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Brian Billick's Toxic Differential list and where the Dolphins rank

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by RickyNeverInhaled, Nov 2, 2014.

  1. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...watch-out-for-bills-texans-in-the-second-half

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2014/

    I just saw Billick talk about this on one of the playbook episodes on NFL network. They showed the top 6 teams and the bottom five teams. The dolphins weren't on either of those lists so i dug further and found the source of the info in the included link. For anyone too lazy to click on the link here is my summary of it.

    Basically the toxic differential list keeps track of the differentials for turnovers and the differentials for explosive plays and that number is added together. An explosive play is defined as a play with 20+ yards. Billick explains what we've always heard that if you are plus 2 on turnovers you have an 80% chance of winning that game. If you are plus 2 on explosive plays that you also have an 80% chance of winning that game. If you are plus 2 in both categories in a game, you have a 95% chance of winning that game. He also says that out of the 12 playoff teams that 10 of them will be the top 10 teams in the toxic differential list.

    I have decided to update this list based on the 2nd link I just added which credits Billick for coming up with the toxic differential list, but it also defines explosive plays differently. According to that 2nd link an explosive play is a passing play of 25 or more yards and a running play of 10 or more yards. The 1st link has not been updated yet, but after seeing all the rankings of the Dolphins on offense and defense showing that we are a top 10 team, in some cases we are a top 5 team in the league based on team stats, I have decided that the 2nd link is more accurate because it currently has the Dolphins ranked as the 4th best team in the NFL according to the toxic differential.

    Top 10 teams
    Seahawks 54
    Broncos 37
    Packers 28
    Ravens 26
    Lions 21
    49ers 19
    Texans 12
    Redskins 12
    Dolphins 9
    Browns 8

    Bottom 5 teams

    Jaguars -22
    Titans -25
    Chiefs -28
    Raiders -40
    Giants -42

    AFC East

    Dolphins 9
    Bills 4
    Jets 4
    Pats 1


    If you want anymore details click on the 2nd link, it updates itself just about instantly. After games are played i click on it and already see the updates. We are in good company in the top 10 of this list.

    The Dolphins have been in the top 5 for most of the season but the way we've been playing lately has shown up on this list, however we are still in the top 10. #9 to be exact. That isn't saying much if you look at numbers 7 through 10 on this list with teams like the Texans, Redskins, us, and the Browns. I am surprised to see the Pats as the worst team in the AFC East, they have +11 turnovers which is tied for 2nd place in that category but their big play differential is killing them with -10, hopefully the Chargers can take advantage of that next week. The Dolphins play the Ravens who have taken ownership of the 4th best team on this list, that #4 rank is where the Dolphins have been for the majority of the season until we started dropping down the list in the past couple of weeks.

    Dolphins +3 T/O diff +6 BP diff +9 toxic differential
    Ravens +3 T/O diff +23 BP diff +26 toxic differential
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2014
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I also read the the Dolphins are the worst team in the league in scoring outside the red zone..

    Doesn't matter though, just come out like crazed dogs and beat the chargers..
     
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  3. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a big Billick fan but I do see how that stat can be useful. With regards to Miami I think you have to factor in the their implementation of a new system. I would guess that you can look at what D has provided and expect roughly similar production going forward, but the O is much more of a work in progress. We not only have one fewer game than some teams, but the offense is still finding itself. The run game took a bit to reach its level and didn't have many explosive plays until the last three weeks. The pass O, as usually happens, will take longer. Arians says that it takes a QB about 8 games to get comfortable in a new system and RT hasn't even reached 8 games yet. I think it's reasonable to expect fewer TOs and more explosive plays from a more comfortable QB.
     
  4. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Right on! Anything can happen on any given Sunday. I can't sleep because I am too excited about this game! I feel sorry for Rivers because he is getting murdered by Wake and Co. inc.
     
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  5. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I wish I knew about this list a long time ago. I'm just interested to keep an eye on it and hopefully see progress. I don't want my team to be ranked 16th on any list, but progress and wins is all I care about. I agree with what you're saying about playing in a new system, which is why you won't ever see me voting for a new coach even if I don't like our coach. If It was a guarantee to stay in the same system while getting a new coach I might entertain that conversation, but I think it is more important to stay in the same system for 3-5 years before making any changes. We keep shooting ourselves in the foot and changing coaches and/or system every couple of years, it's no wonder we have been mediocre for a while.
     
  6. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    linking for future updates.
     
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  7. JShady

    JShady Miami Heat lover

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    He probably is still mad that Cleo Lemons beat his team in OT to get our only win.
     
  8. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    Well we have 2 big play weapons on offense but only one of them is a receiver and unfortunately he and the QB rarely connect on deep passes.
     
