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PFF on QBs and looking at Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Pauly, May 29, 2015.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    (edited to include deep ball)

    PFF have a few posts up now about how different QBs performed at different aspects of the QB position in 2014.

    I don't know enough about PFFs rankings to say what they mean exactly, but here is a summary of how RT performed last year.

    Under Pressure
    RT faced pressure on 38.0% of his drop backs. 8th worst (of 40)
    NFL Average. 33.4%
    Closest comparisons. Andrew Luck, Teddy Bridgewater
    NFL Worst. Russel Wilson 44.9%, Robert Griffin III 44.9%

    Performance under pressure
    RT 12.7; 3rd best
    Closest comparisons Tom Brady 12.5, Drew Brees. 14.8
    NFL Average 0.0
    NFL best Ben Roethlisberger 18.1

    Performance no pressure
    RT 1.5; 20th of 40
    Closest comparison NFL Geno Smith -0.3, Carson Palmer 1.8
    NFL Average 0.0
    NFL best Aaron Rodgers 31.0

    Against the Blitz
    RT was blazed on 29.0% of downs.
    NFL average was 29.0%
    NFL Worst. Mike Glennon 42.9%

    PFF rating against the blitz
    RT -0.6; 22 of 40
    Closest comparisons. Nick Foles -0.1, Russel Wilson -0.7
    NFL average 0.0
    NFL best Andrew Luck 16.2, Phillip River 16.0

    PFF rating, no blitz
    RT 12.3
    Closest comparisons, Tom Brady 11.8, Ryan Fitzpatrick 10.6.
    NFL best Ben Rothlesberger 30.1, Aaron Rodgers 29.6

    Short Passing
    RT passed short on 50.5% of his passes. 17th highest of 40
    Closest comparisons. Tony Romo 50.4%, Derek Carr 50.7%
    NFL Average 49.8%
    Highest % Tom Brady 58.3%

    PFF Rating for short passes
    RT 11.5, 5th best
    Closest comparisons. Mike Glennon 9.9. Tom Brady 14.3
    NFL Best Aaron Rodgers 19.6

    Mid range passes
    RT passed mid range 24.8% of passes. 12th highest of 40
    Closest comparisons. Philip Rivers 24.5%, Matt Ryan 24.8%
    NFL average 22.6%

    PFF rating for mid range passes
    Ryan Tannehill -1.6, 24th of 40
    Closest comparison Carson Palmer -1.0, Peyton Manning -1.7
    NFL Best Drew Brees 19.7, Teddy Bridgewater 15.0


    Deep Passing
    Deep Passing attempts 21-30 yards
    RT 3.9 %; 37th out of 40
    Closest comparison
    Joe Flacco 4.6%, Robert Griffin III 3.7%
    NFL Average 6.8%
    NFL Lowest Alex Smith 2.5%
    Nfl Highest Mike Glennon 10.7%, Colin Kapernick 10.6%

    PFF efficiency rating 21- 30 yards
    RT 2.3 18th out of 40
    Closest comparison Drew Brees 2.0, Ryan Fitzpatricl 2.3%, Mike Glennon 2.6%
    NFL Average 0.0

    Passes 31-40 yards
    RT 2.4% of passes (33 out of 40)
    Closest comparisons Matt Ryan 2.5%, Colin Kapaernick 2.5%
    NFL Average 3.3%

    PFF efficiency rating 31-40 yards
    RT -3.3
    Closest comparison. Joe Flacco -2.5, Tom Brady -2.5, Phillip Rivers -4.0
    NFL average 0.0

    Passes 41+ yards
    RT 2.4% of plays (14 out of 40)
    Closest comparisons Russel Wilson 2.5%, Mark Sanchez 2.4% Philip Rivers 2.3%

    PFF efficiency rating
    RT 1.2 (11 of 40)
    Closest comparison Drew Brees 1.3, Tony Romo 1.0

    My back of the envelop estimate for all 21+ yard throws.
    RT 8.7% of pass plays
    NFL Average 12.2%

    RT's average efficiency: +0.07 or so close to NFL average (0.0)


    Obviously I will update this when the ratings for deep passes come out, but so far Tanny is rated at being as good or average at most things. The only area he is in the red is in % of snaps where he faced pressure, but the QBs facing the most pressure were the QBs with the worst OLs.
     
