Dolphins now have Vegas’ 10th-best odds to win Super Bowl | The Daily Dolphin (via http://ble.ac/teamstream-) http://teamstre.am/1LGoqpj
The other thing that I noticed in those Vegas rankings- we play the two teams with the worst odds in the league in Weeks 1 & 2, and 4 of the 5 teams with the worst odds in the first five weeks of the season. Not a bad way to ease into the season
LOL, sure. If only we had Pro Bowl Guards like Seattle, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, New England, Denver, Dallas, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. We'd be much higher.
Sounds nice, but in football matchups are just as important as overall talent. It's not wise to chalk up wins based on the generic talent of a particular team. For example, under Philbin Miami has the same record vs the Patriots as they do vs the Bills. 7-0 vs the Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Falcons, Seahawks. 0-3 vs the Titans, Bucs, Chiefs.
You don't think we'd be ranked higher if we had pro-bowl guards? Of course we would. Look, I agree with you that guard isn't one of the most important positions, but you often come across as if we don't need an upgrade there because it's just "guard". Just look at the DL's we'll face, look at how a bad OL affects the QB and the entire offense, and I think it's clear one should take upgrading the guard position seriously.
If we had Pro Bowl guards we would be weaker at more important positiins, that's pretty much how the salary cap works. I totally agree that we will face some disruptive DL play. Those teams will also have to face our DL and they'll have to do it w/o an offense as balanced or a QB anywhere near as good as Tannehill. Looking at the schedule do you see a single team with a DL that will cause more issues for us than out DL will cause for them? I honestly don't think we'd be ranked any higher based on better guards. Better CBs, QB, a fully healthy Albert, those might move the needle.
Looking at the odds to win the SB: https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/2016-nfl-futures-2016-super-bowl-50.sbk Dolphins are at +2800, while Steelers are at +2500. That's a really small difference and easily something that if you had 2 pro-bowl guards (with no subtraction elsewhere) we'd probably overcome. As far as the salary cap issue.. it's pretty clear given what Mathis got that we could have paid for his services had he wanted to come here for the same amount of money. Salary cap wasn't the reason we didn't get Mathis. And regarding the DL issue.. I think that since Tannehill is a far better QB than whoever the Bills put out there, the decrease in performance we'd incur due to a poor OL facing the Bills' DL is greater than the decrease in performance they'd incur.. because they have less to lose in the first place.
So I guess pre-season DOES matter for some things. We didn't have those odds before the last 3 games. I'd change the AFC list but not by much...no way Denver is that high, Peyton's arm is noodling, and he sucks in the post-season anyway overall. Instead of 6th, I'd have them 8/9'ish.
It does matter a bit. To quantify how much it matters through the odds, I remember the Dolphins being -120 for over 9 wins before preseason at that site, while we're -150 for over 9 wins now. For those that don't understand what that means, it means that before the preseason you had to bet $120 to win $100 if the Dolphins won 10 games or more, while now you have to bet $150 to win $100 for 10 or more wins.
I think that Baltimore is overrated by a lot of people. I see a 8-8 or 9-7 club who ends up in third place in their division.
So basically with those odds and the teams they have rated higher than the Dolphins, they consider the Dolphins the sixth best team in the AFC. Well at least if they finish in that spot, they will make the playoffs and have an opportunity to advance to the SB.
People are sleeping on the Rams. Foles is being severely underrated. They added Gurley. Their defense is fierce. After the rough start last season they had some bigtime blowout wins with crap at QB. Not the biggest fan of Fisher but I have them going 11-5 which might be good enough to win the division.
