Andy Dalton signs 6 year, 115 million dollar deal

Bengals are going to Bengal. Lot of head-scratching locally about this deal.

 

To be honest I wonder if we're entering a phase in the NFL's history where teams that churn and go with cheaper options at quarterback won't be better off, especially as we get more and more of the college style read-option stuff in the NFL.

The Seahawks may have hit on a lottery ticket with Russell Wilson but it was still a cheaper quarterback that enabled them to put together an incredible team around him. The Eagles are working off the cheaper quarterback idea right now. The Cardinals went to the playoffs with a cheaper quarterback (Carson Palmer). Andrew Luck is still cheap, Colts been to the playoffs with him two years in a row. This whole time the San Francisco 49ers have been working off a cheap quarterback model with Alex Smith and then Colin Kaepernick, and 2014 will be their first year with Kaepernick being paid mighty sums. The Kansas City Chiefs have been competitive while working off the cheaper quarterback model. Until this off season the Bengals themselves were working off a cheap quarterback model.

The Ravens paid Joe Flacco and promptly took a big step back. The Falcons paid Matt Ryan and promptly took a huge step back. The Cowboys have had a tough time being competitive since paying Tony Romo. The Lions have yet to be competitive since giving Stafford his payday. The Bears have been pretty up-and-down in the Cutler era.

Not trying to demonstrate anything scientific or conclusive here but it would seem to make sense to me if teams that hand out large (admittedly "market") deals to middling quarterbacks end up being held back while teams that hand out those same large deals to quarterbacks who really ARE elite continue to roll forward and are joined by teams who are getting good quarterback play from cheap alternatives.

On that basis, Miami had better be wary of the concept of giving Ryan Tannehill $20 million per year in order to play like a middle-of-the-road quarterback.

 

I think as long as they're able to retain A.J. Green, they'll at least be competitive. Really the only step backward from the starting units they've taken is the departure of Michael Johnson, who had a down year last year, and replaced him with the in-house trio of Wallace Gilberry, Margus Hunt, and Will Clarke.

That and Andrew Whitworth has been on the PUP since their camp started, though I think he missed virtually all of camp last year as well and was ready for week 1.

 

I think it also has a lot to do with the QB position getting "easier" to play with all the changes in rule enforcement in the post 2005 NFL landscape. So not only are these teams you mention having success because they don't have to pay their young QBs a lot of money, but it's also a much easier transition from college to the NFL for QBs. It's no wonder we are seeing rookie or very young QBs doing great things almost every NFL season. The NFL talking heads still act like it's an amazing feet for these rookie QBs to perform at this level, but the truth is it's just getting easier for them because of the rules and the types of offenses teams are running.

Early after 2005 you saw the teams with the best QBs exploit these new rule changes while the teams stuck in neutral continued to try and plod along on running games and defense (see: what Bill Parcells did with the Dolphins). Now things might be getting to a point where NFL teams are onto the rules and they can exploit the ease of passing in this current NFL with younger, and cheaper QBs. While the expensive superstar QBs still earn their money, but the level they perform over the cheaper / younger options does not always overcome the gap in talent at other positions the teams with the superstar QBs have to deal with due to exorbitant contracts.

Agree that Miami will have a big decision to make with Ryan Tannehill. Personally I hope he has the kind of season that we as fans can be happy and feel justified to see him earn a big contract. But not so big that the rest of the team suffers horribly.

 

This is much worse than the Flacco deal, way too overinflate the market Mike Brown.

If Tanny looks sharp his first 5-6 games? Extend him early.

 

I think that's a fair point. It may be easier for these quarterbacks to establish themselves as a "middle of the road" guy at the position. The elite players at the position are still the elite players, and it pays to have them on your roster regardless of price tag, but it's possible that the biggest element in creating a middle of the road quarterback is just the team's commitment to that player despite his mediocrity.

 

Bengals GM thought process...

"..."

 

It basically comes down to two scenarios concerning Tannehill.

The first one is that the Dolphins continue to be a mediocre team with him at the QB position and this leads to the firing of Philbin. In that case the next HC will probably decide to draft his own QB of the future and that will mean the Dolphins will once again start over with a new and relatively inexpensive QB for the next four years at least.