  2. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    So in summary:

    Facing Pressure = Above average/High (8th worst in pressure faced (a lot of pressure) - 3rd best when facing that pressure.)
    Facing no pressure = Below average (20th)

    Facing a Blitz = Below average (22nd when facing a league average number of blitzes)
    Facing no Blitz = A bit better than Brady, a lot worse than Big Ben and Rodgers (No data on placement/ranking) (Not sure how performance facing no blitz is different from performance against no pressure)

    Passing Short = Above average/high (5th best when passing what I see should be a league average - 17th of 32) (Short passes make up half of RT entire number of passes)

    Passing Mid = Below Average (A quarter of his passes are mid-range and he's 24th out of 32).


    So:

    He's below average when facing a blitz, or when facing no pressure, or when passing mid range.
    He appears to be just below average when not facing a blitz based upon the best rating being 30.1 and Ryan's being 12.3 - but that's just a guess. He is apparently a little bit better than Brady, though.
    He's above average/high when facing pressure and when passing short.


    No idea how one can be above average against pressure but below average against the blitz, but maybe someone wiser than I can explain it.
     
  3. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I'd say ranking in the 16-24 group (out of 40) is where I would draw the line at being about average.

    I don't know what the rating number means, but it if the NFL average is drawn at 0.0 then my supposition is that a number of '10' means '10% better than average'. I would say a number of between -3 and 3 would be what an average NFL QB would do.

    I am more interested in the broad groupings than the fine detail though
     
  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    If I told people that we could have a QB that is:

    Is as good facing the rush as Brady and Brees....
    Is as good against the blitz as Wilson....
    Throws the short pass less than Brady...
    ...but is as efficient with the short pass as Brady....
    Throws the mid pass as much as Rivers & Ryan....
    ...but is as efficient with the mid pass as Peyton....
    Goes deep as much as Flacco.....
    ...but is as efficient with the deep pass as Brees....

    ....people would be falling over themselves thinking this QB is gonna be the next big thing, but here we're "cautiously optimistic".

    I think what those numbers show is that people have misconceptions of other QBs which in turn, causes them to have unreal expectations of Tannehill when they compare.
     
  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    After looking at the numbers a bit more my general impression is that with regards to efficiency RT is no worse than NFL average in any significant category, and is top 10 in a few.

    However there are problems related to frequency that RT was put in situations, specifically
    1) RT faced pressure significantly more often from average, but it wasn't extra pressure from blitzes.
    2) RT attempted significantly fewer deep balls than the average NFL QB.

    My theory is that RTs 'problems with the deep ball' stem more from the fact that his line let through more pressure on average, leading to Lazor to call shorter patterns more often.
     
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  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I believe the pressure vs blitz thing is related to the link I put up a week or two ago, where it broke Tannehill down in different groupings:

    No blitz/No pressure
    No blitz/Pressure

    Blitz/No Pressure
    Blitz/Pressure

    Etc. So, in that other link I posted to from PFF (I think it was PFF), it showed that Tannehill faced alot of pressure in no blitz situations.

    Here's the link I posted again:

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/05/qbs-in-focus-pressure-and-the-blitz/
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, and I pointed out when I referenced these numbers, that, if a QB is facing a generic 4 man rush, and is experiencing pressure, then that is leaving 7 guys in coverage. That makes it that much more difficult. Not to mention, maybe it's 6 guys in coverage, with a linebacker in a spy on Tannehill, to prevent a scramble. But, yes, Tannehill experienced pressure from no blitz: on 129 of his dropbacks, Tannehill saw pressure in an average of 2.5 seconds, with there being no blitz and pressure applied. He also had the deepest target depth when throwing with pressure on him, averaging 13.6 yards per target.
     
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  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can have pressure with no blitz, and no pressure from a blitz. Blitz just means they send an extra rusher(s).
     
  9. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That is a lot of gymnastics there.
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Its not an ounce of gymnastics. Each point is backed by the stats provided.

    Your bs of calling this gymnastics is not backed by anything, otoh.
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It doesn't fit the narrative, though, Fin D.
     
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  12. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Most of that seems about right. I was a little surprised his % of short passes wasn't higher above league average. Aside from the sacks (which isn't all on him), the biggest problem seems like his lack of being able to gain big chunks of yards. Getting 5 yards at a time is fine if you're Tom Brady and can avoid sacks at a high rate. But we lose too much yardage with sacks to do that. So we either have to cut the sacks dramatically or improve in YAC from the 5 yard throws, or simply just get more big plays in the middle and deep ranges.
     
