Who is excited for next month's draft??? God knows I am. Free Agency to this point I'd give us a B+, based off the fact we filled a few needs but still have some holes to be addressed. Biggest thing I have liked (besides Albert) we really didn't drastically overpay. I love getting Starks back as I thought he was a for sure goner. I think Shelley Smith is exactly the type of athlete we have been dying for at guard. If Finnegan can get back to somewhat of his 2011 form he will be valuable. Ideally, guys besides this draft we need the 2013 class to progress. I expect a major jump from Dion Jordan and to me I really don't care if he plays DE/OLB/Hybrid whatever.... the dude can play but he's got to develop. Jamar Taylor I hold with the biggest expectations, hopefully he is healthy and a year in the league with a lot of tutelage will serve him well. I think Jelani Jenkins is a sleeper of sorts and came on towards the end of last year. Will Davis if he can learn to mature and get stronger could develop into the risk taking turnover making corner a la Asante Samuel. Dion Sims I really don't know... showed some things but nothing special. Pressing Needs: RT; OG; ILB; WR/TE Additional Needs: RB; FS; QB Everyone has there own opinion but I believe in drafting for BPA, but am never opposed to drafting for need. Biggest thing to me if you have the opportunity to draft a difference maker over a need you may be able to wait a round on that is a big "no-no". Two major decisions that still irk me. 2010 draft: Decision to trade back and take Jared Odrick and passing on Earl Thomas. Odrick is a fine player and may end up being a Pro Bowl caliber player but Earl Thomas may be the best NFL defensive player. 2010 draft: Drafting John Jerry in round 3 over Jimmy Graham. Yes, one could make the argument that no one knew that Graham would become this good. Well, if any team should've it should've been the professional team that plays next door. What excites me about the potential of this draft is the unknown. I've seen so many people say Hickey likes "high character" players but seriously would any GM say they wouldn't. This is my personal ideal mock draft (critiques, feedback are welcome, but understand this is how I view the need vs. difference makers per round): Round 1: CJ Mosley ILB - I know people will debate he is bound to go higher. But, I don't see it. Looking at teams picking ahead I see these teams who could potentially scoop him up: Minnesota 8 (too high to pick a LB whose not can't miss); NYG 12 (they did resign Beason, think they go DT/OL); Steelers at 15 (too many needs from OL/CB); Ravens at 17 (they resigned Smith; draft Arthur Brown last year in round 2). Listen, I know people are clamoring for Zack Martin but guys he is either player RT or LG two positions he didn't play much of in college. If you are going to draft a tackle draft Morgan Moses (way too early at 19) or draft the best guard in Xavier Sua'Filo. Brining in Mosley will bring a new dimension on our defense a complete 3 down LB. Then we can move Ellerbe to OLB and let him, Wheeler, Jenkins, etc. compete for the starting spot. Round 2: Austin Sefrian-Jenkins TE - Woah, you're kidding me...no OL in the first 2 rounds, that's ludicrous. Why though? Well, I am all for drafting a rookie RT but I see value in round 3 that couldn't trump the steal of this potential pick. Reported that ASJ paid a visit to the Miami Dolphins and I am hoping they envision a big receiving target as a major need on this team. Charles Clay is great at what he does but ASJ offers a totally different element to this offense. Picture what the Eagles had in Zac Ertz last year but picture a even bigger, stronger, and better blocking TE. This kid played at 280lbs last year due to the fact they were a heavy run offense team. I would like him 265-270 to optimize his athleticism. Injury concerns and work ethic questions but I love our TE coach Dan Campbell and how he can maximize players potential. Round 3: JuWan James OT - Yes, Tiny Richardson may be the better known prospect but I like James a whole lot better. Reason 1: He played RT in college so it won't be like learning how to walk again. Reason 2: He played against same damn good offense in the SEC. Reason 3: He has the ability to be a day 1 starter for us, he is just a fluid athlete who plays mean. We signed a LT, but RT has become a huge commodity lately. Round 4: Dri Archer RB/WR - Again, there