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What The Playoffs Have Taught Me

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ExplosionsInDaSky, Jan 5, 2015.

  1. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Hello,
    Not a frequent thread starter, but more of a reader and I like to offer my own insight on things. However, like i'm sure a lot of you did this past weekend, I watched all the playoff games and I came away with some interesting conclusions, that are all clearly obvious at this point.

    Cardinals @ Carolina

    Injuries- If your best players are injured come playoff time, you are totally screwed, I don't care how good the coaching is. Arizona went into that game with a practice squad Quarterback and it showed. I think had Carson Palmer remained healthy, we wouldn't have even seen the Cardinals play until next weekend. Depth at key positions and injuries played the part in the Cardinals defeat Saturday.

    Ravens @ Steelers

    The game is won in the trenches in the playoffs. Whichever front line proves to be the dominant one (offensive or defensive) will more times than not determine the outcome of the game. Both teams did a great job getting pressure on the Quarterback throughout that game, but ultimately Baltimore's front line(s) (on both sides of the ball) came out as the more dominant.

    Bengals @ Colts

    You can not win in this league with mediocre Quarterback play. I know Andy Dalton doesn't deserve all the blame from yesterday, but he was lost without AJ Green (injuries). Cincy's O-line was dominated (trenches) all game as well, but more importantly Andy Dalton was exposed as nothing more than an average Quarterback yesterday. A top tier Quarterback (Rodgers, Luck, Brady) would have made things happen on offense with or without AJ Green.

    Lions @ Cowboys

    Playing conservative will get you killed! Detroit played not to lose towards the end of the game which ultimately led them to defeat. The fourth and one punt on the fifty yard line with 9-10 minutes remaining in the game proved costly for them. Dallas was gassed on defense and had just gotten away with a PI call. Detroit had them and would have won that game if they had converted that first down (which I think they would have).

    My point is that we have concerns in all of these areas on this team,

    We have been plagued by injuries,

    Ryan Tannehill has looked Andy Dalton like at times during some of our bigger games,

    we have major concerns on the offensive line and now our defensive line is in need of a re-tool,

    and last but not least Joe Philbin plays more conservative than a pope.

    With all that said, had we made the playoffs this year (with all those looming concerns) we would have been ousted in the same fashion that Arizona and Cincinnati were. I think it's safe to say that we have major areas of concern and if they are not fixed in the offseason we could be looking at mediocrity yet again in 2015.

    How far away are we from being a contending team? What has held us back? I thought for sure we would make the playoffs this year and we didn't.
     
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  2. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    Interesting points and you're pretty much spot on. After watching how other teams advance in the playoffs is definitely an eye opener on our glaring weaknesses.
     
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  3. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Yeah that is my big worry about Tannehill. He can play, but does he have the intangibles which don't appear on the stat sheet to win playoff games or lead a team back down by 10+ late in the 4th quarter against a top opponent?

    Dalton puts up great numbers, but the Bungles still haven't won a playoff game since 1990. And aside from their win over Denver, they rarely win big important primetime games.
     
  4. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Good post.

    You end comment about needing to fix various issues reminded me of a saying given as job advice, "Dress for the job you want to have". Converting that to football, if we want to be a winning playoff team we should know what teams who win playoff games look like and "dress" ourselves accordingly.
     
  5. Tannedank

    Tannedank Banned

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    Yea but Dalton sucks, and Tannehill doesn't.
     
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  6. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    Your most important players getting injured hurts your team - Should have been obvious

    Games won in the trenches - Agreed. Need a G & DT this off-season.

    Mediocre QB play - Agreed. Find me the plan where we upgrade Tannehill short of tanking a whole season and we can replace him. (I'm on board with getting competition in the draft though) IMO Tannehill on a lot of teams would go far.

    Conservative coaching - Agreed
     
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  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    its hickey time, his talent is all that matters now..lets see what the young GM is all about...we need talent.

    4 top positions..Guard..Back..Receiver..Safety..

    Cut and acquire..draft and free agency..
     
  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Agreed about the trenches.

    Tannehill is better than Dalton. He surpassed Dalton this year and is still improving while Dalton is probably at his ceiling.

    Coaching - I don't agree that it's conservatism that's his problem. I think there are very questionable decisions mostly in terms of whom to keep/get rid of and whom to play and where. The in-game decisions are a mixed bag, some conservative, some not. That part of our coaching I see as pretty typical for the NFL. Not an advantage for us but probably not a big liability.
     