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  13. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's a lot of gymnastics. Comparing him up and down to the good QBs, but just cherry picking what name he compares to say, ooh see he's comparable to Brees, Brady, Big Ben.

    Saying he throws deep as much as Flacco but has the efficiency of Brees tells us what? That he's among the bottom of attempts deep, and then go search for a big name that didn't do well last year deep? That's gymnastics bro. Why not stick with Flacco, and show how Tanny threw as much as Flacco but Flacco was 21 of 56 on passes over 20 yards with 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and seven drops. Because that makes him look bad, so grab a big name who also did bad last year.

    At the end of the day, his bread and butter is the short and medium pass, and according to these stats, he's among the best at 1-10 yards, and among the worst at 11-20. We're not even at the deep pass yet.

    Surprised Manning is in there, but 24th place with 32 starting positions in the NFL isn't good, especially as these passes are just 11-20. So what gives. I don't find these numbers that encouraging. He's only good at one thing last year, and that's the 1-10 yard pass, according to these numbers.
     
  14. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    These are interesting numbers. Some are expected (long-range, short-range) and some aren’t (bad at mid-range?).

    A comment on the pressure. The numbers indicate that RT is being pressured a lot but he’s not being blitzed more than other QBs. That’s in line with our belief that (1) our O-line is allowing too much pressure and that (2) RT may contribute in some way to that as well. Based on my view, I thought RT improved last year in terms of side-stepping pressure and being more slippery in the pocket. The above number says that’s correct and that he was actually 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best in “handling pressure.” I don’t know how reliable that ranking is or who’s actually put their name on that but, ok. What we don’t know is what he’s doing with the ball in those instances which has been one of my questions. My hunch is that those events are important and may hold the key to RT taking that next step as a passer. My assessment merely from watching RT last year was that he slid away from pressure well but mostly checked it down. The “short passing” numbers would support that somewhat.

    I’ve seen most other good QBs use those opportunities to push the ball down the field. I think RT’s first response to this point has been to get the ball to someone nearby quickly after eluding pressure. That is the smart, safe decision for a young QB. I’d say that he’s improved quite a bit since entering the league and he’s crossed one thing off the list (side-stepping pressure). Maybe this year we’ll see more of those scenarios result in chunk yardage, particularly with better receiving targets. That could have a big influence on RT’s success. I’m happy to see the numbers on pressure because I want to believe what I see in RT on Sundays is truly legit. I believe he’s got the pocket awareness thing pretty much figured out. I’m not convinced however that he sees the field as well as he should.

    The fact he doesn’t stand out as being that great when he’s not facing pressure indicates he may still have problems seeing the field, moving through progressions and trusting his WRs. I don’t blame him for not trusting his WRs when they weren’t that good or for being held back a bit when he had time but his WR didn’t get open, but any QB worth his salt needs to be able to operate cleanly and efficiently when he’s given time and should be highly productive in such instances.

    I’d say I’m very happy with where RT is at skill-wise but he has deficiencies which are visible in both the statistics as well as under the lights on game-day and I believe these current limitations are important in terms of long-term production and Play-off potential so I’m not keen on sweeping them aside. I have no reason to believe RT can’t keep improving, particularly with a better supporting cast. I am very anxious to see what 2015 brings and whether RT and his receivers will start making those “wow” plays on a more regular basis.


    All of it makes you question how the Dolphins didn't do more to fix the Guard position this offseason. I wanted skill position in round 1 but I would've been happy if Miami took 6 Guards after that. It's hard to look at the FAs, at Jamil Douglas and at Thomas and Turner while concluding the team is going to be fine. The stats say it was a big issue and the caliber of guys the team has brought in does not indicate the team sees it as such.

    For all the love going around, that's a Tannenbaum and Hickey thing. Anyone can see the team needs interior O-line talent...where is it?
     
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  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    lol, I guess I need flash cards to help you along.
     
  16. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Greg, the numbers from PFF had Tannehill attempting the deepest throws of any QB when under pressure...so, not sure it's accurate to say that he dumps it off when under pressure. Although, maybe that changed in 2014. And yes, cuch, that article was from June of 2014, so it didn't include the 2014 season.
     