is just something about a player like this that we've passed up in previous years that I hope we can learn from our mistakes. Case in point in the NFL you can never have enough offensive weapons and pass rushers. This kid while very undersized seems cut from the mold of Darren Sproles who play with a low-center of gravity and absorb his more than take them brutally. I love the fact that he has great straight line speed but also exception quickness and agility. Whether its getting him the ball at RB or WR or in the slot he needs the ball in his hands. Also would push Marcus Thigpen for KR duties and hopefully unseat that waste of a roster space. Round 5: Jon Halapio OG - Had a underachieveing career at UF. But, our new OLine coach already had a private workout with him and I believe he see's untapped potential there. By all means I view this pick as more of a redshirt rookie year and letting him get into a strength program, but if he comes in an wins a spot better for us. Ideally, I view the battle for OG to go Shelly Smith v. Dallas Thomas v. Sam Brenner v. Nate Garner v. FA (Travelle Wharton or Wade Smith). Looking at that Smith has potential but hasn't been f/t starter. Thomas was put at RT and is not a fit on the edge, he was a All-SEC OG in college though, don't sleep on him. Brenner is more of a backup C/G hybrid. Garner is just a backup can't rely on him to stay healthy enough to start. Signing Wharton who still has something in the tank to mentor the young line and potential rookie RT would be ideal. Smith around the same age is familiar with Coach Benton from Houston. Round 6: Isiah Crowell RB - Remember him the stud Freshmen RB from Georgia who got himself kicked out of school. Well, did you ever hear a negative thing since he left. Yes, there are major red flags but there is zero doubt in his ability. He reminds me of the type of runner like Marshawn Lynch. Not the fastest but fast enough, not the quickest but quick enough, not the biggest but big enough, and not the strongest but damn strong enough. Moreno signed to a one year deal is a good stop-gap but could lead into a long-term which is fine. Miller has shown potential but nothing to make you sleep better at night. Again you can never have enough weapons and drafting a RB who had he kept his nose clean could've ended up a Round 1/2 top RB is a major steal. Round 7: Aaron Colvin CB - Colvin I believe torn something in his knee late in the season maybe even the bowl game. Too bad as he was a mid round prospect before the injury. But his misfortune is our fortune as finding a potential CB/S this late in the draft with that much ability will do wonders. Ideally, he probably will be put on the PUP list to begin the year and could be another redshirt rookie. But, as long as the 2013 CB's step up and become contributors I have zero problem with that. Finnegan and Grimes are both on the wrong side of 30 and we need to plan for the future as well. Regarding the rest of FA: -Sign Travelle Wharton to 1/2 year deal to start at OG and mentor the youth on our line. -Sign Thomas Decoud as backup FS who could play in our 3 safety sets on passing downs -Re-sign McKinnie as insurance and emergency starter for both LT/RT 2014 Depth Chart: WR - Wallace, Binns, Archer WR - Hartline, Matthews, Gibson Slot WR- Gibson, Matthews, Archer TE- Clay, ASJ, Sims, Egnew LT - Albert, McKinnie LG - Smith, Thomas C - Pouncey, Brenner RG - Wharton, Garner, Halapio RT - James, McKinnie QB - Tannehill, Moore, Devlin/UDFA RB - Moreno, Miller, Crowell, Archer FB - Don't believe we use one much this year, maybe sign vet (wouldn't mind Greg Jones) DE - Wake, Shelby DT - Starks, Mitchell, Francis DT - Odrick, Mitchell DE - Vernon, Jordan OLB - Misi, Jenkins MLB - Mosley, Ellerbe, OLB - Ellerbe, Wheeler CB - Grimes, Davis CB - Taylor, Finnegan Nickel - Wilson, Finnegan FS - Delmas, Wilson SS - Jones, Don Jones K - Sturgis P - Fields LS - Denney KR - Archer PR - Archer
I like the picks for the most part, but it's dangerous not taking linemen until the 3rd. The right side of the line is already a question mark, but if anyone goes down we'd be screwed. I do really like Mosley and ASJ though. I'd probably take another back over Archer in the 4th if you're going to take a back that high. I think some of the good ones will fall and one of Seastrunk, Sankey, Hill, Williams, Freeman or West would be there and would be a better pick than Archer and Crowell.
