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Combine Viewing Guide by Tony Villiotti

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by TooGoodForDez, Feb 19, 2014.

  1. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I really like his focus on the "Flying 20".

    It's something I have been running and comparing for many years.

    The downside to his focus on the 10 yard split is what I keep talking about...it's the MOST sensitive measurement in terms of pure measurement error.

    When it comes to a 40 time, I often find that measurement error can account for between 0.08 seconds to 0.10 seconds difference in either direction. The problem with the 10 yard split is that most of that error comes at the FRONT end of the run, not the splits or the back end. The splits and back end are laser-timed. The front of the run is subject to a thumb and subject to inconsistent start methodologies by the players.

    Look at the 40 yard dashes in his table. The top 10% versus the top 50% for all the positions. The average position-difference between a top 10% measurement and a top 50% measurement is 0.17 seconds. If measurement error can account for a maximum of about a 0.08 to 0.10 second error in the time then that won't often take you from a top 10% number all the way to an "average" result and certainly not down to below average. In fact it usually takes you only half that far. You'll go from "above average" to "top 10%" or vice versa.

    Now look at the 10 yard dash table. The average difference between a top 10% reading and top 50% reading is only 0.08 seconds. If measurement error can screw up a time by 0.08 to 0.10 seconds, and most of that is concentrated in errors at the FRONT end of the run, then you could have pure measurement error take you from a guy that should have measured in "elite" territory...all the way down to slightly below average. Can you imagine that? That's terrible acuity.
     
  3. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Flying 20 is the last 20 yards of the 40 dash?

    Also, I wish he included measurements like hands, wingspan, height etc. (I understand those tend to vary more, but still.)

    As far as the error, hopefully the same people/instruments are timing all so the error is consistent throughout, give or take neglible number of players that may get over or under evaluated. But I see your point when it comes to comparing results between different years.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The time difference between a laser-timed 10 yard split and a laser-timed 40 yard dash is generally going to give a good, clean basis of comparison between players. It virtually eliminates measurement error and start inconsistencies.

    The reason I like that is two-fold. For one thing I don't like measurement error and nobody should. For another, I don't think 40 yard dash starts translate well on a football field. They don't account for reaction times at all because it's actually the timer who is reacting to the player.

    Just take a step back and watch the 40's at some point and tell me that these players' techniques for their start resemble anything even CLOSE to what they're doing on the football field. I mean they lean down and then inch their way back into a crouch, perched all precariously with their arm a certain way and their feet a certain way and their balance all wonky to try and get this perfect track start. That doesn't happen on a football field. That sh-t don't translate.

    If you want to get an idea about a player's explosiveness and acceleration then I say look at the other stuff like the vertical, broad jump, shuttle and cone times. Then take the "Flying 30" and see how purely fast he is.
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The measurement error is not consistent. It varies as much as players' start techniques vary, and players' start techniques vary quite a bit. In my experience it's a random distribution.
     
  6. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Since you brought up the stance.

    Is there a reason that they don't line players up in natural football stances for the 40?

    In other words have the WRs in a WR stance snd so forth.
     
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fluidity..coordination..reactionary time..explosiveness..mental connection to footwork..body type..genetics.

    Combine is very important.
     
  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Speaking of Combine times, Bovada has out their Combine lines.

    Here are the ones that speak to me.


    Johnny Manziel Over (-250) or Under (+170) 4.49 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.49

    Most Bench Reps Over (-130) or Under (-110) 42.5
    My Bet: Over 42.5

    Teddy Bridgewater Over (-110) or Under (-130) 38.5 inch Vertical
    My Bet: Under 38.5

    Jadaveon Clowney Over (-150) or Under (+110) 4.50 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.50

    Sammy Watkins Over (-145) or Under (+105) 4.32 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.32

    Michael Sam Over (-120) or Under (-120) 4.70 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.70

    Mike Evans (-120) vs. Johnny Manziel (-120) 40 Time
    My Bet: Mike Evans

    Lache Seastrunk (+150) vs. De'Anthony Thomas (-200) 40 Time
    My Bet: Lache Seastrunk

    Will Jadaveon Clowney still be Todd McShay's #1 overall pick in next post-Combine Mock Draft? Yes (-140), No (EVEN)
    My Bet: Yes


