Is the QB position over valued?

We always talk about the importance of a franchise QB. It's generally believed that without a franchise QB, your team will never have consistent success and it makes winning championships that much harder. With modern rules in place, is the importance of the QB over valued? I've always sided with the Franchise QB argument. Without one, offenses will be inconsistent year-to-year and it will mess with win totals in the passing era of the NFL. And you need that clutch ability to preform in big games, especially games during the playoffs when you're likely to play better than average defenses...

But this Tampa Bay v. Atlanta massacre got me thinking about Matt Ryan and Josh McCown. Is QB talent overrated? Not unimportant, but overrated. Two points...



1. Superbowl winners of the last 10 years... (Starting w/2004 because of rule changes regarding defensive play/conduct began in 2004 and have evolved steadily every season)

2004: New England (Brady)
2005: Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger)
2006: Indianapolis (P. Manning)
2007: New York (E. Manning)
2008: Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger)
2009: New Orleans (Brees)
2010: Green Bay (Rodgers)
2011: New York (E. Manning)
2012: Baltimore (Flacco)
2013: Seattle (Wilson)

- Of these 10 teams, only 2 QB's have won multiple championships. Eli and Big Ben. Neither of which are elite. Both of whom had their struggles w/inconsistency. Both teams struggle to make the playoffs every year outside of their SB seasons. Of Course, Big Ben won his first SB with the worst QB performance in SB history. As far as inconsistency goes, add Flacco to the list.

- The only elite QB's who've won SB's in the last decade are Peyton, Brees, and Rodgers. I don't consider the 2004 Tom Brady elite, although he has elevated himself since then. And I'll be using him as an example later. Interesting to note, Peyton Manning's playoff run in 2006 was TERRIBLE. Peyton totaled 3 TD's to 7 INTs. His QB rating for four post season games was 70.5. His best game that year was the Superbowl w/81.8. He completed less than 60% of his passes in 2/4 games. Only Aaron Rodgers (109.8 QBR) and Drew Brees (117 QBR) played like elite QB's in both the regular and post season.

- The jury is out on Russell Wilson and where he fits in. He's a young QB who has experienced ups and downs. Certainly though, I think his arrow is point up for two reasons. 1 Lack of weapons in his first two seasons and 2. He's preformed in big games. He's Tom Brady circa 2001-2005, IMO.

- Most QB's on this list who've won SB's did so before breaking the bank. Peyton Manning is the exception. Peyton and Brady have each played in two other SB's for which they lost w/big contracts. Eli's contract in 2011 was a 100 million dollar deal, but it was mostly back loaded. His 2011 number was around 11 million. He wasn't cheap, but the salary wasn't high enough to call him a big money QB in that specific year.




2. Bad QB's who have had great success with powerhouse offenses but failed miserably otherwise

1. Matt Cassel
2. Josh McCown
3. Matt Flynn
4. Matt Schaub
5. Eli Manning

Josh McCown through 13 TD's - 1 INTs in 8 appearances and 5 starts. Even Bears fans were questioning whether or not to try and sign him. Especially w/Cutler's inconsistency, injuries, and future contract price tag. Obviously, it's looking disastrous in Tampa. McCown has NEVER thrown more TD's than INT's prior to 2013. He rode a good oline and an incredible trio of Marshall, Jeffery, and Forte all the way to Tampa and got himself a decent contract for someone of his age/ability.

Then you have other guys w/up and down seasons. Look at Matt Ryan. W/out his duo of WR's he throws 26 TD's to 22 INT's. Pretty crappy year in 2013. W/his weapons, he's looking like he has in the past. A very good QB who is leading a team to a playoff appearance... It's early and all, but you get my point.

Tom Brady is another example of a great QB with yo-yo stats. 2001-2006: Tom was a game manager. Don't make mistakes first and foremost and worry about everything else later. He also had some ****ty weapons. He clearly was better than his numbers suggested as we would find out. 2007-2012: Brady was arguably the best QB in the league with various combinations of playmakers such as, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez. 2013-2014: Brady is looking like his younger self. Struggling to produce offense surrounded by average or below receivers.

I'm sure we could come up with more names and examples, but it's late and I'm lazy and tired. You get the point, I think.





Is the QB talent overrated? Again, overrated doesn't equal unimportant. Just overrated? Is a team better off finding a "solid, good" QB for the right price and spending the extra cap space on his weapons? WRs, TEs, RBs, Oline? Does it all kind of equal out in the end? Thoughts?

For me it's like... Brady w/out weapons is human. McCown with weapons is good. Obviously, I'd want an elite QB > Above average QB if all things were equal. But with QB contracts exploding, I can't help but wonder if the days of finding a Brad Johnson aren't coming back. What's old is new again, type of thing.

 

When you say Arm talent, what are you referring too? Stafford has arm talent IMO. Just really bad footwork. Stafford, when he's mechanically sound is pretty awesome, IMO. If he gets his feet right and stops w/that sidearm BS, he could be a top 5 QB, IMO.