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Ryan Tannehill's Contract: Team Success as a Function of QB Play & Salary

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Tannephins, Feb 8, 2015.

  1. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    We all know Ryan Tannehill is set to be paid here soon, and rightfully so in my opinion.

    I took a look at the correlation between games teams won and their QBs' DVOA ratings (Football Outsiders). Among QBs with at least 350 pass attempts, that correlation was 0.66, which is a fairly strong relationship.

    I then took a look at the partial correlation among team wins, QBs' DVOA ratings, and QBs' 2014 salary cap hits. The thinking here is that every team is limited by the salary cap in its acquisition of talent. If a team is paying a player, a quarterback included, a large amount of money, then naturally there will be less money left over to pay other players, and the team's ability to have talent elsewhere on its roster will be decreased.

    A partial correlation examines the relationship between two variables, with a third variable held constant. Two partial correlations are relevant in this situation. The first partial correlation shows that the correlation between team wins and QBs' salary cap hits, holding QBs' DVOA ratings constant, is -0.55. So, with quarterbacks' actual play (DVOA ratings) held constant, the more a team pays its QB the worse it does in terms of wins. This supports the notion that as teams pay their QBs more money, and those QBs' performances aren't considered in the equation, the talent elsewhere on their rosters is decreased, with fewer wins being the indicator of that decreased "talent" in this instance.

    The second relevant partial correlation is between team wins and QBs' DVOA ratings, holding 2014 salary cap hits constant, and that partial correlation is 0.78. Notice that the correlation between QBs' DVOA ratings and wins increases a good bit (from 0.66 to 0.78) when QBs' salary cap hits are held constant. This supports the notion that as teams get comparatively better play from their quarterbacks, for comparatively less money, they're able to assemble greater talent elsewhere on their rosters and thereby win more.

    The exemplar of this in 2014 was the Seahawks, whose salary cap hit for Russell Wilson was less than a million dollars ($800K), yet it got comparatively good play from him for that salary (the 14th-best DVOA in the league). Another example was the Patriots, who paid Tom Brady $14.8 million against their cap, 11th-highest in the league (believe it or not), and with that money got the 6th-best QB DVOA in the league from him. The converse is Jay Cutler, who was paid $18.5 million against the Bears' cap, 3rd-highest in the league, but who had the 21st-ranked QB DVOA in the league. The Bears won only 5 of their 15 games with Cutler starting at QB in 2014, whereas we know how the Seahawks and Patriots fared with Wilson and Brady.

    So, the upshot is that the relationship between QB play and winning is stronger for teams that get a bigger bang for their buck at the QB position. Obviously this applies to the next major personnel move facing the Dolphins -- how much to pay Ryan Tannehill.
     
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If he wants to win he'll take the friendliest deal possible..I think he's that kind of guy..
     
  3. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    I think the players with that sort of character probably try to strike a balance between asking for what they feel they deserve based on their individual contribution to the team, and the team's need to have talent elsewhere to win. This is why it becomes of paramount importance not to have players on the team who are making a great deal more than their contribution warrants, because then the team is detracting from other players' willingness to be so unselfish. Players' cap hits should match their contributions, roughly.
     
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    This is not a realistic expectation. There is only one notable player to have done this.
     
  5. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I still think that at this point a deal that averages 15-16M per year is fair for both parties.
     
  6. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think that Tannehill will go with a team friendly deal as he knows that we need to have money to spend to continue to build our roster for us to be competitive. We need to sign at least one guard in FA to help complete our OL. We need Albert back healthy as well as Billy Turner to have a huge year. I really think that we are pretty lucky that we have someone with high character and team first beliefs as our QB in Miami.He is definitely smart enough to realize it will take allot more than him to win a Championship. There are 4 guys that if we could get for our defense that would make us the top unit..or very close anyways. DT SUH, LB PATRICK WILLIS, CB BYRON MAXWELL, FS DEVIN McCOURTEY. Think how good the Defense would be. Then pickup OL Tony Franklin or Clint Boling, I like Franklin BETTER as he can play tackle or GUARD. Resign Clay and Odrick if they go with team friendly deals with incentives. Then....we are ready for a highly productive draft with every pick as well as some good UDFA's.
     
  7. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    NFL-wise? The NBA potentially set a precedent (although LeBron's latest actions and Carmelo's deal have done some damage). Brady restructures often and recently turned a bunch of money into non-guaranteed performance/playing dependent payments. In the NFL it's less likely though. Contracts are not fully guaranteed and injuries seemingly are.
     

