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WR Metrics

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by ckparrothead, Jan 29, 2014.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  2. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Interesting way to look at things. Very impressed with the breakdown on Landry. Caught balls over all portions of the field and on varied routes. IMO That bodes well for his NFL future.
     
  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Personally ever since I got a second, much closer view of Allen Robinson...I have been very tempted to put him as a third in a trio including Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins.

    I think those are the top three receivers in this draft.

    Greg and I have talked before about yards after the catch on screen passes being a nice indicator of what a receiver can do pretty much on his own. It stands out to me that Robinson gained 14.3 yards after the catch on his average screen pass, especially since almost 28% of his completions were screens.

    You can't get a clearer picture of a program trying to use a wide receiver's pure skills to carry a passing game rather than a quarterback's pure skills, than by seeing a receiver catch an inordinate number of screens and then do a tremendous job gaining yards on those screens. Those aren't QB plays. Those are pure and clean WR plays.

    Then you look at Allen Robinson having nearly 50% of his pass completions come on plays where he's coming back to the quarterback. This is a hallmark of the system in which he's working, which is an NFL style system brought by Bill O'Brien. It explains the 4.2 yards after the catch he achieved on non-screen passes.

    Mike Evans has a similarly high comeback percentage but this is more evidence of the style of offense run by QB Johnny Manziel. He creates a lot of extra-time situations and scramble rules often dictate players to come back to the quarterback in those situations.

    The thing I take from the drop rates is sort of a red flag on both Kelvin Benjamin and Marqise Lee. Everyone else's drop rates are relatively in line with one another at around 4-5%.
     
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  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Four things really stood out to me about Allen Robinson on tape view.

    1. He was used in a wide variety of manners in Bill O'Brien's offense. This translates well at the next level. He was inside, outside, moved before the snap, took end-arounds, etc. O'Brien clearly settled on Robinson as the primary guy to feature in his offense and his route variety was suggestive of this. Lots of pro style stuff here.

    2. His ability to finish catches is borderline special. I can think of, right off the top of my head, three catches he's made while the defensive back was flagged for pass interference. I don't want to place too much importants on only three plays but you have to keep in mind how incredibly hard that is to do, and how significant a sign it is when a guy is able to do it. Finishing the catch is not just your hands but the way you use them at the top of the route to create separation, then position your body, and finally come down with the football.

    3. Those hands of his which come in such use in finishing the catch are also useful when it comes to shedding physical press coverage. But it's more than just the quick hands. There's this feel that his lower body is not easily knocked off balance. His momentum is not easily affected by attempts to get physical with him either at the line or at the 5 yard mark. He is, ultimately, a 6'3" and 210+ lbs creature...and that makes him harder to knock around. Dez Bryant gave me the same vibe.

    4. While his run after catch ability is not special on the order of Dez Bryant, he does have the ability to make SPECIAL plays by running after the catch.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=K-cuNKb4Kjk#t=177

    Just look at that play. That's an unbelievable play. The decision-making on the play was perfect. He cuts back all the way across the field as he senses over-pursuit. But what REALLY has my attention is the cut he makes at the opposing 45 yard line. At that point he already senses that despite having three blockers to help him, there are four Ohio State defenders that have taken very deep angles in order to cut off the potential touchdown. He could have pushed the sidelines and MAYBE gotten to the opposing 20 yard line.

    That wasn't good enough. He senses more over-pursuit so he makes a cut back to the middle of the field at the 45 to 40 yard line, squeezes between defenders and suddenly he's got an open path to the right pylon. Touchdown.

    The senses he put into action on that play were truly superb.
     
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  5. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks for posting these Chris. I've done a ton of work on WRs specifically and I have another 4-5 WRs that I haven't posted on. I think my list goes something like this:

    1a. Sammy Watkins
    1b. Mike Evans
    2. Allen Robinson
    3. Odell Beckham
    4. Brandin Cooks
    5. Marqise Lee (subject to change based on how his hands look at the combine, this is his ceiling for me)
    6. Davante Adams
    7. Jarvis Landry
    8. Jordan Matthews
    9. Kelvin Benjamin
    10. Paul Richardson
    11. Devin Street
    12. Donte Moncrief
    13. Martavis Bryant (so enticing from a physical perspective, but the character stuff could just drop him off completely)
    14. Jalen Saunders
    15. L'Damian Washington

    There's some guys missing like Cody Latimer, Robert Herron, that I just haven't had a chance to look at. I'm probably lower on Moncrief than others and higher on Cooks than others as well. I actually was an advocate for Jalen Saunders early in the year, a little more hesitant with his weight and so-so YAC, although he wasn't exactly helped by his QB.