The second scenario is that Tannehill will become the QB many on here think he can become and lead this team to the playoffs. In that case, when he signs his next contract with the Dolphins, he will certainly be looking to be paid 17-20 million dollars a year, which appears to be what the younger QB's in the league are receiving when they sign their second contract with the teams who drafted them originally.

The Dolphins have been a key player in free agency only because they have been able to remain so far under the salary cap. This has been largely due to the fact that they pay their starting QB far less than most of the other teams in the NFL. The top QB's in the league take up a big percentage of their teams salary cap and if Tannehill becomes one of the top QB's in the league, the Dolphins will have to pay him accordingly.

Personally I hope he does end up playing well enough to get a huge contract from the Dolphins. I would much rather see the Dolphins with one of the top QB's in the league and far less money to spend when it comes to free agency spending.

 

In this way I have a little more respect for what the Buccaneers are doing. They're definitely going the cheap route but they're using the money to build a great talent base around the position, and I guess they're just hoping they get lucky like the Seahawks did with Russell Wilson or the Eagles with Nick Foles.

 

I agree it could go one of two ways. It's hard to imagine the Dolphins extending Tannehill in a situation where they underperform and Philbin gets fired for it. I don't necessarily think they'll get rid of Tannehill either, but I think they'll try and keep him around as a cheap quarterback option in a new coaching philosophy, while they add someone young to compete with him for the right to be considered the franchise's future at the position.

On the other hand in any scenario where Philbin does well enough to remain on as the head coach, I believe Tannehill will be extended.

 

If we have another mediocre season, you could simply decline Tanny's 5th year option.

You wouldn't necessarily be giving up on him at that point. If he blows up under Harbaugh or Gus Malzahn, then you can still franchise him, or extend him. Will cost you more, certainly, but at least you're not guaranteeing $15 million for a 5th year your new coach might not even want

 

This is pretty much true. Two things the league has dictated:

1. You need elite QB play to win
2. Rookie salaries are artificially capped

Having an elite QB on his rookie contract is a goldmine. Wilson, Flacco, and Matt Ryan are good examples. IIRC, the Packers were at their best as a team when Rodgers was still on his rookie contract. You can even look at Tom Brady taking less than his market value as a big part of why the Patriots have had lasting success.

This is why I think teams should always be drafting QBs, even when they have an established one. If you can replace an elite QB with an elite QB on a rookie contract, that is a monster value-add.

The good news for the Dolphins is that they've done as good of a job with the salary cap as anyone in the league. If they do end up giving Tannehill ~$20MM/yr., they likely won't have to cut a lot of talent to do so. Ideally they're giving themselves some flexibility as well, so if they do extend Tannehill, they have some outs.

 

IMO, the Dolphins seem to be building their team with the idea they are going to have to pay Tannehill eventually. They haven't been spending all of their money.

 

I agree, and I think the natural follow-up to that, is whether thats the best strategy? Are they better off essentially saving for the future, or would they have been better off putting together a better team in the near-term?

 

I think it is more likely the GM looked at his QB and understood that he has led his team to the playoffs every year since he took over as their QB in 2011. Dalton may not yet be seen as a top five QB in the NFL, but he certainly has had far more success with the Bengals than the vast majority of QB's have had with their team the past three seasons.

It is ALL about winning and getting to the playoffs in the NFL and Dalton has certainly proved so far that he can do both these things in the NFL. Obviously he has to get his team past the first round of the playoffs if he expects to stick around and receive all the money he signed for in this contract. Perhaps the Bengals GM and front office just feel that Dalton will only get better over the next 5-6 years and he will be worth the money they appear willing to pay him.

 

So, what's AJ Green's cut?

 

It could mean we are stuck with Tanny for the next 3 years (the likely amount of guaranteed contract.) Of course there is always a chance new regime comes in next year and cleans house.

 

Next season, Miami's cap room takes a nose a dive. There's going to have to be a lot of cuts to make room. Which is why it's so important we keep carrying over cap space like we're this season.

 

He'd have to have a hell of a year to receive a contract like Dalton's..

 

Bengals fan I know is happy with the contract. And he's not necessarily a huge believer in Dalton. Seems like Bengals wouldn't have too hard a time cutting bait if Dalton underperforms.

