Barry Jackson: Big season looming for potential 2016 free agents Miller & Vernon

I think Miller is good but replaceable... Vernon they need to lock down.

I love having Suh, but, his contract is going to make for some tough decisions.

 

I like both players, the real issue is the time wasted w/Coach Joe.

My pov is Vernon is expendable if Miller has a dominant season, De's are just not that hard to replace in the 4-3.

 

im gonna give this kid Ajayi a legit chance before we start talking drafting Henry no?..Ajayi has a lot of talent..

if Ajayi flashes hard a as a rookie, we can probably live with Miller going somewhere else.

 

Depends on Miller's asking price. If there's a reasonable deal to be made, then Miami should do it. He's still young enough for a 2nd contract to be worth while. Miller fits this offense well as a one cut and go runner. Going to be interesting to see how he plays this year w/some added bulk.


As for Vernon... No. At this point, I'm not interested in locking him up long term. Vernon has never come close to generating a consistent pass rush. Even in his double digit sack season, a majority of those sacks were the result of the QB holding on to the ball too long or Cam Wake/Interior pressure forcing the QB in his direction. It wasn't surprising to see his sack numbers come back to earth. Vernon, as of now, is another Kenny Mixon or Lorenzo Bromell. Miami was smart enough not to pay those guys, and let other teams waste their money. Sadly, Jason Taylor was in his prime and currently, Cam Wake is nearing/at the end of his, so it's not a 1:1 situation...

Dion Jordan was brought in for a reason. Yeah, he's an idiot and can't rush for **** at DE, but obviously Miami wanted to upgrade the pass rush. Had Jordan panned out at DE, Vernon would be an afterthought. I know a lot of people like Vernon, but I can't understand why. He's average at best. You don't make the playoffs when you're paying average players big money. We've taken enough steps backwards in that regard. With Suh and Tannehill's new deals, Miami has to be smart with every penny.

I'm hoping Fede makes some noise this season and makes moving on from Vernon this obvious decision.

 

Miller and Vernon are tough calls. Both players appear to have NFL futures but each is really banking on 1 good season at this point: Vernon’s 2013 and Miller’s 2014. I think both decisions will require we see what happens in 2015 and it will likely be an either-or situation. I'm almost 100% sure that the Dolphins would rather resign Vernon at this point in time. There are probably 7-8 moves they've made recently pointing to that. If the D-line is dominant, Tannehill has a big year and the team reaches the play-offs, I see Miller further losing leverage in negotiations with Miami and going elsewhere. If Tannehill regresses or the D-line disappoints, Miller holds value and Vernon’s stock goes down.


My overall thoughts on Lamar Miller and why I think Miami would pass on him today:

Miller exceeded expectation in 2014 and showed he was surprisingly durable playing much of the season with a shoulder injury. He also established himself as a consistent contributor, accounting for 8 of the team’s 12 rushing TDs, nearly 60% of the team’s rushing yardage and a highly efficient 5.1 ypc. This was an improvement over his first two seasons. 2012 was a nothing year for him production wise. In 2013 his role increased but which he accounted for just 2 of the team’s 8 rushing TDs, only 49% of the team’s rushing yardage (as the #1 RB) and a moderate 4.0 ypc.

Despite the improvements of 2014 over Miller’s mediocre 2013/2012, the knocks are fairly well-established. Miller’s 216 rushes in 2014 accounted for only 55% of the team’s attempts. In 2013, his 177 rushes accounted for only 50% of the team’s attempts. While in the NFL, Miller has never averaged over 13.5 carries per game. His total of 65 receptions and 450 yards between 2013 and 2014 is unspectacular—indicative of a full-time RB getting his share of check-downs and being tackled shortly thereafter.

This seems to say that if you chose to pay Miller today, you’d be paying for the high ypc by itself, which is more or less a single-season stat. The 8 TDs of 2014 are countered by the 2 in 2013 so that's a wash with the average of 5 being pedestrian. The question is how much do you pay a RB that touches the ball only 13-14 times a game and who is not a receiving threat?

While I like Miller’s 5.1 ypc, the role he plays is not one of an individual generator of offense (a la Jamaal Charles who can threaten 2k of all-purpose production). Lamar Miller is an important and productive role-player. Re-signing Miller won’t be about doing whatever it takes to sign a player (a la Suh). It will be about negotiation and putting a dollar-value on Miller’s production before looking very seriously at the alternatives knowing that any sort of bidding war is a bad, bad situation.

One thing to consider is that we’re all happy right now because Miller, Williams and Ajayi are all contributing relatively cheaply. Theoretically, in 2015 the Dolphins should get more out of the RB position than what they’re putting in. Do they want to lose that advantage by paying big money to Miller or attempt to save money, keep that advantage and bear the burden of replacing the production? Should they lean on GM Dennis Hickey to find options in FA or the mid-to-late rounds of the draft? Do they continue to add UDFAs who can produce as the #3 and #4 RBs? My feeling is that's what they're going to do.