  9. Daben

    Daben Well-Known Member

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    Whilst achieving turnovers and explosive plays and limiting those against is undoubtedly likely to be associated with winning, do the numbers of these stats achieved previously predict that they will occur in the future? I.e. Does Buffalo's high differential actually predict that they will keep producing turnovers and explosive plays as the season progresses?

    There is a big difference between being a descriptor and being a predictor. The stats given for likelihood of winning in a single game when explosive plays and turnovers occur may show a strong association with winning, but this toxic differential ranking at face value is only describing what has already occurred. It may of course be the case that there is a relationship with past performance, particularly with explosive plays, but there might also be a luck factor regarding turnovers as well as the expected natural variance in all such occurrences. For the toxic differential to have power as a predictor, more data is required.
     
  10. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    This list will be more relevant by the end of the year. The pretenders will fall off and the up-and-coming teams will build up momentum. I anticipate the BIlls will start falling off with less weapons available. Miami might edge up a little - maybe up to 12 or 13?
     
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  11. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member


    That is the enigma that is a Philbin coached team, Deej...we just never know how the team is going to come outl...
     
  12. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    oh man. remember when we had the salad making trio of pepper, lemon and sage as our qbs? we've come so far
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    im confident about the defense, they have earned my trust, and my hope lyes in seeing this new offense curve at mid season..my wish is for lazor and Ryan to fully embrace what I believe gives us the best chance to win.
     
  14. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I totally agree that this list speaks to the relationship with past performances and shouldn't be used to predict anything. It would be interesting to use this to pick the outcome of games and see if one could pick a high percentage of wins based on these past performances. The reality is that anything can happen on any given Sunday. There's no doubt that those who are high on this list are having a good season and those who are low on this list are having a bad season with very few exceptions. Billick's statements about the winning percentage only applies to each games stats with turnovers and explosive plays and have nothing to do with this list based on past performances and his comment about the top 10 in this list will be in the playoffs only speaks about this list based on past performances right before the post season starts. It makes perfect sense to me and I think it will be proven to be true this year as well. It's definitely worth keeping an eye on and I hope to see the Dolphins move up this list or be one of the 2 teams that makes the playoffs that isn't on this list right before the post season.
     
  15. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    the reason these are important stats is because if you win them both in a game it usually translates to about an extra 10 points in your favor. most teams will win if spotted 10 points per game
     
  16. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I think historically TO production (both offensively and defensively) tends to be pretty consistent for the year outside of some big switch (like new QB or in our case adapting to a new offensive system). TOs tend to fluctuate year to year so their not generally predictive for next season, but tend to be predictive for the current year.
     
  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Exactly. These may be good things to look at as to why a team won or didn't after the game, but you can't use them to say who's going to win more the rest of the season. Its just too unpredictable and fluid.

    Look at our game against Buffalo. Our special teams ratings for the year tanked because of a dropped punt and a few missed tackles on the KO TD by Spiller. Most of the time, those things don't happen, so you can't use them to predict what will go on down the line, for either team.
     
  18. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    You can control your own turnovers though. I may be wrong but I would imagine TO differential pretty closely tracks a teams ability to limit its own turnovers
     
  19. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone know how many explosive plays we had today? I know we were +4 on turnovers, but I would like to know where I can get these stats that Billick comes up with so I don't have to wait for him to post them every week.
     
  20. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    I think we had 5-6 plays of 20+ yards today.
     
  21. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    That sounds about right but now the question is how many explosive plays did we give away. I'm leaning toward none but the Chargers could have squeaked out one or two before punting. I will check NFL.com to see if they give these kind of stats, I don't know where else to look.
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And +4 turnover differential.
     
  23. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    I just want to be in the toxic playoff discussion when it's all said and done.
    That's just me
     
  24. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    A quick look at the play-by-play, I saw 6 Miami plays for 20+ yards and zero Chargers play of 20+ yards, longest being an 18 yard gain.

    So,

    +4 TO differential
    +6 big play differential.
     
  25. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Hope you're right, that should be a huge jump, let's just hope we keep improving, being in the top 10 in the toxic differential would give me a lot of peace of mind, I am sold on the belief that this translates to wins and playoffs!
     
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  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I hate when people make excuses for their team BUT I'm going to do that myself right now. The Dolphins that you see on the field in November is not the team that started this season, so those statistics just aren't relevant. In the past 2 weeks, for example, we are at +18 (8 turnovers, 10 +20 yard plays) so our slow start is heavily weighing us down. We are much better than the "statistics" show because our offense has come such a long way in 8 weeks.
     