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  9. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    No, he doesn't. Dalton might not have great crunchtime numbers but he doesn't suck. And what has Tannehill done to have us be certain he's a better QB than Dalton? And keep in mind I'm a Tannehill supporter myself.
     
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  10. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Depressing to watch some of these teams, see how lousy they played and then have to realize that they were all a hell of a lot better than our Dolphins this year, except for maybe the Panthers, who won because they got to play a 4th string QB.
     
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  11. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It seems to be a thing with this fan base to latch on to something that isn't the problem while ignoring the actual problem.

    They hate the coaching, but harp on time outs instead of really exploring why Turner didn't play...or Jordan...or etc.

    Same with Ireland, they say he sucks for his drafting, but in reality, his eye for talent is pretty good, it was his team building/management that was horrible.
     
  12. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Other than more passing yards, rushing yards and TDs and fewer INTs?
     
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  13. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I agree with the majority of your points regarding the playoffs.

    The one thing I think you failed to mention was don't play the Cowboys in their stadium or the Ref's will screw you. I don't think it was the conservative play of the Lions which hurt the Lions as much as it was the change in the pass interference call against the Cowboys late in the game.

    The call had already been made on the field and the former referee in the FOX booth stated that it was an obvious pass interference penalty, when all of a sudden the call was overruled on the field. This was more than a minute after the flag was thrown on the field and after the head referee had informed the teams and the crowd that the penalty was against the Cowboys.

    There was absolutely no way that call would have been overturned if the game had been played in Detroit, because it was clearly pass interference.

    I usually take the view that one missed penalty in a game isn't the reason a team loses. I realize that the 10 yard punt after the penalty was overruled certainly put pressure on the Lions defense. Allowing the Cowboys offense to score a TD after the short punt and the Lions offense failing to score with over two minutes to play in the game caused the final result, but if the call had not been reversed, the Lions would have been in FG range and would have had a chance to score a TD and have a 10 point lead with only a couple of minutes left in the game.

    I have watched NFL football games for well over 50 years and that was one of the worst calls in a playoff game I have ever seen. The referee who overruled the play should be fired, IMO. I'm sure Jerry Jones will be happy to find him a job with the Cowboys to make up for any loss in pay. In fact after that call, I'm not sure he wasn't already an employee of the Cowboys.
     
  14. thisperishedmin

    thisperishedmin Well-Known Member

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    I didn't think it was pass interference at all, personally. There was back and forth between both. It probably SHOULD have been defensive holding or illegal contact, and offensive PI or something, offsetting penalties, and a replay of down.

    Besides, Mike Perreira or whatever ALWAYS agrees with the call on the field even when its bull**** in the past. His fellating of the league means nothing to me and never really has.

    /salty
     
  15. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    And that's with a worse oline and lesser wrs
     
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  16. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That was definitely PI. If the defender doesn't get his head around and pushes the receiver it's always going against the defender even if the receiver also puts a hand on the defender. And there was a hold before that where the receiver's shirt was seen pulled away from the body. That was minor in the old days but today that's an automatic. That being said I wouldn't call it one of the worst calls b/c there have been so many bad calls, but it was clearly a bad call.
     
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  17. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The Dolphins had the third-most 4th down attempts in the league this year, and the two teams with more attempts were those many people think will be in the Super Bowl (Green Bay and New England):

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/position/defense/seasontype/2

    So if you consider 4th down attempts to represent "aggression" (as opposed to conservativism), and you agree that a coach should be only as aggressive as the talent of his team dictates (teams with poorer talent should be more conservative than those with better talent), I'd say Joe Philbin was more aggressive in that regard than any other coach in the league.
     
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  18. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    In college or high school that may not have been pass interference, but in the NFL that is called 100% of the time.

    The defensive back never turned around to make a play on the ball. The receiver saw the ball and tried to get back and make a play on the ball.

    Even Troy Aikman, a diehard Cowboys fan admitted that it was clearly PI. As far as Perreira always agreeing with the call on the field. He called it PI when they asked him before the call was reversed and he continued to say it was PI after the call was reversed.

    As a Dolphin fan, I really don't care who wins or loses any of these playoff games. So I certainly have no vested interest in the Lions getting that call, but if I was a Lions fan or a player or coach of the Lions, I would definitely think the ref that had that play reversed is a paid member of the Cowboys.

    As I stated earlier, there is no way that call would have been reversed if the game had been played in Detroit.
     
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  19. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    more impressive that the Ravens played so tough without their star defensive player.
     
  20. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Yes he does suck. Not sure how many more games he's going to have to choke in for more people to realize it.
     