The early offer of a big contract to Tannehill, the relatively cheap acquisition of Moreno last year, the preference towards pass-blocking lineman, the drafting of a WR (Parker) over a RB (Gordon) in round 1, the acquisition of RBs late (Williams/Ajayi), the acquisition of a slew of FA pass-catchers (Cameron, Stills, Jennings), and Miller’s strikingly low carries-per-game paint a clear picture—At this point, I think they want to play money-ball at the RB position.



My thoughts on Olivier Vernon:

With Wake and Suh on the D-line surrounded by a few good young prospects, I think it’s reasonable to say that Vernon needs a special season in order to be viewed as a must-keep piece, especially after a disappointing 2014. With a lack of elite pass rushing ability, Vernon’s athleticism, speed and motor seem his best attributes. He is productive but he’s not a pass rush specialist. Vernon is a valuable role-player who looks good complementing a star in Wake.

With that in mind, there’s a point to be made that investing in Vernon (knowing you have Suh and other young players) would help the transition at DE as Wake declines, eventually leaves and Miami grooms his replacement. However, I believe Wake is a more valuable piece today than he was a year ago when I called for him to be traded for long-term rebuilding. The horrible play of the defense in 2014 seemed to support my suggest as evidence that Wake’s value was indeed lost in Miami. However, the acquisition of big FAs and good drafting should lead to the play-offs in 2015 during which Wake will be an asset.

Knowing the weaknesses at LB/CB/S behind Vernon, I think fans should be cautious in understanding what that implies. Losing Vernon could steal a great deal of the legitimacy that the D-line currently brings to the defense as a whole. Lose Vernon and opposing offenses will probably run left against a young replacement with good effect. Replace Vernon’s steady rush with something more inconsistent and you risk exposing your new OLB and CB.

That said, Miller bears the burden of running behind a questionable O-line. Vernon plays opposite Wake and will now get the benefits of being close to Suh as well. Whose job is easier? I think it’s clear that Vernon is more the beneficiary of his surroundings than is Miller. But whose role is more important? Who's harder to replace? That's the question! It could be argued that replacing Miller’s 13 carries per game is easier than finding a DE as solid and reliable as Vernon.


As I said, 2015 will be major for both of these players. The more successful the team, the more likely Vernon gets the contract over Miller.

 

I would keep Miller.

 

With a contract like Suh and Tannehill we have to be able to target certain units and keep it cheap and young, running back is perfect for that..keep your d line in tact, unless you come across a superstar back.

 

I agree with this logic. Having a great HB is nice and all but look what NE did with a guy they pick up week 16. Losing Vernon would be a HUGE loss for the entire team imo, not so much with Miller but I do respect his talent. Just can't afford both in all likelyhood, but like you say, the dline should try and remain intact if at all possible. Which reminds me I hope we resign Shelby too.

 

Y'all crack me up....that is all I have to say.

 

Vernon is wildly under appreciated around here, but I don't think they can keep him. They can't add another long term big money DL contract right now.

Miami is pretty much going to have to be targeting edge rusher early in the near future. They need guys on rookie contracts producing

 

Personally, I'd rather keep Vernon than Miller if you can swing it cost-wise. That said, I think keeping/not keeping Vernon would have more to do with a potential new coach/scheme in 2016. That's a potential factor, and it could be a big one. Another factor is how much do you think Derrick Shelby can contribute; can he be a starter? He's also a free agent next year and is going to be cheaper than Vernon.

 

Its just as likely that neither guy would have developed if not for Philbin and his staff, which have a pretty good record of developing talent.

 

i think it would be a shame if we let local guys go somewhere else, we have to find a way to keep them both

 

I mentioned in another thread that I cannot picture both Vernon and Wake being here next year. That being the case, the money should be there for Miller if he continues to trend upwards. A 25 year old (next spring) RB is a worthwhile investment, IMO.

 

No, I don't think you give OV the equivalent of Wake's contract, especially over several years. I'm skeptical Miami would be in the market to add a player with that kind of money if he were someone else's free agent.

Vernon is very likely to price himself out of Miami next year.

Wake is going to have to really fall off next year for Miami to not end up gambling with him for 2016, I think.

 

Hell no. I wouldn't give Vernon half of Wakes contract...

 

No way. I mean...NO WAY. Vernon has not shown that he is anywhere near the player Wake is. I don't think Vernon would make the guy opposite of him have a massive sack year because all the attention is focused on him.

 

People look at Olivier Vernon and say, "he's no Cam Wake." What do you think we'd be saying if Lamar Miller was playing beside Jamaal Charles?! I don't have any questions about either player. They are both very good, but certainly short of dominant.