  18. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that the blitz causes confusion compared to what he expected to see which leads to a more panicked response. Pressure that just comes from a normal play is expected and easier to deal with (unless the O-lineman just whiffs). Learning to anticipate the blitz generally is an experience thing. Over time an NFL QB will see just about every potential blitz and once you see anything enough times it ceases to be a surprise. When we drafted RT we knew he came in with less QB experience so obviously he had seen fewer blitzes. It seems that RT is naturally pretty good against pressure b/c he's athletic, smart, accurate with a strong enough arm and has a decently fast release. But he's still susceptible to the unexpected. I said when we drafted RT that it would take about 5 seasons of play for his experience to reach the level where it's not an issue for him relative to other QBs. That seems to be about the time when most QBs become whatever they're to be. Obviously there will still be surprises. Peyton is still surprised at times, but that occurrence is far less common. I also think that experience tends to improve a QBs ability to read defenses for the same reasons. I think that's what the general conclusion of those stats suggest. RT is pretty good QB all-around, but his experience deficit is still reflected when facing blitzes and when reading defenses on the mid-range and longer passes. My experience is that almost all QBs improve in those areas over time.
     
  19. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The date on the link says it's from the summer of 2014.

    I'm still surprised about Tanny's 11-20 yard number. I thought for sure he was tops in the league there. According to this, he only did one thing really well which was the 1-10 yard pass. That's just odd to be able to compile the numbers he did while being below average beyond 11-20 yards. I'd have to see the numbers breakdown before believing it because, PFF.
     
  20. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    If the article is a year old, then you would have to think that RT's numbers would be better all around after adding in last season.

    And as was said, facing a lot of pressure without a blitz is really a rotten situation, because so many guys are back in coverage. It didn't seem as bad in 2014, but I remember in 2012 and 2013 how game after game it seemed like RT was running for his life just after the ball was snapped AND the other team had tight coverage everywhere. Its hard to do well when that happens, no matter who the QB is.

    I'd like to see the new numbers when they post them, and I also that that if our OL is healthy to start 2015 that we'll see the best things from our offense that we have in about 20 years, and honestly maybe ever in my time as a fan because our running game generally sucked in the early 90s when Marino was still awesome.
     
  21. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No, resnor's link is a year old, the one in the op I believe is recent.
     
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  22. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Looking at the three below average categories from 2013, I found these articles for 2014.

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/28/qbs-in-focus-intermediate-passing-2/


    Tannehill was tied for 11th in the league (with Matt Ryan) on intermediate passing. So compared to last season he was now above average in that category.

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/21/qbs-in-focus-against-the-blitz/

    Against the blitz Tannehill just about average, slightly below (-0.6, league average is always 0.0). No real change from the year before (19th vs. 22nd in 2013).

    I didn't see an article on no pressure posted yet.
     
  23. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Where does he grade in terms of "It" factor?
     
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  24. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Not sure why we're arguing about stats of 2012 or 2013 then. What's the point?

    Tannehill wasn't supposed to start 2012. Only via injury to David Garrad did he become the starter and he had little in the way of receivers, TEs, and running support. Of course he was going to struggle in all phases of the game. 2013 was the season of "Bully-gate" and we had nothing in the way of quality OL play. Both of these seasons were a wash and only served to get him experience.

    2014 is where you need to begin truly gauging him. And as it was his first in a new offense since leaving HS, I think he played well from the 3rd game on until injuries wracked the OL in the final few games. Still, if not for injuries and poor defensive play in the last 6 games, he'd have led us to the playoffs.

    Expecting good things this season.

    YMMV.
     
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  25. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Roughly 23-25.
     
  26. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's ok.

    She's much higher.
     
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  27. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Interesting other data. FWIW, from Twitter, charting every "interceptable" pass thrown by each QB. Obviously, it's related to a low ypa, but it does jive with the info we heard a few weeks ago where Tannehill is amongst the league's best at avoiding under and overthrows.

    [​IMG]

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Cianaf/status/597883612109877249
     
  28. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Really, that's surprising. I'd like it if that were true. I really want to see Tannehill start pushing the ball downfield more and I think finally the team may have the weapons to do it. I have a feeling that Tannehill's low YPA are really a reflection of growing into the position with few weapons who can really separate on the outside.