    Moncrief, Richardson, Washington, Benjamin all had really nice attributes but were lowered due to some drop issues.
     
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  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Those three catches during FLAGGED defensive pass interference doesn't count the stuff that went unflagged. I've seen two unflagged instances where he either made the catch anyway or came a fraction of an inch shy (one against Wisconsin where the ball barely scraped the ground so it was a no-catch, the DB had mugged him hard with the ball in the air).
     
  7. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm curious, did you do a similar metrics evaluation on last year's WR crop? If so, how good of a predictor were they on the players success after one season?
     
  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'm finishing my tape view of Allen Robinson and I will say this.

    The very WORST that he is, is a James Jones. That's the worst case scenario, IMO.

    However I could also see him being anywhere from a Reggie Wayne to a Dez Bryant.

    People who loved Keenan Allen last year...this guy is Keenan Allen with better RAC ability and better ability to finish contested catches. I don't know ANYTHING about his character. But if that checks out then that's another thing he has over Keenan.
     
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  9. Deerless Dice

    Deerless Dice Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    so does Miami take him at 19? i doubt he falls to 50.
     
  10. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No. You can't take a WR in the 1st round unless you somehow get rid of Hartline or Wallace and I don't see that happening. There will be better players at 19 who will fill a greater need.

    I could see them going TE though.
     
  11. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not as detailed but here are two things I wrote last year:

    Patterson, Hopkins, Allen, and Bailey: http://secondroundstats.com/?p=21

    Williams, Patton, Hunter, and Wheaton: http://secondroundstats.com/?p=230

    None of the stats I put together are "predictive" per se, so they won't tell you exactly if a prospect is going to work out. They're more to give you context and show red flags. Though if you want to know which WRs I thought showed well in the stats here you go:

    Good:
    Terrance Williams (deep ball)
    DeAndre Hopkins (deep ability)
    Patton/Bailey (YAC, Screen YAC)

    Bad:
    Justin Hunter (bad hands, low YAC)
    Keenan Allen (short passes, avg YAC)

    But I also have a lot more stats this year to help understand why certain prospects have low YAC, why they catch short passes. So the data is much more complete. For instance if I used last year's parameters, we would have had no clue that Allen Robinson's low YAC was due to a huge amount of comeback routes. So take it as you may.
     
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  12. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Yeah I bet if you asked him, he'd probably say he patterns his game off Dez. Even uses Dez's little jump step off the line. He's like Dez lite or Dez without the beast mode. If you took Dez, dropped 10-15 pounds of muscle from him, you'd pretty much have Allen Robinson but with a smaller catch radius comfort zone.

    My only concern [and it won't show up in his collegiate drop rate] is his hands, specifically his ability to pluck the ball and use them as if they're on a separate control switch from his body. It's not really an issue at the college level but I could see it positioning him in the mid to late 2nd b/c at the NFL level it could prevent him from reaching WR1 status.

    Look at all the great receivers in the league and throughout history. One main common denominator is their ability to snatch the ball and do so in a way that allows them to either adjust their body for an easy transition after the catch or to maintain their separation from coverage. Their hands aren't hard wired to their body's movement like the majority of receivers but rather instead they have separate control of each simultaneously. It's like people who can cross one eye while the other does circles or some sh-t. That's what separated DeAndre Hopkins and allowed him to become a 1st rounder and impact as a rookie and that's what'll allow Sammy Watkins to do the same. Rather than adjusting their bodies to convert off-target throws, the let their hands do the correcting so that they can either maintain separation or transition from catch to run for YAC.... or if the throw is good but the coverage is tight they can manipulate their body to create separation between the ball & defender and let their hands do all the work. It's more than just being a hands catcher, and the opposite of doing this isn't necessarily about being a body catcher.

