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My metrics breakdowns of (nearly) every position

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by NUGap, Apr 23, 2014.

  1. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've sort of posted the links sporadically to my work, but I wanted to post a full list of links to the metrics breakdowns I’ve done this year, hitting on most positions outside of offensive line, safeties and inside linebackers.

    In total, I figured I charted around 55 players, 660 games, 15,000 plays, and around 150,000 individual data points. It was a lot of work, but I enjoyed the process. Thanks to everyone here who has read and given me feedback, especially CK and phinsational who have both given a lot of great comments and suggestions for current and future works.

    Quarterbacks, Tier 1 (Bridgewater, Carr, Manziel, Bortles):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/out-of-the-box

    Quarterbacks, Tier 2 (Mettenberger, McCarron, Murray, Shaw, Boyd):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46748/349/out-of-the-box

    Wide Receivers, Tier 1 (Evans, Watkins, Benjamin, Lee):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46006/349/out-of-the-box

    Wide Receivers, Tier 2 (Cooks, Landry, Beckham, Robinson, Matthews):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46136/349/out-of-the-box

    Running backs, Tier 1 (Hyde, Hill, Seastrunk, Mason, Sankey):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46396/349/out-of-the-box

    Running backs, Tier 2 (Sims, Johnson, Williams, Freeman, Carey):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46540/349/out-of-the-box

    Tight Ends (Ebron, Amaro, Niklas, Seferian-Jenkins, Rodgers):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46280/349/out-of-the-box

    Edge Rushers, Group 1 (Clowney, Barr, Martin, Gayle, Lawrence):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46928/349/out-of-the-box

    Edge Rushers, Group 2 (Mack, Ealy, Ford, Attaochu): http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46981/349/peshek-edge-rushers-20

    Defensive Tackles, Group 1 (Donald, Hageman, Sutton, Jernigan):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46653/349/out-of-the-box

    Cornerbacks, Group 1 (Dennard, Verrett, Mitchell, Roby, Gilbert):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46190/349/out-of-the-box

    Cornerbacks, Group 2 (Fuller, Hampton, Purifoy, Jean-Baptiste, Joyner):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46242/351/peshek-cb-
    metrics-20


    Sack Study (Clowney 2012/2013, Ealy, Ford, Sam, Barr, Murphy, Martin, Attaochu, Smith, Mack):http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46337/349/out-of-the-box

    I'll be writing one more piece for Roto next week on players I missed or have shot up draft boards since I wrote the first articles. The included players will most likely be Tom Savage, DaQuan Jones, Anthony Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Paul Richardson, Martavis Bryant, CJ Fiedorwicz (sp?), Xavier Grimble, Kyle Van Noy, DAT and maybe Logan Thomas if I have time. Thanks and enjoy.
     
  2. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    lotta good stuff guys ^
     
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  3. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Wow. Yes.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Excellent I hadn't seen that you'd finished the group two pass rushers.

    So Gayle and Martin seem like clear cream of the crop when it comes to PRR.
     
  5. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah just went up a little earlier. They definitely win out amongst these players. Unfortunately couldn't get to guys like Crichton or Marcus Smith, trying to get Van Noy done for the piece next week.
     
  6. Linus

    Linus Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thank you! Based on the Tier 1 WR breakdowns, I really wish we could find a way to nab Evans. His size, high percentage of deep passes, 8.92 YAC on screens, and really good YAC #'s even with almost 44% of his catches coming on comebacks seem to fit our team well. I know we need O-Lineman, but a potential playmaker would be great too.
     
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  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Must be time consuming.
     
  8. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Buckeye Land
    Shows how observant I am. I had already found and bookmarked your site and didn't even realize it was you. Probably "found" it from a link you or someone posted on here w/out realizing it was you.
     
  9. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Other 90,000* prospects please.

    *Estimation.
     
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  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Really too bad you never got the chance to work up Kyle Van Noy.

    I don't really consider the PRR of OLBs to be apples-to-apples with those of DEs but regardless, Van Noy's PRR would be ludicrous.

    He doesn't rush the passer as much as people think but when he does...he's INCREDIBLY efficient and savvy at beating blockers.

    I've got him well over Anthony Barr at this point on my board.
     
  11. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Van Noy's coverage ability is underrated too, imo. He's an impressive athlete who really looks like a 3-down player with instincts, quick off the snap, and can do pretty much whatever you ask...though I don't think he's your feature pass rusher. He wasn't great finishing plays in 2013, tackling form not as disciplined, kind of loose/lunging/grabby. But he's great starting plays, imo, his initial motions are quick and sudden off the snap, and he's decisive. Real NFL kind of movement from his stance.