    I recall seeing a lot completions to what I'd consider the intermediate range 10-20 yards last year. It doesn't seem like we saw a lot of big plays in those situations last year but maybe I'm wrong. Where did you get the stats exactly?
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Those are PFF stats. It's all in that link I gave a page or two ago. Granted, they were before the 2014 season, but some good stuff nonetheless.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Actually, only one page ago...this isn't the other thread. Lol. They had him throwing it like 13.6 yards when under pressure, which was first in the league.

     
  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    the no pressure one always surprised me, does that speak to his accuracy, or lack thereof, or does it speak to the Wr's/Te/Rb lack of ability to create space?

    Clearly Philbin and Co thought it was on the Wr corps
     
  32. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Alex Smith's number is amazing. Inflated balls? Just kidding, but considering Alex and Ryan both throw similar passes based on air yards from LOS (tying it into your ypa point) Alex Smith's numbers are off the chart. Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw a lot of deep passes, but Matt Ryan does so his number is quite impressive as well.
     
  33. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ah...well, if we're talking Sherman's offense maybe there was a difference between then and now. I don't recall seeing a lot of vertical stuff after pressure last year but hey, like I said, it's either on tape or it's something he has to improve on.

    For what seems like a lot of critical analysis on my part, I'll say this much...there aren't a lot of things Tannehill needs to do. There are a couple things I'd like to see more often from him but if he does those things, he'll be a special QB--a very special QB.

    I'm pretty much fine with ranking Tannehil anywhere in the 11-15 category at this very moment because most of those guys are very good but seem to show weakness when it's all on them--Flacco, Stafford, Dalton, Ryan, etc. To me, Tannehill is that right now and to get there in 3 years after minimal college experience is significant. At worst, I think he's a top-15 QB moving forward. The problem with me is not about what Tannehill isn't (particularly since he's young). It's more about what all the top-10 guys are. The are 5 or so QBs that are just legendary as well as another 5 or so that have been able to play unbelievable football during some point in their career.

    If Tannehill starts making plays outside the pocket or is able to start stretching the field with these new weapons, what will there be to complain about? Virtually nothing in my mind. It'll just be on him to lead this team to wherever it goes.
     
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  34. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    More from Cian Fahey... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...fseason-moves-have-made-them-an-afc-contender

     
  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

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  36. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  37. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Be a question for the author... or CKP or Keith maybe. I just looked up the author based on Keith posting some of his work earlier in the thread and found that article.

    I suspect he used something like what FO or PFF puts out for tracking catchable balls that weren't caught and then put in time compiling the numbers, looking up the plays, etc... You can also figure that he counted in passes that should have been TDs - like the TD pass to Clay against Detroit that Clay failed to secure and several of Wallace's missed TDs that he got hands on and didn't haul in or get his feet down in bounds.
     
  38. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    One thing about the bleacher report article, is that it looks at plays recievers didn't make that they should have, but that's only half the story. We should also be looking at plays that WRs made that they shouldn't have, you know the one handed catches, extra effort to beat a DB kind of play to be complete.
    We know about the times the recievers missed to make Tannehill look bad but unless we also add back in the plays that they made Tanehill look good.

    My gut feeling is that overall the recievers hampered Tanny, but I'd like to see some numbers on the bad throw/reciever made the play happen first.
     
  39. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Some stats of note from PFF on the 2014 season.

    Tom Brady led the NFL in short passes from 1-10 yards at 58.3%. Ckap, ASmith, JFlacco, and ADavis rounded out the top 5. Tannehill was at 50.5%. NFL avg was 49.8% https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/27/qbs-in-focus-short-passing-2/

    In the 11-21 yard range: Stanton, Newton, Whitehurst, EManning, and Hoyer led the league. Tannehill was at 24.8%, tied with MRyan and just ahead of Rivers. NFL avg was 22.6% https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/28/qbs-in-focus-intermediate-passing-2/

    In the 21-30 yard range: Glennon, CKap (10.6%), Foles (9%) and GSmith (8.8%)were the top 5. Tannehill was at 3.9%. Other QBs of note: Brady 6.1%, Stafford 5.9%, Brees 5.4%, Flacco 4.6%, RGriffin 3.7%. NFL avg 6.8% https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/29/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/
     
  40. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

    6,053
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    Mar 23, 2008
    Lake Worth, Fl.
    We don't need all these stats. Just watch the god damn games guys and stop complaining. Tannehill, as far as I am concerned, has 1 major flaw....he's not Marino.
     
    resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.

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