    Watch Sammy and you see his body positioning during the catch process is outstanding, which either leaves himself immediately ready to transition from receiver to runner or lets him maintain or create separation. It's like a baseball outfielder going through the extra work of positioning himself beyond a pop-fly so that he can come back to it and make the catch on the run with his glove extended in order to seamlessly transition into his throw rather than just standing directly under the popup for the easy catch. Great receivers similarly manipulate their bodies to either create a seamless transition or to facilitate the catch in tighter coverage. This isn't to be confused with making the tough catch on fades or jump balls with a defender draped all over the receiver like Robinson seems adept at doing. With Robinson, he doesn't seem like a body catcher per se, but at the same time his catch-radius comfort zone seems somewhat confined, like an outfielder who feels more comfortable standing directly under the popup. His comfort zone horizontally seems roughly about two inches to the left or right of his chest and vertically from his lower chest to just above his helmet, and this is where he often positions himself to make the reception [even if it hinders his transition], rarely having his elbows extend unless they need to be. I'm apprehensive to believe this is correctable b/c on throws he actually has to adjust to that fall outside of this radius, his hand-eye coordination seems to diminish to the point I'd label it questionable until proven otherwise. It's one thing to look a ball into your hands when its line of sight is uninterrupted and your eyes, hands, and the ball are all fairly well lined up, but it's another talent entirely to make an elbow-extended catch a few feet to either side or down around your knees or thighs when the eyes can't line it up and when the actual sight of the ball is broken the last few feet or so. That gets into mental geometry where the mind has to assess the throws trajectory, speed, etc and position the hands accordingly rather than simply watching the ball straight into them.

    I also don't like Robinson's inconsistent participation level as a blocker. I still like him and would think long and hard about drafting him with our 2nd, but I don't feel as good about him with a late 1st round selection upon trade back as a I did early after just a cursory review of him.
     
  13. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I can't see 15 WRs better than Jared Abbrederis.
     
  14. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    His omission really was just me forgetting him, but I'm also not a big fan of his. His YAC is just horrendous, I got through about 5 games and it was at about 2.5 yards/ catch. You can see this on film where he just catches the ball and falls over. The majority of his catches were short and really only got 11-20 yard receptions when the defense was playing way off.

    Sure he burned Roby (but I'm also not a Roby fan), but that was really the only impressive thing I saw. I think to myself, what WR in the NFL has limited YAC, is around 6'2" and is just decent in terms of physicality. The comparison I come to (it may seem racial, but it's not) is Brian Hartline. Except Hartline is superb working along the sidelines and a much better route runner than Abbrederis. So maybe his upside is Brandon Gibson (?), a reliable WR who can move the chains and play from the slot.

    Problem is, we already have plenty of reliable WRs, I'd much rather be looking at WRs with a special trait. Excellent hands/ YAC, ability on screens (Cooks), height/speed (Bryant), tall guys who can play from the slot (Street). To me Abbrederis doesn't present any of those. I'll take another look though in case I'm missing something.
     
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  15. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    That's an accurate comparison, although I think he will be a legitimate red zone threat unlike our boy BHart.
     
  16. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Robinson's Wisconsin game sums up what I'm referring to. Then compare that to the way Sammy catches the ball. His highlight clip does a great job illustrating how fantastic Sammy is at using his phenomenal hands & hand-eye coordination to adjust to throws in order to seamlessly transition to runner.

    [video=youtube;WkRgWc8pSQw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkRgWc8pSQw[/video]

    [video=youtube;w9RqmdAwFvo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9RqmdAwFvo[/video]
    Sammy's TD at 0:31 above would've been a diving reception for other receivers looking just to secure the catch into their chest or gut.