  8. That seems a little high for him at this point. He still has to prove he is better than he has been so far before seeing that kind of money. His contract can always be renogiated if he excels. Right now i think he is worth 6-8 million with modest garunteed money. I dont see him more than that on the open market
     
  9. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Yeah I'm only referring to the NFL. Brady is the only guy and this is a team that has cheated before, so circumventing the salary cap wouldn't be that surprising. He is an extreme outlier.
     
  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So, it's the right thing to do, and the example is Tom Brady..and the results speak for themselves..

    Don't strap your team financially if you wanna play with a good team around you, makes sense to me..your the leader, set the example.

    We should be ok, we're talking 12 mill a year probably.

    And like I said, I actually think Ryan has that type of character, so hunch tells me he'll fall into that line of thinking..
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yup...deep down, if the qb is smart, he will do the right thing..I think Ryan is conscious of his surroundings.
     
  12. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    That would put him about 10th in the league, in the Flacco/Stafford range. Brady's hit is also in that area, though as mentioned his unselfishness is largely responsible for that. Philip Rivers is just above that at $16.7 million, in terms of his cap hit.
     
  13. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    How is it the right thing to do? We are talking about financial security that Tannehill can leave his family for generations to come.

    Why is Tannehill the only one held to this standard? Why aren't Branden Albert, Mike Wallace, and others expected to give away millions of dollars for the benefit of the Miami Dolphins?
     
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  14. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    If we re-sign him to an extension THIS offseason, give him no more the 14-16 million, he doesn't deserve a dollar more than that.
     
  15. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The issue with Brady, though, is that he has a team braintrust who cooperates with his effort and jettisons players whose contributions don't match their cap hits, and so he knows that his unselfishness in that regard isn't going to be undermined by his own team leadership. Will this be the case with the Dolphins and Mike Wallace?
     
  16. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    With so much unknown going forward Ryan really isn't in a position to make too good of a deal for the Dolphins...what if this is the only extension/big contract he ever gets a chance to sign? I wont blame him for trying to get all he can.
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    because he's the qb, rules are and expectations are different, comes with the territory..if another player on the team doesn't get it then all the more important he does...

    He touches the ball every play, he has a much bigger responsibility...he should do everything in his power to negotiate a team friendly deal....if he doesn't then his chances of success are diminished, and that won't get you job security now will it..

    It's about keeping your job as long as possible, longevity...an investment into yourself, what's better, go after the big bucks, strap your team, and maybe get killed or not have sufficient weapons or defense to support you, or make a little less, have a better chance of having a better team around you with greater cap flexibility and extend your career and security with your team..l

    Your the qb, the face of the franchise, your not doing this for personal achievement or early financial security, if you are then imo, it's the wrong approach to the position.
     
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    well they have had their peeps there for a long time, they can avoid the mike Wallace type mistakes, we have a new front office, so you might have to take the hit for another year, check out his production, then see what's going on with the contract in relation to the production.
     
  19. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Which imo is about where he ranks anyways
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Trying to get all he can is the worst approach at that position I can think of..if that's who he is, and I don't think he is, then failure is imminent.
     
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The question is, do you pay Tannehill for where he is now, or is he looking for money in line with where thinks he'll rank in a couple seasons.
     
  22. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Nobody in the Dolphins front office is nostradamus so you pay him for what he did up to date... Which is worth 14-16 million, nobody has a crystal ball and I dont want my favorite franchise to "Jay Cutler" themselves, that is the number 1 way to keep your franchise swimming in mediocrity, overpaying a QB because you think he will be a top 5 QB someday when he has never proved such..Dont believe me? Look no further then the Bears and where they are now as a franchise.
     
  23. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill is probably going to get paid at least as much as Andy Dalton. Dalton's stupid contract completely skewed everything.

    But Dwyane Wade doesn't play football.
     
  24. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    That can be done with performance incentives, as well.
     
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  25. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Slippery slope with those...team incentives is more like it.
     
  26. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    You guys realize Tom Brady's wife make more than him right? It's unrealistic to expect Ryan to take less than market value and that value is around the same as Dalton and Kaeps contract.

    The ONLY thing we can hope for in the contract is low guaranteed per year so we can cut bait if needed.
     
  27. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Ryan's agent, is that you?
     
  28. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    NBA players get a lot more endorsement money and they have longer careers. They actually could be better off financially by taking a lower salary. NFL players don't really have those opportunities.
     