    There are others. The best 40 time is set at 4.28 seconds and I think that if Dri Archer doesn't break it then I'm not sure who will. I would be tempted to go with the Over on that if I had to. The best vertical is set at 43.5 inches and if I had to take one I would go Over on that as well, as I believe some of the Baylor boys could shock the hell out of people (especially Tevin Reese). There's a similar "Will Mel Kiper still have Johnny Manziel as his #1 overall pick in his next post-Combine Mock Draft" and the moneylines are exactly the same as McShay's with -140 yes and EVEN for no. I would actually lean toward no because the price is so good, and because it could be a nice back stop for me if Jadaveon Clowney does break into the 4.4's. Blake Bortles' 40 time over/under is set at 4.70 and I really feel like I should know this but I'm not 100% positive on it. Teddy Bridgewater's 40 time is set at 4.60 and my temptation is to go Over there. Johnny Manziel's vertical is set at a paltry 32.5 inches and I'd be tempted toward the Over because it is so low.

    I have literally not lost a single Combine bet that I have made. Ever. That doesn't mean I haven't picked wrong, but out of the dozen or two bets I've made I haven't lost a single one. I've pushed on some but mostly because players pussied out of doing the workout.
     
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  9. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would love Mike Evans. I don't know what to think of Clowney; freakish talent, unfreakish work ethic. Don't think he will end up being worth the #1 pick. Which makes me think Jordan will never be worth the #3 pick.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Odell Beckham Jr. is an interesting case study.

    I can see why people like him but he's so much like Mike Wallace to me that his 40 time is actually pretty important. He can't BE Mike Wallace unless he RUNS like Mike Wallace. Wallace ran a 4.28 and that was at the Indianapolis Combine.

    This all goes back to my beliefs that you have to watch the tape, see what a player is trying to be, and then judge whether he's got the goods to be that. I think that OBJ can be physical plucking the football out of the air but only in certain situations. He's out there running so much faster than some people that they're really huffing to try and catch up. When they arrive at the catch point they're usually at a severe disadvantage and meanwhile OBJ has had time to comfortably set up his balance and go up for a "contested" ball. It's all about comfort level. The speed creates good comfort level for one guy and not good comfort level for the other.

    When you see that you start looking at things and saying well OK then I want to see him do that against better football players. I don't want to see his 16 catches for 416 yards and 6 TDs against the likes of UAB, Kent State and Furman. I want to see his 43 catches for 736 yards and only 2 TDs against the rest of the opponents. To that end, only 2 TDs in those 10 games (both against Mississippi State) is a red flag because with the type of player he looks like on tape, where speed and space creation are so incredibly important to his game, you'd predict he might have some troubles from inside the red zone.

    You notice he caught 5 for 118 yards against TCU and you think well hell that's a nice start to the exploration. That should be against Jason Verrett, right? Except no. Only one catch was against Verrett and it was a very short catch that Verrett gave up in the underneath coverage, and nearly knocked away even though he gave it up. Otherwise Verrett shut him down.

    You watch his 5 catches for 59 yards against Auburn. Chris Davis and he must have had a heck of a battle, right? No. Chris Davis didn't even play. They had some SEC athletes blanketing him and putting more pressure on him than he's used to and he kind of wasn't handling it well at all.

    So then it comes back to what he really runs. If he really were Mike Wallace running that 4.28 then I don't think non-pro caliber SEC athletes necessarily shut him down just by being aggressive. If he's really a Mike Wallace then he's still creating his comfort zone against them. So I suspect he's not going to run like a Mike Wallace.

    But if he does, that will affect his grade to me.
     
  11. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Beckham fights for the ball, kinda like a combo between Wallace's speed and Golden Tate's college tape or even Keenan Allen less the size from last year.
     
  12. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I gotta go back to Beckham's tape again but I recall thinking, with the way he's able to pluck the ball on the move, his great body control, acceleration, and lateral ability that he'd be ideal between the hashes like a Victor Cruz type.
     
  13. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Kelvin Benjamin 6-5, 240, holy mother of god! Could be a TE.
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    And probably should be, IMO.
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I should have had Brandin Cooks threatening the 4.28 in addition to Dri Archer. He's that fast on tape. I just had not done any research into how fast Cooks has been running during campus testings. He ran a 4.30 unofficial but the simulcam showed him a good distance in front of the other guys who supposedly ran 4.30 and 4.31.

