A quick and dirty look at new HC Adam Gase

Hey guys,

I don't want to distract from tonight's preseason match-up against Dallas but I wanted to post a couple findings I came across to see what people thought. Once again, it's all just food for thought.

Like everyone here, I’ve been wondering what affect Adam Gase is going to have on Miami’s existing offense. Just for kicks, I grabbed some data from his prior stints in Denver and Chicago. Keep in mind of course that in both cases he was working under HC John Fox. In Denver he may have had the best QB in the NFL while in Chicago he had—at least according to DE Michael Bennett—the worst, lol. Classy as always Seattle!

In all seriousness, I did spend yesterday afternoon doing a bunch of different projections for Miami involving all kinds of scenarios from conservative to optimistic but in the end it was too much to post and to be honest, probably pointless. It’s easier just post the numbers and ask you all if they mean anything. If nothing else, it’s helpful in gaining perspective.

Manning’s numbers:

7.8 YPA, 6.1 TD%, 2.3 Int%, 2.4 Sck%, 66.7 Cmp% - (’04-’10 w. Colts)
8.0 YPA, 6.3 TD%, 1.9 Int%, 3.6 Sck%, 68.6 Cmp% - (’12 w. Den)
8.1 YPA, 7.5 TD%, 2.0 Int%, 2.8 Sck%, 67.3 Cmp% - (’13-’14 w. Gase)

I don’t see much change in any of these numbers except the TD% but that’s inflated because of the absurd 2013 that Manning had where it spiked to 8.3%. The following year it returned to 6.5% which is normal Manning. And yeah, the sacks technically came down but remember, 2012 was Manning assuming control of a new offense while returning from surgery. Whether rust or rest, it’s not surprising he took a few more sacks that first year in Denver. We should also remember that Gase inherited the OC role in Denver after being a positional coach so it’s likely he was tweaking, adjusting and polishing the offense alongside Peyton.

Cutler’s numbers:

7.0 YPA, 4.9 TD%, 3.3 Int%, 7.0 Sck%, 62.9 Cmp% - (’12-’14)
7.6 YPA, 4.3 TD%, 2.3 Int%, 6.0 Sck%, 64.4 Cmp% - (’15 w. Gase)

Cutler’s Sck% dropped 15% while his Int% dropped over 30%. Gase clearly focused on getting Cutler to avoid mistakes. I didn’t watch the Bears but I’d assume maybe the O-line improved as well? Most importantly, Fox and Gase balanced out the run/pass ratio. Under Fox and Gase, Cutler went from passing 63% of the time to only 53% of the time. For the record, Gase only had Manning passing about 58% of the time in Denver.


Two Quick Guesses about 2016:

We’re certainly not going to get the 63% passing we grew accustomed to under Lazor. Based on the number of plays Miami is likely to run (~950), I’d estimate Ryan’s attempts drop from 590 to between 530 and 550.

Under Lazor, Ryan was getting sacked on 7.7% of his attempts. If Ryan’s Sck% comes down to the extent Cutler’s did, he’d be at 6.5%. That’ still high but along with the fewer total attempts, the overall number of sacks is at least getting into a more manageable range (~35). To put that in perspective, Ryan’s been averaging upwards of 50 over the last few years.


A little glimmer of hope regarding YPA:

YPA is certainly one of the best indicators of a QB’s ability. Variations like ANY/A also exist. Ultimately we just cannot point to many bad QBs with high YPA numbers. We believe in YPA. Being above 8.0 is great. Being above 7.5 is still good. But anything below that is kind of dubious. And certainly anything below 7.0 is weak. But it’s hard to predict when and where things will click for a QB in the stat column. For instance, last year Andy Dalton’s YPA rose from dubious to superb out of nowhere. He became one of the league leaders overnight. And while veterans like Brady, Brees, Romo and Eli often sink into the dubious range, they’re proven to be capable of more.

It should be noted that under the tandem of Philbin and Lazor, Ryan’s YPA was only about 6.7. But in the 12 games following Philbin’s firing, Ryan’s YPA skyrocketed to 7.5. In those final 12 games, Ryan’s production remained while he went from throwing 43 to 35 passes per game. A weak start gave way to a strong finish. In fact, Ryan was around 9.0 in the final two games, but that’s not important.

The good news is that Gase is proven to positively affect a QBs YPA. The bad news is that we can’t really say for sure where Ryan’s expected/baseline YPA should be. We could conservatively claim he’s a 6.9 guy based on the Philbin-era or point to the more recent post-Philbin data and use that. Depending on which side you take the projection for 2016 lies somewhere in the 7.3 to 7.9 range.

Based on 2015 rankings, that sort of projection would take Ryan up from 21st to at least 16th and maybe as high as 6th. Like I said—a glimmer of hope!