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  21. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    I don't think Joe is necessarily too conservative on 4th downs, he's taken quite a bit over the years. Where he's not aggressive is the tight game situations and also the type of plays called. Would Joe go for it on 4th with a lead in the 4th quarter to put a team away? Also, does he call for (or allow) aggressive plays in tight games? For example, the "queasy" situation, or how we would always seem to go in a turtle shell when we got in FG range. Or for example, if it's 3rd and short and especially if you are going to go for it on 4th, do we ever take a shot downfield on 3rd when the D is expecting a run? That is the type of playing conservative that I think kills us. Sometime you going for it on 4th is just desperation so I don't think just attempts can qualify as aggressiveness alone.
     
  22. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    You mentioned quarterback play in your post, and the team is just now getting the minimum level of it necessary to be a likely contender. Also, the team had only two Pro Bowl players, and the teams in the playoffs this year averaged over four (meaning that about half of those teams had even more than four). Teams that didn't make the playoffs averaged about one and a half.

    So, in my opinion it's obvious that unless Ryan Tannehill continues to improve a great deal (which is possible), the team will need to surround him with talent that's more like that of the teams in the playoffs this year. It's going to take one or the other to make this team significantly more competitive than it was this year.
     
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  23. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    1) I disagree with that....Tanny has had a couple of bad games, but he's actually played quite consistently at a higher level than in his past...

    2) Couldn't agree more that the OL and DL are a mess in Miami...how they are handled in the offseason can make a difference for us....or not...

    3) As further evidence of injuries playing a big part, the Panthers, on the other side of that equation are pretty healthy and their play has dramatically improved as those guys have come back...

    4) after 3 seasons of watching Philbin on game day, is that conservatism or just plain incompetence ?? I'm not sure...

    5) While getting into the playoffs is the goal of every team, even if they end up being ousted in the first round it has to be considered a plus in the grand scheme of things.... We've spent the last two late December/early January lamenting the fact that we controlled our own destiny (towards that goal of making the P/Os) and failed...miserably. That is on the coaching staff, not on the injuries, bickering players, or general talent acquisition...

    It was pretty obvious to most every person with some NFL savvy (media, ex-coaches, ex-GMs, etc) or most any fan following the Fins that moving on from Philbin was likely the right thing to do... Ross decided differently... Means we're likely to be wondering who the new coach/GM will be come this time next season...
     
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  24. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Lions-Cowboys game was another lesson that mediocre (and worse) QB play causes losses. The Lions lost their run-pass balance after taking the lead and Stafford was terrible.

    As for the call, I have seen worse calls go against the Dolphins multiple times. Think of the Gene Steratore game. Think of the game at New England last year. I also see the late flag throw/late flag pickup multiple times a year, usually in games involving the Patriots.

    The defender held, the TE put his hand on the defender's facemask and actually shifted his helmet, the defender swiped the TE's arm away, then a terribly thrown ball hit the defender in the back.

    I think a no call is the next best thing to offsetting penalties there. The flag throw/pickup is what makes it look bad. The play was a dog's breakfast from an offensive point of view. People complaining about Dez Bryant without his helmet have more of a beef, IMO.

    Still, I say that anybody in the league should be allowed to do what Tom Brady is allowed to do, and he swears in officials' faces frequently, though he tends to be wearing his helmet.
     
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  25. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    The reason the flag was picked up is because another ref stated he didn't think it was PI, but was face guarding, which is also a penalty. The head referee decided to call nothing on the play and just picked up the flag and called it fourth down.

    There were two referees who saw penalties against the Cowboys on the play, one saw face guarding and another saw PI. Both of those are penalties in the NFL and how the head referee decided to call neither of these penalties is beyond me.

    Of course prior to the ball even being thrown, the Cowboys defensive back was shown holding the Lions receiver.

    So it appears if you play in Dallas, the Cowboys can commit three fouls to the same player on one play and still not have a penalty called against them. Unbelievable.
     
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  26. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    The stat you're quoting is defensive fourth downs. On offense, we were still third but that was behind Chicago and Detroit. That's also very situational. Speculation: Our fourth down attempts are mostly in the fourth quarter trying to keep the drive alive to score, not second or third quarter trying to get 7 instead of 3. In that case it's forced aggression. We only converted 36.8% of them. The bottom of that list are some good teams. They usually score well enough to not have to go for it.
     
  27. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Face guarding is a penalty in the NCAA but is not a penalty in the NFL.
     
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  28. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's what I learned:

    Two teams that shouldn't have had home-field advantage (Carolina & Indy) earned that benefit through weak divisions.

