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Looking for Trade Help

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football' started by Tone_E, Aug 19, 2014.

  1. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've been in my league for three years now and haven't completed one trade that just involved players....just picks. It is hard for me to gauge value for some reason and was wondering if you guys could help.

    14 Team Keeper League.
    I finished third last year so I am picking 12, 17, and 40 in a typical snake draft.

    KEY PLAYERS:

    C Kap
    Tannehill

    Shady McCoy
    Lamar Miller

    Julio Jones
    Randall Cobb
    Josh Gordon (damn you second hand smoke :shifty:)
    Keenan Allen


    My planned keepers are Shady, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobb. Jamall Charles is available for trade and I want to target him. Other players being kept on the team with Charles is Lacy and Gronk, so there is a WR deficiency there and given how deep I am, I want to trade a WR to try and get Charles to give me two top 5 RBs.

    Options that I am looking for criticism;

    1. Charles for Julio Jones straight up. Is this worth it? Charles has a knack for getting injured and Julio is young and already a top 5 option. But, I have Randall Cobb and Keenan Allen and expecting both to break out.

    2. Charles for Randall Cobb and my third round pick (40). Is this overpaying? I have a tendency to place a lot of stock on draft picks. Maybe a lower pick?

    What do you guys think?
     
  2. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would do Charles for jones much faster then Cobb and a third. Cobb and a 3 I'd be on the fence about leaning towards no. Cobb and a 5 or something is be cool with
     
  3. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I'd do either trade.
     
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  4. UCFinfan86

    UCFinfan86 Season Ticket Holder

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    Since everyone is keeping 3 players, a 3rd round pick is essentially a 6th round pick. I would do Cobb and 3rd for Charles.

    I would rather have Julio, who is a top 5 WR instead of Cobb and a 6th. In keeper/dynasty leagues is all about getting and keeping your 3 most dominant players. It's to bad you can't leverage Cobb and Allen into a better 3rd keeper, as they are both keeper worthy players.
     
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  5. 305

    305 Brawndo Club Member

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    Get off my lawn.
    This... and see if you can grab a later round pick in the trade to take a flyer on a player.
     
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  6. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I'd personally feel safer with Cobb than Julio, who is only a top 5 WR in theory, meaning- it operates under the big assumption he can stay healthy, when in fact he has one of the highest probabilities of re-injury in the league based on his specific injury history.

    Ultimately I'd go with your WR package deal suggestion.
     
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  7. 305

    305 Brawndo Club Member

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    Get off my lawn.
    lol youre crazy... want to show me the stat line that shows Cobb is a safer/better receiver than Julio? The 3rd is irrelevant to me considering its a keeper league.
     
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  8. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It also depends on your perspective. Most people think like you and would take Julio. Todd and I see it as an opportunity to sell high on jones and bail because there is a reinjury risk. He's injured his feet a few times already and missed significant time. Julio has world beater talent but injury risk and declining supporting cast could mean more double teams, fewer good targets (I.e times he's thrown to and the ball is catchable without getting killed) and he bails while getting Jamal Charles. Being real, I'd almost buy Cobb straight up over Julio. Cobb is a post hype sleeper with an adp a few rounds later then it should be and he's got 1200/10td potential IMO. No Jennings and James jones stealing targets and TDs anymore.
     
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  9. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Nah, I'll let you continue plodding along the path of ignorance. :wink2:
     
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  10. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Yup, it's the common lever-pulling mentality, you know- the kind that built Las Vegas. the hope of the big payout.
    It's funny that Julio can end a season on IR after a repeat injury but still maintain the ability to be sold high. Yeah, I'm with you- definitely sell him high now before it's potentially too late.
     