Get McKinnie back, play him at guard until a tackle goes down. Maybe trade back for Morgan Moses and an additional 2nd. I'm sketch on Alabama LB's due to the Raiders busting on that one kid in a similar scenario. Saban is an exceptional disciplinarian and tends to make players seem more instinctive and better than they are... O-line issues really need to be overwhelmed with help this year. Yeah, it's boring, but their lackluster play really affected not only our offense but our defense as well. Otherwise, this is the most complete team I've seen in a long while...
To Sports24/7: I agree it is a risk. But when you look at it, is there a Round 1 or 2 pick at OT that would be that much of a significant upgrade over JAmes in round 3, and with that are they worth passing up Mosley/ASJ if they are on the board. See, I don't view Archer as a RB more of a gimmick RB like you see Percy Harvin play at times. I wouldn't mind him coming out of the backfield as a receiver or playing the slot wr role. To Pandarilla: Not opposed to trading back at all, but I really hope in that scenario the legit playmakers are off the board. Moses is pretty good, but is he first round good? In regards to McKinnie putting him at guard would not be much different that John Jerry. If you know our new OLine coach he is a legit zone read scheme guy. We need guards with athleticism and the ability to pull. McKinnie does not have those qualities. See, I had the same reservations about Bama LB's but after seeing the way Hightower came on for the Pats, I see Mosley as a more athletic version of him. I know the Oline needs to be revamped and is a priority but relying on so many young players to hold the fort still scares me. Bring in a vet guard on a one year discount and see what happens.
While I agree that the Dolphins LB corp is below average at best and picking a LB in the first round would be great. The fact is that the biggest problem on this team remains the offensive line. Right now there are two reliable starters on this unit and the rest of the OL is anyone's guess. This coming season is a make or break year for Tannehill and Philbin. Therefore Hickey has to do whatever is necessary to draft a quality starter for the OL in the first round. If he has to trade up to get one of the top tackles in the draft, so be it. There is no way the Dolphins can wait until the 3rd round to draft an offensive lineman who will probably end up spending most of the 2014 season on the inactive list on game days. Sometimes I think some people on here forget just how bad this line was last year and other than Albert, there have been no definite upgrades to the OL yet. Right now the OL remains the weakest overall unit on the entire roster and therefore the first two picks by the Dolphins should be used to upgrade this unit.
good writeup, although I read that Wharton is likely to retire or at least he is considering it, also DeCoud signed with the panthers last night
I saw that too with Wharton, but he is foolish to retire before the season starts. With the draft coming up and teams potentially missing on OL prospects, then with injuries. The guy was rate a Top 5 guard by PFF so he is still a high level player. Saw that with DeCoud, I just hope we draft/sign someone for insurance or for next year if Delmas doesn't pan out.
Yes, the OL still has questions I am there with you. But, lets lay it all out there. We are picking too low to get a top 3 T (Robinson, Mathews, Lewan) even Zack Martin might be gone when we pick at #19. I like Morgan Moses but he is not a Top 20 overall player. So if you were GM who would be the OL you'd stock up in Rounds 1/2?
Trade up if need be for a tackle? Love Albert but he's older and has a hard time drying healthy. If rather trade up to snag a career starting RG or RT than throw a bunch I low-rounds at the OL position. First and 3rd to slide up? I haven't paid attention this year so I have no idea who's available and what they're worth
Trade up? Dang man we just invested $46million on a LT and you wanna move up to draft a RT. Sorry, bud but we are in zero position to lose draft picks if anything we need more of them. If we hadn't addressed LT via FA im with you 100% but where we sit at #19 we'd prob have to give up that and our 2nd just to get into Top 10. Would you really do away with 2 top round picks that could yield you two difference makers for a G or RT?
We need quality, long term offensive linemen. No better time to trade up. Might take more in the future because I don't see this team as regressing in the immediate future.