    Another example below. Rather than making a typical diving attempt and being downed at the spot, he extends for the grab and turns upfield for an extra 5 yards.
    [video=youtube;LvzmKM7cdeI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvzmKM7cdeI[/video]

    ...and again at 0:27 here, especially the replay afterward.
    [video=youtube;XXHkazm2dlI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XXHkazm2dlI#t=26[/video]

    ...and the correction he makes to this dart of a slant here for the TD.
    [video=youtube;b7Qmx853cyc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7Qmx853cyc[/video]

    Where most receivers would climb the latter to secure this reception and have the play end right there, Sammy makes the catch more difficult for himself so that he can continue running for an additional 30 yards and the TD.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=TG76oVHfC3A#t=112
     
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  17. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    What about Rutgers WR Brandon Coleman?
     
  18. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    It's unfair for people to be on Robinson now. :tantrum:
     
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  19. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    We were on him before you were you sorry sack of a PSU fan. Should be ashamed of yourself to be so late to the party, Pete.
     
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  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I really don't think the problem being discussed with Allen Robinson's hands-vs-body is that big of a deal.

    I think we're over-complicating catch radius and run after catch issues. I think it's more minor than it's being made out to be, especially in a guy that gained like 7.5 yards after the catch on 97 catches...and has made a bunch of superlative physically contested catches with his hands and not his body.

    We are talking about a junior, by the way. If the thing he needs to work on is positioning his body better for run after the catch, then he can work on that. It's not like he shows a problem with it on every catch or even a majority of catches.

    I think I've counted one play I've seen it flash to me as a problem. Just that slant play against the Wisconsin Badgers. I've seen his entire games against Nebraska, Eastern Michigan, Syracuse, UCF, Ohio State and Wisconsin. That's six games and I saw one play where I didn't like how he was position his body versus hands for the run after catch effort.

    I think I've seen three other plays where I didn't like his tendency to jump in order to try and catch the ball rather than just stay on his feet...but that is an extremely common phenomenon among even the best players.

    Everyone needs to work on something. Sammy Watkins needs tremendous work on his route running. Mike Evans has to prove that he can do as much damage without a quarterback constantly buying extra time.

    I mean this issue goes toward his ability to consistently gain yards after the catch. That's what it pertains to. Well, when you see a guy that can make plays like these with the ball in his hands, I think perhaps we need to take a step back and realize there are other positives at work here that might outweigh this minor negative (which can be worked on).

    (note how he runs over an offensive lineman and it doesn't even affect him)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Xm3MFgJaD4&feature=player_detailpage#t=3

    (note the timing of the move he makes in the open field which springs him for a TD)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Xm3MFgJaD4&feature=player_detailpage#t=21

    (note balance through contact, he'd have scored a TD if that second guy didn't come finish the job)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzCrpLd_uqc&feature=player_detailpage#t=1

    (look at how he uses his blockers, instincts all over the place)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzCrpLd_uqc&feature=player_detailpage#t=65

    (again the instincts and quickness in traffic after the catch)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-cuNKb4Kjk&feature=player_detailpage#t=18

    (superb run after catch on this play)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-cuNKb4Kjk&feature=player_detailpage#t=129

    (just...watch)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-cuNKb4Kjk&feature=player_detailpage#t=178

    (beautiful RAC play)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkRgWc8pSQw&feature=player_detailpage#t=28

    (look at the strength and brutality after the catch)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkRgWc8pSQw&feature=player_detailpage#t=301

    And if we're talking about hands issues, he's got a 5% drop rate (see original post) which compares with everyone else out there and is significantly lower than Kelvin Benjamin and Marqise Lee. And then there are some of these catches:

    (defensive pass interference, still catches the end zone fade for TD)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzCrpLd_uqc&feature=player_detailpage#t=281

    (defensive pass interference, damn near makes this catch anyway)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-cuNKb4Kjk&feature=player_detailpage#t=71

    (physically contested, woefully underthrown catch on deep ball against Stanley Jean-Baptiste)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XjPVcKDF00&feature=player_detailpage#t=281

    (another heavily contested catch)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkRgWc8pSQw&feature=player_detailpage#t=139

    (damn near catches this ball despite being very late/underthrown and flagged for defensive pass interference)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkRgWc8pSQw&feature=player_detailpage#t=359

    (doesn't get much more physically contested than this...catches despite DB flagged for DPI)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNCXKgrgtt0

    Why am I linking all these clips? Simple. To show that we're talking about a potential RAC problem on a player that has demonstrated superb run after catch, and a potential catch/finishing problem on a player that has demonstrated superb ability to finish physically contested catches.

