I know everyone is feeling the effects of losing yesterday. It's sort of like going out, getting hammered, and then waking up to a fat chick. That happen to anyone else? No? Just me? Okay, nevermind. Don't tell Mrs. VO I called her a fat chick. The only thing worse than an angry Viking is an angry Viking's wife. I wanted to talk about yesterday's game, specifically, the final score. Let's get the obvious out of the way. We lost - 21 to 23. Losing sucks. But I think, depending on your perspective, all may not be lost. The Optimist: I'm a natural optimist. Looking at our losses, it's very easy to quantify our results into something meaningful. The New Orleans game was and will be an aberration. Good teams get blown out, especially if they're playing in a high-profile prime time game. This was Ryan Tannehill's first appearance on Monday Night Football; it's reasonable to assume that he had some big game jitters. I watched the game, and I think that's a perfectly acceptable way to look at his performance. The other two losses are more easily explainable. We lost by 3 points to the defending champs - who may be struggling a bit but are the defending champs, and lost by 2 points to an underrated Buffalo team at home. Baltimore has had our number seemingly for years, we always play them close but we typically end up on the short end of the box score. Buffalo, at first glance, seems like a Waterloo in our season, a "We are who we thought we were" type of moment that regressed us back to the norm. But the optimist in me sees that final score - only a 2 point loss, against a hungry Buffalo team rallying around their QB situation. The Bills still have a very good defense, thaTat hasn't changed (regardless of who is under center). Coming off the bye, is it possible that this team got caught looking ahead to New England and taking the Bills for granted? I certainly think so. The Bills game has all the trappings of a classic trap game, with a decent team looking to the future (and Tom Brady) instead of focusing on the present. From here we are going to turn the corner in New England and use that as a springboard to get us back into playoff contention. The Pessimist: Our season is over. Ryan Tannehill is not the answer. The Bills game was the last straw for this team. Three straight losses have doomed us to another season of mediocrity or worse. Good teams don't lose to bad teams, especially at home, and especially within the division. Looking at our spate of upcoming games, it's hard to see a lot of wins coming our way. New England and Cincinnati are both going to be tough games. Rob Gronkowski is going to treat is like a frat girl. From there it doesn't get any easier. Tampa Bay has to get a win at some point. San Diego, Carolina, and (I can't believe I'm typing this) the New York Jets are all going to be tough outs. Rex Ryan's defense is going to destroy this offensive line. It's very easy to see a scenario where we are sitting at 4-8 with two thirds of the season gone. From there we get the Steelers, who are having a little bit of a down year but always seem to have our number (sort of like the Ravens - what is with these AFC North teams?). Then we get to the murderer's row portion of our schedule - New England, Buffalo, New York. Two out of three on the road. In December. In the northeast. Sure, we might win one or even two of those games, but there's no way this team is escaping with anything better than a 6-10 or maybe a 7-9 record. Jeff Ireland, Ryan Tannehill, Tyson Clabo, everyone not named Cameron Wake needs to go. And maybe even Wake, since he can't stay healthy any more and may be at a point where he's simply too old to be effective. The Realist: You can't look at the last three games in a vacuum, any more than the first three. When looking at our 3-0 start, we won both games that were decided by 7 points or less (Indianapolis 24-20 and Atlanta 27-23). When looking at our last 3 losses, we lost both games that were decided by 7 points or less (Baltimore 23-26 and Buffalo 21-23). This team hasn't changed since the start of the season - they've simply regressed back to the mean. Some folks call it luck - but it's really statistics. Over the course of a typical NFL season (which has a much too small sample size) it's reasonable to assume that a team will win 50% of games decided by a touchdown or less. The 2013 Miami Dolphins aren't an exception to the rule - they are the rule, personified, through 6 games of the season. (If you want an exception to the rule, look at last year's Colts team - 9-1 in games decided by 7 points or less). What does that mean for the rest of the season in Miami? It's reasonable to expect us to continue to split these games as they happen - most likely finishing with a record somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7. As I said up above, I'm a natural optimist. I don't think that this team is as bad as they've played over the course of the last several games. Cameron Wake should be back at near full strength for next week's game at New England. We finally have the athletes on defense to compete with Brady and company. I like the matchups there. Dion Jordan is a work in progress. That said, you don't trade up to the third overall pick for a project. You're wanting instant impact. Thus far, through six games and one sack, he hasn't shown it. Tannehill is the same way. 83.1 isn't a bad QB rating. But it's not great either. (It's also right in line with some of the other more heralded QBs - RGIII is at 83.4, CKap is at 85.0). I'd like to see Tannehill cut down on the mistakes (especially the turnovers - right now those are just killing us) and stop pressing so much. The real problem, I think, is that Tannehill doesn't have a great pocket presence. He doesn't have a great situational awareness, and this offensive line is just getting him killed. Did you know that Tannehill is now the most sacked QB in the NFL this season? If there's one area of the team I'm pessimistic about, it's this offensive line, which, outside of Pouncy, is beyond offensive and just abysmal. If this team continues to struggle - and it's certainly within the realm of possibility - then most likely it will be due to this line, which is currently ranked (and this was before yesterday's "performance" ) as 27th in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. Blech. If this offensive line can turn the corner - just get into the conversation at 20th or even middle of the pack - there's enough talent for this team in other areas to be dangerous. Will that happen? Well I guess that depends on your point of view. Are you an Optimist, a Pessimist, or a Realist? I'm curious to see how everyone else is feeling this morning.