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  11. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It is a matter of preference but to me the safest way to play this would be something like jones and a late pick for Charles. Keep Charles shady and Cobb and then draft another wr early. You'll have a relatively safe and high target wr 2 with wr1 potential while having the two best PPR backs in the game
     
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  12. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I agree. With Charles, Shady, and Keenan Allen, I fail to see the need to implement a swing-for-the-fences mentality with the other WR spot when you can play it safer with Cobb and likely still kick *** with that foursome. And like you intimated, there's Atlanta's organically volatile offensive situation to be concerned with. No more Gonzalez, a questionable ground game, Roddy White nearing the end of his great play, and a defense that looks improved over the one that ranked 27th last year. Plus ToneE can get Josh Gordon back next year if he wants, no? Wouldn't you rather have him than Julio as a future keeper? Go after Charles and keep him, Shady, and Gordon.
     
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  13. UCFinfan86

    UCFinfan86 Season Ticket Holder

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    No Jennings and Jones stealing targets, but Nelson has emerged as the #1 WR and its not like they haven't replaced Jones/Jennings with 2nd round rookie Davante Adams, rookie Janis and Boykins is still there.

    For as much potential as Cobb has, he has 1 good year having 900 receiving yards and then was hurt most of last year.

    Julio was leading the league in receiving last year before he got hurt and with Roddy only getting older will be the clear cut #1 WR moving forward. You say that Cobb has 1200/12 potential, well Julio already did that in 2012 and last year was on pace for 1800 yards.

    I guess its just a matter of preference, but I see that no way Cobb is better. In a 3 player keeper league I want the absolute 3 best players I can possible keep and there is no one that can touch Julio, Charles, Shady.

    Julio is a better talent and has more proven production. The only argument that I can see being made for Cobb is that he is less of a health risk, but really how much less when he missed all of last year and is a smaller slot receiver who is also exposed to extra hits since he also returns kicks.

    Julio has the potential to end the season as the #1 fantasy WR in any given year and I don't see Cobb having that upside. And don't get me wrong, I love Cobb as a high end #2 WR and I have him on a few of my re-draft teams already, but hes not Julio.
     
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  14. UCFinfan86

    UCFinfan86 Season Ticket Holder

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    Is there any room for negotiation in Cobb + 3rd for Charles? Are you able to get a pick back? Maybe like a 7th or something (which is essentially a 10th and a good place to grab a nice flyer).
     
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  15. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    youre right Jones has that kind of potential. It's a matter of how much you believe he can stay on the field. To me having an injury in the NFL is almost like a rite of passage but with Jones it's starting a trend when it's repeat injuries to the same area all the time. The guy is walking around with screws in his foot still. Isn't it just a matter of time? He very easily could be a boom or bust player where he could lead the league in yards or be done after 4 games or whatever. Given his last two years it's probably the last chance to get this kind of value for Jones. It's also a keeper so Jones in a one year league is a different scenario. Jones may be fine for a year but with a keeper you're talking multiple years. Jones is a proven risk and with a keeper I'm looking for safer picks who are reliable. Try and minimize risk and that means getting rid of injury prone players. Even if Gordon were suspended, at least his body is still in fact to perform when he gets back. Can't say that if jones gets hurt again and his feet seem particularly susceptible to that. And you can't discount having Aaron Rodgers as your qb in cobbs case.
     
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  16. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks for all the discussions guys!

    Cobb and a 3rd got rejected. I am willing to part with Julio though for some of the reasons mentioned. Plus, WRs are easier to replace IMO. I am going to offer Julio Jones for Charles in a straight up and get back to you guys.
     
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  17. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rejected Charles for Julio straight up too. Not pursuing Charles any further. Will take a look at other top backs and try and grab one.
     
  18. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just heard back from the guy. The only way he'd move Charles is with a player and a 1st. That is ludicrous given the only player he'd accept in a trade is a keeper along with the 1st, or else it's pointless. He wants way too much.
     
  19. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Kinda figured he wouldn't trade Charles. Why would he when with Lacy and brink he has basically what you're trying to do except with an elite TE.... Lol. Never hurts to try though. I'd move on to another target...seed if he is willing to move Lacy for jones or see who has a Doug Martin and flip jones for Martin and maybe a late pick
     
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  20. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    what he said.