Interesting because I see the Rams as a potential dumpster fire this year. I look at their defense and I can imagine them being decent. Then I look at their offense and I can imagine them picking in the top 5 next year. I guess it remains to be seen how well the in-house promotion of Frank Cignetti to offensive coordinator will work, but there's a real sum of the parts problem in that town. And that's in addition to a pure personnel issue. I don't believe Gurley is going to make an impact in his first year back from that ACL injury. I like Tre Mason but I don't think he's going to star in the mean time. The receivers unit is a mess, IMO. The best player on the unit is probably Stedman Bailey, yet he's physically limited AND for some reason they keep him buried on the depth chart. Chris Givens could be OK but there's something underachieving about him, hence he's not a starter on the depth chart. Jared Cook was always overrated when they signed him to that big contract. Then the offensive line. Oh god the offensive line. Holy hell this could be the worst OL in the league. Greg Robinson should be playing left guard, not left tackle. Been saying that since college. They think rookie Jamon Brown is a pro bowl guard. Good luck with that. He certainly wasn't a good tackle. They have another rookie right next to him at right tackle in Rob Havenstein. I thought Wisconsin's OL was overrated, part of the reason I liked Melvin Gordon so much, and Havenstein was part of that overrated designation. Barrett Jones is their starting center too. First off I didn't think he was great at Alabama by any means. Second he has all of 23 snaps worth of regular season experience, and he's been bad in two preseasons since joining the pros. I watched this offensive line during the preseason this year and MAN were they bad. Rodger Saffold is the only guy that can play, and with him playing all of four snaps this preseason and having such a bad injury history, how can you count on him? I think there's a strong possibility that Nick Foles was created by Chip Kelly's system. The big warning sign there is that he wasn't even able to be consistent within Kelly's system. He was a below-average quarterback before he met Chip Kelly, then he was way above average for a year, then he was below average again even though he was still in Kelly's system. With Kelly obviously having sold out on the guy in favor of a player that people wouldn't have necessarily thought of as being better than Foles (talking about Sam Bradford), I'll throw my lot in with the Chipper on this one and say that Foles is unlikely to find the same magic in a new system with new players that he did for one short year in 2013. There is plenty of precedent for a quarterback having a magical year as far as efficiency goes and then never being able to reproduce it. Brian Griese comes to mind. I love that Rams defensive line with Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Aaron Donald and Nick Fairley. But it also might be a little one-note, and I'm not in love with the linebackers backing them up, although Ayers was probably a smart addition (wish Miami would've pursued). Then again apparently on their depth charts they have Fairley on the bench behind Brockers, and Ayers behind Jo-Lonn Dunbar, so evidently there's room to shoot themselves in the foot. The secondary...iffy now that E.J. Gaines has gone on IR for the year. Trumaine Johnson has talent but is not as consistent as even a rookie Gaines was. Janoris Jenkins is obviously very good, though not exactly dependable from a personality/consistency standpoint. Definitely not impressed with the safety position there. I would keep an eye on Jacob Hagen to see if they try and sneak him onto the practice squad by the way.
I agree w/Unlucky. New System/New OC. - Lost Gary Kubiac as OC. Trestman is his successor. Marc Trestman is a bit of a wild card. I think he's a downgrade from Kubiac, especially since Flacco is coming off of one of his most productive seasons under Kubiac. Forsett fantasy owners will love him. Key losses: - Lost deep threat, Torrey Smith (16.9 yards per reception avg for career) and leading TD scorer (11). - Lost Ngata in the middle. - Dennis Pitta is done. - Steve Smith lost another year of life and his career. He's old. After a strong start (4/6 games w/100 yards, 4 TD's, 35 catches for roughly 550 yards), he faded. Roughly half of his total production came from the first 6 games. And they played some really ****ty defenses in the final 10 games. He should of picked them apart. And he no longer has much protection from other receivers. Defenses will key on him w/Smith gone. Key additions: - Maxx Williams might turn out great, but historically rookie TE's don't adjust to the NFL as quickly as other positions. Outside of Gronk, most TE's need seasoning. I think he'll make some plays here and there, but I'm not banking on him contributing significantly. - 1st round pick Beshard Perriman doesn't run clean routes, lacks strong ball skills, and has iffy hands. Guys w/those traits don't often have rookie success at WR. Misc: - Ravens receiving weapons are lacking, period. - Tough division, finished 3rd last season and everyone else got better while Baltimore took a step back, IMO. - 11th hardest schedule as it stands right now (137-117-2). And at least 4 teams who didn't make the playoffs got better (KC, Mia, SD, STL). Only gimmie on their schedule is Oakland, IMO. I don't think Baltimore gets double digit wins and struggles to get 9. 8-8 is my prediction. They'll be back in the hunt soon enough. Great front office and great HC.
What Clark said! I think that they overachieved last season, and are only the third best team in their division. And really, I think that they'd be the third best team in the AFC East and West too. Probably the 8th best team in the conference, just above the Bills and Chargers, IMO. I think that Flacco may be the most overrated QB in the league and their offensive weapons are lacking. Their OL has some holes (same as ours, I know), and that they are old and thin on spots on defense.
This makes me feel good. Vegas isn't into handing out free money. Based on this, we have to feel pretty good about the team's chances to make the playoffs.
The question of the century for me is did Kelly make Foles or did Foles make Kelly? The beauty is we get to find out!! Kelly is a 0.500 coach with QBs not named Foles. Bradford is a 0.500 QB. Fisher has been a 0.500 coach in St. Louis. Its one of the most intriguing sidenotes of the season for me. If Foles stays healthy my prediction is the Rams win 11 games and the Eagles win 9 games.