I am kind of between a realist and a pessimist. Mainly bc it just seems every year we are going through the same stuff. Every year it is getting harder and harder to stay optimistic and hopeful. I don't really think the season is over, but watching this team play so bad AFTER a bye week at home, was really tough to swallow.
I'm always an optimist, and I've been kicked in the butt because of it, year after year. Not sure what to think the rest of this year, we could just as easily win 8 outta 10 as we could go 3-7. We have that kinda team.
Every fan is a little bit of everything. I think most were optimistic after a 3-0 start. The realism is we don't have any elite qualities on our team to depend on. Our defense is decent, not great. Our offense is shaky and streaky, sometimes good, sometimes terrible. We have two elite players on our team, one is a Center the other is an injured Defensive End. Great in their own right but the leadership areas for their side of the game is Quarterback, Middle Linebacker and Safety - that's where we need elite players at. When we needed a big stop at 3rd and 6 or so, Jackson rushes for about 10 yards allowing Buffalo to run more clock and giving Tannehill less time. That's not what great defenses do. By the way, we should be blitzing 80% of the time, our secondary is bad regardless if we don't blitz or not, why the hell did we pick up Dion, Wheeler and Ellerbe if we're not playing to their strengths? That's the realistic view of this team. I'm not sure we can turn it around, tough game next week against New England and an even tougher game against the Bengals on a short week (tougher only because it's a short week). I'm not confident we'll make the playoffs and I think we're headed to another 7-9 season. I rather be 3-13 than 7-9. What's the point of winning 7 games if you're not making the playoffs.
Well I said after the 3-0 start that people better watch out that we're not just the 2010 Dolphins who started 2-0 on the road, or the 2012 Arizona Cardinals, who started 4-0 despite being outgained in every game (as we were). Guess it was true. Realist with a touch of pessimism because its hard to be optimistic about a franchise that's been as bad as this one for over a decade now. Bad in the sense that they have either been terrible, or just mediocre at the worst times (Suck For Luck era when they just had to screw it all up and win those 6 meaningless games). Plus, they haven't been able to draft well in a long time. Its not over, but it'll probably end the exact same way it usually has, Miami fighting to stay out of the basement in the AFC East instead of a playoff spot. Whatever.
In every area of my life I'm an optimist, except of course in one area. After over a decade of mediocrity, bad decisions, bad coaches, bad players and 1,001 ways to lose football games and have disappointing seasons, it's really hard to be an optimist with the Dolphins. To me it comes down to trust. Trust is the expectation of a positive outcome. There have been very few positive outcomes with this organization in a decade to have any amount of trust in our owner, GM and now even some of our coaches. Every year, we're told it's different or we're rebuilding but then that reclamation project fails. I don't trust Ross. I don't trust Ireland. I certainly don't trust Clabo or our OL. I don't trust Sherman. I don't trust Bates. I'm starting to not trust Philbin. At this point, I'm of the show me mindset. I'll believe things are different when I see it. So far this season, I haven't seen it.