    It puts things into perspective.

    Ultimately, the biggest argument against Allen Robinson that the scouts will make is a classic triangle number argument. They'll say he's not fast enough. They'll say if he's going to be this kind of speed then he needs to have the super-sized look of Mike Evans or Kelvin Benjamin. Or it'll be the other way, if he's not going to have that kind of size then he needs to be able to hurt defenses with speed like Sammy Watkins or Marqise Lee.
     
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  21. Claymore95

    Claymore95 Working on it... Club Member

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    With Hickey supposedly being more of a BPA guy, can we really count any position out at #19 though? Ireland, yes, we sort of knew how he drafted, Hickey's a wildcard. That, along with not knowing how much input Philbin will have in the draftroom, makes it harder to predict where we'll go.
     
  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I always had respect for the kind of work ethic Nu-gap put into his findings, I thought in the beginning he wanted to change the ways of identifying talent, but now I understand that this is a talented individual looking at the prospect from all sides and metrics and that he must be respected..
     
  23. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    You missed what my concern is if you think it's about Robinson's YAC potential. He's clearly good the ball in his hands. My concern has more to do with catching, specifically his catching ability on throws that he cant line up with his eyes, as well as letting the ball get a tad too in on him than I'd prefer. I mentioned the way he transitions from catch to run, not as an attempt to knock his YAC ability, but more to illustrate my point about his catch-radius comfort zone b/c he routinely positions his body to fit that narrow comfort zone rather than snatching throws amidst transitioning from receiver to runner, or just snatching throws in general.

    Yes, this is something that could be corrected with coaching & repetition, however when you watch how he catches passes that fall outside of his apparent comfort zone, it seems like it could be more of an inherent hand-eye coordination issue. I never suggested he's gonna bust or anything or doesn't have solid NFL potential; I only said I could see it being enough of an issue that it drops him to the mid 2nd round and creates concern about WR1 potential. I'll go back through and time stamp what I'm referring to.

    Odell Beckham Jr on the other hand doesn't raise these concerns in my eyes, which is why I'd be inclined to put him ahead of Robinson.
     
  24. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think he has a better catch radius than Cordarelle Patterson but overall I don't have him rated as high as Keenan Allen.
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I understood what you were saying. But the phenomenon can't be a negative unto itself. It has to affect something production-wise to be a negative, otherwise we're just debating about his eye color or overbite.

    I'm saying this phenomenon of yours is only a negative if you believe it adversely affects his RAC ability, or his ability to catch the football. And I'm saying that he has demonstrated superb RAC ability, and superb ability to catch the football both consistently (5% drop rate) and in heavy traffic under heavy duress.

    So essentially we are talking about a RAC problem on a guy that's excellent at RAC, and a hands problem on a guy that has excellent hands.
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    By the way I do have Sammy Watkins pretty locked in as the #1 wide receiver at this point so let's not get into thinking that I'm detracting from Sammy.

    Perhaps I should have better stated that one could argue that Allen Robinson could be a superior prospect to Mike Evans, or at the very least have a higher impact as a rookie.

    Evans is very raw and immature. He's going to need some polishing up and he's also going to need good QB play and a good offensive mind to figure out all the ways he can be used as a mismatch weapon.
     
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  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Really hard to watch tape of Marqise Lee without coming away thinking man, I wish I could draft Nelson Agholor.

    I think Marqise is going to draw pretty much the exact same grade from me that Santonio Holmes drew. I tink he's a 1st rounder, but only just. Clearly he moves well, has enough feistiness to do damage. Despite the drops he has the feet to adjust to the football. I just think Santonio is a really good comparison for him and that includes character and attitude-wise.

    I'm perfectly comfortable drafting an Allen Robinson over him. I can really isolate why I like Robinson over a Marqise Lee. Robinson's RAC ability is so much better, and his adjustments to the ball in the air and "my ball" mentality are far better. He's more of a technician at the details than Lee. He doesn't have as much pure speed but he does have much more physicality which makes up for it. Combine all that with Robinson's experience in a pro system and the variation with which he was used at Penn State...I think it's a solid beat.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think I'm really starting to solidify the top end of the WR board. I haven't gotten to do my follow up rounds on Brandin Cooks or Odell Beckham yet.