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  27. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    True, but we can say that about a lot of teams, and the opposite can be said of some teams as well. It will all average out and by the end of the season I think it will be an accurate description of the good, mediocre and bad teams. If I looked at this without knowing anyone's record I could be pretty accurate on who has a winning record and who doesn't. Keep in mind that not everyone has played the same amount of games. Our recent success before this week put us from below average to average. After this week we are separating ourselves and placing ourselves into the better half of this league. I totally agree that the we are much better than the "statistics" show, not just because of our slow start and learning a new offense but also we have played one less game then some of the teams at the top of this list and this week proves that a lot can happen in one week. I can't wait to update this list, I also can't wait til everyone has had their bye week and I am optimistic that we will continue to get better in these stats. Our defense has been good all year, now our offense is clicking! That alone, will shoot us up this list quickly if we keep it up!
     
  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I completely agree. By week 17 it will all balance out....I was just letting everyone know that the team we saw TODAY wasn't the #17 team overall. If we just go by the last 2-3 weeks alone, then we are way out in front of the rest of the league. And that's something to be excited about.
     
  29. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2014/
    I was looking for a website that showed stats for plays of 20+ yards for and against each NFL and I came across this website which credits Brian Billick for creating it but it is diferent than the one I got from Billick on NFL.com. This one defines explosive plays as passing plays of 25+ yards and running plays of 10+ yards for and against each team. I'm not sure how often this gets updated but I think it has obviously included the game we just played because we are 4th on this list!
    So now I am not sure if I am going to use this website to update the data after every team has played each week or wait for Billick to come out with his list on NFL.com which i provided in the original post that was posted on NFL.com Wednesday. Let me know what you prefer.
     
  30. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    What a difference one game makes...season stats so far:

    Miami #9 in the NFL in scoring offense (26.4 ppg)...#3 in the NFL in scoring defense (18.9 ppg)

    #4 in 1st down differential (earned 178 1st downs, allowed 143)...#1 in net turnover points (55 points, #2 is at 39 points)...#7 in turnover differential

    #3 in offense efficiency ratio...#3 in team efficiency ratio...#4 in yards per game differential...#4 in scoring differential...#9 in points per game

    In the grand scheme of things what does that all mean? I have no clue, but it sure sounds like a top 10 team to me.
     
  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Fap away then...

    After the Chargers game, we're #4 in toxic differential.
     
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  32. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    After half the season, I don't know how you could look at that list and not give the team respect. Those aren't fluke wins.
     
  33. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I agree that absolutely sounds like a top 10 team. And there's reason to believe we haven't peaked yet. You can see the upward trend so easily. And offensively it is all ahead of schedule. You couldn't reasonably expect any QB to be comfortable in a new system before the first 8 games, but RT has had several good games already and we just reached game #8. And I'm a big believer in the importance of a playmaking S to a defense. I saw a defensive uptick since Jones returned. I think Misi can provide another smaller uptick if he can stay healthy.
     
  34. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    This is truly remarkable. I will tell you what it means to me as a fan. It means I fear no team this season.
     
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  35. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's how I feel. That doesn't mean we'll be undefeated, but it does mean that I don't see any team out there that we can't play with. I don't like to play the "this is a win, this is a loss" projection game, but I can say that I wouldn't be surprised if this team beats anybody on the schedule. I'm not among those who are already calling Den and NE losses. I think we are playing as well or better than them and that we match-up well. In fact, the game that I'm most worried about is Buffalo. I see that as a bad match-up. We have to be a significantly improved team to better our earlier performance against them. We are clearly an improved team, but the question is have we improved enough? I think their interior DL has a talent advantage over our interior OL. That means we probably have to compensate by being better on the edges. That will take smart game-planning and play-making. We're capable, but a tough match-up is a tough match-up.
     
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  36. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I share the same concerns about the Buffalo game but i think Lazor is smart enough to call some plays to get Tannehill moving out of the pocket and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tannehill escape the pressure and either throw on the run or keep running.
     
  37. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    FYI to everyone interested in this thread, I just updated the original post based on a 2nd link that I added. I am waiting on the 1st link to be updated which should happen Wednesday afternoon.
     
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  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I want him to make those DTs run sideline to sideline. They can of course, but it wears them out and the combination of fatigue and indecision makes them less stout in the middle. And that middle run is still a staple of our offense. Lazor has to make those guys in the middle move.
     
  39. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

  40. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Ok Mr PhinFan1968, you have some explaining to do. I just read a bunch of jibberish about the Jaguars and saw the Dolphins as number 2 on some list with the 9th ranked Offense and 1st ranked Defense. Besides that I have no idea what all those numbers mean and how they have us as the 1st ranked Defense. I understand NFL.com's rankings but not this.
     

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