I think I'm typically a realist, and I predicted a finish between 7-9 and 9-7. I'm a bit more on the pessimistic side now as Miami still have the same holes they showed beginning in the Indianapolis game. Even though the did start to remedy some of those things in the run game, the O-line has shown it's still capable of torpedoing a game at any moment. Ryan Tannehill still looks like just a guy from time to time. I've said it since the Atlanta game that I don't think the defensive scheme is what would be best for our personnel and it's still showing the same fundamental flaws that were present even in victories. All that can change, and Ryan Tannehill has looked brilliant at times, so I hold out hope for the future. But, I think Miami is staring 3-5 in the face come November 1st and Joe Philbin seems like a captain that will go down with his ship (the USS Coordinators ) rather than abandon it to fight another day. That's how I feel after 6 games this season. As far as scenarios: My hope is that Joe Philbin makes the hard choice and starts holding individuals accountable. Nate Garner was better as a RT the last 5 games last year than Tyson Clabo has been at any point this season. That needs to be remedied, and should have been already. The nightmare scenario would be to see Ryan Tannehill get injured, Miami limps to a 5-11 or so finish, and a new front office and coaching staff come in and we STILL don't yet know what Ryan Tannehill is capable of. The realistic scenario, IMO, is that Miami fights hard and is in contention into the end of the season like last year, but misses the playoffs, and Philbin cuts bait on Sherman and Coyle and takes a more hands-on approach with the offense and defers entirely to a defensive mind to run that side of the ball (a la Sean Payton in New Orleans). After all, Tony Sparano went through 2 OL coaches, 2 offensive coordinators, and 2 defensive coordinators before he got the axe. The best cast scenario, IMO, is that Miami rebounds and gets to 9-7 or 10-6 and gets into the playoffs; that would be considered a successful season in my book. I think the realistic scenario is most likely. For now.
Beginning of the season.... optimist. Middle of the season.... pessimist. End of season...... realist. The three stages of being a Dolphins fan.
Optimist... I admit it. I love the Phins, and generally will find positive in just about anything they do. Im frustrated now, because, outside of abysmal line play I think we are as good as any team in the AFC East this season. If we can beat NE....in NE, I really think that can springboard us forward in the season, much more then yesterdays loss set us back. But losing in NE, magnifies yesterdays loss even more. I hope they come out pissed is all I can say.
I don't know if I'm a realist or a pessimist but I know I'm damned tired of the same old crap from this damned team year after year. Every dog has their day but the Lions, the Browns and the Dolphins seem stuck in a cycle that takes them from mediocrity to suckitude with occasional visits to the playoffs that only serve as cruel teases.
Somewhere between the realist and a pessimist I guess. More accurately, I think The Chump would be where I would end up.
I expect the worst, hope for the best. I've found that's what makes me happiest as a fan. I guess that would make me a pessimist? When I'm here discussing why the Dolphins are winning or losing I'd like to believe I'm being a realist.
Pessimist for sure. I enjoy this team because they are pass happy, that's a good thing imo. I also like this team because there is a passing system, and it's noticeable and steady on game day. For that reason I support the coaching staff. I don't think we have a QB for that tho. I am pessimistic about this QB.
Haha. This is a great thread. I'd say I'm a pessimist. I want to say I'm a realist, but I'm not. I clearly allow emotions to play into my thoughts on the team. I'm not on the Tannehill isn't the answer train. I just hate this Mark Sanchez turnover highlight he's been on to start the year. We've brought in talent like Dansby, Marshall, Wallace, Wheeler, Ellerbe, Bush, Grimes, Wake, etc. via trade or FA. Some have been better before they came here. Some have been the same player. Some have left as a better player than they were here. Why is that we're never capable of making a player better during their tenure here? The one guy that comes to mind is Randy Starks. Why is it that in 5 straight years, some with more talent than others, we've been unable to make the playoffs? Keep in mind, I'm a pessimist, haha. Who is to blame for not being able to utilize the talent to make the playoffs? We've now gone through two coaching changes, 3 OC/DC, 2 GM's (if you count Parcells as one), multiple player and scheme changes. Yet, it's all the same. It literally is the same damned thing.