    Matt, can you imagine if we had this same keeper league discussion after Julio was drafted that revolved around the knowledge of screws in his feet, and then the opposition tells us "LOL you're crazy to be concerned about it"..... and then BAM, he snaps the screws 2 years later and spends 11 games on IR. That's how silly the "lol youre crazy" comment is. This has ALREADY happened once, and now the chances of re-injuring the foot [or suffering a new injury altogether like an achilles rupture] are likely higher than they were at the start of last season. But then again, I'm sure many fans argued that Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nick's fractured feet would be nothing to worry about, and they turned out fine, so what do we know. :shifty:
     
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  21. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Julio and a pick for Lacy would be a win in my book.
     
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  22. 305

    305 Brawndo Club Member

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    Get off my lawn.
    Would you all care to share the expert opinions that say there is a high likelyhood of Jones re fracturing his foot? Here are some actual doctors opinions...

    http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2013/1...roddy-white-injury-recovery-timetable-falcons

    http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14bramel_julio_jones_outlook

    The only argument that you could make is the marrow transplant is uncharted territory.
     
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  23. 305

    305 Brawndo Club Member

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    Get off my lawn.
    [video=youtube;s5Gj0gaGYJU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5Gj0gaGYJU[/video]
     
  24. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Ahhhh, so you're suggesting it's merely a coincidence that Julio spent last year on IR?... that it was somehow unrelated to his prior foot injury? :unsure: It's like you're trying to argue away the fact Julio has ALREADY re-injured his foot just 2 years removed from the first injury, so you're not even in apples to apples here with your argument.

    As far as the doctors' quotes go:
    ..yet amidst this small sample size we have:

    • Ahmad Bradshaw fractured foot in 2011, re-injured in 2012, and hasn't been the same since.
    • Hakeem Nicks' fractured foot in 2010 at 22, re-fractured at the ripe age of 24, and subsequently became a shell of his former self.
    • Andre Brown's fractured foot in college, re-fractured the following year, then ruptured his achilles in that same foot the year after as a rookie..... followed by a fractured leg in 2012 that subsequently re-fractured in 2013.
    • Chris Ivory's fractured foot in 2011, re-fractured in 2012 at 24 years old.
    • Michael Crabtree's fractured foot in 2009, re-fractued in 2011, and then ruptured achilles in 2013.
    • Demaryius Thomas's fractured foot in 2010 and re-fractured in 2011.
    That's the small current list we have to go by. Not very encouraging overall and not supportive of Geir's suggestions that success rates are good and that it's expected for NFL skill players to get back to the same level as before, and it's not even applicable at this point for him to make accusations about what the long term affects are.

    Here are a few others off the top of my head with reoccurring foot injuries:

    • Darren McFadden's Lisfranc foot injury in 2011, injured the ankle on that foot in 2012, then re-injured the ankle in 2013. The #4 overall pick's career was over at 24 just one year removed from 1157 rushing yards, 507 receiving, and 10 TDs.
    • Jacoby Ford's Lisfranc injury in 2011, re-injured it in 2012, and had it flare up again this year in training camp. His promising career was over before it could begin.
    • Santonio Holmes' Lisfranc injury in in 2012, persistent foot issues in 2013. His career abruptly ended at 28 after looking like a stud the year prior.
    LMAO at this one.
    Ummm...Ahmad Bradshaw? Hakeem Nicks? Andre Brown? Chris Ivory? That's 4 right there who weren't the same again. That's not including Crabtree's two seasons ruined from re-fracturing it and then rupturing the achilles in the same foot, just as Andre Brown did. I'm guessing the achilles tendon can tighten during the rehabilitation of a fractured foot and thus become more susceptible to rupturing during extreme physical activity.

    Hell, let's look at Julio Jones' FULL football career the past 6 years:
    2008: sports hernia injury [requiring offseason surgery] in game 5, compounded by wrist & shoulder injuries in game 8. He had 4 TDs through his first 5 games and then zero the rest of the season. Probably would've put him on IR in the NFL.
    2009: Injured knee in game 2 which would've kept him out at least half the season in the NFL, if not landed him on IR. He was limited to 129 yards and 1 TD through 6 games during that span.
    2010: Broken hand in game 6 that required surgery and pins. He would've been sidelined for at least 4 weeks in the NFL, if not landed on IR, especially after re-injured the same knee as 2009.
    2011: missed 3 games from hamstring injury.
    2012: played 16 games but was hindered by an injured hand at one point.
    2013: 11 games on IR after re-injuring foot.