    He was unreal in 2012. I wonder if he dialed it back just a bit last season realizing that he should've put himself in the NFL by that point.
     
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  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You're right on everything here. He's really an incredible overall athlete and it's because of his ability to see things on the move in real time and react to them. Combine that with very underrated physical characteristics (agility, quick twitch, balance, strength) and you have a hell of a player.

    To be honest I'm tempted to see if the Eagles will trade us their 1st rounder for Dion Jordan so that I could take Van Noy to be a Sam in place of Misi who moves inside to Mike. And if you also grabbed a Ryan Shazier that's one hell of a linebacking unit.

    Of course then you've still got to figure out the offensive line, LOL.
     
  13. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Hah, what OLine? My trouble with wanting OLine for us at 50 is that the media mocks/boards are seriously underrating a couple really good defenders. Crazy value, so it seems...the NFL guys actually making the picks are probably in a different place on these guys.

    But yea, I keep seeing Deone Bucannon and/or Van Noy available at 50. Like...sign me up. These are guys I'd love to trade up for at the back-end of the first, and I keep seeing them falling into the mid-2nd.

    And trading Jordan? That's...bold. I think Dion's in for a huge year if we, ya know, put him on the field. Can't wait to see him doing everything everywhere.
     
  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Ziggy Ansah's presence was a plus for him.......... but he's still a fantastic prospect regardless. I know it's a different position but when I watch Van Noy I think I see Lawrence Timmons, and it makes me wonder if he might not make an even better ILB. He's definitely the kind of player you'd want QB'ing a defense.
     
  15. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Drafting the thumping Bucannon and moving Reshad to free in 2015 is an entertaining idea, especially with Hickey's history of safety in Tampa, first with a top 10 pick on Barron and then a big contract for Goldson. I think Bucannon would need a year to settle in so this would be a good time to draft him.
     
  16. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    I think they'd be a fine pair because they're both just very good all-around players. Bucannon might end up being the best safety in the class, and at the very least he's not far off right now. I think he's a first round talent, and someone you just cannot pass up at 50.

    Bucannon won't be able to take elite slot guys man-to-man as a rookie...few too many wrong steps and tight hips to hang with the really quick guys. He struggled in the Oregon game particularly marking Josh Huff (who would look great in aqua). I feel for him a bit that game because the rest of that WSU defense is truly terrible, got run up and down the field all day.

    But he can do pretty much everything else and I think he has the tools to get better covering the slot by being physical. Imposing frame, straight-line speed, hits like a house, takes good angles to the ballcarrier and tracking it in the air, great ball skills, turnover machine, can handle TEs. He's a very good player all around. He's best playing downhill at this point, but I think people are equating big hitter to can't cover when it's not completely true in this case.

    I'd love to add this kind of versatile enforcer to the middle of the field. Looks like a LB like Kam Chancellor, whose coverage tools are also underrated. But I think Bucannon will be able to float back over the top more often. Like I said, he's a no-brainer to me at 50 and a potential move-up target.
     
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  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think ultimately Coyle would like to be running a system that doesn't depend as much on differences in the safeties. Reshad Jones and Deone Buchanon would fit together on that basis.
     
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  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think man coverage is actually Buchanon's strong suit.

    I didn't see the kind of issue you did with him in the Oregon game. Huff only caught one pass on him and it wasn't really in man coverage.

    Biggest issue for me was that blown tackle on Mariota that resulted in a long TD run, and that was just overpursuit.

    Oregon will tend to challenge any defensive backfield. They spread the hell out of the field, create all kinds of issues with their options. He did fight back in that game though, big forced fumble.
     
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  19. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Huff should've had a long TD on DB, iirc, but Mariota missed. Either way, I do think the ultra-quick guys could give him a little trouble in the beginning of his pro career. You're right that he can definitely cover, especially when he utilizes that length. I'm just saying that these big boards/experts who say he's a downhill in-the-box hitter are selling him short. I think they see the linebacker frame with the big hits and immediately think he can't stick with guys downfield. But really he's a much more complete player.
     
  20. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    This thread is GOLD. Great work NU
     
  21. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Im a bit sad I just saw this now... but at least I still have a few days before the draft to dig into these today...

    Guess I'm not getting much work done at the office today. :lol:
     
  22. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, duty calls. :yes:
     

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