Yeah, I get we need quality long-term lineman but no rookie is ever a guarantee. To go OL in rounds 1/2 with the amount of talent across the board would be foolish. Truthfully, if we traded up for Robinson or Matthews at least the value in trading up is there. Lewan/Martin might be on the board at #19 so if they are there and we take them I can't complain about value. But, Martin is not good enough to trade up for, and seeing as we wouldn't play him at his natural position of LT that is a huge question mark. Lewan is good but watch the film he isn't perfect and isn't someone you trade up for. You just don't trade up to draft a RT it makes no sense. While who knows if we regress look at the NFL it's changing. 15 years ago it was great to have 2 capable WR's. 7 years ago it was needed to have 3. Nowadays the teams with stacked offenses keep replenishing. The Broncos haven't stopped. Look at our lack of Offensive production yet again we still don't have enough playmakers to be a SB contender. Think about this we are paying $48million for our LT, and a All-Pro center on the verge of a big contract. Now we want to draft a RT #1 and potentially a guard #2? What about MLB? Another WR? TE? CB? FS? RB? All positions that will need addressing at one point or another?
Thanks for the read, I Think your paying too much for Mosley and ASJ. Draft is about value, you must trust your grade, I have both those players slotted lower.. Imo we have 3 major holes, oline/middle backer/offensive weapon,sometimes for me at least,it's about getting it right more times than the other guys do, so I find myself with a team filled with draft picks, and sometimes that requires you to play it a bit more safe..
See I can picture why it may seem like that. But, please tell me how assessing the needs you listed and the value where CJ Mosley is widely considered a top 15 prospect and drafting him at 19 doesn't present value. More so, I can understand with ASJ but outside of Ebron he is my #2 TE. He can block and has athleticism. But, at #50 it may be high but I expect him to be picked within the first 55 picks. Sorry, but after hearing people who talk value and think a player like Zack Martin presents value to play RT or G at #19 overall doesn't make sense. You don't draft an OG within the 1st 20 overall picks unless they are a superstar a la Mike Iupati. But even then its questionable. Then to top it off we are talking about a player who started all but 2 games at LT to switch positions and potentially sides is not a formular for success. If the pick is Taylor Lewan who drops back again he'd be expected to change sides which isn't an easy task. IF we wanna discuss value/need/bpa in an instance. How about: 1st - CJ Mosley 2nd - JuWan James - Natural RT very talented player. 3rd - Offensive Weapon (Dri Archer; Bruce Ellington, etc) I'd love to hear what and who you value in draft?
I do not agree that the draft is about value...anymore. High picks simply mean a bigger pool to choose from. That's it. the only "value" in the draft is a hit.
quite simply because even though those are our needs I do not have Mosley and ASJ as high as you do, it doesn't matter what the consensus says. I'm not trading up for anyone, so let the draft come to you, stack your guys,know what players present great value relative to need positions you feel you can get later, and take that into account when making your first pick.
Maybe we are interpreting the word "value" differently, value is getting a player later that turns into a player that should of went higher.
No, i know, its just that isn't important anymore. That was only really useful before the rookie scale. The only thing that matters in the draft anymore is hitting on as many picks as possible. getting a guy at a draft pick lower then what he was projected does absolutely zero for you now.
Whys that? I agree the objective is to hit on as many picks as possible, still don't understand your 2nd part..rookie scale or not, it's about drafting the right players.
You were saying that value (getting a player at a lower position then they were projected) was the main goal of the draft. I'm saying that's not the case anymore with the rookie scale, and that the ONLY thing that matters is getting the right players.
Your odds of getting the right player go up if you take the player with the highest grade. The higher the grade, the more likely he is to be a good/impact NFL player. If a guy 'falls' to you, then that means you have him rated higher than guys who went before him.
No one is arguing that. Deej was saying the MAIN goal of the draft is value. I'm saying the MAIN goal is for your picks to turn into great players. For example, Seattle got major "value" with Wilson. He wouldn't have played any differently had they taken him higher. Now sure, they turned their first two picks into more picks and really good players, but that's because they did a good job making picks. Had they failed at that, Wilson in the 3rd is still good "value" and he still wouldn't have played any differently. Basically, if your FO is solid at identifying talent, then "value" is irrelevant. Now, of course the higher pick the better off you are of hitting, but that's not really "value" in the way it was being discussed up to this point. The other thing is, there's still no guarantees. Consensus top picks bust all the time. You can score a guy that dropped and get "value" but he can still be a bust...so the "value" got was nothing.
IMO value is only good AFTER you know that player you picked turned out to be a good player. Then you can say " oh look, we got this stud player and we managed to get good value on him on top of that". Value by itself is nice on draft day, but it is meaningless unless the player performs. Recent examples for the Dolphins is Jon Martin. Projected as a first rounder, dropped and on draft day many thought Dolphins got good value on that pick. Lamar Miller is another example of good value that is yet to show it. Picking the right player is the true goal, value is just the cherry on top.