 

I don't see Wallace, Ellerbe, or Wheeler being members of the Dolphins beyond this season. Cut those three after this coming season and the Dolphins will be in a much better position salary cap wise.

I like Wallace, but I just don't think he is worth the money he is being paid by the Dolphins. If he is cut or traded after the 2014 season, the cap hit on the Dolphins will not be as severe at it would have been if they cut or traded him after the 2013 season.

Ellerbe and Wheeler are just overpaid period and I just don't see either of them on the team in 2015. The Dolphins will take a much smaller hit on their salary cap space by cutting both these players after this season is completed.

The only players who the Dolphins have who will be free agents after this season and need to be resigned are Odrick and Clay, unless one or both of them want too much money. There really isn't any other player on their roster who is going to be a free agent which I would consider a must signing for the Dolphins.

Hopefully Matt Moore would be willing to sign a cap friendly number to remain the teams backup QB. If not, the Dolphins could always look elsewhere for a cheaper option in 2015.

Delmas is a question mark in regards to him possibly getting a long term deal after this season. Obviously it comes down to how well he plays this year on his one year contract.

The rest of the Dolphins 2015 free agents are not players who are going to command a lot of money on the free agent market, IMO.

 

Green is well paid now and I am sure he will be one of the top paid WR's in the NFL when he signs his new contract.

I'm not saying Dalton is worth that much money. In fact I don't think any QB in the NFL is worth that much money. Professional athletes in all sports are vastly overpaid when you compare their contribution to society, relative to individuals like teachers, first responders, migrant workers, and so many other occupations which provide far more to society than individuals who merely play a game for a living.

It is just the way it is and right now, even a slightly above average QB like Dalton can command huge salaries and get them.

 

Its too much IMO. I also thought 6 years was too long as I thought he was older than what he is (same age as me for goodness sake!)

 

With talk of the NFL now enforcing zero contact after 5 years the passing game might be even more wide open.

 

I wrote that in 2011 when most everyone but a few were claiming he sucked balls...

 

He still throws way too many INTs and has gotten worse each year in that regard.

 

Seriously, I hope Miami has the good sense not to offer Ryan Tannehill a 100 million dollar contract unless he's performing like Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, id rather head back into the draft and try again. Some of these teams are so desperate for above average QBs, they're throwing the future away.

 

You do have to wonder where things are going with the Qb position, I mean guys that have proven next to nothing like Romo and Dalton are getting paid elite Qb money because they are good but not great and it would be hard to find another "good" Qb, I guess? I mean what other position in the NFL pays elite money to "good" players? It does seem like the teams with 20 million dollar Qbs that aren't named Manning struggle to get anywhere and even the Broncos looked undermanned against Seattle. Dalton's contract is weird, I mean he still have serious question marks about him and he gets this kind of deal? Crazy.

 

Romo does not belong in the same conversation as Dalton or Flacco. He has the worst defense in the nfl and they consistently have blown any playoff opportunities for Dallas.

 

Youre right he doesn't belong in a conversation with two Qbs that consistently make the playoffs.

 

I didn't say he was great, just said That when coming out of college I projected him pretty well, which was way more than most thought....I think he's played pretty well, obviously I'm not the only one..would I give him that size contract?..... Idk, I would have to watch every rep to know all the variables that contributed positively or negatively to his play.

 

I think it really just shows the importance of drafting in general, but also the value of finding elite talent in the draft (which of course is very difficult). Rookie deals are a bargain for elite players...especially at the QB position. That said though, other positions you hit on in the draft could allow you to afford to pay a QB more money.

 

Right... Put Romo on either team and suddenly they're no longer playoff contenders.

 

Romo has been pretty damn good and has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the past 3 years, and the highest 4th quarter QBR of all time. Don't lump him in with Dalton. Dallas' defense sucks. That's their problem.

 

Some how a consistent 30/10 guy is the reason Dallas doesn't make the playoffs, yet the guy that is 30/20 with a lower accuracy number, is the reason Cincy does.

You know who made the playoffs and went deep his first two years? Mark Sanchez. Tony Romo is a 95-100 QBR guy year in year out.