Dolphins Home vs Road Stat Trend (What To Expect For Home Opener)

So basically, expect to be better all over the place?

 

Last year Miami lead the league in endzone touchdown percentage at home.

They were pretty bad on the road.

 

I'm still looking at the stats and digesting...

...but I'd rather this thread win than your Piss on Jeff Ireland thread. Every once in a while maybe I'll just hit this thread with a "Free Dion Sims!!!" post for your benefit and to add to the count in this thread!

 

I think the team plays more loose at home, which seems to be a drawback for the defense and a boon for the offense.

 

With crowd noise away and the line (and team) having a harder time hearing on the road, I think the running game and offensive line playing better at home both make a lot of sense. For our team, if it translates from last year to this year, that's a boon. First of all, the team's obviously going to benefit from getting more big rushing plays just in the rushing game alone. But probably more impactful overall, is the effect that increase would have on our play action passing game. Given time, Tannehill has been pretty lethal, and last year, he was very good in play action (versus how he was average or below on straight shotgun snaps - at least I think I've seen those stats on different posts around the board). That'd certainly help things. In the upcoming game, if the Falcons have to worry about our run game, the Mike Wallace-in-the-intermediate-and-deep-passing-game-factor should come into play in a big way for both him deep and opening the middle of the field for Hartline, Gibson, and Clay. Also, it stands to reason that our linemen are going to benefit from being able to clearly hear their QB when audibling or just calling signals, which is why their play is improved at home v. the road. They'll get a better jump at home than on the road. Those fractions of seconds can really make a difference in helping guys like Tyson Clabo, who has been having trouble with the outside rush. He'll probably have better games at home than on the road - I'd wager that anyway.

Summarizing: a little better protection to go along with the better running game should help our play action passing game get even more big chunk plays than we've been seeing.

Of the stats presented, those two look like the biggest difference-makers for me at least in regard to the upcoming game.

 

It seems to me that the sample size you used is way too small to make any significant statistical observations as to whether home games are played better than away games. Although there is a general consensus that home games are usually easier than away games. But if we take into account the quality of teams played home versus road we can see if that contributes in any way to the stats you presented.

HOME GAMES: Raiders (4-12), Jets (6-10), Patriots (12-4), Bills (6-10), Rams (7-8-1), Titans (6-10), Seahawks (11-5), Jaguars (2-14)
Total: 54-73-1

ROAD GAMES: Texans (12-4), Cardinals (5-11), Jets (6-10), Patriots (12-4), Bills (6-10), Bengals (10-6), Colts (11-5), 49ers (11-4-1),
Total: 73- 54-1

So you can see here that overall, the teams we played on the road were actually significantly better than the ones we played at home which in turn makes our stats at home also look better. In the end, though, as I said before, the sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions.

 

I don't believe in any of those stats having anything to do with this year's team. Same staff pretty much, many of the same players, but MASSIVE changes and upgrades all around. I'll never forget Tanny getting trashed by the Texans last year. This team is much better than that game in my opinion...my optimism level is WAY higher this year.

 

Falcons were 5-1 last year on the road, at non-dome stadiums. They lost to the Panthers. Beatable, but tough as nails. Looking forward to this game.

 

The trends tell me we have no home field advantage, especially on third down defense.

 

I think our secondary left the Colts receivers pretty wide open yesterday. At times they were playing off other times they pressed. They seemed to play better when they pressed. If Grimes had not intercepted that pass and we lost, the loss would have been squarely on the secondary. If it's not Nolan nimrod I can't get out of the way of my own shadow on special teams Carroll one week it's Chris stone hands Clemmons the next. Both are weak links.

 

I agree. Carroll showed up on a few plays, so that got most thinking he had a good game, but I watched him on several other plays where he was plain out of it. I'd say he had a bad game.

 

As far as Carroll goes, I think he's an improved player, he's doing a better job staying close to his man without interfering and he's getting his head around..

I'm tellin ya right now 68, Luck is gonna average 300 yards for the year, he's gonna get his vrs everybody.

 

Hard to take stats from one year and project them into the next season.

I think we shut down the Falcons running game at home, but ST to the offense just remains to be seen.

Gonzo could be in line for a big day for example

 

300 yards is no longer a good game for QBs guys. The new "good game" is 400. Just look at how many threw for 300 or more last week. So basically you also have to adjust that when talking about defensive performance. If you hold a QB to under 300 its a fantastic game. If they get 300 on you, its an average to slightly above average game. I think our secondary played fine against Luck, who I think at the end of the year will be in the top 5 in QB fantasy points.

 

have you watched gonzales the first 2 games ? i did, he still is effective with those 3rd down catches and in the redzone, but i wouldn't be to worried about him making plays like fleener or cameron did against us, he is 37 years old and it shows bigtime, no camp and preseason for him...it shows

 

300 is still the number to hit, i havent seen a QB pass for 6400 yards in a season yet

 

No one does it game in and game out, save Brees. But I'm just not impressed with 300 passing yards these days. Not with the handcuffs the defenses are playing with.

THere are plenty of upper 4000 yard guys these days. Which is around 300 a game.

 

I think total yards in general are pretty meaningless. Wilson played a good game against SF and had under 200 yards. The key was did the QB make the plays when the team needed him to and avoid critical mistakes?

 

With Roddy White still working through his injury, we just have to watch out for J. Jones and Tony TD Gonzales. I dont think Steven Jackson has it in him with our front 7.
I also think the stadium might be sold out and our D should reap the benefits.
Good work on your analysis, though, I think the environmental variables (crowd noise) wont be as weak as they were last year.
Here's to hoping for the best(effort)!