  29. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Quarterbacks do.
     
  30. Just out of curiosity is there anything in the rules that would prevent ross from selling a player a million dollar propertyfor pennies?
     
  31. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Look up. There's a point.

    I'm saying you are wrong about there being even one notable player to take less money. It's most likely that you meant Tom Brady, but Tom Brady hasn't done that. He lowered his cap number, but that means more years in his contract and more guaranteed money. He's still getting paid among the best at his position. He just isn't doing it in the same harmful way that Peyton Manning did with the Colts.
     
  32. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tom Brady is a not an example for other Qbs, he has a wife that makes more money than anyone in the NFL makes. Ryan should get as much as he can unless he's stupid. Most NFL careers are short and he's risking his long term health. I don't know why people bring up Brady, he's not selfless he just literally has more money between him and his wife than he would ever make with a big contract so he doesn't care.
     
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  33. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    The most he should be looking for a year is 16 million with team incentives TOPS... Anything above that, he is just delusional.

    If he wants to bet on himself and get paid next offseason in hopes of getting a bigger contract, go ahead, IM ALL FOR IT! I rather do that then pay him this year because if we suck again next year and cut ties with Philbin, maybe the next HC doesn't feel RT17 will be a fit with him and might want to grab his own QB that fits his system next offseason.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    While that is true, much of the business is trying to predict where they will be. If you think Tannehill will be a top five player, you pay him that to keep him in Miami, or risk losing him If someone else offers him to five money, if another team sees him as that.
     
  35. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Well, he's not a top five QB right now. This is how you set franchises back YEARS! By paying a 25-30 TD per year guy a 40-45 TD per year contract and in two years we will be screaming at the roofs saying "WTF did we pay him this huge contract?!?!?" Bears are doing it with Jay Cutler, for years they been saying that he would be a top 5 and it has never happened. Just saying. Pay RT17 for what he HAS done, not what you THINK he will do, that is called being a smart GM. 16 million tops. Otherwise, let him prove it.
     
  36. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    1. Aaron Rodgers (99) =
    2. Tom Brady (97) =
    3a. Ben Roethlisberger (96) =
    3b. Andrew Luck (96) /\
    5a. Drew Brees (95) =
    5b. Tony Romo (95) =
    7. Russell Wilson (94) /\
    8. Peyton Manning (93) \/
    9. Joe Flacco (92) =
    10a. Matt Ryan (91) =
    10b. Philip Rivers (91) =
    12. Matthew Stafford (90) =
    13. Ryan Tannehill (89) /\
    14. Cam Newton (88) =
    15a. Colin Kaepernick (86) =
    15b. Nick Foles (86) /\
    17. Eli Manning (85) =
    18. Andy Dalton (84) =
    19. Teddy Bridgewater (83) /\
    20. Alex Smith (82) =
    21. Carson Palmer (81)\/
    22. Derek Carr (80) /\
    23a. Jay Cutler (79) \/
    23b. Robert Griffin III (79) =
    25. Zach Mettenberger (78) /\
    26. Sam Bradford (77) =
    27. Blake Bortles (76) /\
    28. Ryan Fitzpatrick (75) =
    29. Mike Glennon (73) =
    30. EJ Manuel (72) /\
    31a. Johnny Manziel (70) /\
    31b. Geno Smith (70)=

    Projected QB's starting for their teams next year, rank, my personal overall of them going into next season...
    = - Staying in area of spot
    /\ - Trending Up
    \/ - Trending Down

    Pay him right where he is, don't give him no top 5 contract.
     
  37. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Not to mention that Brady's wife is worth nearly 3 times as much. The vast majority of NFL players are the primary breadwinners in their households. Not many instances of the star QB worth over $100 million being the secondary income.
     
  38. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Not even close. IIRC the top 10 endorsement earners in the NFL combine for $55M, while the top 10 in the NBA combine for $155M. Peyton Manning is at the top, and only gets $12M per year in endorsements.
     
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  39. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think he's looking in neighborhood that Kapernick and Dalton in terms of a contract, I think they set the bar for guys like Tannehill. He's not Rodgers or Brees by any stretch but I think he's in the same conversation as Stafford, Dalton, Kap, etc. so 16 or something similar is probably about right.
     
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  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    However we wanna categorize it, just do the right thing with the best interest of the team and its cap structure...

    This whole get what you can mentality doesn't apply to qbs who know who they are and what's best for them and their team..

    You want long term success, then do the deal that is friendly..

    Nothing wrong with that.
     

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