    I'd have Sammy Watkins way up top. He's the guy you can be sure is going to be a high impact player at the next level. However high you wanted to draft him probably isn't too high in and of itself, it's just purely about which other players were available when you took him. Would you take him over a Jadaveon Clowney? Not sure you would. Would you take him over a Jake Matthews or someone like that? I think that's where need can come into it. I wouldn't take him over one of the quarterbacks (Bridgewater or Bortles) if I needed a quarterback.

    I think Mike Evans is a sky is the limit type of player that could be enormously impactful a la Vincent Jackson or even Jimmy Graham...but it could also take a while and you could find yourself dealing with kind of a pr!ck in the mean time. I'm not saying that based on inside info. It's just the feel I get in the way he plays. You're going to have to build the guy from the ground up as a route runner I think. But he is explosive, ridiculously physical, sudden and fast, and I don't know if there's a better "my ball" kind of guy in the draft. The marriage between deadly RAC ability and deadly "my ball" ability is what makes him so dangerous, and he combines that with the quickness to create separation consistently.

    Allen Robinson will take third place on some boards but should take second place on other boards. If you're a Miami Dolphins with a Joe Philbin offense, rightfully he should be in second place because I don't know how much I trust Evans in such a timing and precision-oriented offense, especially with a coach that get so thoroughly turned off by anyone that says anything other than "yessir" or "no sir". Robinson has the pro experience and has that Dez Bryant physicality quality after the catch. It's not on Mike Evans' level simply because he doesn't have Evans' size. But the fight in the dog is just as big and he's more savvy as a receiver than Evans. If you dull just a smidge some of the edges that Mike Evans has in his game, that's Allen Robinson, but in a package that is much less volatile on the field and much much much much more polished. I keep thinking Reggie Wayne when I see him play.

    After that I think I am going to have Marqise Lee. I have yet to decide if I'll put Brandin Cooks or Odell Beckham on top of him because I need more tape study of those two. Lee moves incredibly well without the ball in his hands and gets open naturally. He's very fast and capable of some physicality. I don't worry much about him getting knocked around by physical coverage, but I do worry more than the above three guys. The thing I wish he had is the same will after the catch that the above three had. He doesn't have that. And he drops the ball and acts like an idiot at times as well. And he's not the kind of technician I'd want. Ultimately he's a guy I can see getting a 1st round grade but that I'd have a tough time taking on my team in the 1st round...if that makes sense. Maybe that's the definition of a 2nd rounder.

    Kelvin Benjamin has the look of a role player at the next level. He pushes the size thing too far to the point where he's tipped into "slow" category. I don't see him creating much separation that the defense didn't just give him. Too much of what he does is going to have to be about being physical at the point of the catch and coming down with the ball. There are much smaller corners that have such quickness advantages over him that if they allow themselves to be aggressive and physical, playing with confidence, they really dominate him except for in certain situations. He's really good at what he's good at, and like I said there are certain situations where you will be scared as hell of him as a defense. The final touchdown in the Auburn game was a perfect example. But there are not ENOUGH of those situations for him to be a bonafied and legit impact starter.
     
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  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I got you. I remember you asking about him a long time ago. Or more to the point, asking why I didn't have him in the 1st round yet.
     
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  30. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I think Benjamin runs pretty well. Regardless of size.
     
  31. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I'm inclined to put Beckham 3rd behind Evans. Benjamin 4th b/c of his upside, and then Robinson, Lee, and Cooks. Not sure of the order of the last 3.

    After Sammy, Beckham is the next best fit for our offense IMO. Benjamin & Robinson might distract the eye with a greater physical presence paired with highlight reel plays, but for the other 85% of the passing game that revolves around precise route running, quick separation, and the ability to catch & pluck everything and aggressively go after the ball to keep the defender's grubby fingers off it, Beckham separates himself from the crowd in my eyes. He's more in the Victor Cruz, Randall Cobb, younger Greg Jennings type of mold.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'm not sure there's a more precise route runner in this draft than Allen Robinson, to be honest.

