys which I do not think is fair at all. When watching these younger guys, you need to watch with a little imagination. Think about what their talent level will be in two or three years compared to these elder statesmen.


Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington

There is a lot of talk about Michael Penix not only going in the first but going in the first round but in the first half of the first round. Penix was one of my favorite college players last year, and even I have a hard time seeing this happening.

Penix is 23 years old, but even more concerning is his injury history. Penix has torn his right ACL twice, and this really is the elephant in the room. Penix actually has decent speed, and he is an average, but capable runner, but I see him more of a pocket passer. Penix’s throwing power is overstated. He can throw the ball far, but he lacks ideal velocity. That being said, Penix has elite deep ball accuracy coupled with above average short to intermediate accuracy. It is fair to wonder if Penix’s jettison from the Big 10 to the PAC might be an explanation for the rise in his draft stock.


Joe Milton III, QB Tennessee

Ironically enough, Joe Milton III is the guy that most people asked me about in the draft process. Milton is another 24-year-old, but he should be much, much further along in terms of development now. Milton’s arm is going to get him drafted, and in all fairness, it is elite. That being said, he needs to work on his accuracy and touch. He is a big and athletic player that can move with the ball.

Unfortunately, I do not see him developing into a starting caliber quarterback.


Payton Wilson, ILB NC State

I have to admit that I wanted to “get it wrong” and put Payton Wilson in the first round just to make you read about him. In a moment of genuine self-awareness, I am cognizant of the fact that most people do not read my mock draft in its entirety, and I suspect that the Odds & Ends section gets the fewest eyeballs, but this guy is fantastic.

Legitimately, Payton Wilson has top ten talent. He has a great frame and has wide receiver speed. He moves incredibly well. He is a solid and aggressive tackler, and he is great in coverage too. I have seen him chase down numerous ball carriers when he was totally out of the play. Payton Wilson truly does play whistle-to-whistle and never gives up on a play. I would pound the table in support of taking Wilson in the first round.

I know you must be wondering, “Why isn’t Payton Wilson going in the first round?” Wilson has suffered two torn ACLs and plays with reckless regard.

“You just said Michael Penix Jr. should not go in the first round because he has had two torn ACLs, and now you are banging the table for a linebacker with two torn ACLs. Sir, you are a hypocrite.” Kinda. But not really. If a team’s franchise quarterback goes down for the season, effectively its season is over at that point. If a team loses its starting linebacker, it is not apocalyptic. Certainly, there is risk in this pick, and I would not advocate taking him in the top 20 picks, but it makes sense to draft him late in the first round.


Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas

Adonai Mitchell is one of several receivers that could find himself selected in the first round. Mitchell is a big-bodied receiver with blazing 4.34/40 speed. As they use to say about Cris Carter, “All Adonai Mitchell does is catch touchdowns.” He excels at catching contested balls, and just looking at his metrics, I wonder to myself, “Why isn’t he involved more?” From what I can gather his first gear is a bit weak and that immediate moment off the ball is causing him to lack ideal separation. Late word is that Adonai Mitchell was inconsistent when taking medication for diabetes causing drastic mood swings. This seems to be spooking teams late in the evaluation process.


Xavier Legette, WR South Carolina

I really want to call Legette a size receiver as he looks bigger than what he is – 6’1’’. Interestingly enough, he does have 4.39/40 speed. Legette is a confusing prospect because his measurements do not add up to his playing style. He is a more fluid than fast and uses his frame to catch passes. Again, Legette is another potential first round receiver.



Edgerrin Cooper, ILB Texas A&M

Cooper is an interior linebacker who might be considered at the bottom of the first round. Cooper is asenior that measures out pretty well. He stands in at 6’2’’ 230 lbs and runs a 4.51/40, so it is easy to see why teams might be interested. Based on his playing style, it is clear that Cooper is a high effort player that wants to be good. The problem is that he lacks ideal body control and often finds himself poorly positioned. Cooper misses too many tackles, and this could keep hi

 

I promised to be brief ;-)

 

With the 21st pick, I think the most important thing that you can do is walk into a draft with an open mind. I am with you on different scenarios taking us in different directions in terms of players. One thing that I always think about is the mock drafts are not real. We read so many that they start to feel real. Do you remember Malik Willis? Almost every mock draft had him going in the first round. When the draft came, he went in the third round. Turns out, he was never a first round pick. Heck, he wasn't a second round pick. With that in mind, it is entirely possible that a guy we never expected could fall to us (and quite possibly deservedly so).

Buckle up - 21 is gonna be a fun spot to draft from.

 

I'm curious about your take on this. The general view amongst the scouting world is that there are 15-20 guys with a "true first round grade." Basically, these are guys that regardless of the year and the relative strength or weakness of that class would grade out as a first rounder. I really, really think that, because of quarterbacks and let's assume one or two reaches, there will be one or two of those guys available when we are picking. This may or may not happen to be a position of need.

I know you want to move back and acquire picks, but let's assume that doing so would virtually ensure us not getting a player of that caliber. Would you trade back or select the true first rounder?