    Teddy Bridgewater bailed on all drills so his bets are a push.

    OL Russell Bodine of UNC put the bar up 42 times which means the 42.5 over has not been reached yet. I think my best bet on that is DT Ryan Carrethers. If he doesn't do it I think I'm screwed.

    I easily picked up the Johnny Manziel and Manziel-vs-Evans bets. That was like taking candy from a baby.

    I'm a little curious about Seastrunk-vs-Black Mamba. I still feel good about my picking Seastrunk even though Black Mamba was the heavy favorite in the moneyline. We'll see.

    Jadaveon Clowney showed up at only 266 lbs which means he's doing everything possible to lose my Over 4.50 bet. I'm a little scared but the I continue to take solace in the "official" times being so much slower than the unofficial ones.

    I'm still pretty confident about Watkins (Over 4.32) and Michael Sam (Over 4.70).

    McShay's Mock Draft #1 overall is a coin flip and I should have probably not bet it. That's not within my area of expertise and was just a "hunch". I don't even really refer to it as a Combine bet.

    I think I will lose a Combine bet this weekend (maybe two) but my perfect record remains in tact.
     
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  16. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Good job ck.

    I am intrigued with Connor Shaw. Of all the QB, I feel he is one QB who can execute the game plan safely a la Wilson, has the speed to roll out, run when needed. Also, he is tough minded and a football player. I feel he'd be a decent back up.
     
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  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Connor Shaw one of the consistent few QBs on my target list for the position. At the top there is Bridgewater and Bortles. At the middle is Garoppolo. At the end are Connor Shaw, Brock Jensen and Dustin Vaughan.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Sammy Watkins a 4.34 unofficial. His official will probably be 4.40 or some such. I think my Over is safe.

    EDIT: A 4.37 on second run. Unless something very weird happens on Official adjustment, I expect that bet to be a win as well.
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    LOL Teddy B did his vertical and broad jump and did a 30 inch vertical. Easy win there.
     
  20. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    I hope you placed some of these bets in Vegas lol. You are killing it!
     
  21. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Jarvis Landry hurt himself. Slot guy only, 3rd option.
     
  22. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    ck nailed the Dri Archer speed too, he is on a roll.
     
  23. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Seastrunk slower than De'Anthony Thomas.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Lost the Seastrunk pick by 0.01 seconds. Official times were 4.50 for DeAnthony Thomas and 4.51 for Lache Seastrunk.

    First one I've ever lost in three years.
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Sh-t. I'm sunk on the Bench bet. Russell Bodine came 1 shy of winning me the bet and Ryan Carrethers put up a stinky (compared to what he's capable of).

    Ah well. Two lost bets in three years with a few dozen wins...not bad.
     
  26. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Bishop Sankey is a big winner today IMO. The difference between seeing the second '4' in a 4.49 vs a 4.50 probably helped him a lot.
     
  27. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Chris, are you planning on re-timing any of the 40s this year? No way I believe that DAT, Tre Mason, and Lache are all the same speed.
     
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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If I have the time I would like to.

    You have the right platform for this stuff so if you want to use it on an official basis I have absolutely no problem with that. I won't charge...much. I accept hugs as payment. Or just putting my name somewhere in the piece.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The real tip-off IMO about how bullsh-t the "official" times are, is Mark Gorscak himself.

    Just look some time at how heavy-handed he is in the regulation of the 40 starts. If you rock forward or move your head or don't hold still for three beats, or move your front hand, or whatever...he is supposed to blow the whistle. What does that tell us? It tells us that the process for officially starting the 40 is not at all perfect and Gorscak has to get the players to conform as tightly as possible to a set of rules in order to try and make the subjective process as good as it can be by achieving complete uniformity. But no matter how heavy handed Gorscak is, players are going to be idiosyncratic in their starts. That's just the way it is. And Gorscak himself is not going to catch every non-uniform start. And that's not even discussing how it can hurt a player to have a misfire and be whistled by Gorscak.

    It's all a terribly flawed process, IMO. And it's therefore not surprising when you get really funky results.
     
  30. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Definitely surprised by his numbers, including the broad and vert. Maybe there's something there for him as a higher pick, but I'm not a big fan at this point. I don't see game-changer, I guess.