    Odell Beckham reminds me of Mike Wallace a lot. Man is that guy fast. But he leaves a lot of potentially BIG plays out there just dropping the ball or not showing good hands.

    He's burning through some of these secondaries like a hot knife through butter. But then the ball is there and he's not hauling it in. This is especially true on over the shoulder catches, but low catches present a problem for him as well. He's most comfortable square to the ball and high-pointing it or catching it at face level.

    He's making a lot of catches like against Mississippi State where he is able to high-point the ball and these are making him look good at catching the football in physical situations. But really what's happening is his speed has put the defender at a serious disadvantage versus Beckham, so the defender is running all-out trying to close and Beckham is able to comfortably set up for the catch. Under those circumstances he's consistently winning at the top of the route and catching the football.

    But when I watched him against Jason Verrett, things changed a bit for him. Suddenly you've got a guy with the goods to keep up with him. Verrett is definitely outclassed by Beckham's speed but the margin is not a lot (unlike when catches 5 of his 8 TDs against UAB and Furman). Verrett is not outclassed by Beckham's total skill set. He's able to anticipate him and through a combination of discipline, technique and natural physical ability, he's staying with Beckham. This flips the tables a bit and puts the pressure on Beckham, who by my tally didn't catch a single ball on Verrett. Verrett got a pass interference on Beckham in the end zone but I watched the replay close and I have NO CLUE what the hell the officials were seeing because that was damn good defense.

    Based on what I'm seeing it makes me a little worried about the fact that Beckham produced 11 catches for 340 yards and 5 TDs against the likes of UAB and Furman, but then against the rest of the crowd he caught 48 balls for 812 yards and 3 TDs.

    It's all so Mike Wallace-like that it's kind of scary.
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I mean watch his game against Auburn. Another nice case in point. This video is actually Zach Mettenberger vs. Auburn but it really shows a lot.

    [video=youtube;OPF871mz8h0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OPF871mz8h0[/video]

    This isn't Jason Verrett that's keeping up with him and generally keeping him bottled up. It's Ryan White (#19). Chris Davis isn't even playing in the game. Ryan White is on nobody's radar. NFL Draft Scout has him #999 on the CBs list which means they've never had any reason to even bother grading him. He runs a 4.54 too so it's not like he's a 4.3 speedster. What he is though is just SEC talent. When they get him manned up on Beckham he's generally got him covered. And when Beckham has someone that can stay in his hip pocket then suddenly he looks a hell of a lot worse at the catch-point.

    I mean in THAT game, that Auburn game, the catches he got were generally catches that the defense gave him. Defenses will give you catches, depending on the way they play you. When you've got Jonathan Mincy on a speedster like Beckham, you give him a lot of underneath room. And if your QB finds it and you don't have a robber in the passing lane, it's an easy take for Beckham to just pop out of his vertical stem and take an easy underneath catch. Or on a catch he had on a crosser, his corner blitzed and so he was generally untracked as he crossed the defense and eventually Mettenberger found him after rolling that way. That's stuff the defense gave to him. He didn't TAKE anything from the defense.

    There's just so much potential with that speed you wish he were a more complete player.
     
  34. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think you've just got a bad sample bias on his hands. I've got the majority of his drops coming against TCU, Ole Miss, and Auburn which could account for why it seems more prevalent since those represent what are on DB/Youtube. Obviously I've got him at a 6.45% drop rate in the linked post which isn't particularly bad.

    I charted/watched his games 1.5 months ago, so it's a little hazy, but in quickly scrolling through some clips I think you can see more body control, contest catches than Mike Wallace has ever made. There's a particular play against UAB where he has nice control.

    And this catch on Verrett is a good job getting his foot down: http://youtu.be/b_M52KgXSJ8?t=3m57s

    One handed against Iowa: http://youtu.be/0jZbGUMevcI?t=3m33s

    I know what you're saying and if we're talking Cooks vs. Beckham you'd have yourself a good discussion, because I think both show their own weaknesses. However, I think Beckham ends up being more polished than some of these other WRs including Lee with a much wider body of work than some of these guys who spent all day running screens or catching 3 yard passes.
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Yeah I don't have to re-visit Brandin Cooks for very long to see why I love this kid so much.