I also like to expect the worst and hope for the best its a more enjoyable feeling when teams exceed your expectations. But ultimately I'm a realest but an instinctive realest where I do take instinctual intuition in account over stats..at times..for instance I believe at atmosphere of losing can transcend talent to some degree where even when you spend like crazy and bring in top draft picks or free agents and still lose. Its called the culture of losing. Detroit lions have that browns..in the mlb the cubs suffer from that. The clippers in the NBA who despite having two superstars still don't feel like viable contenders. Is Miami becoming a losing atmosphere in the NFL? Not yet but as more and more teams bring back Lombardi the fish slowly will get that stigma that no matter what moves they make they are destined to fail...maybe in 25 years they'll call it the curse of flipper or something. That creeps into your brain and you think who cares if they replace Clabo either the next guy will be as bad or a horrific injury besets another player offsetting any hope. Then I'm back to identifying Jeff Ireland as the primary culprit and seeing that he has been bad since his scout days in Dallas. That's the thing you have to pass the eye test not just the stat test as a realest. You can manipulate stats to make any player look okay or another opponent weaker but on the field you say well why does he make so many turnovers or why does he have so many tackles yet he seems to give up every back breaking first down or touchdown catch. In my rant in soapbox I explained as a realest the fish will beat the patties next week 36-27. That is an undeniable fact due to a mystical thing called ebb and flow and as a realest you don't come on and gloat and say seeeeeee we are better than everyone cause the Pats will still win the division or maybe the Jets slip into a division title but you know after seeing the garbage Ireland throes on us that ultimately we will be almost good enough but not quite. Thus the life of a realest mired in such so-so reality. Waiting to enjoy the high of championship but content in the knowing that it might never happen in your lifetime...or as long as Jeff Ireland is the GM...quietly I lead the chant...Fire Jeff!
I'd say I'm more optimistic than pessimistic. It's hard to call yourself a realist because you really never know how things turn out. I doubt any realists thought the Chiefs would be 7-0 at the beginning of the season, for example. I'm expecting an 8-8 season (I originally said 9-7/8-8 in that prediction thread) but I think/hope we can go 10-6.
I'm a pessimistic realist. I just don't believe in the brain trust we have but I believe in the talent on the team. I'd like to believe that Tannehill, Dion Jordan, Lamar Miller, Jamar Taylor, Will Davis, Mike Wallace, and Cam Wake can get us to the playoffs, but I don't believe we have the coaching to make the most of what we have. We need Billicheck and I believe Philbin & Sherman will be schooled by Billicheck and Co and not give our guys the best chance to succeed.
Definitely all three. Optimist - The entire offseason. Wednesday through Sunday at kickoff. Example: "They'll get 'em next week when Wake gets back." Realist - Monday morning through Tuesday evening. I tend to get real when looking at all the other messed up stuff that has happened around the league. Example: "At least no one went down for the year." Pessimist - Sunday from 5 minutes after kickoff through Sunday evening. Example: "They won the first three games and will be lucky to take three from the next thirteen."
I am a realist with optimist leanings. I feel like we have to give RT17 better protection. I have seen glimpses of a special QB when he has time to throw. Not convinced McKinnie is any help at all. Guess we will see!
I'm a pessimist, without the Chicken Little stuff. I think our season is doomed. We are staring at 8-8 with 6-10 being a distinct possibility. I thought we'd go 11-5 after the 3-0. I like some pieces though. I think Tannehill is "the guy". I like Hartline, Gibson, Clay and hell, even Wallace. I think our skill positions are playoff caliber. I even like Lamar Miller. We have no idea what he can be at this point because... The offensive line is garbage. Pouncey's the best in the league. Incognito is a good player, you could do MUCH worse. The rest is dog ****. No depth, no talent. Our defense has some good stuff, although signing Starks, Big Paul and Grimes will be an impossible task. Love the front four and I like the depth. I think Dion Jordan will be a superstar. I'm beginning to dislike Phil Wheeler and Ellerbe just does not seem to be a true MLB. It could be worse. I have no idea what to think about the secondary. Love Grimes, I like what Patterson brings (when healthy) and Carroll has been, in my opinion, not too bad. The kids are a mystery. Chris Clemons is rubbish. Reshad Jones has been better the last two weeks after a dreadful start. I'm a pessimist who has an optimistic side. I like a lot of what we have. I just don't like a lot of other things. We need two tackles, a guard, a swing tackle, a power runner, a safety and at least one starting quality defensive tackle. Why is it, that after THIS ****ing long we still have an arm length list of crying needs? Why is it that our offensive line STILL has this many holes? Jeff Ireland. He is the reason I am pessimistic. The only worry I have is, he gets fired and a new GM comes in and wants to clean house AGAIN and start the rebuild AGAIN. This team does not need a rebuild.