This, basically. Preconceptions of the draft(even among experts and professionals) lines up so poorly with the reality that it really doesn't matter. The best possible draft as run by a person with precognitive abilities would probably be panned as a really terrible draft at the time.
Everyone is making excellent points... Value can be interpreted different ways and I agree since the chance in rookie scale it has changed. In my mind, getting a player at a lower position than anticipated would result in high value and a good steal. But, in my mind value also depends on the expectations for the player. The way we look at this draft with need a G and RT most pressing for sure. But, the draft is deep and by deep I mean very deep. Looking at the 1st round outside of Robinson/Matthews the Tackle prospects aren't sure things. Taylor Lewan - some have him Top 10 some 2nd round. I view him as a 1st round prospect but again fi we were to draft him he would be switching sides. Not saying he can't do it but as history has shown it isn't easy. Especially when the knock on him is his technique. Not the overall formula for success. Zack Martin - doesn't have length in many peoples mind to main the LT spot. Good, we have a LT in Branden Albert. But, again he started all but 2 games at LT. I think he could develop into a very good guard but at #19 overall that's way to high to hope the transition can be made. If you want to go OG that early go Sua'Filo at least he has played the position you want him to and at a high level. Again if you play Martin on the right side its like teaching him to walk again, he could probably do it but still an unknown. Morgan Moses - good prospect but not worth of a #19 overall, but I would love to see someone support it if they feel that way. Moses is a good prospect who played RT/LT but thrived at LT. At least with him it wouldn't be a new transition to go back to right side. But, chances are he isn't available in round 2 at #50. Well, so what there are plenty of other talented prospects some who actually play RT. Looking at those options and assessing value (from a standpoint of draft status/position fit/talent): I can't look at those prospects and say they offer better value than CJ Mosley at #19. We are talking about a difference maker at a position that makes a difference vs. taking a flyer on a OL and teaching him to learn his position at the completely other side.
I just want to say if you believe in your assessment of a player's potential and you believe that potential to be high, then they are worth the pick you take them at if you don't think they'll be available at your next pick. Take Moses. Say you believe he'll be an excellent starter for you and you pick at 19 & 50. He's there at 19 and you don't think he'll be there at 50. Taking him at 19 is not too early then. Granted he can bust but so can Clowney.
Obviously I mean that the ones you do get value on are the right ones.. This isn't complicated, pick the right players, and stay with your own grades..if those grades help you aquire players higher or lower than your competition, you win.
I very rarely ever believe in trading up, and that's because I feel I can pick better players than the other guys strait up, I feel my combination of players will be better than your 1.
Getting the right guy at a lower pick than taking the same guy higher doesn't really present any "value" other than bragging rights at the GM convention. All that matters is picking the right guy where ever you take them. Had the Pats gone back and taken Brady in the first, everyone would have blasted their concept of value, right up until their first SB win. I wasn't suggesting anyone trade up.
Well, value does matter in one obvious way: using a lower pick than the consensus on a guy means you could use a higher pick on someone else, in theory maximizing your total haul. But it's true, at the end of the day, the bust rate ( esp. for finding above-average to great starters ) is so high that at the end of the day, it's about how many of those guys you've ended up with when you look back 3-4 years...
I know you weren't, I was using that as an example of a way of getting value. The draft is about understanding what players present the value and where they are projected to go.just because I think a player is gonna be a player doesn't necessarily mean I have to take him rounds earlier, I understand what your saying, but the draft is and always be a game of winning the evaluation process, every year presents opportunities to out- evaluate the other guys and not fall for the banana in the tail pipe I.e, not overrate players.
I don't see why both philosophies can't co-exist.. If I was in charge of personnel, I would consider myself a very conservative evaluator, very safe evaluator, and that's only because I'm convicted about the players I want and don't want, and understand that down the road, if I can make a team that's tough, consistent, good leadership and character, with a very good Qb, and a lot of draftees that have made my team and have their roles, this will allow me to sustain success, then, when I need to, with calculation, take a risk when I want, Instead of out of desperation.