    That's plausibly 4 of 6 seasons that might've ended on IR if it were all in the NFL. Now, besides this lengthy and concerning injury history that has hindered half of his career, there's his physical, intense style of play that places a great deal of stress on his body and is what's led to most of his injuries in the first place, if not all of them. So you're telling me that even though his style of play has resulted in a plethora of injuries and re-injuries that he's suddenly gonna become injury resistant despite 6 years suggesting otherwise?
     
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  25. 305

    305 Brawndo Club Member

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    Get off my lawn.
    lol ok, Im not even going to waste my time with your argument of "all foot injuries are the same". Because yeah, every football player will recover and play the same under a good ol generic "knee" surgery... they're all the same. But well done writing 5 pages about nothing :confused2: I should have known better than to take the opinion of a physician than Todd.

    In the end, it was a pretty interesting white paper on ignoring my quest for a physicians viewpoint backing up your claim. Your sample size amusing as well listing the Giants magnificent offense. What was funny was that Andre Brown.. that leg injury.. fibula, just like your boy Cobb. Maybe I can start generalizing everything and blame non-productivity on that one. Or throw a Theismann comparison out there, why didnt he come back, lazy bastard haha

    On a side note, I have a feeling Nicks may laugh at you at the end of the end of this season. And your "McFadden had 1154 yards off the top of my head" argument was pretty funny.

    Anyways, I'm going to run along now and abandon debating like either one of us know the prognosis for the injury... I provided physicians opinions, you provided your own.. just make sure you trade me Julio for Cobb down the road.
     
  26. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Rightttt, the first 6 players I mentioned sustained the same injury as Julio, yet according to you I'm somehow suggesting "all foot injuries are the same". Kudos seƱor strawman, kudos. Your "physician" based his "opinion" on 12 NFL players undergoing this surgery over the past 8 years. I listed 6 of those players, with 4 of them who have yet to be the same since. That's 25% of the 12. Yup, no risk here. LOL

    nice diversion tactic, as well as an unsupported, lazy, stupid stab in the dark. Yeah sure, let's forget that Andre Brown fractured his foot, re-fractured it, and ruptured the achilles of that same foot BEFORE breaking the bone in that leg that you're referencing.
    Yup, definitely apples to apples with Cobb. :unsure:

    Until that happens, remind me how stellar Nicks was for fantasy owners in 2012 and 2013? LMAO. Contrary to your belief, Nicks bouncing back in 2014 would NOT make the disappointments of 2012 and '13 go away. :wacko:

    More strawman. How surprising. The players were off the top of my head, genius, not McFadden's stats. I can see you're one of those people who don't lose gracefully and thus resort to making up s***.

    I provided stats from the very small list of players with similar foot fractures, as well as Julio's lengthy injury-proned career the past 6 years. You provided supposition and drivel.
     
  27. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The more I think about it, the more I wonder if my first (12th) and Julio isn't too much for Charles. It will leave me with two top three RBs and Randall Cobb as keepers and opens up my entire draft.

    Or, I can target M. Ball, D. Martin, or D. Murray for Julio and keep my first.
     
  28. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would try the last paragraph first. The other offer IMO shouldn't be an option
     
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  29. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sent out offers for Ball, Murray, Martin, and Forte for Julio straight up. LOL. See what sticks.
     
  30. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Forte is golden in a 1 pt Ppr. Martin and Murray have upside and could be better then last year. Ball could be 1100 and 7-10 td but could be higher or lower then that depending on his ability to stay on the field on 3rd down.
     
  31. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I got Doug Martin. For some reason I have a bad feeling about Julio Jones, but am having remorse as well. Doug Martin is good with upside, but TB will suck and he will be facing a stacked box most of the times. Long term I think I'll win the trade though. I hope.

    EDIT: We're 0.5 PPR.
     

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