    He was great between the tackles in college, but I don't see enough balance or active foot quickness to make up for his size when running inside at the next level. I think back to someone like Gio Bernard who is still really effective/tough at the same size because his feet are so quick/always under him that he can bounce around and make those sudden cuts. I just don't see that with Sankey. Sankey at times looked overmatched against top competition this year, imo, not great handling contact with NFL-type players like against Stanford.

    That said...after his workout I'll be going back to check out some more of him. Would love to hear from people who like him.
     
  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I agree that Bishop Sankey stabilized himself a lot.

    Ka'Deem Carey on the other hand gave people a glimpse on why folks like Mike Mayock and myself have not been all that excited about his tape.
     
  32. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Sankey is solid. And his change of direction is quick on film.

    George Atkinson is the guy a lot of people will go back to watch. Put up good numbers. Also Damien Williams. These are guys with great size and now with explosive numbers. Jerrick McKinnon helped himself a lot as well.
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Jerrick McKinnon is being viewed by some teams as a defensive back which I think tells you a lot.

    Sick athlete but doesn't seem to have a position.

    I'd be tempted to put him at fullback as I originally said. He's way more athletic than most fullbacks have ever been. But that's part of the attraction. It's the most "learnable" position he could move to especially relative to his experience. Nothing wrong with being a uniquely gifted fullback. Ask the Raiders and Marcel Reese.
     
  34. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    I think McKinnon is now my favorite RB in the draft.
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Good luck with that.
     
  36. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    In skiing they start the clock based on the skier breaking through a tiny gate (the skier has a small window to break through). This makes the times (in which races can be decided by hundredths of seconds) extremely accurate.

    I get that the NFL is also interested in how quickly a player (especially a lineman for measuring the 10 / 10 yard splits) gets off the blocks. It does not appear that they do an electronic start time - but base it off the players reaction, is that correct?

    If you are really looking for speed and a 4.45 vs a 4.51 is going to make a difference, and if you are asking who actually runs faster in the 40, then you ought to give a 3-4 second window for a player to start and let him break through one of those little gate timers. If you are timing electronically then let it be at both ends.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    OFFICIAL PICKS

    Johnny Manziel Over (-250) or Under (+170) 4.49 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.49
    Result: Win - 4.68

    Most Bench Reps Over (-130) or Under (-110) 42.5
    My Bet: Over 42.5
    Result: Loss - 42

    Teddy Bridgewater Over (-110) or Under (-130) 38.5 inch Vertical
    My Bet: Under 38.5"
    Result: Win - 30"

    Jadaveon Clowney Over (-150) or Under (+110) 4.50 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.50
    Result: Win - 4.53

    Sammy Watkins Over (-145) or Under (+105) 4.32 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.32
    Result: Win - 4.43

    Michael Sam Over (-120) or Under (-120) 4.70 40 Time
    My Bet: Over 4.70
    Result: Win - 4.91

    Mike Evans (-120) vs. Johnny Manziel (-120) 40 Time
    My Bet: Mike Evans
    Result: Win - Mike Evans 4.53 vs. Johnny Manziel 4.68

    Lache Seastrunk (+150) vs. De'Anthony Thomas (-200) 40 Time
    My Bet: Lache Seastrunk
    Result: Loss - Lache Seastrunk 4.51 vs. De'Anthony Thomas 4.50


    ADDITIONAL COMMENTS

    Best 40 Time Over/Under at 4.28
    Comments: "The best 40 time is set at 4.28 seconds and I think that if Dri Archer doesn't break it then I'm not sure who will. I would be tempted to go with the Over on that if I had to."
    Result: Dri Archer 4.26

    Best Vertical Over/Under at 43.5"
    Comments: "The best vertical is set at 43.5 inches and if I had to take one I would go Over on that as well, as I believe some of the Baylor boys could shock the hell out of people (especially Tevin Reese)."
    Result: Lache Seastrunk (Baylor) 41.5" and Tevin Reese (Baylor) 41.0", best vertical jumps thus far

    Johnny Manziel Over/Under 32.5"
    Comments: "Johnny Manziel's vertical is set at a paltry 32.5 inches and I'd be tempted toward the Over because it is so low."
    Result: Johnny Manziel 31.5"
     
  38. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    4.53 official for JC = Win
     
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  39. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'll see what the Roto people think, I've got my remaining pieces pretty planned out, but I'll see.
     

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