Don't hold Cam Wake's dominance against Olivier Vernon or fool yourself into thinking Wake is money while Vernon is not. There are plenty of times Wake gets criticized for disappearing--particularly during big games. In Vernon's defense, there are plenty of times that he is right there with Wake in the backfield, both DEs having beat the OT in front of them. Wake gets there a little earlier and gets the sack but Vernon has a big impact and to downplay that is foolish. Vernon is a fine young DE whose overall skill-set and high motor are not easily found.

That said, neither Vernon nor Miller are elite players, so if you lost one, you'd still be afloat. That brings up the issue of which position is more valuable. I can't speak too confidently about Wake because I don't know whether or not the team is open to letting him go. I argued last year before all these big moves that Wake's talent would be wasted here and that Miami would be better off rebuilding. Now, it looks more like Wake will be a valuable piece of in the play-offs over the next few years.

I'll post my in depth thoughts on Lamar Miller below...

 

The question is how much money the team is comfortable paying a RB who’s carrying the ball less than 15 times per game, whose receiving abilities are marginal and whose overall output will be affected by the presence of two good, young, backup RBs.

The Issue of Limited Carries:

I believe a long list of factors indicate that this is an offense designed to highlight the passing game and optimize the production coming from a stable of RBs each getting limited carries. This has been continually evidenced in both the stats as well as the moves we’ve discussed all off-season. This isn’t to say that all RBs on the roster are equal but the #1 RB in Miami is not going to get 260-300+ carries like most feature RBs and that fact has implications on how much money that player will be offered.

In 2014, Miami RBs rushed 330 times for 1,546 yards. While those would’ve been indicative of a dominant player had it been an individual, the fact 4 RBs combined to produce those numbers shows the team’s true philosophy. While Miller accounted for roughly 2/3rds of both figures, his 216 attempts ranked only 15[SUP]th[/SUP] among NFL RBs, behind virtually every other big name. The same number would’ve ranked 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in 2013. Miller is average 13-14 carries per game.

Most interesting to me is that the team’s total rushing attempts ranked only 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the league. What about having a running QB, does that help or hurt? No team with a mobile QB, other than Washington (just ahead of Miami at 21), ranked outside the top-16 in rushing attempts (Sea-2, Car-8, SF-9, GB-14, KC-16). This shows that Tannehill’s 56 rushes should’ve helped the cause and promoted a more run-heavy mix. So even with a QB who’s predictably running 3.5 times per game, Miami is still one of the least active teams when it comes to running the football.

The Lack of Receiving Abilities:

Over the last two seasons, Miller has accounted for 65 receptions and 450 yards. That equates to 2 catches per game with about a 7 yard average. Neither number is particularly useful for an OC hoping to make use of a speedy RB coming out of the backfield. This is the most disappointing fact surrounding Lamar Miller. Either he’s not good at catching the ball or Miami isn’t asking him to. Either way, it’s a limiting factor in negotiations.

The Effects of Good, Young, Backups:

Moreno’s being featured in week-1 stole carries and yards from Miller’s totals. If we take Miller’s 216 carries for 1,099 yards as a 15-game season and project to 16 we get 230 carries for 1,170 yards—something very possible if Miller is again featured in 2014. But remember that Miami’s backup RBs (Williams/Thomas) only produced 299 yards last year. Most fans are projecting that Williams/Ajayi will increase the production of the backup RBs.

If we get too whimsical in assuming that Miller’s production will rise to let’s say 1200 yards and that the backup RBs production will increase by 200 yards we see we’ve already made a wild prediction that would take Miami from the #12 ranked rushing team to the #4 ranked rushing team. Add to that whatever improvements you think Tannehill will add in scrambling and you’re threatening production on the order of Seattle, Dallas and the NYJ. Let’s just agree that’s unlikely. Remember, Miami is the least run-oriented of the NFL's decent offenses.


The Bottom Line:

Miller is a very good fit for what he’s currently being asked to do—but that entails being a role player. His speed and durability could very well produce 1200 yards on the ground given an increased workload however Miller’s value will be a function of how much he improves as a receiver and how much production comes from Williams/Ajayi.

Moving forward it’s wise for Miami to at least get a feel for what Miller and his agent believe he’s worth. Whether they spend the year figuring out the financial moves to keep Miller or they spend it figuring out how to replace the production, the info they collect now helps formulate an optimal strategy.

 

There is a big difference between Wake and Vernon. Wake is unfairly criticized...He is often double teamed, and gets held so much it's not funny.

 

Vernon could have a breakout season, easily. Lamar Miller came into his own last year...We need to hire David Blaine as our accountant.

 

which means you were incorrect on wanting wake gone last year greg.