    Denver is going to kill Indy. The Colts' defense isn't Play-off caliber, nor is their running game. That team is riding Andrew Luck the way Miami did Dan Marino. Without Luck, that team is not in the Play-offs.

    The Bengals are officially nothing without AJ Green. He's what makes Andy Dalton and that offense look legitimate.

    The Bengals defense badly needs someone who can rush the passer (this is an opportunity to market Wake to someone for a relatively good pick!!!).

    Somebody related to Kevin Coyle is running the Lions' offense. Stafford has regressed as a passer. I don't know how that many good players consistently underachieve.

    The Cowboys are good enough to win the Super Bowl. Not sure they will, but they could do it: running game, accurate QB, great WRs, decent defense.
     
  29. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    I`m not saying, by no stretch of the imagination, that I`d rather have Dalton then Tannehill . I personally don't think Dalton is as bad as some QB`s I`ve seen. He shows signs of being a good QB at times buy way too inconsistent. I also think Tannehill is the QB we hoped for going forward.
     
  30. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Honestly...I think Dalton and Tannehill are in the same class of quarterbacks at the moment. They're not elite guys, but they are legitimate starters in this league.
     
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  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right...even teams with "elite" QBs want/need pro bowl players around them. Here in Dolphin-land, some people act like saying we need pro bowlers is somehow a knock on Tannehill. We don't need pro bowlers because Tannehill isn't good enough, but because that's how you build a dominant franchise.
     
  32. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Aside from Marino and Luck, I'm not sure how many QBs in the NFL were expected to carry their teams so early in their career.

    Most guys seem to have become "elite passers" after a few early seasons went by (Peyton, Brady, Brees, etc.).

    It seems like most QBs are asked to become game-managers first: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, etc.

    It's not until down the road that they are tasked with running the show.

    Ryan Tannehill's problem is that he's never had a great running game to rely on the way that most other successful QBs have.

    I think Miami needs to worry about themselves not being able to run the ball more effectively. They need to be a more physical team. If the demands on Tannehill continue to rise the team is risking him going to the way of other failed QBs.
     
  33. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Well, technically RTH put up better numbers than Dalton even though Dalton had a better run game, one of the best WR's in the game and an OL that ranked 25 spots higher in pass blocking. I know you're not bagging on RTH but Dalton has a much better supporting cast.
     
  34. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not to mention Eifert, even if he was hurt.
     
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  35. NolePhin15

    NolePhin15 Well-Known Member

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    4045 yards > 3398 yards
    66.4% > 64.2%
    27 TD's > 19 TD's
    12 INT's > 17 INT's
    92.8 QB rating > 83.5 QB rating

    Tannehill > Dalton
     
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  36. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    Tannehill looked a lot better this season then Dalton
     
  37. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    Brady won his first year so
     
  38. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lots of QBs have won early. However, aside from Marino and Luck I can't think of many that did it with their being able to operate as a pure pocket passer.

    Brady won early in the same way that a lot of young QBs win early--by managing a balanced offense that is supported by a good defense.

    What Brady did has been done many times. Roethlisberger did it. Wilson did it. Flacco and Ryan both won a lot of games that same way.

    Neither Peyton Manning nor Drew Brees nor Aaron Rodgers came into the NFL being what they are today. That's the point. The majority of successful QBs go through a period within the first few years of their career in which they need the support of a good running game and a high-quality defense.

    How many QBs can say they were successful early in their career by throwing the ball around like crazy?

    Marino and Luck are on a very short list in that regard.

    Marino had his best statistical year in 1984. We all know that Marino carried the Dolphins on his back for a large part of his career. Luck appears to be doing the same for Indy right now. Not to the same level, but he's carrying that team for sure.
     
  39. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    And those numbers don't account for the first few games when a QB should still be adjusting to a new system. Tannehill's number averages were much lower over those first three games than they were the rest of the season. They're basically an anomaly and not representative of the QB Tannehill was for most of the year. If you're scouting Tannehill and you want to project what you have going forward then you throw those first three games out. If you project out a full season's totals off of the averages after those three games you get the following:

    396 comp
    574 att
    4,210 yards
    69% comp %
    7.33 YPA
    28 TDs
    12 INTs
    97.7 rating

    That rating would have ranked 5th in the league amongst QBs who attempted at least 100 passes. And his comp % would be 3rd best.
     
  40. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Lol you keep using these numbers as if RT17 really had em this year. Those weren't his numbers this year man. That "what if" game you like to play is horrible and your only lying to yourself.
     

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