    He is just such a god damn gifted football player. He's a 1st rounder. I can't imagine giving him anything short of a 1st round grade unless my eyes are deceiving me greatly and he's out there running 4.5's or something.

    His variable speed, change of direction, pure ball skills, run after catch ability...they're all very good. And he catches the ball in physical situations, judges the football very well and fights for it. The only thing deficient is his size.
     
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  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Well first off a 6.5% drop rate is not great as it seems to me the average is around 5% for the good prospects.

    Second it's the SITUATIONS in which Beckham drops the football, on those deep routes when he gets open and the ball gets to him. Those situations are precious (as we find out with Mike Wallace) because the defense doesn't let you have them and the quarterback doesn't always get the football there. When you drop those deep ones those are costly and yeah I do think he has some issues with over the shoulder catches judging by the full body of work, not just the drops he's had but his tendencies in how he approaches the football in the air.

    Mike Wallace has actually made some very good catches with body control at the top of the catch. Ones that look eerily like the Beckham catches. The key though is that his huge speed advantage against the likes of UAB defenders creates that opportunity to COMFORTABLY find the football and position his body at the top of the catch. The problem is when he's facing guys that are able to keep up with him and be physical with him, his concentration drops off the map. In those instances, you'd better put the football right on him with a superlative throw if you want it complete.

    As for the catch against Verrett, I forgot about that catch. It was the only one. And Verrett literally let him have that underneath real estate given the down, distance, and defense...and damn near prevented the completion anyway. That's really not that impressive a play for Beckham.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    When it comes to Beckham versus Cooks...I don't think it's much of a contest. I think Cooks takes that one. He's such a better all-around receiver. His variable speeds, direction change, route running are all more intricate than Beckham and he plays the football in the air better as well. More comfortable with tighter coverage, and has a LOT more moves with the football in his hands whereas Beckham is (like Wallace) mostly just pure speed with the football in his hands.
     
  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I can't make definitive statements right now because the Combine is pretty important for any outsiders that don't already 95% know what these guys are going to run based on previous testing.

    But right now I'd have to say the ordering for me goes:

    1. Sammy Watkins
    2. Mike Evans
    3. Allen Robinson
    4. Brandin Cooks
    5. Marqise Lee

    I definitely have Odell Beckham ahead of Kelvin Benjamin but I have yet to figure out where I put guys like Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief and Cody Hoffman relative to those two.

    EDIT: And now that I look at the rankings you previously laid out, we're remarkably similar. The big difference for me is Odell Beckham. I like him, but he has limitations. There's a lot of pressure for him to go out there and not just be fast but SUPER fast at the Combine in order to justify the style of play he has.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I like watching Brandin Cooks against Oregon because he went up against the best corner tandem in the country (most likely) in Terrance Mitchell and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. And down for down, he faced those guys too. It's not like Oregon State was able to move him around and get him away from those two. He faced one of those two on probably 90% of the downs.

    Those guys battled hard, there was give-and-take, but in the end Brandin Cooks comes away from the game with 10 catches for 110 yards. He made his impact on the game.

    Then you look at his game against Utah and Keith McGill, a standout from the Senior Bowl that people are buzzing about right now as being drafted high. But Brandin Cooks abused McGill. He caught a big 44 yarder directly on McGill's man coverage down the field. He had another big touchdown on a screen that started to McGill's side and McGill just stood no chance of matching Cook's speed as he crossed the field.

    Whereas you look at what Odell Beckham did against Jason Verrett...it's just that one underneath catch which Verrett damn near broke up. He had 5 catches for 118 yards in the game but only one of those was Verrett. That seemed to be a pattern for Odell Beckham...against stiff competition he's neutralized.
     
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  40. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    give me a receiver with some size. I like Beckham Jr but I think he'll go high in this draft, I don't know if I'd want to use say a 2nd on him when we've got a ton of other needs, I'd rather use a late round pick on a bigger guy like a Brandon Coleman or Martavis Bryant.
     

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